[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Apr 10 22:51:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 102249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102249 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-110015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT MON APR 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102249Z - 110015Z

VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTH OF REDIG SD.  THIS
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN AIDED BY MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES HAVE BECOME FOCUSED NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS
PROGGED TO MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY 02-03Z.

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY
IN THE LOWER 40S...RUC INDICATES MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FOR HEATED
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG.  EMBEDDED WITHIN
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
ROTATION...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING
OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...HOWEVER...MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS IN DRY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..KERR.. 04/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

45880421 46660404 47040378 47380278 46850146 46130175
45000217 44500175 43830229 43960328 44570374 44920392 

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