[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021814 
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-021945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED......PARTS OF NE MS/NRN AL AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO
PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021814Z - 021945Z

TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME...
SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN TO SHIFT AWAY FROM
SUPPORTING STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  HOWEVER...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF
ACTIVITY INTO RETREATING WARM FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND SUSCEPTIBLE
TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  AS CLUSTER SPREADS INTO
EXTREME NORTHERN ALABAMA/MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 20-21Z...THIS MAY OCCUR
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL. GIVEN LIKELY
CONTINUED EAST NORTHEAST MOTION OF 40+ KT...TENDENCY FOR STRONG
SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS MAY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 04/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

35838823 36588764 37268540 36998431 36468407 35668430
35348481 34918552 34638617 34448722 34418761 35008835 

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