[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 081739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081738 
NCZ000-081945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081738Z - 081945Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH BOWS. AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR
ELIZABETH CITY SWWD THROUGH ERN SC. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXISTS W OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN NC FROM NEAR ROCKY MOUNT SWWD
TO JUST E OF FLORENCE IN ERN SC. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE BOUNDARIES IS DESTABILIZING WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INITIATION
APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR COASTAL NC WHERE
CONVERGENCE COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS.

..DIAL.. 04/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

34327765 34027828 33997867 34277870 34807814 35597741
36307672 36287594 35477584 

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