[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 7 03:23:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 070322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070321 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO / NW AND N-CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...159...

VALID 070321Z - 070445Z

THROUGH 0430Z...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST FROM
HRO TO W OF RUE EWD TO E OF UNO SWD TO LIT.  ISOLATED
TORNADOES...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

AS OF 03Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS FROM BOONE COUNTY AR SWWD TO SCOTT COUNTY AR MOVING
245/40-50 KTS. EMBEDDED CELLS OVER BOONE AND LOGAN/YELL COUNTIES
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MESOCYCLONES WITH REFLECTIVITY DATA
SUGGESTING HP SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.

LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS THE
NWRN QUARTER OF AR IS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500
M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 65-75 KTS.  PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS
WHETHER THESE STORMS ARE TRULY SURFACE-BASED OR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
ABOVE A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.  RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...GROUND CLUSTER SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON LIT 88D AND RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ELEVATED TO
SOME DEGREE WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT A GREATER TORNADO THREAT. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEPTH
OF THIS INVERSION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES STILL
EXISTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER TO THE N IN MO...COMPARATIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
BE LIMITING STORM INTENSITY.  SHOULD CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...AN
ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS E-CNTRL AND PARTS OF SERN MO.
 HOWEVER...A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER NERN AR PERHAPS INTO FAR SERN MO.

..MEAD.. 04/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

38849490 38819167 34639137 34719462 

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