[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140213 
MIZ000-140345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI...ERN U.P OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 787...

VALID 140213Z - 140345Z

THREAT FOR SVR WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CONVECTIVE LINE
AS IT MOVES NEWD OUT OF WW 787 INTO NERN LOWER MI AND THE ERN U.P OF
MI IN THE NEXT HOUR. GIVEN LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL THREAT ALONG
WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED...A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM OF WW
787 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 

RECENT SFC ASOS OBS ACROSS NWRN LOWER MI INDICATE THAT WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE LINE WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. FORWARD LINE
MOTION REMAINS RELATIVELY FAST...WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
AROUND 40 KT MOVEMENT. GIVEN DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NOTED 0N
RECENT IR IMAGERY...THE OVERALL SVR WIND THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES OUT OF WW 787
INTO NERN LOWER MI AND ERN U.P OF MI. GIVEN ANTICIPATED LINE MOTION
CONTINUING NEAR CURRENT SPEED...THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER IN WW 787
SHOULD BE OVER BY 03Z. THUS WW 787 SHOULD BE CANCELLED AROUND THAT
TIME.

..CROSBIE.. 09/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...

46518432 46518504 45728522 45108510 44568505 44278449
44328347 44628285 45178281 45908352 

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