[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Sep 25 20:25:33 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 252024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252024 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-252200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB/NE KS/SRN IA/NRN MO/WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 252024Z - 252200Z

...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KS/SRN IA/SERN NEB...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED BOUNDARY...THE REMNANTS OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...EXTENDING
FROM SERN NEB INTO SRN IA. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL ZONE IS LOCATED FROM
SERN NEB INTO CNTRL KS/NW OK. DEEPER MIXING IS OCCURRING NEAR THE IA
BOUNDARY WITH AN AGITATED ZONE OF CUMULUS NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY.
HOWEVER THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
AOA 1500 J/KG. 

MODIFIED SOUNDING 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING INDICATES CAP IS WEAKENING
ACROSS NE KS AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL MIXING ALONG FRONTAL ZONES COMBINED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY YIELD SFC BASED TSTMS WITHIN 2-3 HOURS. IF STORMS
FORM...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS INDICATED ON
AREA PROFILERS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL
THE GREATEST THREAT.

..TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

39989050 38919753 39559807 40799714 41229273 41389052
40778991 

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