[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Sep 28 21:53:00 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 282151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282151 
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-282315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/CENTRAL AND NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 282151Z - 282315Z

LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL
MO/NWRN AR.  WE ARE MONITORING SEVERE THREAT DOWNSTREAM -- E OF WW
822 AND W OF THE MS RIVER -- AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR NEW WW 
ISSUANCE.

LATEST SURFACE AND INSTABILITY DATA INDICATES DRIER/MORE STABLE
AIRMASS WITH EWD EXTENT TOWARD THE MS RIVER. 
ADDITIONALLY...RUC/NAMKF PFCS INDICATE A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER --
CONSISTENT WITH SHALLOW/STRATUS-TYPE CLOUD DECK APPARENT AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE LINE.

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING INVOF FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ELIMINATE
CAP...LESS MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME LESS VIGOROUS WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY. 
HOWEVER...WITH LATEST SPRINGFIELD MO WSR-88D VWP SHOWING NEAR 50 KT
WLY FLOW IN THE 3 TO 6 KM LAYER...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
CONVECTIVE LINE MAY PERSIST E OF WW DESPITE DECREASING INSTABILITY. 
THIS MAY REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.

..GOSS.. 09/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

37969114 37939023 37258948 36148973 34739092 34619248
34669345 

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