[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131619 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-131815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN IA/SERN MN/SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131619Z - 131815Z

SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION.  WW
MAY BE REQUIRED BY 13/18Z.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN IA INTO ADJACENT SERN MN AND SWRN
WI...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY MSP SSWWD TO NEAR
MHK.  WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THIS
REGION...CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS
WILL OCCUR.  

THOUGH MORNING RAOBS INDICATE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN THE 800 TO
700 MB LAYER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UVV INVOF FRONT/LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES -- ENHANCED BY WEAK VORT MAX MOVING EWD ATTM
ACROSS ERN NEB -- SHOULD COMBINE WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING TO WEAKEN CAP. THEREFORE...EXPECT SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND/OR EVOLVE FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS
THE MO/IA BORDER...AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN IA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF SERN MN/SWRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  

WITH AREA PROFILERS INDICATING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 50 KT ABOVE
SSWLYS AT LOW LEVELS...WEAK DIRECTIONAL AND MODERATE SPEED SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELL STORMS AND/OR SMALL-SCALE LINES. 
THEREFORE...AS ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
INCREASES...WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 09/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

44319294 44569128 43778987 42489010 40989213 41099417
41409500 43089450 

WWWW