[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 1 16:07:48 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 011607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011606 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-011800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST SAT APR 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR...NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011606Z - 011800Z

A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR POSSIBILITY OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

A STRONGER RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/
EASTERN PLAINS IS BECOMING JUXTAPOSED WITH ZONE OF STRONGER LOW/MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN WAKE OF LARGE NORTHEASTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH...AND AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR RECENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AS INHIBITION WEAKENS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH A RATHER BROAD AREA OF EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THOUGH...IN GENERAL...FLOW FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SHEAR SEEMS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. 
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH
INITIAL STORMS...AND THIS THREAT COULD INCREASE AS ACTIVITY BECOMES
INCREASING SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN PRESENCE OF DRY
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUED HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING RISK OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS BY PEAK
HEATING.

MOST CONVECTION LIKELY WILL REMAIN RATHER UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH
BROADER SCALE RIDGE COULD AID THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY 21Z.

..KERR.. 04/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

35789620 36249569 36019416 35659271 35399165 34739115
33979121 33249281 33259393 33629499 33889552 34679610
34869614 

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