[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 161808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161808 
INZ000-ILZ000-161945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IL INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161808Z - 161945Z

A TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LIKELY BY 19Z-20Z ACROSS EASTERN IL INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS MAY INCLUDE AN UPGRADE OF THE
NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST INDIANA PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 194.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IA...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING E/SE
ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...LARGELY PARALLEL WITH THE
INTERSTATE 74 CORRIDOR. MODERATELY AGGRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION
CONTINUES TO OCCUR IN PRESENCE OF AMPLE INSOLATION...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY ACTIVE CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY NOTED IN BOTH SOUTH
CENTRAL IL AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AT THIS TIME.
ACCORDINGLY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS
NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE BASED CINH FROM CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN THE AMBIENT WARM
SECTOR. 

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO SPREAD EASTWARD
OUT OF WESTERN IL INTO EASTERN IL/WESTERN INDIANA THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR SOMEWHAT
SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
EITHER WAY...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL STEADILY INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN CORRIDOR ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT
FROM EAST CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TEND TO REMAIN BACKED WITH SUFFICIENTLY
CURVED/ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

..GUYER.. 04/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

41328829 41288645 40498518 39348489 38808620 38998790
40078855 

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