[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 252042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252042 
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 252042Z - 252215Z

...THERE IS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND WITH STORMS NOW
FORMING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN IN CNTRL/ERN WY. 

UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL WY WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EWD THIS AFTN INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY EARLY EVENING.  LARGE
SCALE FORCING IS BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM ASSOCIATED
WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...STEEP
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. PROFILER DATA FROM
MEDICINE BOW WY SUGGEST STRONG MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 60-70 KT. 

MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT THE
OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.

..TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...

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