[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 071724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071723 
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-071930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND...THROUGH W CNTRL OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071723Z - 071930Z

PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS AND LINES APPEAR LIKELY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE WLY...THE
RICHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF THIS AREA. THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...AND TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN. NEVERTHELESS...SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR S OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN
OH WWD THROUGH NRN IND AND NRN IL. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. LARGELY WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO LINES OR
CLUSTERS. WITH THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF
THIS REGION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE PRIMARY
THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

..DIAL.. 04/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

39358373 38678827 38828993 39798993 40518892 40818728
41178564 40478343 

WWWW