[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131917 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-132145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / WRN MO / NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131917Z - 132145Z

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 21Z.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER FAR ERN KS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD 
AND IS MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE AS OF 19Z. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES EWD INTO WRN MO.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE POTENT STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER
W...IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE
STRONGER NEAR THE FRONT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND EVEN 
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WITH NLY SURFACE FLOW PROVIDING LONGER 0-1 KM SHEAR VECTORS.
THE PROBLEM FOR TORNADOES WILL BE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES W OF
THE FRONT...UNDERNEATH A CAPPING INVERSION AS WELL AS RESIDENCE TIME
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WINDOW FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY APPEARS
BRIEF. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..JEWELL.. 09/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

36509529 36239682 36569784 37739784 38569788 39259674
39389583 38639307 37069341 36759382 

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