[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 7 21:01:06 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 072057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072057 
VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-INZ000-072230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN OH/ERN KY/ERN TN/WRN WV/FAR WRN
VA/FAR WRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 072057Z - 072230Z

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES...
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN/SRN PARTS
OF WW 165.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ENEWD INTO WRN OH
AND ERN KY WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDED SWD INTO ERN TN WITH STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS OVER MIDDLE TN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SRN PART OF WW 165
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AREA WSR-88D VADS INDICATED UNI-
DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.  STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN PART OF WW 165 WHERE THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST.

FARTHER NE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OH...STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN DOWNWARD MIXING OF DRY AIR AND AT LEAST 30 DEGREE
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.  STORMS MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN WV INTO NRN VA/WRN MD...30-50 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS.  AIR MASS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO LIMIT
SEVERE THREAT EAST OF WW 165...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..PETERS.. 04/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...

35128555 36788510 40648484 40648157 39808066 39417788
38577818 36878108 36428171 34948315 