[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Apr 11 23:00:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 112259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112258 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-120030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...SE NEB...SW IA...NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112258Z - 120030Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNDERWAY EAST OF CONCORDIA KS INTO THE
BEATRICE NEB AREA...WHERE 80 KT 500 MB JET STREAK IS ENHANCING
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
SURFACE FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS HAS BECOME
FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S AS DEW POINTS CLIMBED TO NEAR 50F.
 THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING CAPE AROUND 750 J/KG AS CAP IS
BROKEN.

INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS AS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE
IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN
DRY...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROBABLY WILL ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFTS...AND DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH BELT
OF 40 TO 50 KT MEAN CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET.
 ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH BY 02-03Z AS
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE.

..KERR.. 04/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

40719629 41319578 41869565 42519523 42539423 41759382
40659474 39909535 39399609 39039673 39199713 39879704 

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