[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Apr 16 16:00:22 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 161558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161557 
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-161800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA....SRN WI...NWRN IL...NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161557Z - 161800Z

THREAT FOR HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCREASING ACROSS NERN
IA...SWRN WI...AND PARTS OF NWRN IL LATE THIS MORNING. AREAS FROM
SCNTRL/SERN IA...EAST/SOUTHEAST TO NERN MO/WRN IL MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THESE AREAS...PROBABLY WITHIN 1-2 HOURS.

ARC OF CONVECTION WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER
CYCLONE OVER IA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE LOW WHERE STRONGER
DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING
TO OVERSPREAD LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT. GIVEN LAPSE RATES
EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND DVN...EXPECT THESE STORMS
TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL.

WHILE THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WAS LIKELY
ROOTED ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ROOT
INTO MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR SFC LOW...AND
ESEWD FROM THE SFC LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND AHEAD OF WIND
SHIFT/CONFLUENCE LINE MOVING EAST ACROSS NERN MO. DEEP LAYER
VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CAPE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT 
SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS GREATER WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES...SUGGEST WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 04/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

40418903 40088919 39618979 39189043 38899092 38769157
38779239 39579231 40229269 40589308 40819363 41319379
41949377 42359353 43139284 43339243 43529131 43649024
43198864 42708843 41958854 40888894 

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