[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 072238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072238 
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-080015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072238Z - 080015Z

POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW
166 BY 23Z.  SHOULD ONGOING STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...A WW
MAY BE REQUIRED.

TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT A COLD POOL MAY BE
ORGANIZING WITH ONGOING LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NE OF SSU TO W
OF BLF.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER CNTRL VA REMAINS QUITE WARM EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.  ASSOCIATED
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD
CONDITIONS /I.E. TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 30-40 DEGREES F/
SUGGEST THAT THIS COLD POOL MAY BE MAINTAINED E OF WW 166 WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE DURATION OF THIS THREAT OWING TO THE FACT
THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL BEGIN TO COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A RESULTANT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED PRIOR TO AIR MASS
STABILIZING.  HOWEVER...IF IT APPEARS THAT A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP E OF WW AREA...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 04/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

38577933 38817877 38597776 37477788 36677825 36537882
36697958 

WWWW