[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 6 16:20:33 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 061619
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061619 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-061715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/ERN MO/MUCH OF CENTRAL-SRN IL/FAR SWRN
IND/FAR WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061619Z - 061715Z

ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
SERN IA SEWD THROUGH ERN MO/MUCH OF CENTRAL-SRN IL INTO FAR SWRN IND
AND FAR WRN KY.

LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LOCATED
OVER ERN NEB...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SWRN IA/NRN
TO ERN MO AROUND STL..AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO FAR SRN IND. 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM CENTRAL MO /BOONE COUNTY/ INTO
NRN AR.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL KS/OK WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS TO THE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THIS MID
LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS TODAY.

SPECIAL 15Z SOUNDING AT SGF CONTINUED TO INDICATE A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT OVER MO...BUT THE AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED. 15Z RUC
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA SUGGEST STORMS ARE ROOTED
AROUND 850 MB WITH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED ROTATING
STORMS.  WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONGER
CORES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES INDICATED A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
HAIL...LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS AT TIMES.

..PETERS.. 04/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

40639240 41659279 41989165 41799039 40608889 39848761
38408698 36838743 36628864 36728976 37889107 39269164 

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