[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 7 00:55:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 070054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070053 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-070230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...157...

VALID 070053Z - 070230Z

...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WITH DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN OK....

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELL TSTMS EXTENDING FROM
FAR SE KS TO SE OK. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STORM ROTATION...WITH 0-1 SRH NEAR 400 M2/S2. HASKELL OK PROFILER
AND VAD DATA FROM BOTH TULSA AND FORT SMITH SHOW VERY IMPRESSIVE
DIRECTION/SPEED SHEAR WITH 50 KT OBSERVED NEAR 1 KM. LAMONT AND
PURCELL PROFILER DATA ALSO SHOW 100KT DOWN TO 3KM...INDICATING THE
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING JET STREAK.
SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED BRIEF
TORNADOES...INCLUDING A RECENT REPORT OF A TORNADO WEST OF EUFAULA
DAM IN HASKELL CO JUST BEFORE 730PM. STORM SIGNATURES DO INDICATE
THAT STORMS ARE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE EXTREME SHEAR. 

HOWEVER...THE STORMS /BY MAINTAINING SOME SPACE BETWEEN CELLS/ ARE
NOT DESTRUCTIVELY INTERFERING...WHICH DOES INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR. AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ACROSS NW AR...BUT MOISTURE IS
RAPIDLY RETURNING IN A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FASHION. STRENGTH OF SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF WW 157 /INTO NRN
AND WRN AR/ THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.

..TAYLOR.. 04/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

33789476 33839619 35609549 36979517 36929403 35429388
34569387 

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