[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021915 
ARZ000-MOZ000-022045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021915Z - 022045Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  A NEW WW
MAY BE NEEDED BY AROUND 21Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 60S DEW POINTS IS NOW
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.  THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE
INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG.  INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN
BASE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THE
PRESENT TIME...BUT IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT AS
IMMINENT AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...MODELS
SUGGEST EROSION OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING. THIS
MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.  

STRONG SHEAR NEAR 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST IN STRONGER
CELLS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  TORNADO POTENTIAL
COULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY SPREADS FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...WHERE SURFACE FLOW MAY MAINTAIN A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND LARGER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

..KERR.. 04/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...

35569341 36029307 36339245 36519155 36309097 35839067
35009070 34529099 33819118 33219219 33099276 33209379
33769402 34459416 34979381 

WWWW