[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 291917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291916 
NMZ000-COZ000-292045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291916Z - 292045Z

ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY INCREASE ACROSS
PARTS OF NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.

COMPACT REGION OF STRONG QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WAS SPREADING ESEWD FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER NM AND CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS.
DESPITE LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION...STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR
COULD SUSTAIN A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORM UPDRAFTS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW FREEZING LEVELS. MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

..CARBIN.. 09/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

35770895 36740804 36980712 37050560 36630475 36090421
35370417 34880475 34530550 34140634 33870693 33680749
33570835 33770879 

WWWW