[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 091430
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091430 
FLZ000-091630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0930 AM CDT SUN APR 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091430Z - 091630Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF S FL WITHIN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS.

LATE THIS MORNING A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S
CNTRL FL FROM S OF VERO BEACH SWWD TO NEAR FORT MYERS. RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THE 12Z RAOB FROM MIAMI SHOWS STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS ANVIL
CIRRUS DISSIPATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED. THE 
WEAK CAP...DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING...PRESENCE OF SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AMBIENT LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH 2 KM IS QUITE WEAK AND KINEMATIC PROFILES THROUGH A DEEPER
LAYER ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 04/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

25938015 25338048 25258092 26278145 26828111 27108030
26848006 

WWWW