[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122220 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...WRN KS

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 122220Z - 130015Z

...A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND
DEEPENING WLY FLOW HAVE FORCED DRYLINE EWD TO A POSITION EXTENDING
FROM PHILLIPS COUNTY KS...SSWWD TO NEAR LBB IN THE TX PANHANDLE. 
NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM ARE SUPPORTING
STRONG THERMALS ALONG A FAIRLY FOCUSED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE.
 IT APPEARS DEEPENING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...VERY WARM PROFILES INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY HAIL
GENERATED WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL IN SIZE.  UPDRAFT
ENTRAINMENT ALONG N-S ORIENTED PORTION OF THE DRYLINE WILL KEEP
ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN KS AND THE OK
PANHANDLE.

..DARROW.. 09/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

33750257 36090082 38710005 38819877 35999944 33550067 

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