[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 8 23:01:30 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 082300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082259 
FLZ000-GAZ000-090030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL INTO N CNTRL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 174...176...

VALID 082259Z - 090030Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW.  ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY
DEVELOP INTO NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA AREAS SOUTH OF WW 174 SHORTLY. 
HOWEVER...RISK MAY REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
AN ADDITIONAL WW...AS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AWAY
FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

TONGUE OF 70F+ DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER MOIST RETURN FLOW
IS READILY EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  THIS EXTENDS THROUGH AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND INTO SOUTHWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SOUTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES TO AID VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OUTFLOW...AND IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS JACKSONVILLE AND THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN NOW AND 00-01Z...WITH SEVERE THREAT
DIMINISHING TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY.  GUSTY WINDS/LARGE HAIL MAY
CONTINUE IN STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...AND IN NEW
DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ALONG EASTERN GULF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT
ZONE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO COASTAL AREAS FROM NEAR CEDAR
KEY THROUGH THE TAMPA AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..KERR.. 04/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29428446 29858439 30848355 31108253 31168182 31188136
30848074 30138092 29568151 29048189 28618237 28168339
28318395 28778409 29118403 

WWWW