From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 21:19:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 16:19:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509012238.j81McTKM023695@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012236 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...FAR SE CO...WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012236Z - 020030Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LAST A FEW MORE HOURS WITH THE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS NRN NM WITH THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN NM. MUCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE IN ERN NM WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT SHOULD LAST A FEW MORE HOURS AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS NE NM. ..BROYLES.. 09/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37150471 35210556 34490537 34680418 35110333 37160251 37530291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 21:43:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 16:43:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509012300.j81N0skk001470@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012259 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-020100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012259Z - 020100Z A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SRN KS AND NW OK AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EWD. THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SERN CO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING ASCENT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN KS (MUCAPE > 1500 J/KG) SHOULD RESULT IN A MULTICELL SEVERE THREAT. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. IF AN MCS DEVELOPS...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ..BROYLES.. 09/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 38369831 37849783 37399769 36599824 36279968 36320100 36900143 37750129 38290027 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 23:08:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 18:08:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509030025.j830PmcY024304@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030025 SDZ000-NDZ000-030130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-SRN ND AND NWRN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030025Z - 030130Z ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN ND AND NWRN SD THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE SE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS/GRADIENT INTO FAR SRN ND AND CENTRAL SD. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE LEE TROUGH AND RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER FAR SWRN ND /BOWMAN COUNTY/. THE AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL SD IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/ AND 35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AND THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORMS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER ERN MT...WITH ADDITIONAL ASCENT FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...IF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASES...THEN A WW WOULD BE REQUIRED. ..PETERS.. 09/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45650364 46330344 46580271 46220074 45479929 44399861 43509877 43269941 43750068 44520194 44720347 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 07:44:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 02:44:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509030902.j8392BfH025987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030900 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-031130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN ND...NERN SD...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MN. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030900Z - 031130Z TREND TOWARD INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WITH MOST INTENSE CORES PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER NWRN SD...WARM FRONT ARCHING EWD THEN SEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN SD. STRONG PATTERN OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT -- N OF WARM FRONT -- WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT PARCELS TO LFC AMIDST INCREASINGLY MOIST AND BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT ATOP RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO OVER 8 DEG C/KM AS LAYER NEAR 850 MB MOISTENS...YIELDING ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG. RUC ISENTROPIC PROGS INDICATE STRONGEST LIFT MAY EXTEND EWD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/WRN MN THROUGH 12Z...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION THERE AS WELL. MOST-UNSTABLE EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR PROFILES OF 40-50 KT INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS TO ROTATE IN MIDLEVELS...ENHANCING UPDRAFTS STRENGTH AND HAIL PRODUCTION POTENTIAL. 15-20 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IS EVIDENT FOR SLOW MOVING CONVECTION SUCH AS THAT PRESENTLY INDICATED OVER SERN ND NEAR 850 MB WARM FRONT. ..EDWARDS.. 09/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45049946 45419998 46280018 47580003 47959906 48039777 47779698 46739572 45659580 45109781 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 17:24:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 12:24:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509031841.j83IfbIk022133@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031840 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-032015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN MN...EXTREME SERN ND AND EXTREME NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031840Z - 032015Z ELEVATED TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL MN IN WAKE OF A DECAYING MCS. IF CELLS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST PROFILERS/VWP INDICATE THAT THE SWLY H95-H85 LLJ HAS REMAINED SITUATED FROM CNTRL PLAINS TO ERN SD. NOSE OF THIS JET WAS BLOWING NORMAL TO A NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN SD AND SWRN MN. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PARCELS FEEDING THE DEVELOPING TSTMS EMANATE FROM A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE CAPES/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN SD WHERE MUCAPES WERE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. AS THESE PARCELS REACH LFC NE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER AOA 40 KTS WILL LIKELY FURTHER STRENGTHEN UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL RESULT. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN LLJ ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS AND GENERALLY WEAK SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR TSTMS TO BACKBUILD AND TRAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. BUT...LONGEVITY OF THE LLJ GEOMETRY W.R.T. BOUNDARIES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH SWRN MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR W TSTMS WILL DEVELOP GIVEN THE STOUT CAP ACROSS THE ERN DAKS PER 18Z TANDAR SOUNDINGS FROM KABR. ..RACY.. 09/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 44989336 44449316 44149344 43979428 44099525 44519626 45359724 45839764 46719754 46529634 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 20:55:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 15:55:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509032212.j83MCWGm008952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032211 WIZ000-MNZ000-032315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 764... VALID 032211Z - 032315Z SEVERE TSTMS WILL CROSS PARTS OF LE SUEUR...SCOTT...RICE...AND DAKOTA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS MATURE MCS MOVES SEWD AT 40KT. RECENT DOWNWARD TREND IN VIL INTENSITY MAY BE OCCURRING ACROSS SERN MN WHERE STORM COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO OUTRUN STRONGER INFLOW ACROSS WCNTRL MN. WHILE THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL WILL SPREAD OUT OF SERN PARTS OF WW 764 BEFORE 2330Z. AREAS OF SERN MN/WRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IF IT APPEARS THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. AREAS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE MCS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CU WERE BUILDING ACROSS SWRN MN AND ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY. ..CARBIN.. 09/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 43889304 44759626 46479629 45519291 45419267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 22:31:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 17:31:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509032349.j83NnI6g007187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032346 MNZ000-040115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 764... VALID 032346Z - 040115Z WW 764 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SRN MN. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE OVER PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL MN THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR WAS BEING DIRECTED ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESULTING IN NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER DOUGLAS... POPE...AND STERNS COUNTIES IN SCNTRL MN. SHEAR AND FORCING WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SMALL MCS TO EVOLVE LATER THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AS IT SPREADS SEWD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD MOVE INTO THE SAME AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED BY EARLIER STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 09/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 46439614 45549301 43829298 44759621  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 23:39:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 18:39:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509040056.j840uZ9s027234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040054 SDZ000-NDZ000-040230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD/SRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040054Z - 040230Z TSTM MOVING EAST ACROSS CORSON COUNTY SD MAY PERSIST AND POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. IF STORMS CAN TAKE ROOT IN THIS REGION...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER INVOF DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...AND A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS WRN SD...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NCNTRL SD. THIS LONE CELL WAS TRACKING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE VERY STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AS IT TAPS GREATER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN SD. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...MAY OVERCOME MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED IF TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 09/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45370053 45650126 46230105 46279902 46049758 45729697 45179671 44769672 45180009  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 03:01:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 22:01:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509040419.j844JCu7029155@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040418 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-040545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WRN WI...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 766... VALID 040418Z - 040545Z A SEVERE MCS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE MAINTAINED INTO NRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS VEERING LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTES STRONG ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ON THE EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION/INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH OF WW 766. MCS HAS MATURED AND ACQUIRED A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SRN/SERN MN. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE STILL EVIDENT AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION BUT A MESOSCALE BOWING STRUCTURE NOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS WASECA...STEELE...AND DODGE COUNTIES IN SERN MN. CLASSIC SUMMER MCS PATTERN PERSISTS OVER SRN MN WITH PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OCCURRING BETWEEN LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FLOWS...AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FUELING REGENERATIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. MCS MOTION AS A RESULT OF STEERING FLOW AND PROPAGATION IS ALMOST DUE SOUTH WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO PARTS OF NRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 09/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 42819097 42669228 42689394 42989532 44759617 46459617 44569076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 05:56:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 00:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509040713.j847DnBW015031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040712 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-040915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...SWRN WI...N-CENTRAL/NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 766... VALID 040712Z - 040915Z ORIGINAL MCS HAS BECOME MARKEDLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND WEAKENED WHILE MOVING LARGELY S OF WW AREA INTO N-CENTRAL IA. LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP RESULTANT STABLE OUTFLOW LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN MN INCLUDING MSP AREA. THERE WAS NO 00Z MPX RAOB AVAILABLE FOR MODIFICATION...HOWEVER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDING INDICATE ACTIVITY IS ROOTED AROUND 700 MB LEVEL WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...USING MU LIFTED LAYER AS BASELINE. WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNDER AND SE OF THIS ACTIVITY FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. FARTHER W...OUTFLOW IS SHALLOWER WITH WEAKER LIFT INDICATED...DECREASING PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRESSIVELY WWD FROM AN ULM-STC LINE. SOME HAIL POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE BEYOND SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF WW. WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR INDIVIDUAL COUNTIES IN SUCH AN EVENT. HOWEVER...PRIND THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LOCALIZED/ MARGINAL THAT BULK OF WW CAN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..EDWARDS.. 09/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 42879078 44749627 46499625 44619079 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 21:15:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 16:15:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509042233.j84MXGVw003582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042232 MTZ000-050030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042232Z - 050030Z PARTS OF CNTRL MT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING AS MID/UPR LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF HIGH-BASED TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG CELL WAS MOVING INTO FERGUS COUNTY. FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STORMS. SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS SWRN ID WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTENING ATOP A RELATIVELY WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 40F. IN ADDITION TO HIGH DCAPE VALUES SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND AID UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE/INTENSITY AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. RESULTING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL MAY FURTHER ORGANIZE LATER THIS EVENING AS LEE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL MT. REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A WATCH COULD BE ISSUED IF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN OR WIDESPREAD. ..CARBIN.. 09/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 46630899 45251073 45241218 46001174 46691187 47731105 48510902 47960803 47030784 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 00:15:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 19:15:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509050132.j851WW7W004558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050131 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-050300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050131Z - 050300Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN ND AND SD. APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL...MORE THAN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE FOR VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS. FURTHERMORE...SHEAR AND MASS INFLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX SPREADS EAST AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45649776 44490002 44800023 45770012 46329995 47289971 48939949 48919733 47839686 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 03:37:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 22:37:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509050454.j854sYdl021472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050453 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND...SD...MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 767... VALID 050453Z - 050630Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN WW 767 ATTM. STRONG LLJ AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS ND WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48949890 48929550 44719676 44720007 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 06:15:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 01:15:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509050732.j857WU0Q006314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050731 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN ND...NERN SD...NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL MN. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 767... VALID 050731Z - 050930Z BULK OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9Z. MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL N OF BORDER ACROSS SERN MB...LEAVING BEHIND RELATIVELY STABLE OUTFLOW POOL ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS ORIGINAL WW THAT HAS LESSENED SEVERE POTENTIAL THERE. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING INVOF JMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF MOST FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO FILL INVOF MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. 00Z RAOBS...LAST FEW HOURS OF VWP DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE REGIME OF WEAKENING/BACKING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS ABOVE LLJ. THIS KINEMATIC PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINEAR MODE FOR CONVECTION MOVING INTO WRN MN...WITH ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES BECAUSE OF WEAKER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY. STILL...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 12Z...SUPPORTED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MOIST/40-50 KT LLJ...AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. CELLS WITHIN LINE MAY BRIEFLY PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS FOR HAIL...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK DOES NOT APPEAR ATTM TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WW FARTHER E ACROSS MORE OF NRN/WRN MN. ..EDWARDS.. 09/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 44739675 44709998 48969892 48979544 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 19:03:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 14:03:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509052020.j85KKYa2009266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052019 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-052145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052019Z - 052145Z INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER W CENTRAL SD...WITH A SLOWLY RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS N CENTRAL SD/ERN ND. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE...WITH 80S TO NEAR 90 TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS YIELDING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. HOWEVER...AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MORNING ABR /ABERDEEN SD/ RAOB DEPICTING STRONG INVERSION NEAR 800 MB. NONETHELESS...CONVECTION NOW IN BARNES/GRIGGS COUNTIES IN ND -- THOUGH LIKELY STILL ELEVATED -- HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR AS UVV ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL VORT MAX SPREADS ACROSS THIS REGION. CONTINUED ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER WEAKENING OF CAP...AND ATTM WOULD EXPECT SOME SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY 05/22-23Z. ASSUMING STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE/VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WHICH WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 09/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48639726 48599535 47139514 44699707 44559873 45009973 46829832 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 20:28:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 15:28:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509052145.j85Ljiuh023242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052144 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-052245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE...KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052144Z - 052245Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL NEB AND NRN KS. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 42980003 42829738 38669868 38700134 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 22:57:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 17:57:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509060014.j860EXOT022133@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060013 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0713 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN/NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 768...770... VALID 060013Z - 060215Z SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS ERN ND...NERN SD...AND WRN/NWRN MN THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 40-50KT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS BEING LIFTED INTO A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD INTENSE TSTMS. A BOW ECHO TRACKING NEWD AT OVER 40KT ACROSS SARGENT COUNTY ND WILL MOVE ACROSS RICHLAND COUNTY ND AND INTO WILKIN COUNTY MN BETWEEN 0030 AND 0100 UTC. FARTHER NORTH...A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS EXTENDS FROM RED LAKE AND POLK COUNTIES IN NWRN MN SWWD TO CASS AND RANSOM COUNTIES IN SERN ND. SUPERCELL IN CNTRL CASS COUNTY ATTM APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH SFC LOW ON A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS WRN MN. OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH SEVERE WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CLEARWATER...MAHNOMEN...CLAY...AND BECKER COUNTIES IN WRN MN. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 43099656 43029944 45829879 45929895 48959790 48909444 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 23:14:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 18:14:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509060031.j860VOAS029331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060030 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-060200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB/NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769... VALID 060030Z - 060200Z ...CONTINUED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND GUSTS/HAIL... BEST AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN EXTENT OF MANITOBA SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS SCNTRL NEB...WHERE MOST OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. THERE ARE SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A WWD MOVING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS WRN KS. THIS HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO A FLARE UP OF STORMS NOW OVER SHERMAN AND WALLACE COUNTIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT PER NEBRASKA PROFILER DATA/00Z NORTH PLATTE DATA WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING ISOLD SUPERCELLS...WITH A SMALL MCS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS ACROSS NEB THIS EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SVR TSTM WIND GUSTS...WITH A RECENT REPORT OF 62 MPH JUST WEST OF GLD AND 70 MPH NEAR PHELPS NEB. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CORES. ..TAYLOR.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... 38210120 38340249 39590237 41150011 41439796 39889815 38739853 38590021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 01:54:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 20:54:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509060311.j863Buwv002061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060310 WIZ000-MNZ000-060415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060310Z - 060415Z A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL MN. SEVERE SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OUT OF ERN PARTS OF WW 770 WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SCNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THIS THREAT. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD... 44149482 44099612 44929540 45759488 45809254 44269365 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 02:44:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 21:44:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509060401.j8641iLa024929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060400 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060400 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-060500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO NW/NCNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769... VALID 060400Z - 060500Z PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS ISOLD LARGE HAIL ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 769 ACROSS EXTREME SCNTRL NEB INTO NW/NCNTRL KS. REMAINING PORTION OF WW 769 MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 05Z. PRIMARY THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SRN PORTION OF WW 769 ACROSS NCNTRL/NW KS. AT 04Z...TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF WEST-EAST ORIENTED SLOW MOVING TSTMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OCCURRING FROM DECATUR COUNTY KS EWD INTO NRN OSBORNE/JEWELL COUNTIES IN NCNTRL KS...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF TSTMS WAS OCCURRING ACROSS WALLACE/LOGAN COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF I-70 IN NW KS. INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET /ALREADY 30-35 KTS PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS REGION. AMBIENT SOURCE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WITH 00Z DODGE CITY RAOB SAMPLING 1.41 INCHES. RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 IN/HR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND THREAT NOW APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/FORWARD PROPAGATION. POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR AN ISOLD/EMBEDDED LARGE HAILSTONE OR TWO GIVEN REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 05Z GIVEN DIMINISHING WIND/HAIL THREATS. ..GUYER.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... 40290075 40589916 40569763 38889784 38410017 38320160 38630207 39250203 39910150 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 03:02:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 22:02:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509060419.j864JXmO032740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060418 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-060545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MN...WRN WI...SERN SD...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 770...771...772... VALID 060418Z - 060545Z WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD INTO NWRN IA AS WW 770 EXPIRES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN TONIGHT FEATURES STRONGLY DIFFLUENT AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP 50KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. RESULTANT STRONG ASCENT IS CONTINUING TO ACT ON WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS AND FUEL WELL-ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE REGION. ONE ARCING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NRN MN INTO CNTRL MN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND MESO HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...OVER NCNTRL MN. RECENTLY...CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING ON THIS COMPLEX INDICATING PERHAPS A GRADUAL DECLINE IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...A FEW LEWP SEGMENTS WITHIN THE BOWING LINE WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE SECOND BOWING COMPLEX EXTENDS FROM WCNTRL MN ACROSS SWRN MN AND TRAILS WWD INTO SERN SD. A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND MESO HIGH EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ACROSS ERN SD. LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE REGENERATIVE DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN. LINE SEGMENTS ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS GRADUALLY ESEWD ACROSS SERN SD AND INTO NWRN IA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43119456 43079606 42929658 42959963 43749934 44209613 45309564 45959538 46749425 47939386 48569352 48459131 43569326 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 06:36:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 01:36:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509060753.j867rg0r005487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060752 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NEB...WRN/NRN IA...EXTREME SERN ND...SERN MN...W-CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 772...773... VALID 060752Z - 060915Z REMAINING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BOTH WW 772 AND 773 BEFORE SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION TIME FOR EACH...THEREFORE WWS MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE THEN. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS INDICATED FROM W MCW TO NEAR SUX AS OF 745Z...MOVING ESEWD 20-25 KT...WITH STRONGEST CORES LOCATED GENERALLY BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF MCS. ISOLATED HAIL UP TO MARGINAL SEVERE SIZES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY LESS UNSTABLE AND MORE WEAKLY SHEARED AIRMASS...SFC AND ALOFT. LARGER BUOYANCY REMAINS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE IS HIGHEST ACROSS N-CENTRAL WI...HOWEVER RAGGED/DISORGANIZED AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL IN NEAR TERM. AS A RESULT...ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42449761 42759608 43399441 44069277 44939226 44839198 44259181 43669181 42979245 42469322 41859447 41659535 41799623 42259741 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 19:02:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 14:02:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509062019.j86KJMfp020416@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062018 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-062145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062018Z - 062145Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EVOLVING WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ACROSS FAR ERN CO AND ADJACENT WRN KS/SWRN NEB. DAYTIME HEATING OF MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YIELDED 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THIS REGION. ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING INVOF BOUNDARY ATTM...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF UVV POSSIBLY RESULTING FROM WEAK VORT MAX EVIDENT OVER NERN CO. THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS MARGINAL WITH RESPECT TO LARGE-SCALE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KT BENEATH 20 KT WLYS AT MID-LEVELS IS YIELDING 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT...LATEST GRENADA AND MCCOOK WIND PROFILERS SHOW VERY WEAK FLOW FIELD IN THE LOWEST FEW KM. THEREFORE...WITH WEAKLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ATTM...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND ISOLATED. ..GOSS.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 41280285 41750201 42050064 41690025 41070038 39750052 38000042 37560132 38130275 40230247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 21:31:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 16:31:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509062248.j86MmwFF020159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062247 NEZ000-070045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062247Z - 070045Z STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NEB. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN NEB WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE AIDED ON WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT BY A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST FROM NERN CO. THIS IMPULSE IS LIKELY DRIVING ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM GRANT AND HOOKER COUNTIES SWD ACROSS MCPHERSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG ERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERSECT THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER ANTELOPE AND MADISON COUNTIES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER 20-40KT ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD FOSTER STORM PERSISTENCE WITH BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR. HOWEVER... OVERALL FORCING AND INSTABILITY APPEAR MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41719750 41360125 41540209 41730247 42010266 42440161 42619899 42479692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 03:10:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 22:10:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509070427.j874RNbH020164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070426 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070426 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-070700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB....SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070426Z - 070700Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL SD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...LARGE SCALE UPR JET COUPLING...AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS A FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST TSTMS WILL LIKELY HAVE UPDRAFTS ROOTED AROUND 700MB BASED ON LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION WERE CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY 30-40KT WLY FLOW IN THE UPR PORTIONS OF THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HAIL. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD...SWRN MN...AND PERHAPS PARTS OF NWRN IA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 09/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43019723 42779846 42839984 43050039 43490015 43979950 44379738 44429635 44399541 44289481 43999456 43449563 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 16:28:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 11:28:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509071745.j87HjA9q008241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071743 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-071945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...NE IA...CNTRL/SRN WI INTO NRN LWR MI CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 071743Z - 071945Z STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE THREAT STILL SEEMS LIMITED AT BEST...AND NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS STALLING UPSTREAM...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA...AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. BOUNDARY IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WITH SURFACE HEATING...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH PEAK HEATING SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST SOUTHEAST OF LA CROSSE INTO AREAS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF MILWAUKEE...AS DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE. CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME SOUTH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. OTHERWISE...STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..KERR.. 09/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 44649053 44708926 44838761 44998643 44978546 43898598 43108725 42868974 42649079 42539236 43009272 43869159 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 18:47:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 13:47:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509072004.j87K4xuX020408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072003 NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-072130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...NE CO...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072003Z - 072130Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN SHORT TERM...BUT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR WEST/NORTHWEST OF MCCOOK INTO AREAS JUST WEST OF MULLEN...BUT FARTHER WEST...HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG...AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE CHEYENNE WY AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS SLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER WESTERLIES...IS FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BY THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 09/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 43250420 43220301 42370184 41520216 40530221 39980293 40360377 41610414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 21:45:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 16:45:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509072302.j87N2n9f002466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072301 KSZ000-COZ000-080100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/FAR WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072301Z - 080100Z STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER WRN AND NRN NEB WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN CO. A VORTICITY MAX ANALYZED BY THE RUC IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NE CO AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPING STORMS. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SHOWN BY REGIONAL PROFILERS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE HAIL FORMATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING. ..BROYLES.. 09/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37640267 38110322 39730361 40530322 40470247 39610177 38410167 37830195 37630260 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 22:24:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 17:24:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509072341.j87NfcMu021591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072340 NEZ000-COZ000-080145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072340Z - 080145Z LARGE HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT OVER ERN WY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN NEB. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MUCAPE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE SEWD INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...BACKED SFC WINDS AND WLY FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING VERTICAL SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KT SUGGESTING A SUPERCELL THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10 C WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER MORE PERSISTENT STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 09/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... 40910269 41080374 42180399 42880338 42720197 41340185 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 00:08:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 19:08:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509080125.j881PWn0009969@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080124 SDZ000-080330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080124Z - 080330Z SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS WRN SD WILL SPREAD EWD INTO CNTRL SD. THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF THE STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN NEB. THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -7 C ACROSS WRN AND SRN SD. A CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN AND ERN SD BUT THE CAP IS WEAKENING ACROSS CNTRL SD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM/GFS/RUC SOLUTIONS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGLY VEERING WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR FROM 700 TO 300 MB AS SHOWN ON THE RAPID CITY SOUNDING. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..BROYLES.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43220039 43670178 44540215 45280129 45279968 44009881 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 05:43:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 00:43:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509080700.j8870tGM005995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080659 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-081000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 080659Z - 081000Z LARGE TSTM CLUSTER INITIALLY OVER E-CENTRAL SD IS FCST TO PERSIST...PERHAPS EXPAND AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS SWRN MN INTO NWRN IA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 11Z. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTERMITTENT -- CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF HAIL. GREATER HAZARD MAY RESULT FROM HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR COMMON WITHIN MCS...ISOLATED AREAS OF 3-4 INCHES/HOUR IN MOST INTENSE CORES OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MERGING/TRAINING OF ECHOES WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN RATES PERSISTING FOR 2 HOURS IN SOME LOCALES. 6Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW INVOF PIR...ALONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH YKN AREA...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER SW DOWN MO VALLEY. SFC WARM FRONT OVER SERN SD SHOULD DRIFT NWD AND REMAIN S OF PRIMARY MCS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG PARALLEL SEGMENT OF FRONT LOCATED NEAR 850 MB LEVEL. MCS PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT INTO MOIST 20-30 KT SWLY LLJ SHOULD KEEP OVERALL MOVEMENT S OF E...AND MAINTAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INFLOW LAYER. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN ND/CENTRAL SD -- TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES. RESULT WILL BE ELEVATED MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AMIDST ABOUT 1.25 INCH PW. CONVECTIVE MODE WITHIN MCS SHOULD BE MIX OF MULTICELLS AND SHORT-LIVED/HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS...WHERE BOTH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL RISKS WILL BE ENHANCED BY EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION WITHIN AREAS OF MIDLEVEL ROTATION. EXPECT 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS FOR ELEVATED PARCELS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 43259645 43809714 44489839 44939791 45059673 44829584 44399437 43369412 42829524 42969600 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 09:52:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 04:52:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509081109.j88B9W2k016184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081108 IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-081345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME E-CENTRAL SD...SWRN MN...NWRN THROUGH CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081108Z - 081345Z LINE OF TSTMS WITH HISTORY OF HAIL AND SUB-50KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS NWRN AND PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN IA THROUGH MIDMORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE HAIL. 6 INCH DEEP ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL WAS REPORTED IN LYON COUNTY AT ABOUT 1015Z. ALSO...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE WITH TIME AFTER SUNRISE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MESOLOW REMAINING NEAR PIR...WITH QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SEWD ACROSS YKN AREA THEN DOWN MO RIVER VALLEY TOWARD NERN MO. MCS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NE OF THIS FRONT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. MU-EFFECTIVE SHEARS 50-60 KT FAVOR MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION OF THIS ACTIVITY. LLJ WILL DIMINISH WITH WEAKENING STATE OF DECOUPLING ATOP NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER...AS FOREGOING AIR MASS DIABATICALLY WARMS. HOWEVER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE GIVEN THAT LLJ IS PERPENDICULAR TO MOTION OF ACTIVITY AND THAT MCS IS NOW COLD-POOL DRIVEN --I.E. PRIMARILY FORWARD PROPAGATIONAL. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE PARCELS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL TEMPS RISE INTO AT LEAST MID 70S F...THOUGH DIABATICALLY DRIVEN BOOST IN BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE PROBABILITY THAT STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT MAY PENETRATE RELATIVELY STABLE SUBCONVECTIVE LAYER AND REACH SFC. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MOVING FROM E-CENTRAL SD INTO SWRN MN...ATOP FRONTAL LAYER REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM NWRN IA MCS. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED BY DEPTH OF STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 42479572 43039605 43819572 44449753 45069709 44829584 44449440 43769425 42929270 41679393 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 14:40:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 09:40:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509081557.j88FvWEC019893@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081556 IAZ000-081700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 774... VALID 081556Z - 081700Z CONTINUE WW. CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA...SUPPORTED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY FORMING ON WESTERN FLANK OF SYSTEM IS OCCURRING WHERE LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INTO AREAS JUST NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF DES MOINES BY 18Z. STORMS THROUGH MID DAY APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN BASED ABOVE WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT AS WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER PROGRESSES...RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUING. ..KERR.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX... 42719456 42889391 42509293 41699260 41599381 42139483 42459482 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 16:22:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 11:22:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509081740.j88HdujJ029528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081738 ILZ000-IAZ000-081915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA INTO PARTS OF NE MO/NW IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 774... VALID 081738Z - 081915Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. GIVEN FAVORABLE CAPE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF IOWA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEMS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED EAST SOUTHEAST OF DES MOINES THROUGH THE BURLINGTON AREA...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PROPAGATION OF MOST VIGOROUS STORMS THROUGH 20-21Z. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED THROUGH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS INCREASING NEXT FEW HOURS. ..KERR.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... 42239353 41789169 41669094 41409046 40709106 40789237 41459392 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 17:44:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 12:44:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509081901.j88J15pW022019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081859 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-082100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...WRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081859Z - 082100Z CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER NWRN NEB WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN WY WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND SWRN SD. GIVEN LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE AREA DEGREE OF SVR THREAT IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. STG CONVECTION OVER WRN CHERRY COUNTY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT EXISTED BENEATH MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTION WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL WLY FLOW ABOVE ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION. THUS CONDITIONS OVER NCENTRAL NEB APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL. EXTENT OF SVR THREAT INTO ERN NEB WILL BE MITIGATED AS A STRONG CAP /> 200 J/KG OF MLCINH/ DUE TO RESIDUAL OUTFLOW EXISTS. FURTHER WEST...HIGH BASED/DEEPLY MIXED CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF SERN/ECENTRAL WY INTO SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42299923 43299987 43420057 43560181 43570358 42980409 42320399 41500396 41140372 41230195 41360048 41659968 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 18:24:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 13:24:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509081941.j88JfRsD017886@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081940 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-082115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE IA INTO PARTS OF NE MO...NW AND CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 775... VALID 081940Z - 082115Z CONTINUE WW. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND 30-35 KT...THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS WITH FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND BROADER SCALE BOW ECHO STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE READILY EVIDENT IN RADAR DATA PAST FEW HOURS. LITTLE IS EVIDENT TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS SYSTEM SPREADS ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BURLINGTON IA AREA. THEREAFTER...DRIER...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F...PROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURGING OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST ALONG GUST FRONT THROUGH THE PEORIA/SPRINGFIELD IL AREAS BY 23-00Z. ..KERR.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX... 41729058 40918888 39758869 39459043 39849156 41149278 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 21:00:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 16:00:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509082217.j88MHx5d002262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082217 ILZ000-082345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 775... VALID 082217Z - 082345Z A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMES MARGINAL EARLY THIS EVENING. A WW SE OF THE CURRENT WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ERN IA IS SUPPORTING A LINE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN IL. THE IS LINE MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND IS NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM SRN IA EWD INTO CNTRL IL AND CNTRL IND. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SHOWN BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS FAR WRN IL. EAST OF THIS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS CNTRL IL. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE THE LINE GRADUALLY DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY. ..BROYLES.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39759104 40339094 40789031 40548880 39728808 39118837 38898948 39669098 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 09:33:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 04:33:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509091051.j89ApkKf007242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091050 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-091215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN ND INTO NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091050Z - 091215Z ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING. 10Z SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED A NW-SE WARM FRONT OVER SD... WITH PERSISTENT PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ND. THESE SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE INDICATIVE OF ASCENT/WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A 35 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO ND/WRN MN. ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER SERN WY PER WV IMAGERY. CENTRAL ND TO NWRN MN ARE ALSO WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 55 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL ASCENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THIS DEEP LAYER ASCENT...LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD IS REACHING THE LFC ACROSS ND ATTM AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS WITH THE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID AND LOW LEVEL JET STREAKS ARE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO ROTATE...WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT HAIL WITH THESE ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS. ..PETERS.. 09/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 47430073 48080022 48269874 48239698 47859580 46999501 46069572 45879722 45969932 45960030 46580092 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 11:21:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 06:21:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509091239.j89CduTu013596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091238 MNZ000-WIZ000-NDZ000-091315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND / NRN MN CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091238Z - 091315Z THE AREA ENCOMPASSING ERN ND INTO NRN MN WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THE UPCOMING 13Z CONVECTIVE DAY 1 OUTLOOK (SWODY1). WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR ERN ND INTO NWRN MN...GIVEN ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BIS/ABR INDICATED A DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IN PLACE AND OCCURRING SINCE 00Z...GIVEN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS /1. OVER SERN WY...2. OVER ERN MT...AND 3. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/. IN ADDITION...THESE SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL WLY WINDS SUSTAINING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR ROTATION WITH THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 09/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... 47690022 48659958 48919896 48959739 49219488 48339112 47569085 46779216 46119287 46189604 46149855 46390012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 16:50:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 11:50:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509091808.j89I8DDc014332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091807 COZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-092000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UT...FAR NRN AZ...SWRN WY...AND FAR WRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091807Z - 092000Z INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL UT DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NRN AZ...WRN CO...AND SWRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 18Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG CLOSED LOW LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL CA/NV BORDER IS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN UPPER FORCING/DEEP PVA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT NOW ACROSS FAR WRN UT SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL UT VICINITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S IN CENTRAL UT...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO. MLCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF UPPER FORCING WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR TO 40-45KT SHOULD RESULT IN LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OF CENTRAL UT. EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION EWD INTO WRN CO AND INTO SWRN WY IS LESS CLEAR AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS HAVE COOLED THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WRN CO...HOWEVER...SOME RECOVERY IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE TSTM THREAT WILL BE MONITORED AS ACTIVITY INCREASES IN UT. ..BANACOS.. 09/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF... 38341358 41051280 41881168 41870948 41460876 40630858 38090842 37110898 36740931 36341102 36521220 37161336 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 19:38:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 14:38:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509092056.j89KuY6Y031868@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092054 NDZ000-SDZ000-092230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL NORTH DAKOTA...N CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092054Z - 092230Z THOUGH PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE SEEMS RATHER LOW...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS BECOMING FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE EAST SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK INTO AREAS WEST NORTHWEST OF ABERDEEN...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW EXCEEDS 1500 J/KG. THIS IS ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITHIN BROADER SCALE ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME. VERY WARM LAYER IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE IS CAPPING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL FORCING COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY IMPULSE IS ADDING TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO BETWEEN NOW AND THE 23-00Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 09/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 47190073 47419952 46949838 46369807 45729858 45469876 45739981 45980021 46670073 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 22:42:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 17:42:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509100000.j8A00mhE027207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092359 COZ000-UTZ000-100130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT/FAR WRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 776...777... VALID 092359Z - 100130Z SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS ERN UT AND WRN CO MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL LATER THIS EVENING. AT UPPER-LEVELS...A SWRN TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NV WITH AN EJECTING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD THROUGH ERN NV AND SRN UT. STRONG ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS ERN UT AND WRN CO WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DRYING CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING WITHIN A FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... 37551074 38931090 40021063 40561009 40640918 40360833 39340795 37710835 37120901 37040983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 00:20:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 19:20:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509100138.j8A1cXhK028140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100137 AZZ000-100300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2173 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0837 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100137Z - 100300Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS ERN AZ. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE WW. WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NV WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ THIS EVENING. THE LIFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING NWD FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH ERN AZ. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS IN SERN AZ ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. THE STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD SUSTAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 09/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 32970905 32530934 32311001 32571091 33331133 34231136 34861093 35061030 34790954 33790909 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 19:39:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 14:39:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509112057.j8BKvaFU006412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112056 NDZ000-SDZ000-112230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2174 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE NORTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112056Z - 112230Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS INHIBITION FOR MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS WEAKENING IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING TO THE EAST/ NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S...CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG...AND THIS MAY INCREASE FURTHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH PRIMARY UPPER IMPULSE IS WELL TO THE WEST...LIFTING FROM MONTANA INTO SASKATCHEWAN...MODELS SUGGEST WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING /WIND SHIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z. THIS WILL WEAKEN CAP FURTHER...AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION APPEARS TO BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF MOBRIDGE SD INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMESTOWN ND...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED. GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...A SUPERCELL OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXISTS...BUT LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..KERR.. 09/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45730002 46669932 47079847 46899738 46059716 45569770 45429828 45049905 44859990 45350031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 11:10:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 06:10:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509121228.j8CCS7VC032693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121227 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121226 WIZ000-MNZ000-121400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2175 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN MN INTO FAR WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121226Z - 121400Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING FROM SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO EAST CENTRAL MN/FAR WRN WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NEB WITH AN ASSOCIATED 40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SRN MN ATTM. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF A SWLY LLJ PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ENEWD THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MN TO FAR WRN WI. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER 12Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING BASED AROUND 850 MB AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS PRODUCING HAIL THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 09/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD... 45369589 45909535 46319421 46559306 46339237 45159279 44209333 43909390 43809494 43759592 44689593 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 18:10:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 13:10:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509121929.j8CJTFKO020362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121927 MNZ000-SDZ000-122130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL SD AND SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121927Z - 122130Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN SD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY TOWARD THIS EVENING. AT 19Z...WEAK CYCLONE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN PIERRE AND CHAMBERLAIN SD. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS REGION...WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH E-CENTRAL SD AND SWRN MN. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE PRESENT...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. SURFACE-BASED INITIATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ACROSS E-CENTRAL SD. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN SD AND NEAR PHP ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR SO PER RAP 18Z SOUNDING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SWRN WY MAY ALSO BE CONTRIBUTING TO UVV IN THIS AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. ONGOING STORMS SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY NEWD TOWARD N-CENTRAL/NERN SD WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH LONGER-LIVED CELLS. NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...THICKENING LOW CLOUDS AND ABSENCE OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS MAY PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER JET EXIT REGION MOVING NEWD THROUGH WRN KS AT THE PRESENT TIME. THIS MAY AID IN INITIATION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SD AND SWRN MN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 09/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43479846 43830115 45480103 45529704 45429523 44559467 43759493 43609567 43539719 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 21:04:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 16:04:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509122222.j8CMMAu5017144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122220 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...WRN KS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 122220Z - 130015Z ...A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND DEEPENING WLY FLOW HAVE FORCED DRYLINE EWD TO A POSITION EXTENDING FROM PHILLIPS COUNTY KS...SSWWD TO NEAR LBB IN THE TX PANHANDLE. NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM ARE SUPPORTING STRONG THERMALS ALONG A FAIRLY FOCUSED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE. IT APPEARS DEEPENING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERY WARM PROFILES INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY HAIL GENERATED WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL IN SIZE. UPDRAFT ENTRAINMENT ALONG N-S ORIENTED PORTION OF THE DRYLINE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE. ..DARROW.. 09/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 33750257 36090082 38710005 38819877 35999944 33550067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 21:08:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 16:08:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509122226.j8CMQaPQ019544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122225 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2178 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN WY...WRN SD...AND FAR NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122225Z - 130030Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN IN INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THREAT SHOULD DECREASE...ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN SD AND FAR NWRN NEB THROUGH 01Z. WW IS NOT PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AREA. FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH MOTION 240/40-45KT...WILL TRACK FROM NERN WY ACROSS WRN SD AND FAR NWRN NEB DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL PVA MOVING ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL WY. DESPITE THIS...CONVECTION IS PROCESSING BEST INSTABILITY AT THE PRESENT TIME...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ACROSS WRN SD/NWRN NEB...COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 40S SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF ONGOING ACTIVITY. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN CONVECTIVE MODE AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT. AS CONVECTION WEAKENS OVERALL...POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD LESSEN SUGGESTING THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 09/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 42730394 43760446 44720469 45280420 45450355 45570286 45560227 45290164 44630136 43890125 43210125 42830170 42720221 42630304 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 21:14:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 16:14:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509122232.j8CMW7bp022086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122231 NEZ000-KSZ000-122330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2179 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL KS...CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122231Z - 122330Z ...WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEB...INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL KS... LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING OVER NEB AS SPEED MAX APPROACHES THE CNTRL PLAINS. LATEST WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A BROAD ZONE OF MOISTENING AT MID LEVELS SPREADING ACROSS SERN CO/WRN KS...WHICH WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE DRYLINE IN NEB. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AND MINIMAL INHIBITION WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 09/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 39249982 40459945 42229973 42769777 39669801 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 22:31:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 17:31:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509122348.j8CNmlJs028739@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122347 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-130115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN SD...FAR NWRN/N-CENTRAL IA...AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 778... VALID 122347Z - 130115Z THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS ERN/SERN SD EWD INTO SWRN MN. ADDITION WW MAY BE REQUIRED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ENEWD INTO S-CENTRAL MN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG WARM FRONT EAST OF SFC LOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KINGSBURY COUNTY SD ENEWD TO YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY MN. STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SUSTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...INCLUDING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COUPLETS PER FSD 88D. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STORMS ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROCESS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILE IS EVIDENT PER FSD VAD WIND PROFILE...WITH 0-1KM SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN SD EWD INTO S-CENTRAL MN...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST AND SW OF FSD. THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CENTRAL IA LATER THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 09/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 43769889 44839888 45489329 43319340 42689886 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 00:07:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 19:07:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509130125.j8D1PhG4012152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130125 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130124 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-130300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 779... VALID 130124Z - 130300Z ...CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH... LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY APPARENTLY HAS CONTRIBUTED GREATLY TO THE DEMISE OF EARLIER SEVERE SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER OSBORNE COUNTY KS. SEVERAL STRONG UPDRAFTS REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN NEB WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS A BIT STRONGER. LATEST VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST STRONG FORCING REMAINS ABOUT 150MI UPSTREAM WHERE SRN EXTENT OF WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF IS MOVING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG LEAD CONFLUENCE ZONE LATE THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD... 39249992 40919953 42989929 42769727 39169761 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 01:19:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 20:19:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509130237.j8D2bPUG013535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130236 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-130400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 780... VALID 130236Z - 130400Z ...WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WCNTRL WI... A COMPLEX...UPWARD EVOLVING MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SRN MN THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A MVC IS FORMING WITHIN EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD NW OF THE HEAVIER CORE WEST OF STC. SEVERAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF WW...ESPECIALLY WRIGHT/SHERBURNE/ANOKA COUNTIES...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING INTO WCNTRL WI. IT APPEARS SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING DOWNSTREAM AND THIS MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL WATCH SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42609842 45519697 45229050 43509291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 04:17:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 23:17:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509130535.j8D5ZfP3031079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130535 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130534 MIZ000-WIZ000-130600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI/U.P. MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130534Z - 130600Z WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF NRN WI INTO THE U.P. MI. WELL ESTABLISHED BOW ECHO HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED AT 45-50 KT OVER NWRN WI. THIS BOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NRN WI INTO THE U.P. OF MI OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM HAS REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH 45 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP 45-50 KT REAR INFLOW JET PER MINNEAPOLIS VAD. ..PETERS.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46199143 46409067 46578906 46508745 45858693 44988790 44808978 44969097 44929141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 05:02:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 00:02:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509130620.j8D6K3Mf013341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130619 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-130715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/PARTS OF WRN WI AND FAR NRN-NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 780... VALID 130619Z - 130715Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SERN MN INTO PARTS OF WRN WI AND FAR NERN IA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDED FROM SAWYER/RUSK COUNTIES WI SSWWD TO BUFFALO COUNTY WI AND THEN WWD TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTERSECTING A BOW ECHO OVER THIS PART OF MN. THIS SRN MN BOW IS MOVING ENEWD AT 40 KT INTO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THUS... A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SERN MN THROUGH 08Z. IF THE LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER SSEWD OVER WRN WI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE ENEWD MOVING BOW ECHO OVER SRN MN. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EWD INTO WRN WI. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS THE NRN PORTION OF THE SRN MN BOW ECHO TRACKS ENEWD ATOP A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING BOW ECHO NOW OVER NRN WI. ..PETERS.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44549169 44559074 44419030 43749012 43339069 43249233 43269352 43579340 43939324 44479330 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 15:02:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 10:02:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509131620.j8DGKeL5032318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131620 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131619 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-131815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN IA/SERN MN/SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131619Z - 131815Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 13/18Z. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN IA INTO ADJACENT SERN MN AND SWRN WI...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY MSP SSWWD TO NEAR MHK. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THIS REGION...CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS WILL OCCUR. THOUGH MORNING RAOBS INDICATE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UVV INVOF FRONT/LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES -- ENHANCED BY WEAK VORT MAX MOVING EWD ATTM ACROSS ERN NEB -- SHOULD COMBINE WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO WEAKEN CAP. THEREFORE...EXPECT SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND/OR EVOLVE FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE MO/IA BORDER...AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SERN MN/SWRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH AREA PROFILERS INDICATING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 50 KT ABOVE SSWLYS AT LOW LEVELS...WEAK DIRECTIONAL AND MODERATE SPEED SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELL STORMS AND/OR SMALL-SCALE LINES. THEREFORE...AS ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INCREASES...WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44319294 44569128 43778987 42489010 40989213 41099417 41409500 43089450 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 17:38:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 12:38:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509131857.j8DIvTfe018232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131855 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-132100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131855Z - 132100Z SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THIS AREA...AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS ACROSS IA. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...AND AS UVV INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF VORT MAX NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS NWRN IA/SWRN MN...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL WI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...RECENT BLR /BLUE RIVER WI/ PROFILER SHOWS MODERATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 50 KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS. RESULTING WIND PROFILE /40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR/ IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL-SCALE LINES...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 45418989 45228815 44018853 42949009 43599249 44939106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 18:01:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 13:01:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509131918.j8DJImvK002967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131917 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-132145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / WRN MO / NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131917Z - 132145Z ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 21Z. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER FAR ERN KS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD AND IS MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE AS OF 19Z. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES EWD INTO WRN MO. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE POTENT STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER W...IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE STRONGER NEAR THE FRONT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND EVEN TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH NLY SURFACE FLOW PROVIDING LONGER 0-1 KM SHEAR VECTORS. THE PROBLEM FOR TORNADOES WILL BE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES W OF THE FRONT...UNDERNEATH A CAPPING INVERSION AS WELL AS RESIDENCE TIME NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WINDOW FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY APPEARS BRIEF. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..JEWELL.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 36509529 36239682 36569784 37739784 38569788 39259674 39389583 38639307 37069341 36759382 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 18:33:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 13:33:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509131951.j8DJp4kZ027018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131950 OKZ000-TXZ000-132145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX / FAR SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131950Z - 132145Z STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE HAIL OR WIND REPORTS ARE LIKELY. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF CDS TO LBB. STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE FRONT...WITH MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELDING IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG MUCAPE. ALTHOUGH JAYTON PROFILER SHOWS WEAK WLY FLOW NEAR 10 KTS BELOW 4KM...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ABOVE THAT HEIGHT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINLY MULTICELLULAR STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34840111 35579995 35349938 34849958 34250001 33400077 33330220 33800224 34340173 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 19:08:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 14:08:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509132025.j8DKPtIf022298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132025 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-132200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA/SERN MN/CENTRAL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 781...782... VALID 132025Z - 132200Z CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 781/INTO WW 782. LARGE AREA OF MULTICELL CONVECTION -- WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/SEVERE STORMS -- CONTINUES MOVING NEWD THROUGH VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /3000 TO 3500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ OVER NERN IA AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SWRN WI AND SERN MN. STORMS ARE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL MN...WITHIN MODERATELY-STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE. FURTHER...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS S CENTRAL WI...AND SWD INTO FAR ERN IA/NWRN IL...LIKELY ALONG DIFFUSE/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER -- BUT STILL SUFFICIENT -- SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW ACROSS FAR NRN IL/E CENTRAL AND SERN WI. ..GOSS.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44479180 45039044 44738787 42668787 41938929 41939095 42839303 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 22:38:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 17:38:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509132356.j8DNuEVZ024171@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132355 MIZ000-140130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132355Z - 140130Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NWRN LOWER MI BY 01Z. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER HAS EVOLVED IN CONJUNCTION WITH MCS OVER CNTRL WI. LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 40-45KT ACROSS LAKE MI. RECENT REPORTS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN WI...AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP DOWNSTREAM TO MAINTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY THAT SQUALL LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS HAS YET TO COMMENCE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF CONVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY. ..DARROW.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45008616 45828429 44968302 43498425 43238663 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 23:13:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 18:13:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509140031.j8E0V1a3012772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140029 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / WRN MO / NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 783...784... VALID 140029Z - 140230Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY OVER WW 784 AND WRN PORTIONS OF WW 783. WHILE ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS CELLS CONSOLIDATE AND OUTFLOWS INTERFERE DESTRUCTIVELY. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER ERN KS ALONG COLD FRONT. FARTHER E...MORE ISOLATED CELLS PERSIST WHICH WILL HAVE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF BOTH BRIEF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH SGF SOUNDING SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH SUGGESTS TORNADIC THREAT EXTREMELY LOW THAT FAR EAST. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75" AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET WITH TIME...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SERN KS AND SWRN MO WITH TRAINING CELLS...WITH PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT NEARLY PARALLEL TO CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36259848 37029842 37029750 37599668 38649607 38639509 39349133 37169140 36459505 36289518 36219848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 00:47:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 19:47:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509140205.j8E25Dd0028205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140203 OKZ000-TXZ000-140330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 786... VALID 140203Z - 140330Z ...STRONG STORMS WILL BECOME ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS OK... STEEPEST LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND BUOYANCY THAT HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED IS ORIENTED SW-NE ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE PROPAGATING INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...AND GIVEN SWLY FEED AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL OK AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34130094 36409927 36489574 34129801 33620026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 00:57:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 19:57:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509140215.j8E2FDAX000606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140213 MIZ000-140345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI...ERN U.P OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 787... VALID 140213Z - 140345Z THREAT FOR SVR WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES NEWD OUT OF WW 787 INTO NERN LOWER MI AND THE ERN U.P OF MI IN THE NEXT HOUR. GIVEN LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL THREAT ALONG WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED...A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM OF WW 787 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RECENT SFC ASOS OBS ACROSS NWRN LOWER MI INDICATE THAT WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE LINE WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. FORWARD LINE MOTION REMAINS RELATIVELY FAST...WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATING AROUND 40 KT MOVEMENT. GIVEN DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NOTED 0N RECENT IR IMAGERY...THE OVERALL SVR WIND THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES OUT OF WW 787 INTO NERN LOWER MI AND ERN U.P OF MI. GIVEN ANTICIPATED LINE MOTION CONTINUING NEAR CURRENT SPEED...THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER IN WW 787 SHOULD BE OVER BY 03Z. THUS WW 787 SHOULD BE CANCELLED AROUND THAT TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX... 46518432 46518504 45728522 45108510 44568505 44278449 44328347 44628285 45178281 45908352 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 02:27:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 21:27:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509140345.j8E3j8Zo015015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140344 MOZ000-ILZ000-140515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL IL...SERN/ERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 788... VALID 140344Z - 140515Z ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MO/WCNTRL IL... WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE IS PROGRESSING EWD AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT ACROSS CNTRL MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING BEYOND WATCH 788 BUT THE EVOLUTION OF A MVC OVER NERN OSAGE COUNTY MO COULD AID EWD PROGRESSION/INTENSITY A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS MCS. ..DARROW.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 37009289 37889157 38899099 38808974 37339001 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 05:18:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 00:18:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509140636.j8E6aNwD025911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140635 OKZ000-TXZ000-140730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL OK AND EXTREME NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 786... VALID 140635Z - 140730Z WW 786 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN OK... WITH THESE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING FROM 40 N ADM TO 20 N SPS TO 15 SSE CDS. A 35 KT SSWLY LLJ IS CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SWRN OK RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE ZONE OF WAA ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 786 FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE FURTHER SEVERE THREAT... WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL. ..PETERS.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34050062 35599953 35759803 36229707 36189693 34029854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 05:59:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 00:59:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509140717.j8E7H36J006015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140715 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-140815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN OK INTO NWRN AR TO SOUTH CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 788... VALID 140715Z - 140815Z ALTHOUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM SW-NE OK AND INTO SRN MO/NRN AR...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 788. REGIONAL RADARS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED S OF WW 788...WITH THESE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MO/NRN AR BORDER REGION TO FYV...AND THEN SWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SWRN OK. SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A ZONE OF WAA ACROSS THIS AREA...AND MAINLY N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR...BUT TIME OF DAY AND MODEST LLJ WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... 35809711 37239318 37559154 36849156 35259709 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 10:40:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 05:40:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509141158.j8EBwIGf029909@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141157 NCZ000-141300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141157Z - 141300Z TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING FOR ERN NC. REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED HURRICANE OPHELIA CONTINUING TO TRACK NWD TOWARD THE SERN NC COAST AS INDICATED BY LATEST TPC GUIDANCE/FORECAST. NRN MOST RAIN BAND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM SAMPSON TO BEAUFORT COUNTIES NC AND THEN ESEWD OVER THE OUTER BANKS NEAR HSE. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE HAD WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION. AREA VADS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF OPHELIA. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS MOVE ONSHORE AND INTERACT WITH A FRICTIONALLY INDUCED INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS NNEWD FROM THE CENTER OF OPHELIA TO NEAR ILM TO 30 W ECG. ..PETERS.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... 34287781 35007769 36137715 36487686 36337526 35057532 34117694 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 11:35:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 06:35:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509141252.j8ECqi5R020004@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141251 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-141345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 789... VALID 141251Z - 141345Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 789. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS KS/OK ATTM AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS OK AND SRN KS. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. ..PETERS.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 34919995 36229990 37129916 37419835 37499689 37369550 37059468 36009462 34779458 34469777 34249906 34509965 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 16:34:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 11:34:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509141751.j8EHppgw011987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141751 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141750 NCZ000-VAZ000-141945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC / EXTREME SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141750Z - 141945Z THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING FARTHER N INTO NERN NC AND SERN VA...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. AS OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A NEWD DIRECTION...SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK OVER NERN NC AND SERN VA AND WILL HELP ADVECT WARMER...MORE UNSTABLE AIR SWD...WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ROTATION WITHIN STORMS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 35567544 35277553 34727660 34757716 34967772 35477828 36067832 37037797 37047607 36387579 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 17:21:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 12:21:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509141839.j8EIdaeQ017784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141838 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141838 OKZ000-TXZ000-142015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141838Z - 142015Z THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 20Z. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM S OF CVS TO S OF LTS TO S OF TUL. A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO NOTED S OF THIS FRONT FROM S OF SPS TO S OF ADH. MEANWHILE...A WEAK DRYLINE OR PRESSURE TROUGH WAS SITUATED FROM THE INTERSECTION OF SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SRN TX PNHDL GENERALLY SWD TO JUST W OF 6R6. RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES S OF THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 90 F OVER W-CNTRL AND PORTIONS OF NWRN TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH 50-60 KT WSWLY WINDS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ON THE TUCUMCARI NM PROFILER. INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN NM INTO WRN TX MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACTING ON WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF DRYLINE/TROUGH OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/W-CNTRL TX NEWD ALONG FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN TX AND SWRN/S-CNTRL OK. CURRENT JAYTON TX PROFILER INDICATES THAT WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SWLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXPECT THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK WITH HODOGRAPHS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33160080 33970090 34340046 34819883 35279714 35029634 34509619 33919643 33549673 33289830 33029950 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 18:11:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 13:11:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509141928.j8EJSjxA028694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141927 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK INTO SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141927Z - 142100Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM S OF MLC TO NEAR DEQ TO LLQ IN SERN AR. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS HOT AND MOIST THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 18Z SHV SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE LIMITING MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG. CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CURRENT DEQUEEN AR PROFILER SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KM AGL...THOUGH UPSTREAM PURCELL OK PROFILER INDICATES A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34149582 34509613 34959558 34759445 34349284 34089167 33819110 33239129 33009202 33349344 33799481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 20:16:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 15:16:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509142134.j8ELY64p003892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142133 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142132 TXZ000-142300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142132Z - 142300Z THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE. STORMS CONTINUE TO INITIATE NEAR THE FST AREA...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER 60S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. MODIFIED 17Z MAF SOUNDING YIELDS AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD OUT OF NM...SOME COOLING ALOFT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES. WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30570398 31050325 32140252 32230212 32200087 31880054 31050098 30380139 29890172 29850188 29760267 29890338 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 20:24:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 15:24:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509142142.j8ELg7dX010071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142140 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-142345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...WRN KS...EXTREME NERN NM AND OK PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142140Z - 142345Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/PROFILER DATA INDICATE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL CO SWWD INTO NWRN NM. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS EVIDENCED BY INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SERN CO. AS A RESULT...HIGH BASED TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. SELY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE FALLS...ADVECTING MID-UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F DEW POINTS WWD BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 14C/. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...VIGOROUS UVV WILL COMPENSATE AND RESULT IN STRONG CONVECTION. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36570460 37340464 38340517 39000498 39500404 39620291 39590174 39540044 39159994 38529989 37860007 37360042 37050080 36790157 36530256 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 20:46:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 15:46:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509142203.j8EM3wbb024456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142202 OKZ000-TXZ000-150000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN TX PNHDL...CNTRL/NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142202Z - 150000Z A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX PNHDL EWD INTO CNTRL/NRN OK BY EARLY EVENING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE TX PNHDL INTO CNTRL/NRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH SPREADS EWD. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS /PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES/ SITUATED ALONG/S OF A BOUNDARY FROM NERN OK INTO THE CNTRL TX PNHDL. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE S OF THIS FRONT. MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS NOW OVER THE TX S PLAINS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THE TORNADO WATCH ACROSS SWRN OK/NWRN TX. KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LEFT-MOVING MEMBERS TO MOVE RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL/CNTRL OK THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD FROM THE KAMA AREA EWD ALONG/N OF A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ENID AND TULSA AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA... 35009821 34779959 34390148 35630163 36640075 36889874 36909643 36569564 35909575 35299647 35129762 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 22:12:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 17:12:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509142330.j8ENUM9B005686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142328 OKZ000-TXZ000-150100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN/SCNTRL OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 790... VALID 142328Z - 150100Z WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO COULD STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS NWRN TX AND SRN OK...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS ERUPTED QUICKLY ACROSS NWRN TX LATE THIS AFTN AND HAS MADE FOR A MESSY MESOSCALE SITUATION AS CELLS COMPETE/INTERACT. PRIMARY SUPERCELL OVER SRN FOARD COUNTY IS BEING SEEDED FROM THE SW BY OTHER UPDRAFTS OVER KING/NRN KNOX COUNTIES. IF THIS STORM CAN MANAGE TO MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE INFLOW...DOWNSTREAM BACKED LL FLOW AND LOW LCLS MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS WRN N TX NEAR/S OF KSPS. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LEFT-SPLITS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING INTO SWRN/SCNTRL OK THROUGH THE EVENING. MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 75-90 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. PRIND THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AND DEVELOP A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL FOR A POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND EVENT FROM NWRN/NCNTRL TX-SWRN OK NEWD INTO SCNTRL AND PERHAPS CNTRL OK. ..RACY.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 34180154 35169691 33439701 32490152 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 02:13:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 21:13:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509150213.j8F2D8Bi022781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150211 OKZ000-TXZ000-150315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN/SCNTRL OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 790... VALID 150211Z - 150315Z TORNADO WATCH 790 EXPIRES AT 03Z. 00Z H5 ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO SWWD INTO NCNTRL NM WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE TX PNHDL...OK AND KS. INITIAL SUPERCELL CLUSTER WEAKENED EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVED INTO SWRN OK. STRONGER TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED NWD INTO CNTRL/NRN OK WHERE H5 TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER. PRIND THAT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS AND MOVE ENEWD INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LLJ IMPINGES ON THE VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ISOLD HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...BUT GIVEN THAT STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER N/NE...IT APPEARS THE HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS CNTRL/NRN OK. ..RACY.. 09/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33130140 34150146 34779696 34149704 33899799 33459905 32979940 32829996 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 07:36:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 02:36:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509150736.j8F7aien001874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150735 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-150800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK AND PARTS OF FAR NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 791... VALID 150735Z - 150800Z NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON FOR CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND FAR NRN TX. RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY N OF CDS AND EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SWRN OK/NW TX IS INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT FROM THIS AREA EWD ACROSS OK/FAR NRN TX...AS THIS ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ATOP MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORING A THREAT FOR HAIL/ HIGH WINDS. ..PETERS.. 09/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...AMA... 35090001 35689879 36749773 36899627 36909455 34939457 33919469 33379556 33369756 33369897 33249978 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 11:49:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 06:49:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509151149.j8FBmxqK016771@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151148 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-151215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN N TX/SRN OK INTO PARTS OF WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 792... VALID 151148Z - 151215Z GREATEST SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SRN OK THROUGH THE MORNING. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED AS THIS THREAT TRANSLATES EWD INTO SERN OK AND PARTS OF WRN AR. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN OK...WITH THIS REGION LOCATED TO THE N OF AN E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED GENERALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A 40 KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SRN/CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THIS MORNING...SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFTING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EWD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS OK/AR COMBINED WITH THETA-E/WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN OK THIS MORNING WITH STORMS TRAINING EWD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW. ..PETERS.. 09/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 35289855 35339687 35559508 35509379 34479358 33829428 33789656 33879847 33899979 34339980 35029923 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 16:10:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 11:10:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509151610.j8FGAHGt021426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151609 NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-151745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151609Z - 151745Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 1555Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INTENSIFYING FROM W OF ALB TO NEAR BHM...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MODIFICATION OF 12Z ALB SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS LARGELY UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. INSPECTION OF 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...IS LIKELY AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. PERSISTENT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FROM FAR SERN NY/LONG ISLAND NEWD ACROSS CT/RI AND ERN MA SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING STORMS AND THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SERN NY INTO WRN MA AND SRN VT. ..MEAD.. 09/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 42257518 43257344 43677160 43417115 42567131 41877244 41647383 41677476 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 18:44:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 13:44:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509151844.j8FIiSTl006216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151843 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR WWD ACROSS N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151843Z - 152015Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1830Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FAR SWRN AR/NERN TX WWD TO N OF MWL. AIR MASS S OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MODERATE UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70 F. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MO IS LIKELY AIDING IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL VWPS AND RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE BUOYANCY PROFILE WITH 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AR. HERE...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH MORE NORMAL ORIENTATION OF SMALL MCS OVER SWRN AR/SERN OK/NERN TX TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS MAY SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE SCALE GROWTH AND RESULTANT COLD POOL ORGANIZATION. FARTHER TO THE W ACROSS N TX...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED. ..MEAD.. 09/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...SJT... 34279378 34479283 34289138 33749119 33169146 32809469 32349832 32639926 32879908 33649562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 22:30:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 17:30:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509152230.j8FMUnU2003665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152229 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2212 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN TX AND SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 793... VALID 152229Z - 152330Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #793 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. ANOTHER WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED. TSTMS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE EWD ACROSS SRN AR AND EXTREME NERN TX...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT. UPDRAFTS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM LAYER NOTED BETWEEN H7-H5 AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING TOWARD THE MID-MS VLY. STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE REGION WHERE SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES EXIST. CURRENT TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. THUS...THE WW WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z WITH NO PLAN TO REISSUE. ..RACY.. 09/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33119522 33939419 33839252 33829221 34329156 34249091 33079232 32999405 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 19 06:36:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 01:36:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509190635.j8J6ZfId030712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190634 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-190800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SWRN WI...MUCH OF IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 799... VALID 190634Z - 190800Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING... STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN EWD EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS ASCENT ATOP CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER RELEASES 2000-3000 J/KG ELEVATED INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY GENERATE LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE APPEAR INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT AN EWD EXPANSION OF ONGOING WATCH. ..DARROW.. 09/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 38958967 41489216 43159252 43039033 39538803 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 19 22:55:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 17:55:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509192255.j8JMtVgY023111@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192254 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL/SRN IND AND OHIO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 801... VALID 192254Z - 200030Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 801. NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. INTENSE CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT BAND WHICH IS NOW SPREADING THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO SLOWLY DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS. AND...40+ KT WESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS WESTWARD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF DECATUR AND SPRINGFIELD IL BY 00-01Z. THEREAFTER...AS BOUNDARY COOLS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH...PARTICULARLY EAST/SOUTH OF WW 801...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY COOLER/MORE STABLE. ..KERR.. 09/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 38478768 39168854 39579029 40219037 40418768 40898447 40658316 39578310 38478581 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 01:19:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 20:19:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509200119.j8K1JQcT005861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200118 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0818 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 802... VALID 200118Z - 200315Z NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW ORIENTED EAST-WEST ROUGHLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE 05-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 2 INCHES ALONG BOUNDARY...AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO 3000 J/KG...WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM COLUMBIA TO ST. LOUIS...AND ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN ILLINOIS...LIKELY WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...BUT SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO SLOWLY DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS. ..KERR.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 39049207 39189018 39188870 39158801 38838727 38278785 38078849 38168939 37959180 38219320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 16:40:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 11:40:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509201640.j8KGebdX011987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201639 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-201815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MD THROUGH CNTRL VA INTO N-CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201639Z - 201815Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 45-50 KT MID-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA TRANSLATING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WITH DOWNWIND REGION OF IMPLIED ASCENT BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION. RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE SKIES E OF THE APPALACHIANS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F...AIR MASS HAS BECOME NEARLY UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z RNK AND IAD SOUNDINGS/. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS ALONG WEAK LEE TROUGH. DEVELOPING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OBSERVED ON MORNING RAOBS AND CURRENT VWPS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... 36668010 38007875 38817796 39167744 39127683 38497660 36167878 35997987 36418022 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 18:44:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 13:44:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509201844.j8KIi9Kr006159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201842 FLZ000-202045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FLA/FLA KEYS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 803... VALID 201842Z - 202045Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS...AS NE QUADRANT CONVECTIVE BANDS OF HURRICANE RITA ROTATE THROUGH SOUTH FLA. THUS A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE NEEDED BY 21Z /WW 803 EXPIRATION TIME/ FOR ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AS WW 803. CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE NE QUADRANT OF HURRICANE RITA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE WWD INTO SOUTH FLA OVER THE NEXT 6+ HRS. RECENT MODIFIED VWP DATA FROM MIA INDICATES 150-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH GIVEN OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS FROM 120 DEG AROUND 40 KTS. ADDITIONALLY...THE 18Z EYW SOUNDING INDICATED AROUND 50 KTS OF 0-1 KM VECTOR SHEAR. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATIONAL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. 18Z EYW SOUNDING INDICATES A NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THAT OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER FARTHER NORTH...FROM THE UPPER KEYS NWD TO THE NRN MIAMI METRO SUBURBS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSOLATION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/PARCEL ACCELERATION AND HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..CROSBIE.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 26838144 24488249 24478058 26807951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 19:57:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 14:57:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509201957.j8KJvRrA028875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201956 ARZ000-202130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201956Z - 202130Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO S OF ARG TO S OF FYV AND THEN WWD ACROSS NRN OK. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S INVOF THIS FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. LOCAL VWPS/PROFILERS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIGHT WLY WINDS ABOVE GROUND VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE WITH ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. CONTINUED HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA... 35629431 36069422 36309317 36329182 36299117 36099063 35809042 35349053 35009119 35089212 35129340 35279408 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 20:17:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 15:17:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509202017.j8KKHG26010719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202014 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-202215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...AND SRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202014Z - 202215Z SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DE...ERN/SRN MD AND SRN NJ. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. GIVEN LIMITED SPATIAL AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED IN SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OF MD NEWD INTO SRN NJ. AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WAS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /AROUND 35 KTS / AND MODERATE WIND FIELDS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL DMGG WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE. ..CROSBIE.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... 39297458 39467501 39297564 38497664 38297503  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 22:53:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 17:53:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509202253.j8KMrc3c013781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202252 NCZ000-VAZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...CNTRL/ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 804... VALID 202252Z - 210015Z CONTINUE WW. WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH VIRGINIA...AND REMAINS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A NARROW BROKEN BAND FROM THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO THE DANVILLE AREA. CLUSTER OF STORMS WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF DANVILLE APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EVOLUTION OF A SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEAKENS INHIBITION NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE RALEIGH-DURHAM AREA. THIS IS ON NOSE OF PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK...ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT BEYOND NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BUT...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. ..KERR.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP... 35917999 36537932 36717842 36577758 36187717 35557778 35207839 34907942 35087983 35418031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 23:38:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 18:38:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509202338.j8KNcB4U000762@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202336 CAZ000-210030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SAN JOAQUIN...SRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 202336Z - 210030Z STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO ADJACENT COASTAL RANGES...HAVE SUPPORTED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN CYCLONIC ARC ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER JET. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS DEEPER INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THEREAFTER...WITH ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ..KERR.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR... 38552225 38872125 38402050 37681962 37061937 35811934 35881988 36152004 36982033 37662110 37932168 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 00:33:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 19:33:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509210033.j8L0XkKZ026798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210032 NCZ000-VAZ000-210130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SE VA...N CNTRL/ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 804... VALID 210032Z - 210130Z EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WITH UPPER FORCING EAST OF THE RALEIGH-DURHAM AREA...AND SOUTH OF NORFOLK VA...INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. GIVEN COOLING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE TO ALLOW REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 804 TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 01Z. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 03-04Z... BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 09/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 36297885 36727817 36867715 36867671 36477633 35907633 35187721 34807878 35207894 35707912 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 00:48:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 19:48:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509210048.j8L0mc0n001377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210047 FLZ000-210245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FLA AND THE FLA KEYS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 805... VALID 210047Z - 210245Z GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS WWD ACROSS FAR SRN FLA AND THE FLA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 805 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z...GIVEN CONTINUED WWD MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE RITA AWAY FROM THE REGION ALONG WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE GREATER MIAMI METRO AREA AS PRIMARY STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND WILL REMAIN SW OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CELL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AND THUS WW WILL NOT BE CLEARED ATTM FOR THIS AREA. BOTH MIA AND EYW 00Z SOUNDINGS AND VWP/S STILL INDICATE MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR / 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2/. GIVEN A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE. AS LOW LEVELS COOL/STABILIZE...TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE RITA AWAY FROM THE AREA...A NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED AFTER 05Z. ..CROSBIE.. 09/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 26297996 26338173 24458234 24448062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 20:25:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 15:25:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509212025.j8LKPY4j002234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212024 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-212200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL WI...SRN MN...EXTREME ERN SD...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212024Z - 212200Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED ON SFC MAP FROM NEAR AUW-HCD TO SFC LOW OVER S-CENTRAL SD. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SFC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS GREATEST MOISTURE IN AN EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY AIDED PLUME FROM MSP AREA SWD TOWARD FSD THEN SEWD TO NEAR SUX...WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S F. FARTHER E...MOISTURE FIELD IS MORE FRAGMENTED WITH DEW POINTS AS LOW AS 40S/50S IN ERN IA/SRN WI AND MID 60S JUST N OF SFC WARM FRONT. CINH APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER N-CENTRAL WI FRONTAL SEGMENT WHERE TEMPS ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT AS WARM AS FARTHER SE...AND VIS IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTIVE TOWERS BETWEEN LANGLADE AND EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW ACROSS MN SHOULD BE DELAYED FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS BY STRONGER CAPPING...HOWEVER INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. CAP STRENGTH INCREASES EVEN MORE WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM WRN PORTION OF MN/IA BORDER...BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...MORNING 700 MB ANALYSES AND RUC CINH PROGS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL INTO SD AND NWRN IA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS WHOLE CORRIDOR. PROFILERS...VWP AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS ALL SHOW ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH UP TO 200 J/KG ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT. ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS MORE DEPENDENT ON STORM SCALE AND LOCALIZED BOUNDARY PROCESSES. ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44659700 45109655 45439487 45718988 45638911 45248854 44928842 44778861 44598899 44478997 44269289 43739513 43389616 43209660 43289705 44109708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 21:05:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 16:05:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509212105.j8LL5RFR028842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212104 WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-212300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN UT...WRN CO AND SWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212104Z - 212300Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN UT. OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE NEED FOR A WW. LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES CIRRUS WAS CLEARING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ERN UT. CONSEQUENTLY...CONTINUED SFC HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR / AROUND 50 KTS ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE. FURTHER NW...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OVER NRN UT AND FAR SWRN WY BEFORE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 09/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH... 42181065 41591326 41121366 39971346 39491105 38491151 37941140 37721062 38100885 39310790 40160741 41100741 42350850 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 00:27:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 19:27:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509220027.j8M0Ra5l007225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220026 WIZ000-MNZ000-220200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 806...807... VALID 220026Z - 220200Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A STORM COMPLEX EXPANDS AND MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN WI. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BY LATER THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN WI. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG NEAR THE FRONT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE BECOMING MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A 78 MPH WIND REPORTED RECENTLY NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BECOME WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL BY THE MID TO LATE-EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 09/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD... 44259121 43659417 43809527 44479570 45159471 45799172 46068940 45758865 45168841 44668869 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 02:14:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 21:14:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509220214.j8M2E8hW028513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220213 WIZ000-MNZ000-220345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 806...807... VALID 220213Z - 220345Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE REGION...THOUGH OVERALL INTENSITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. ATTM...WW/S EXPECTED TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. EARLIER INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT EWD INTO LESSER INSTABILITY/DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER WI. RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SWRN MN...WHERE AREA REMAINS QUITE CAPPED. HOWEVER WITH WSWLY LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS IA/SERN MN...ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BACKBUILD WITH ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO CENTRAL MN. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING SEWD INTO SWRN MN/SERN SD OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...EXPECT WW/S WILL EXPIRE. ..EVANS.. 09/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD... 43559422 44489536 45099550 45499259 45678952 44828912 43889197 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 18:09:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 13:09:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509221809.j8MI9KNL016459@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221808 MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-222015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LOWER MI...SRN LM...SRN WI...EXTREME NRN IL...SWRN LH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221808Z - 222015Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING EWD 25-35 KT ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL -- WHICH HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL SO FAR...APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH MORE DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND HAIL EVENTS BECOMING PROBABLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW ACROSS ERN LM...COLD FRONT WWD TO BETWEEN MSN-MKE AND SWWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN IA. COMBINED WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED SEWD ACROSS EXTREME SWRN LOWER MI TO VICINITY IND. TSTMS OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN LOWER MI ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED BUT STILL CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WITH 50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES FROM 300-800 J/KG ACROSS SRN LOWER MI. AIRMASS BECOMES CLOSER TO SFC-BASED AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS LM TOWARD WI/IL BORDER...THOUGH ROUGHLY 50-100 J/KG CINH STILL NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME EVEN IN THAT AREA BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE OVER LATTER AREA WITH MLCAPES POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG ONCE TEMPS REACH MID 80S F. SWLY WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER RESULT IN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOWS AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT. STILL...HEATING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH NEXT 2-3 HOURS FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS -- PARTICULARLY FROM SWRN LOWER MI WWD. ..EDWARDS.. 09/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... 42158313 41918583 41988839 42338934 42968920 43448804 44128239 43868231 43498227 43008239 42938247 42828247 42718250 42638250 42548265 42438275 42378288 42338301 42288306 42178313 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 20:49:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 15:49:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509222049.j8MKnLCL010630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222048 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LOWER MI...SRN LM...NERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808... VALID 222048Z - 222145Z SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS NRN PORTION WW -- MAINLY IN FORM OF LARGE HAIL OVER SERN MI AND MIX OF WIND AND HAIL FROM SWRN LOWER MI ACROSS LM. POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT SWD WITH TIME ACROSS LOWER MI AS CONVECTION TO THE W PREFERENTIALLY MOVES INTO MORE UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIR MASS THAT HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND RAOB CHARTS INDICATE WEAKEST SBCINH OVER AREAS ADJOINING LM ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IL...WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED. THEREFORE...CONVECTION MAY BACKBUILD FROM LM ACROSS NRN IL. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS OVER IL WILL REMAIN STRONGER CAP...ALONG WITH VEERED WARM SECTOR FLOW AND RESULTANT WEAKNESS OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OUTFLOW AIDED COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SRN LM WWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS CHI METRO AREA TO JUST S RFD. EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SWD 10-15 KT THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA...WHILE REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY OVER SWRN LOWER MI. ..EDWARDS.. 09/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... 41458904 42608901 43058275 41918272 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 23:14:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 18:14:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509222314.j8MNEZRc031826@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222313 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-230045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...SRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808... VALID 222313Z - 230045Z A WAVY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS...EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MI WWD TO ALONG THE OH/IND/MI BORDER THEN WWD INTO GARY INDIANA AND NRN IL. A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A 1008 MB LOW NW OF DETROIT SWWD ACROSS CHICAGO THEN INTO ECNTRL IA. A SMALL WARM SECTOR REMAINS AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN IND/NWRN OH INTO EXTREME SERN LWR MI. MAIN BATCH OF TSTMS HAS CONGEALED INTO A LINEAR MCS AND WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE EWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO. RECENTLY...NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW AND SWLY LLJ AXIS VCNTY ANGOLA IND. THESE STORMS MAY CLIP AREAS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE WW ACROSS EXTREME NWRN OH AND MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. MEANWHILE...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN LWR MI WWD TO THE CHICAGO AREA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ATOP THE COLD DOME IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER REMAINS FAVORABLY SHEARED FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/CINH INCREASES. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AUGMENTING STORMS CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY EWD INTO SWRN ONT WITH A DECREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. ..RACY.. 09/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... 41558882 42498888 42998284 41958288 41578314 41348562 41288887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 23 01:45:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 20:45:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509230145.j8N1jQBk015087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230144 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0844 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL AND SRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808... VALID 230144Z - 230215Z VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808 EXPIRES AT 02Z AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED. THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE SWD THROUGH NRN PARTS OF IL-IN-OH. A FEW TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS SRN LWR MI AND ARE LIKELY ROOTED ATOP THE DEEPENING FRONTAL SLOPE. STRONGEST TSTMS EXIST ACROSS NERN IN AND NWRN OH...CLOSER TO THE WARM SECTOR/LLJ. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT...THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL TO PRECLUDE A NEW WW. ..RACY.. 09/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 41558874 41888871 42858257 41438286 40988311 40938633 41128859 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 24 22:58:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2005 17:58:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509242257.j8OMvl2c007078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242257 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB/ERN CO/WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242257Z - 250030Z ...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR TSTMS IS INCREASING INVOF OF LEE TROUGH... TSTMS NOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG LEE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR MCK SWWD TO GLD/LAA. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT /PER MCCOOK NEB PROFILER/ WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IS GREATER FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB...AND THIS MAY BE AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY. WILL MONITOR THE AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. ..TAYLOR.. 09/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37000195 36970343 37470377 40620152 41409961 41099912 39070009 37040132 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 24 23:08:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2005 18:08:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509242308.j8ON8Ulh010711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242307 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...MUCH OF MS EXTREME WRN TN AND CNTRL/SRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 815...816... VALID 242307Z - 250030Z TS RITA WAS CENTERED VCNTY KSHV LATE THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS LOCATED ACROSS SERN OK/SWRN AR. AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVELS HAS RESULTED IN A BACKED FLOW REGIME ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MS...NERN LA AND SRN AR WITH VERY STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR. SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING ABOUT RITA WITH TWO PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONES DRIVING TSTM BANDS: ONE FROM CNTRL AR ACROSS CNTRL MS AND ANOTHER FROM NERN LA INTO SWRN MS. AS THE STORMS TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SEVERAL TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. AS RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD...THE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL EDGE NWD. BUT...OUTER SPIRAL BANDS/TSTMS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...WITH CONVECTION CONTRACTING TOWARD THE CENTER. THIS PROCESS MAY BE SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED...SO A LINGERING TORNADO THREAT MAY LAST INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS AT LEAST NWRN MS...AND PARTS OF ERN AR. THIS MAY NECESSITATE ADDITIONAL WATCHES AFTER 02Z. ELSEWHERE...THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TORNADO THREAT ACROSS SRN LA AND SRN MS. CONVECTION MAY INCREASE OVER THE WATER AND MOVE TOWARD THE SHORELINE LATER IN THE EVENING. BUT...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES/MOVES OVER THE LAND. ..RACY.. 09/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... 29899104 31439171 32169261 34289348 35839337 35718976 34348926 29868787 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 00:44:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2005 19:44:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509250044.j8P0iLY5011118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250043 NEZ000-250215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB/SERN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 814... VALID 250043Z - 250215Z ...THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... TSTMS HAVE MAINLY DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH AND TORNADO THREAT HAS REMAINED LIMITED. SUPERCELL NOW AFFECTING ANTELOPE/BOONE COUNTIES MAY POSE A TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH OLD OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. PROFILER DATA FROM NELIGH NEB SUGGESTS VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS OR AN ISOLD TORNADO WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT AND CURVED HODOGRAPH RESULTING FROM BACKED WIND FIELD. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE OTHER SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. SEVERAL LEFT-SPLITTING STORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED INCLUDING CELL NOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 814 NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. ..TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 40739819 40030123 40540154 41870055 42489872 42659679 41569621 41109648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 03:42:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2005 22:42:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509250342.j8P3gUv5012678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250341 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2273 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA/FAR SE SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 814... VALID 250341Z - 250445Z REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 814 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 04Z...WITH A WATCH REPLACEMENT NOT EXPECTED. TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 814...WITH PRIMARY HAZARD NOW ISOLD LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BULK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NEB ARE OCCURRING WELL WITHIN ELEVATED POST-COLD FRONTAL REGIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR SFC-FRONTAL ACTIVITY ONGOING ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 IN SCNTRL NEB. KUEX VAD IN CONJUCTION WITH REGIONAL PROFILER NETWORK SUGGESTS 30-40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH SWD SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERNIGHT. AMPLE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPE -- AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG OVERNIGHT -- WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..GUYER.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41629606 40879779 40749958 41880014 43069857 43629559 43219518 42239570 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 07:17:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 02:17:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509250717.j8P7HHRB022176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250715 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-250845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2275 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...NRN NEB...SRN MN CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 250715Z - 250845Z RISK FOR LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TOTALS WITH PERSISTENT/SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING CELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS... SUPPRESSING NOSE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE. STABILIZATION OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING LARGE HAIL THREAT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY...AND FOCUS FOR PERSISTENT/TRAINING CONVECTION...THROUGH 12Z. FARTHER UPSTREAM...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT TRAILING EDGE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO FINALLY SHIFT INTO OR EAST OF MITCHELL BY DAYBREAK. ..KERR.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43220093 44249929 44629843 44849660 44719533 44689329 43809171 43459210 43439410 43269599 43099711 43279816 43149838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 08:08:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 03:08:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509250808.j8P88JV3005831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250807 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-250900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AR...MS...ERN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 817... VALID 250807Z - 250900Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 09Z. LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...NOW SOUTH OF HOT SPRINGS AR...IS BEGINNING TO TAKE MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO EVOLVE IN CONFLUENT ZONE ON ITS EASTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...SUPPORTED BY INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW TONGUE OF MID 70S DEW POINTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THOUGH MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS SLOWLY RISING...WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL INTO...AND LIKELY THROUGH...THE DAYTIME HOURS. THROUGH DAYBREAK...RISK FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO NARROW MOIST AXIS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SOUTH OF GREENVILLE. HOWEVER...AFTER DAYBREAK ...HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY SHIFT INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD...AND SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES BENEATH DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. ..KERR.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... 36339312 36349009 31288895 31289182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 14:33:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 09:33:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509251433.j8PEXR7t014686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251432 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251432 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-251600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...ERN AR...WRN/MID TN...NWRN AL...MO BOOT-HEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 818... VALID 251432Z - 251600Z WW WILL BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 18Z EXPIRATION. BECAUSE OF ARCHING GEOMETRY OF THREAT...TWO WWS MAY BE NEEDED -- ALIGNED NEARLY SW-NE OVER PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL MS AND SE-NW FARTHER N. PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN TN AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS NERN AL AND MID TN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK WARM FRONT AND CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM NEAR MEM SEWD ACROSS NERN MS AND NWRN/CENTRAL AL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL REMAIN SO FOR LONGER TO ITS N WHERE PRESSURE FALLS WILL KEEP SFC FLOW RELATIVELY BACKED. STRONGEST BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN S OF WARM FRONT AND AWAY FROM THICKEST CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE WITH 0-1 KM SRH RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG S-CENTRAL MS TO 800 J/KG WRN TN. COLDEST IR CLOUD TOPS AND MOST FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING REMAIN OVER SWRN/CENTRAL MS WHERE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE INDICATED...HOWEVER AIR MASS FARTHER NE SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH TIME THROUGH DIABATIC HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION. SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME ACROSS PORTIONS SRN MS AS CENTRAL CORE OF RITA REMNANTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS AR. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING -- WITH PRESSURE FALLS RETREATING AWAY FROM AREA -- SHOULD RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE VEERED SFC FLOW AND CORRESPONDING REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER STORMS MAY ROTATE IN MEANTIME WITH LINGERING TORNADO POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EVIDENT FROM NEAR HEZ NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL MS. BEHIND THAT BAND...EVEN MORE VEERED FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR S OF CIRCULATION CENTER...AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW NEAR CENTER -- INDICATE WRN PORTION WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK... 33238756 31988842 31378928 31219078 31389138 31649166 31979157 32399106 33329016 34389011 35219055 35899138 36219180 36419172 36569014 36438835 35988765 35248734 34418729 33468753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 14:39:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 09:39:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509251439.j8PEd1AL017281@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251438 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251438 COR ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-251600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0938 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...ERN AR...WRN/MID TN...NWRN AL...MO BOOT-HEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 818... VALID 251438Z - 251600Z CORRECTED FOR DIRECTIONAL TYPO WW WILL BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 18Z EXPIRATION. BECAUSE OF ARCHING GEOMETRY OF THREAT...TWO WWS MAY BE NEEDED -- ALIGNED NEARLY SW-NE OVER PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL MS AND SE-NW FARTHER N. PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN TN AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS NWRN AL AND MID TN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK WARM FRONT AND CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM NEAR MEM SEWD ACROSS NERN MS AND NWRN/CENTRAL AL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL REMAIN SO FOR LONGER TO ITS N WHERE PRESSURE FALLS WILL KEEP SFC FLOW RELATIVELY BACKED. STRONGEST BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN S OF WARM FRONT AND AWAY FROM THICKEST CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE WITH 0-1 KM SRH RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG S-CENTRAL MS TO 800 J/KG WRN TN. COLDEST IR CLOUD TOPS AND MOST FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING REMAIN OVER SWRN/CENTRAL MS WHERE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE INDICATED...HOWEVER AIR MASS FARTHER NE SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH TIME THROUGH DIABATIC HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION. SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME ACROSS PORTIONS SRN MS AS CENTRAL CORE OF RITA REMNANTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS AR. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING -- WITH PRESSURE FALLS RETREATING AWAY FROM AREA -- SHOULD RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE VEERED SFC FLOW AND CORRESPONDING REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER STORMS MAY ROTATE IN MEANTIME WITH LINGERING TORNADO POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EVIDENT FROM NEAR HEZ NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL MS. BEHIND THAT BAND...EVEN MORE VEERED FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR S OF CIRCULATION CENTER...AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW NEAR CENTER -- INDICATE WRN PORTION WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK... 33238756 31988842 31378928 31219078 31389138 31649166 31979157 32399106 33329016 34389011 35219055 35899138 36219180 36419172 36569014 36438835 35988765 35248734 34418729 33468753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 15:26:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 10:26:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509251526.j8PFQFKU004592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251432 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251432 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-251600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...ERN AR...WRN/MID TN...NWRN AL...MO BOOT-HEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 818... VALID 251432Z - 251600Z WW WILL BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 18Z EXPIRATION. BECAUSE OF ARCHING GEOMETRY OF THREAT...TWO WWS MAY BE NEEDED -- ALIGNED NEARLY SW-NE OVER PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL MS AND SE-NW FARTHER N. PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN TN AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS NERN AL AND MID TN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK WARM FRONT AND CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM NEAR MEM SEWD ACROSS NERN MS AND NWRN/CENTRAL AL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL REMAIN SO FOR LONGER TO ITS N WHERE PRESSURE FALLS WILL KEEP SFC FLOW RELATIVELY BACKED. STRONGEST BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN S OF WARM FRONT AND AWAY FROM THICKEST CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE WITH 0-1 KM SRH RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG S-CENTRAL MS TO 800 J/KG WRN TN. COLDEST IR CLOUD TOPS AND MOST FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING REMAIN OVER SWRN/CENTRAL MS WHERE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE INDICATED...HOWEVER AIR MASS FARTHER NE SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH TIME THROUGH DIABATIC HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION. SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME ACROSS PORTIONS SRN MS AS CENTRAL CORE OF RITA REMNANTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS AR. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING -- WITH PRESSURE FALLS RETREATING AWAY FROM AREA -- SHOULD RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE VEERED SFC FLOW AND CORRESPONDING REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER STORMS MAY ROTATE IN MEANTIME WITH LINGERING TORNADO POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EVIDENT FROM NEAR HEZ NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL MS. BEHIND THAT BAND...EVEN MORE VEERED FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR S OF CIRCULATION CENTER...AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW NEAR CENTER -- INDICATE WRN PORTION WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK... 33238756 31988842 31378928 31219078 31389138 31649166 31979157 32399106 33329016 34389011 35219055 35899138 36219180 36419172 36569014 36438835 35988765 35248734 34418729 33468753  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 15:37:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 10:37:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509251536.j8PFaxOH008612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251438 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251438 COR ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-251600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0938 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...ERN AR...WRN/MID TN...NWRN AL...MO BOOT-HEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 818... VALID 251438Z - 251600Z CORRECTED FOR DIRECTIONAL TYPO WW WILL BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 18Z EXPIRATION. BECAUSE OF ARCHING GEOMETRY OF THREAT...TWO WWS MAY BE NEEDED -- ALIGNED NEARLY SW-NE OVER PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL MS AND SE-NW FARTHER N. PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN TN AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS NWRN AL AND MID TN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK WARM FRONT AND CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM NEAR MEM SEWD ACROSS NERN MS AND NWRN/CENTRAL AL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL REMAIN SO FOR LONGER TO ITS N WHERE PRESSURE FALLS WILL KEEP SFC FLOW RELATIVELY BACKED. STRONGEST BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN S OF WARM FRONT AND AWAY FROM THICKEST CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE WITH 0-1 KM SRH RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG S-CENTRAL MS TO 800 J/KG WRN TN. COLDEST IR CLOUD TOPS AND MOST FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING REMAIN OVER SWRN/CENTRAL MS WHERE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE INDICATED...HOWEVER AIR MASS FARTHER NE SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH TIME THROUGH DIABATIC HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION. SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME ACROSS PORTIONS SRN MS AS CENTRAL CORE OF RITA REMNANTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS AR. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING -- WITH PRESSURE FALLS RETREATING AWAY FROM AREA -- SHOULD RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE VEERED SFC FLOW AND CORRESPONDING REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER STORMS MAY ROTATE IN MEANTIME WITH LINGERING TORNADO POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EVIDENT FROM NEAR HEZ NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL MS. BEHIND THAT BAND...EVEN MORE VEERED FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR S OF CIRCULATION CENTER...AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW NEAR CENTER -- INDICATE WRN PORTION WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK... 33238756 31988842 31378928 31219078 31389138 31649166 31979157 32399106 33329016 34389011 35219055 35899138 36219180 36419172 36569014 36438835 35988765 35248734 34418729 33468753  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 18:22:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 13:22:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509251822.j8PIMaMv016201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251821 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251821 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-252015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...AL...MID TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 819...820... VALID 251821Z - 252015Z AS OF 18Z...SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING NNEWD 35-40 KT ACROSS MS/AL BORDER REGION BETWEEN CBM...MEI...TCL AND MSL. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS MAY EVOLVE FROM TOWERS/ECHOES W MGM AND SW BHM. POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY AFFECT BHM AND HSV VICINITIES WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS. PRIMARY CONFLUENCE BAND -- E OF WHICH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MAXIMIZED DUE TO LACK OF VEERED/WLY FLOW -- EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS MEI AREA TO JUST NE HBG...AND MAY SPAWN A FEW MORE SUPERCELLS BEFORE WINDS VEER AND BOTH CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WEAKEN. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS NRN AL AND SRN MID TN...AHEAD OF MS/AL BORDER AREA SUPERCELLS AND AHEAD OF NEWER CONVECTIVE TOWERS SW OF BHM. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN AL AND MID TN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...IN RESPONSE TO ISALLOBARIC FORCING RELATED TO NEWD EJECTION OF LOW CENTER OVER NERN AR. NARROW CORRIDOR OF 800-1200 J/KG MLCAPE IS EVIDENT ACROSS W-CENTRAL/NWRN AL JUST AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND...AIDED BY DIABATIC SFC HEATING OF INFLOW SECTOR...LOW LEVEL WAA AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW 70S F. AIR MASS FARTHER N INTO MID TN -- N OF DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT -- IS ONLY MARGINALLY BUOYANT ATTM BUT MAY STILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE. BOTH WWS MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND WRN EDGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS....WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING LIFT AND SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX... 31618720 31158806 31128974 31449146 32739011 33918883 35438824 36558855 36628682 36388612 34988557 33838539 33288542 32098658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 20:25:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 15:25:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509252025.j8PKPBWT011947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252024 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-252200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2279 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB/NE KS/SRN IA/NRN MO/WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252024Z - 252200Z ...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/SRN IA/SERN NEB... LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY...THE REMNANTS OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM SERN NEB INTO SRN IA. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL ZONE IS LOCATED FROM SERN NEB INTO CNTRL KS/NW OK. DEEPER MIXING IS OCCURRING NEAR THE IA BOUNDARY WITH AN AGITATED ZONE OF CUMULUS NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. MODIFIED SOUNDING 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING INDICATES CAP IS WEAKENING ACROSS NE KS AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MIXING ALONG FRONTAL ZONES COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY MAY YIELD SFC BASED TSTMS WITHIN 2-3 HOURS. IF STORMS FORM...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS INDICATED ON AREA PROFILERS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL THE GREATEST THREAT. ..TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39989050 38919753 39559807 40799714 41229273 41389052 40778991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 20:43:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 15:43:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509252042.j8PKghCM020105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252041 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...AL...MID TN. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 819...820... VALID 252041Z - 252215Z CONTINUE WWS ALONG/AHEAD OF MAJOR CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM WRN PORTION MID TN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN MS. TORNADO REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM SUPERCELLS OVER TUSCALOOSA...WINSTON AND FAYETTE COUNTIES AL DURING PAST HOUR. ENVIRONMENT FROM CENTRAL MS TO EXTREME NRN AL AND SRN MID TN REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...INVOF AXIS OF GREATEST BUOYANCY...AND AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NARROW CORRIDOR OF 500-1500 SBCAPE AND 250-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN INFLOW REGION OF ACTIVITY OVER ERN MS AND W-CENTRAL/NWRN AL. BUOYANCY DIMINISHES MARKEDLY WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS MID TN -- N OF WEAK WARM FRONT AND IN AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP HAS SOMEWHAT OFFSET EFFECTS OF SFC WAA. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LARGE AND FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS WHOLE CORRIDOR...I.E. 0-1 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS AROUND 35-45 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY EACH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME OVER SRN PORTION WW 820...AS DIABATIC HEATING WEAKENS AND AS PARENT LOW OVER ERN AR/MO BORDER REGION WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX... 31618720 31158806 31128974 31449146 32739011 33918883 35438824 36558855 36628682 36388612 34988557 33838539 33288542 32098658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 20:43:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 15:43:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509252043.j8PKhP2c020410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252042 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2281 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252042Z - 252215Z ...THERE IS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND WITH STORMS NOW FORMING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN IN CNTRL/ERN WY. UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL WY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD THIS AFTN INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY EARLY EVENING. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. PROFILER DATA FROM MEDICINE BOW WY SUGGEST STRONG MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60-70 KT. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ..TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT... 40970423 40950702 42560728 43840576 43900454 43690413 41750363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 20:44:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 15:44:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509252044.j8PKi4Kh020685@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252041 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...AL...MID TN. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 819...820... VALID 252041Z - 252215Z CONTINUE WWS ALONG/AHEAD OF MAJOR CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM WRN PORTION MID TN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN MS. TORNADO REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM SUPERCELLS OVER TUSCALOOSA...WINSTON AND FAYETTE COUNTIES AL DURING PAST HOUR. ENVIRONMENT FROM CENTRAL MS TO EXTREME NRN AL AND SRN MID TN REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...INVOF AXIS OF GREATEST BUOYANCY...AND AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NARROW CORRIDOR OF 500-1500 SBCAPE AND 250-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN INFLOW REGION OF ACTIVITY OVER ERN MS AND W-CENTRAL/NWRN AL. BUOYANCY DIMINISHES MARKEDLY WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS MID TN -- N OF WEAK WARM FRONT AND IN AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP HAS SOMEWHAT OFFSET EFFECTS OF SFC WAA. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LARGE AND FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS WHOLE CORRIDOR...I.E. 0-1 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS AROUND 35-45 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY EACH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME OVER SRN PORTION WW 820...AS DIABATIC HEATING WEAKENS AND AS PARENT LOW OVER ERN AR/MO BORDER REGION WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX... 31618720 31158806 31128974 31449146 32739011 33918883 35438824 36558855 36628682 36388612 34988557 33838539 33288542 32098658  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 20:45:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 15:45:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509252045.j8PKjYqf021357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252042 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2281 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252042Z - 252215Z ...THERE IS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND WITH STORMS NOW FORMING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN IN CNTRL/ERN WY. UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL WY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD THIS AFTN INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY EARLY EVENING. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. PROFILER DATA FROM MEDICINE BOW WY SUGGEST STRONG MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60-70 KT. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ..TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT... 40970423 40950702 42560728 43840576 43900454 43690413 41750363  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 23:07:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 18:07:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509252306.j8PN6l1e020810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252305 ALZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-260000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2282 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CNTRL AND NRN AL THROUGH S CNTRL TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 819...820... VALID 252305Z - 260000Z TORNADO WATCHES 819 AND 820 WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH BEFORE 00Z. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING FROM PARTS OF ERN MS INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN AL AND POSSIBLY A PART OF S CNTRL TN. EARLY THIS EVENING THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF RITA WAS OVER EXTREME NERN ARK MOVING NEWD. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG 40+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ERN MS INTO CNTRL AND NRN AL NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THE BEST COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL AL THIS EVENING WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT INTO TN WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED AND WITH EWD EXTENT TOWARD GA WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE ZONE OF ASCENT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL AND AS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND AWAY FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 33128576 32328632 31848708 31638808 31658981 32399009 33418900 34328825 35578739 35888675 35648585 34628554 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 03:15:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 22:15:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509260315.j8Q3FR1r009700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260314 ALZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-260445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2283 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 821... VALID 260314Z - 260445Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS ALONG EWD MOVING SQUALL LINE...MAINLY FROM SERN MS NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN AL. LATE THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL SCALE BOW ECHOES EXTENDS FROM NRN AL SWWD THROUGH W CNTRL AL AND INTO SERN MS. THE LINE CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD AT AROUND 20 KT AND SOME BACKBUILDING CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED OVER SERN MS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LINE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR/HELICITY ALONG A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET... FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE FORMATION. LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE STRONGER CELLS ON SRN END OF THE LINE AND UPDRAFTS MAY BE ENHANCED WITHIN STORMS THAT DEVELOP LOW-MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONES DESPITE THE LIMITED BUOYANCY. ..DIAL.. 09/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 33128576 32328632 31848708 31638808 31658981 32399009 33418900 34328825 35578739 35888675 35648585 34628554 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 15:34:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 10:34:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509261534.j8QFYQvJ028670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261533 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS/PARTS OF SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261533Z - 261700Z ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SERN MS INTO PARTS OF SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...AND SWRN GA. 14Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN AL SWWD TO THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...WITH A SECOND TROUGH/CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AROUND 45 S SEM /ALONG THE INITIAL BOUNDARY/ WNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL MS TO SRN AR. SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE ADVECTING A HIGH DEWPOINT /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S/ AIR MASS ACROSS LA INTO SERN MS/SWRN AL. APPARENT MCV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE PER SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE FL PANHANDLE...AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE SSE. IN ADDITION...THE MCV WILL LIKELY ENHANCE KINEMATICS/SRH VALUES ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF SRN AL AND POTENTIALLY SWRN GA FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO...GIVEN LOW LCLS WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS. FARTHER W...SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND W OF THE NNE-SSW ORIENTED BOUNDARY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAPPED AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...AREA VADS INDICATED A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 250-300 M2/S2. THUS...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS WARM SECTOR REGION ACROSS FAR SERN MS INTO SWRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...THEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST. ..PETERS.. 09/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30328883 30958896 31858863 32008786 32008510 31878351 29668355 29448487 29728784 29858829 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 11:10:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 06:10:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509281109.j8SB9xHI025546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281109 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-281315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2285 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO...EXTREME NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281109Z - 281315Z ZONE OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 40+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NOW SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE HAS ALREADY INCREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED TO LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH MID MORNING...AS BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...REFLECTED BY LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD...AND MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS. COUPLED WITH STRONG CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN STRONGER CELLS. WITH ONLY A GRADUAL ELIMINATION OF NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL INVERSION LAYER...AND TENDENCY OF STRONGER CONVECTION TO BE UNDERCUT BY COLD FRONT...DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH MID DAY SEEMS LIMITED. ..KERR.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37509715 38909534 39579381 38849324 37979362 36819448 36219528 36379616 36739700 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 16:58:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 11:58:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509281657.j8SGvW00023873@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281656 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-281830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NERN/ERN MO AND WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281656Z - 281830Z ISOLATED HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN/ERN MO AND THEN SPREAD EWD INTO WRN IL. NEW DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL MO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CENTRAL MO COUNTIES OF PETTIS/SRN SALINE AND WRN COOPER. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP ACROSS THIS REGION PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. NONETHELESS...SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL MO IS FUELING THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER OK INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO WHERE MUCAPE RANGES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX...WHERE LLJ IMPINGES ON THIS ACTIVITY. EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL. IF STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...THEN STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE A THREAT. ..PETERS.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 38129355 39569266 40409183 41159097 41208940 38538997 38189113 38029277 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 17:17:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 12:17:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509281716.j8SHGqjI007117@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281715 FLZ000-GAZ000-281915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA AND SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281715Z - 281915Z INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA NWD INTO SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTAIN POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WW...HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS CONVECTION INCREASES. AT 17Z...SLOW-MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO HAVE ROTATED ENEWD TO A POSITION NEAR MLB ALONG THE E-CENTRAL FL COAST PER RECENT WV IMAGERY. THE 12Z MIAMI AND 14Z CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES /AROUND -10C/ ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW...CONTRIBUTING TO 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...WITH GENERAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MDT AND TOWERING CU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. WHILE MID-LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD BE STRONGEST EAST OF FL PENINSULA...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS /HIGH CAPE AND MINIMAL CIN/ ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PERIOD. WEAK SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT SHOULD LIMIT CELL DURATIONS...LEAVING WET MICROBURSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ..BANACOS.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 27018232 27888266 28348262 28698258 28948260 29388302 29538331 30588301 30758276 30938242 31098217 31128183 30988157 30028145 28688084 27358025 26428031 25978037 25458075 25468107 25968171 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 18:06:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 13:06:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509281805.j8SI5lku013201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281804 NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-282000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/WRN NM...SWRN CO...AND FAR E-CENTRAL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281804Z - 282000Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL/WRN NM AND SWRN CO...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS THE ERN MOGOLLON RIM IN E-CENTRAL AZ. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. NEARLY STATIONARY MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SERN UT IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SWLY 500MB WINDS /40-45 KT/ AND SFC-6KM SHEAR /50-55KT/ ACROSS NERN AZ INTO NWRN NM. DAYTIME HEATING IS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS OF SWRN CO...N-CENTRAL/WRN NM AND E-CENTRAL AZ...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL JET AXIS AND ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING SW-NE. VERTICAL MIXING AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS WILL GRADUALLY DRY LOWER-LEVELS WITH SLOWLY FALLING SFC DEWPOINTS ALREADY OBSERVED. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH COMBINATION OF INSOLATION AND COLD UPPER-LOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH MID-LEVELS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS EVENING /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...LONG-LIVED STORMS INITIATING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SPATIAL EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED BY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT BANKED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...AND BY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS S-CENTRAL NM. DRY SWLY MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO LIMIT THREAT OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF AZ...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. ..BANACOS.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ... 35010552 34550620 34140691 33740805 33570896 33530965 33820995 34140975 34570919 35520866 36640834 37210836 37840876 38140900 38680895 38680763 38500730 37840644 37430601 36610578 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 20:01:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 15:01:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509282001.j8SK11rR005620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281959 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-282100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2289 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/SWRN MO AND WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281959Z - 282100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE SSE. AREA BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW. VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TCU/CBS DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL OK NEWD INTO NERN OK/SWRN MO AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE SSEWD INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHEN COMBINED WITH MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-4000 J/KG. GIVEN THESE KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENTS OF THESE BOUNDARIES. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN... 34909698 35799614 36759549 37229504 37849404 38259316 37819237 35949215 34919318 34489434 34159534 34169680 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 21:53:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 16:53:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509282152.j8SLqRNF022824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282151 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-282315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/CENTRAL AND NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282151Z - 282315Z LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MO/NWRN AR. WE ARE MONITORING SEVERE THREAT DOWNSTREAM -- E OF WW 822 AND W OF THE MS RIVER -- AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR NEW WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE AND INSTABILITY DATA INDICATES DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS WITH EWD EXTENT TOWARD THE MS RIVER. ADDITIONALLY...RUC/NAMKF PFCS INDICATE A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER -- CONSISTENT WITH SHALLOW/STRATUS-TYPE CLOUD DECK APPARENT AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING INVOF FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ELIMINATE CAP...LESS MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME LESS VIGOROUS WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...WITH LATEST SPRINGFIELD MO WSR-88D VWP SHOWING NEAR 50 KT WLY FLOW IN THE 3 TO 6 KM LAYER...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG CONVECTIVE LINE MAY PERSIST E OF WW DESPITE DECREASING INSTABILITY. THIS MAY REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37969114 37939023 37258948 36148973 34739092 34619248 34669345 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 22:46:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 17:46:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509282246.j8SMkH4f021967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282245 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-290045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...FAR SERN OK...AND FAR SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282245Z - 290045Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NERN TX INTO SWRN AR/SERN OK MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING. ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...LIKELY PRECLUDING WW. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. AT 2230Z...SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING GENERALLY SWD...AND EXTENDED FROM 10S LBB TO SPS TO 25W MLC BEFORE ARCING NEWD INTO FAR NWRN AR. A WIND SHIFT PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT BY ROUGHLY 70NM IN N-CENTRAL TX AND ROUGHLY 30NM IN SERN OK. AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS N-S THROUGH THE DFW METRO AREA TO 10W ACT. INTERSECTION OF THIS DRYLINE-LIKE FEATURE WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX. BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXTREMELY HOT ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S IN THE DALLAS METRO AREA. ADDITIONALLY...VERTICAL MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 50-60F WEST OF MOIST AXIS/N-S BOUNDARY. LOW SUB-CLOUD RH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND MAY PRODUCED LOCALIZED AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK IN THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. OUTFLOW DOMINANT CHARACTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EVIDENT IN 0.5DEG REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM FWS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION. AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SSEWD THROUGH FAR SERN OK AND INTO SWRN AR LATER THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION...AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL ACROSS FAR NERN TX/FAR SERN OK/SWRN AR LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. ..BANACOS.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33969647 33979468 33819364 33019406 32479450 31819554 31359730 31729814 32839843 33479750 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 00:21:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 19:21:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509290021.j8T0L1ls005452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290020 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-290145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN OK/AR/SERN MO/FAR SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 822...823... VALID 290020Z - 290145Z BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION/ MID MS VALLEY. LATEST RADAR SHOWS STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF WW 822 AND THE WRN HALF OF WW 823. ADDITIONALLY...A BOW ECHO HAS EVOLVED -- AND PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE N OF WW 823 ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MO/SRN IL OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...WITH THIS BOW NOW MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER IL...EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. IN THE MEAN TIME...500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS AR AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGEST A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO 1" IN DIAMETER WILL CONTINUE. STORMS MOVING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 823/FAR SERN MO AND NERN AR SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH EWD EXTENT. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL WW INTO FAR WRN KY/WRN TN. ..GOSS.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 38258766 35288880 34009191 34159518 34999459 35359282 37599026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 02:57:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 21:57:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509290257.j8T2vAjd021963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290256 ARZ000-290400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 823... VALID 290256Z - 290400Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...THOUGH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN AND NEAR VALID PORTIONS OF WW FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF AR ATTM...THOUGH COMBINATION OF DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO A SLOW DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE. WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 29/02Z. ..GOSS.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... 34029278 35299180 35259087 34029185 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 07:41:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 02:41:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509290741.j8T7f9tv019160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290740 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-290945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2294 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290740Z - 290945Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TAKING ON INCREASING NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS SUPPORTED NARROW INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS NOT LARGE...AND STORMS LIKELY ARE FAIRLY LOW-TOPPED...ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK AND BEYOND. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF STORMS IS STILL RATHER MILD...NEAR 70F...ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...AS CONVECTION ENHANCES DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER ASSOCIATED WITH 50+ KT MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...SUPPORTING GUSTS BEYOND THAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ..KERR.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL... 43317751 41937804 40097872 38947937 37458131 36918197 36698381 37038443 38778249 40118137 41278087 42208064 43228028 43798013 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 10:11:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 05:11:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509291011.j8TABNdF009918@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291009 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/PA...NJ INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291009Z - 291115Z NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE NEED EAST/SOUTH OF WW 824 BY 12Z. A SLIGHT RISK IS BEING ADDED TO UPCOMING OUTLOOK UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS MAINTAINING NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST OF CURRENT WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING...AND TONGUE OF MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SEEM LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEPENING/INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID DAY HOURS. THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...WITH PEAK SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 70 KT POSSIBLE. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED INTO THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NEW JERSEY BY 15-16Z...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO/THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING THE NEW YORK CITY AREA BY 18Z. ..KERR.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 45977022 44327021 41867212 40127441 39727684 39807841 41417773 42577704 43807672 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 12:25:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 07:25:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509291224.j8TCOPiV025913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291223 VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2296 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/PA...NRN NJ/NEW YORK CITY AREA NORTHWARD THRU VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825... VALID 291223Z - 291400Z CONTINUE WW 825. THOUGH WEAKENING OF UPDRAFTS OCCURRED ALONG NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT PROGRESSED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK STATE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED A BIT COOLER/MORE STABLE THAN FARTHER UPSTREAM...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY BY THE 14-15Z TIME FRAME...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO THE DELAWARE AND HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY...AND THIS MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. COUPLED WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE HEATING...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE AS STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS REGION WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES...PEAK SURFACE GUSTS WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL...AS MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 50-70 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS TRANSFERRED DOWNWARD. ..KERR.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44997296 44247318 42897350 41657404 41137451 40417504 40367596 40507669 41197628 41887608 43057567 43847515 44877481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 14:59:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 09:59:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509291459.j8TExOxL031812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291458 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291458 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...NH...MA...ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825... VALID 291458Z - 291700Z INTENSE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM ERN NY AND ACROSS VT OVER THE NEXT 1.5 HOURS. PORTIONS OF MA...NH AND ME ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH BY NOON EDT. STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 40KT LATE THIS MORNING. DESPITE A DISTINCT DECREASE IN CG LTG OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS...A SEGMENT OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME STRENGTHENING FROM ESSEX COUNTY IN UPSTATE NY TO SULLIVAN COUNTY IN THE SRN CATSKILL MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS VT WAS LIMITING INSTABILITY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL SLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE LIKELY GUSTING TO AT LEAST 40-50KT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN LIMITED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN WW 825 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF NH AND INTO INTERIOR ME MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS TO BE EITHER MAINTAINED OR STRENGTHENED AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS INTO THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...AND VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY EAST OF WW 825 IN ABOUT AN HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44386932 42677082 42077158 41607319 40767488 40317620 41857602 44117526 44967422 45277133 47126946 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 16:10:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 11:10:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509291609.j8TG9qDe024773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291609 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...CT...MA...VT...NH...ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291609Z - 291745Z NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WAS MOVING EAST AT 40-45KT ACROSS VT AND WRN MA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW WATCH EAST OF THE WW 825 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS OFFICES AT BOX...GYX...AND CAR. STRONG PRE-FRONTAL GRADIENT WINDS AND ONLY MARGINALLY GREATER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA WILL REMAIN COVERED BY HIGH WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ACROSS THE REGION. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS STILL POSSIBLE IF INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND/OR CG LIGHTNING DOES INCREASE AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER COORDINATION...A NEW WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT. ..CARBIN.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 44386932 42677082 42077158 41507326 40937440 40657509 40967548 41727483 43117407 44647353 45157356 45277133 47126946 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 19:18:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 14:18:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509291917.j8TJHqVQ013781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291916 NMZ000-COZ000-292045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291916Z - 292045Z ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY. COMPACT REGION OF STRONG QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CYCLONE WAS SPREADING ESEWD FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER NM AND CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS. DESPITE LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION...STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR COULD SUSTAIN A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORM UPDRAFTS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW FREEZING LEVELS. MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT... 35770895 36740804 36980712 37050560 36630475 36090421 35370417 34880475 34530550 34140634 33870693 33680749 33570835 33770879 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 21:19:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 16:19:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509012238.j81McTKM023695@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012236 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...FAR SE CO...WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012236Z - 020030Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LAST A FEW MORE HOURS WITH THE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS NRN NM WITH THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN NM. MUCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE IN ERN NM WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT SHOULD LAST A FEW MORE HOURS AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS NE NM. ..BROYLES.. 09/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37150471 35210556 34490537 34680418 35110333 37160251 37530291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 21:43:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 16:43:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509012300.j81N0skk001470@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012259 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-020100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012259Z - 020100Z A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SRN KS AND NW OK AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EWD. THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SERN CO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING ASCENT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN KS (MUCAPE > 1500 J/KG) SHOULD RESULT IN A MULTICELL SEVERE THREAT. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. IF AN MCS DEVELOPS...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ..BROYLES.. 09/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 38369831 37849783 37399769 36599824 36279968 36320100 36900143 37750129 38290027 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 23:08:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 18:08:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509030025.j830PmcY024304@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030025 SDZ000-NDZ000-030130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-SRN ND AND NWRN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030025Z - 030130Z ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN ND AND NWRN SD THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE SE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS/GRADIENT INTO FAR SRN ND AND CENTRAL SD. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE LEE TROUGH AND RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER FAR SWRN ND /BOWMAN COUNTY/. THE AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL SD IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/ AND 35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AND THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORMS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER ERN MT...WITH ADDITIONAL ASCENT FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...IF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASES...THEN A WW WOULD BE REQUIRED. ..PETERS.. 09/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45650364 46330344 46580271 46220074 45479929 44399861 43509877 43269941 43750068 44520194 44720347 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 07:44:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 02:44:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509030902.j8392BfH025987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030900 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-031130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN ND...NERN SD...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MN. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030900Z - 031130Z TREND TOWARD INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WITH MOST INTENSE CORES PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER NWRN SD...WARM FRONT ARCHING EWD THEN SEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN SD. STRONG PATTERN OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT -- N OF WARM FRONT -- WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT PARCELS TO LFC AMIDST INCREASINGLY MOIST AND BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT ATOP RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO OVER 8 DEG C/KM AS LAYER NEAR 850 MB MOISTENS...YIELDING ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG. RUC ISENTROPIC PROGS INDICATE STRONGEST LIFT MAY EXTEND EWD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/WRN MN THROUGH 12Z...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION THERE AS WELL. MOST-UNSTABLE EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR PROFILES OF 40-50 KT INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS TO ROTATE IN MIDLEVELS...ENHANCING UPDRAFTS STRENGTH AND HAIL PRODUCTION POTENTIAL. 15-20 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IS EVIDENT FOR SLOW MOVING CONVECTION SUCH AS THAT PRESENTLY INDICATED OVER SERN ND NEAR 850 MB WARM FRONT. ..EDWARDS.. 09/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45049946 45419998 46280018 47580003 47959906 48039777 47779698 46739572 45659580 45109781 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 17:24:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 12:24:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509031841.j83IfbIk022133@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031840 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-032015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN MN...EXTREME SERN ND AND EXTREME NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031840Z - 032015Z ELEVATED TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL MN IN WAKE OF A DECAYING MCS. IF CELLS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST PROFILERS/VWP INDICATE THAT THE SWLY H95-H85 LLJ HAS REMAINED SITUATED FROM CNTRL PLAINS TO ERN SD. NOSE OF THIS JET WAS BLOWING NORMAL TO A NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN SD AND SWRN MN. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PARCELS FEEDING THE DEVELOPING TSTMS EMANATE FROM A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE CAPES/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN SD WHERE MUCAPES WERE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. AS THESE PARCELS REACH LFC NE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER AOA 40 KTS WILL LIKELY FURTHER STRENGTHEN UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL RESULT. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN LLJ ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS AND GENERALLY WEAK SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR TSTMS TO BACKBUILD AND TRAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. BUT...LONGEVITY OF THE LLJ GEOMETRY W.R.T. BOUNDARIES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH SWRN MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR W TSTMS WILL DEVELOP GIVEN THE STOUT CAP ACROSS THE ERN DAKS PER 18Z TANDAR SOUNDINGS FROM KABR. ..RACY.. 09/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 44989336 44449316 44149344 43979428 44099525 44519626 45359724 45839764 46719754 46529634 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 20:55:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 15:55:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509032212.j83MCWGm008952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032211 WIZ000-MNZ000-032315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 764... VALID 032211Z - 032315Z SEVERE TSTMS WILL CROSS PARTS OF LE SUEUR...SCOTT...RICE...AND DAKOTA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS MATURE MCS MOVES SEWD AT 40KT. RECENT DOWNWARD TREND IN VIL INTENSITY MAY BE OCCURRING ACROSS SERN MN WHERE STORM COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO OUTRUN STRONGER INFLOW ACROSS WCNTRL MN. WHILE THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL WILL SPREAD OUT OF SERN PARTS OF WW 764 BEFORE 2330Z. AREAS OF SERN MN/WRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IF IT APPEARS THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. AREAS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE MCS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CU WERE BUILDING ACROSS SWRN MN AND ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY. ..CARBIN.. 09/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 43889304 44759626 46479629 45519291 45419267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 22:31:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 17:31:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509032349.j83NnI6g007187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032346 MNZ000-040115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 764... VALID 032346Z - 040115Z WW 764 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SRN MN. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE OVER PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL MN THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR WAS BEING DIRECTED ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESULTING IN NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER DOUGLAS... POPE...AND STERNS COUNTIES IN SCNTRL MN. SHEAR AND FORCING WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SMALL MCS TO EVOLVE LATER THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AS IT SPREADS SEWD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD MOVE INTO THE SAME AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED BY EARLIER STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 09/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 46439614 45549301 43829298 44759621  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 23:39:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 18:39:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509040056.j840uZ9s027234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040054 SDZ000-NDZ000-040230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD/SRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040054Z - 040230Z TSTM MOVING EAST ACROSS CORSON COUNTY SD MAY PERSIST AND POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. IF STORMS CAN TAKE ROOT IN THIS REGION...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER INVOF DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...AND A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS WRN SD...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NCNTRL SD. THIS LONE CELL WAS TRACKING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE VERY STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AS IT TAPS GREATER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN SD. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...MAY OVERCOME MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED IF TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 09/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45370053 45650126 46230105 46279902 46049758 45729697 45179671 44769672 45180009  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 03:01:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 22:01:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509040419.j844JCu7029155@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040418 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-040545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WRN WI...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 766... VALID 040418Z - 040545Z A SEVERE MCS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE MAINTAINED INTO NRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS VEERING LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTES STRONG ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ON THE EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION/INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH OF WW 766. MCS HAS MATURED AND ACQUIRED A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SRN/SERN MN. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE STILL EVIDENT AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION BUT A MESOSCALE BOWING STRUCTURE NOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS WASECA...STEELE...AND DODGE COUNTIES IN SERN MN. CLASSIC SUMMER MCS PATTERN PERSISTS OVER SRN MN WITH PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OCCURRING BETWEEN LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FLOWS...AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FUELING REGENERATIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. MCS MOTION AS A RESULT OF STEERING FLOW AND PROPAGATION IS ALMOST DUE SOUTH WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO PARTS OF NRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 09/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 42819097 42669228 42689394 42989532 44759617 46459617 44569076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 05:56:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 00:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509040713.j847DnBW015031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040712 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-040915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...SWRN WI...N-CENTRAL/NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 766... VALID 040712Z - 040915Z ORIGINAL MCS HAS BECOME MARKEDLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND WEAKENED WHILE MOVING LARGELY S OF WW AREA INTO N-CENTRAL IA. LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP RESULTANT STABLE OUTFLOW LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN MN INCLUDING MSP AREA. THERE WAS NO 00Z MPX RAOB AVAILABLE FOR MODIFICATION...HOWEVER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDING INDICATE ACTIVITY IS ROOTED AROUND 700 MB LEVEL WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...USING MU LIFTED LAYER AS BASELINE. WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNDER AND SE OF THIS ACTIVITY FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. FARTHER W...OUTFLOW IS SHALLOWER WITH WEAKER LIFT INDICATED...DECREASING PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRESSIVELY WWD FROM AN ULM-STC LINE. SOME HAIL POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE BEYOND SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF WW. WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR INDIVIDUAL COUNTIES IN SUCH AN EVENT. HOWEVER...PRIND THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LOCALIZED/ MARGINAL THAT BULK OF WW CAN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..EDWARDS.. 09/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 42879078 44749627 46499625 44619079 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 21:15:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 16:15:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509042233.j84MXGVw003582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042232 MTZ000-050030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042232Z - 050030Z PARTS OF CNTRL MT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING AS MID/UPR LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF HIGH-BASED TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG CELL WAS MOVING INTO FERGUS COUNTY. FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STORMS. SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS SWRN ID WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTENING ATOP A RELATIVELY WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 40F. IN ADDITION TO HIGH DCAPE VALUES SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND AID UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE/INTENSITY AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. RESULTING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL MAY FURTHER ORGANIZE LATER THIS EVENING AS LEE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL MT. REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A WATCH COULD BE ISSUED IF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN OR WIDESPREAD. ..CARBIN.. 09/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 46630899 45251073 45241218 46001174 46691187 47731105 48510902 47960803 47030784 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 00:15:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 19:15:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509050132.j851WW7W004558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050131 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-050300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050131Z - 050300Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN ND AND SD. APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL...MORE THAN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE FOR VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS. FURTHERMORE...SHEAR AND MASS INFLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX SPREADS EAST AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45649776 44490002 44800023 45770012 46329995 47289971 48939949 48919733 47839686 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 03:37:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 22:37:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509050454.j854sYdl021472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050453 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND...SD...MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 767... VALID 050453Z - 050630Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN WW 767 ATTM. STRONG LLJ AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS ND WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48949890 48929550 44719676 44720007 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 06:15:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 01:15:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509050732.j857WU0Q006314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050731 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN ND...NERN SD...NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL MN. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 767... VALID 050731Z - 050930Z BULK OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9Z. MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL N OF BORDER ACROSS SERN MB...LEAVING BEHIND RELATIVELY STABLE OUTFLOW POOL ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS ORIGINAL WW THAT HAS LESSENED SEVERE POTENTIAL THERE. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING INVOF JMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF MOST FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO FILL INVOF MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. 00Z RAOBS...LAST FEW HOURS OF VWP DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE REGIME OF WEAKENING/BACKING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS ABOVE LLJ. THIS KINEMATIC PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINEAR MODE FOR CONVECTION MOVING INTO WRN MN...WITH ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES BECAUSE OF WEAKER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY. STILL...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 12Z...SUPPORTED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MOIST/40-50 KT LLJ...AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. CELLS WITHIN LINE MAY BRIEFLY PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS FOR HAIL...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK DOES NOT APPEAR ATTM TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WW FARTHER E ACROSS MORE OF NRN/WRN MN. ..EDWARDS.. 09/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 44739675 44709998 48969892 48979544 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 19:03:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 14:03:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509052020.j85KKYa2009266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052019 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-052145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052019Z - 052145Z INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER W CENTRAL SD...WITH A SLOWLY RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS N CENTRAL SD/ERN ND. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE...WITH 80S TO NEAR 90 TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS YIELDING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. HOWEVER...AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MORNING ABR /ABERDEEN SD/ RAOB DEPICTING STRONG INVERSION NEAR 800 MB. NONETHELESS...CONVECTION NOW IN BARNES/GRIGGS COUNTIES IN ND -- THOUGH LIKELY STILL ELEVATED -- HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR AS UVV ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL VORT MAX SPREADS ACROSS THIS REGION. CONTINUED ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER WEAKENING OF CAP...AND ATTM WOULD EXPECT SOME SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY 05/22-23Z. ASSUMING STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE/VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WHICH WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 09/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48639726 48599535 47139514 44699707 44559873 45009973 46829832 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 20:28:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 15:28:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509052145.j85Ljiuh023242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052144 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-052245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE...KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052144Z - 052245Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL NEB AND NRN KS. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 42980003 42829738 38669868 38700134 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 22:57:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 17:57:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509060014.j860EXOT022133@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060013 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0713 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN/NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 768...770... VALID 060013Z - 060215Z SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS ERN ND...NERN SD...AND WRN/NWRN MN THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 40-50KT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS BEING LIFTED INTO A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD INTENSE TSTMS. A BOW ECHO TRACKING NEWD AT OVER 40KT ACROSS SARGENT COUNTY ND WILL MOVE ACROSS RICHLAND COUNTY ND AND INTO WILKIN COUNTY MN BETWEEN 0030 AND 0100 UTC. FARTHER NORTH...A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS EXTENDS FROM RED LAKE AND POLK COUNTIES IN NWRN MN SWWD TO CASS AND RANSOM COUNTIES IN SERN ND. SUPERCELL IN CNTRL CASS COUNTY ATTM APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH SFC LOW ON A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS WRN MN. OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH SEVERE WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CLEARWATER...MAHNOMEN...CLAY...AND BECKER COUNTIES IN WRN MN. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 43099656 43029944 45829879 45929895 48959790 48909444 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 23:14:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 18:14:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509060031.j860VOAS029331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060030 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-060200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB/NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769... VALID 060030Z - 060200Z ...CONTINUED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND GUSTS/HAIL... BEST AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN EXTENT OF MANITOBA SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS SCNTRL NEB...WHERE MOST OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. THERE ARE SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A WWD MOVING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS WRN KS. THIS HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO A FLARE UP OF STORMS NOW OVER SHERMAN AND WALLACE COUNTIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT PER NEBRASKA PROFILER DATA/00Z NORTH PLATTE DATA WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING ISOLD SUPERCELLS...WITH A SMALL MCS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS ACROSS NEB THIS EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SVR TSTM WIND GUSTS...WITH A RECENT REPORT OF 62 MPH JUST WEST OF GLD AND 70 MPH NEAR PHELPS NEB. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CORES. ..TAYLOR.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... 38210120 38340249 39590237 41150011 41439796 39889815 38739853 38590021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 01:54:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 20:54:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509060311.j863Buwv002061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060310 WIZ000-MNZ000-060415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060310Z - 060415Z A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL MN. SEVERE SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OUT OF ERN PARTS OF WW 770 WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SCNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THIS THREAT. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD... 44149482 44099612 44929540 45759488 45809254 44269365 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 02:44:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 21:44:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509060401.j8641iLa024929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060400 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060400 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-060500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO NW/NCNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769... VALID 060400Z - 060500Z PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS ISOLD LARGE HAIL ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 769 ACROSS EXTREME SCNTRL NEB INTO NW/NCNTRL KS. REMAINING PORTION OF WW 769 MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 05Z. PRIMARY THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SRN PORTION OF WW 769 ACROSS NCNTRL/NW KS. AT 04Z...TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF WEST-EAST ORIENTED SLOW MOVING TSTMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OCCURRING FROM DECATUR COUNTY KS EWD INTO NRN OSBORNE/JEWELL COUNTIES IN NCNTRL KS...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF TSTMS WAS OCCURRING ACROSS WALLACE/LOGAN COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF I-70 IN NW KS. INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET /ALREADY 30-35 KTS PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS REGION. AMBIENT SOURCE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WITH 00Z DODGE CITY RAOB SAMPLING 1.41 INCHES. RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 IN/HR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND THREAT NOW APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/FORWARD PROPAGATION. POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR AN ISOLD/EMBEDDED LARGE HAILSTONE OR TWO GIVEN REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 05Z GIVEN DIMINISHING WIND/HAIL THREATS. ..GUYER.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... 40290075 40589916 40569763 38889784 38410017 38320160 38630207 39250203 39910150 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 03:02:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 22:02:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509060419.j864JXmO032740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060418 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-060545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MN...WRN WI...SERN SD...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 770...771...772... VALID 060418Z - 060545Z WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD INTO NWRN IA AS WW 770 EXPIRES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN TONIGHT FEATURES STRONGLY DIFFLUENT AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP 50KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. RESULTANT STRONG ASCENT IS CONTINUING TO ACT ON WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS AND FUEL WELL-ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE REGION. ONE ARCING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NRN MN INTO CNTRL MN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND MESO HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...OVER NCNTRL MN. RECENTLY...CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING ON THIS COMPLEX INDICATING PERHAPS A GRADUAL DECLINE IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...A FEW LEWP SEGMENTS WITHIN THE BOWING LINE WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE SECOND BOWING COMPLEX EXTENDS FROM WCNTRL MN ACROSS SWRN MN AND TRAILS WWD INTO SERN SD. A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND MESO HIGH EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ACROSS ERN SD. LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE REGENERATIVE DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN. LINE SEGMENTS ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS GRADUALLY ESEWD ACROSS SERN SD AND INTO NWRN IA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43119456 43079606 42929658 42959963 43749934 44209613 45309564 45959538 46749425 47939386 48569352 48459131 43569326 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 06:36:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 01:36:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509060753.j867rg0r005487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060752 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NEB...WRN/NRN IA...EXTREME SERN ND...SERN MN...W-CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 772...773... VALID 060752Z - 060915Z REMAINING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BOTH WW 772 AND 773 BEFORE SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION TIME FOR EACH...THEREFORE WWS MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE THEN. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS INDICATED FROM W MCW TO NEAR SUX AS OF 745Z...MOVING ESEWD 20-25 KT...WITH STRONGEST CORES LOCATED GENERALLY BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF MCS. ISOLATED HAIL UP TO MARGINAL SEVERE SIZES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY LESS UNSTABLE AND MORE WEAKLY SHEARED AIRMASS...SFC AND ALOFT. LARGER BUOYANCY REMAINS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE IS HIGHEST ACROSS N-CENTRAL WI...HOWEVER RAGGED/DISORGANIZED AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL IN NEAR TERM. AS A RESULT...ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42449761 42759608 43399441 44069277 44939226 44839198 44259181 43669181 42979245 42469322 41859447 41659535 41799623 42259741 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 19:02:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 14:02:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509062019.j86KJMfp020416@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062018 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-062145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062018Z - 062145Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EVOLVING WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ACROSS FAR ERN CO AND ADJACENT WRN KS/SWRN NEB. DAYTIME HEATING OF MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YIELDED 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THIS REGION. ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING INVOF BOUNDARY ATTM...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF UVV POSSIBLY RESULTING FROM WEAK VORT MAX EVIDENT OVER NERN CO. THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS MARGINAL WITH RESPECT TO LARGE-SCALE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KT BENEATH 20 KT WLYS AT MID-LEVELS IS YIELDING 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT...LATEST GRENADA AND MCCOOK WIND PROFILERS SHOW VERY WEAK FLOW FIELD IN THE LOWEST FEW KM. THEREFORE...WITH WEAKLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ATTM...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND ISOLATED. ..GOSS.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 41280285 41750201 42050064 41690025 41070038 39750052 38000042 37560132 38130275 40230247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 21:31:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 16:31:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509062248.j86MmwFF020159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062247 NEZ000-070045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062247Z - 070045Z STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NEB. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN NEB WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE AIDED ON WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT BY A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST FROM NERN CO. THIS IMPULSE IS LIKELY DRIVING ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM GRANT AND HOOKER COUNTIES SWD ACROSS MCPHERSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG ERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERSECT THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER ANTELOPE AND MADISON COUNTIES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER 20-40KT ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD FOSTER STORM PERSISTENCE WITH BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR. HOWEVER... OVERALL FORCING AND INSTABILITY APPEAR MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41719750 41360125 41540209 41730247 42010266 42440161 42619899 42479692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 03:10:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 22:10:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509070427.j874RNbH020164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070426 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070426 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-070700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB....SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070426Z - 070700Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL SD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...LARGE SCALE UPR JET COUPLING...AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS A FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST TSTMS WILL LIKELY HAVE UPDRAFTS ROOTED AROUND 700MB BASED ON LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION WERE CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY 30-40KT WLY FLOW IN THE UPR PORTIONS OF THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HAIL. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD...SWRN MN...AND PERHAPS PARTS OF NWRN IA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 09/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43019723 42779846 42839984 43050039 43490015 43979950 44379738 44429635 44399541 44289481 43999456 43449563 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 16:28:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 11:28:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509071745.j87HjA9q008241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071743 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-071945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...NE IA...CNTRL/SRN WI INTO NRN LWR MI CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 071743Z - 071945Z STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE THREAT STILL SEEMS LIMITED AT BEST...AND NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS STALLING UPSTREAM...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA...AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. BOUNDARY IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WITH SURFACE HEATING...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH PEAK HEATING SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST SOUTHEAST OF LA CROSSE INTO AREAS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF MILWAUKEE...AS DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE. CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME SOUTH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. OTHERWISE...STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..KERR.. 09/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 44649053 44708926 44838761 44998643 44978546 43898598 43108725 42868974 42649079 42539236 43009272 43869159 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 18:47:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 13:47:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509072004.j87K4xuX020408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072003 NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-072130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...NE CO...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072003Z - 072130Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN SHORT TERM...BUT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR WEST/NORTHWEST OF MCCOOK INTO AREAS JUST WEST OF MULLEN...BUT FARTHER WEST...HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG...AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE CHEYENNE WY AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS SLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER WESTERLIES...IS FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BY THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 09/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 43250420 43220301 42370184 41520216 40530221 39980293 40360377 41610414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 21:45:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 16:45:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509072302.j87N2n9f002466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072301 KSZ000-COZ000-080100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/FAR WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072301Z - 080100Z STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER WRN AND NRN NEB WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN CO. A VORTICITY MAX ANALYZED BY THE RUC IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NE CO AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPING STORMS. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SHOWN BY REGIONAL PROFILERS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE HAIL FORMATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING. ..BROYLES.. 09/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37640267 38110322 39730361 40530322 40470247 39610177 38410167 37830195 37630260 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 22:24:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 17:24:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509072341.j87NfcMu021591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072340 NEZ000-COZ000-080145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072340Z - 080145Z LARGE HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT OVER ERN WY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN NEB. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MUCAPE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE SEWD INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...BACKED SFC WINDS AND WLY FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING VERTICAL SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KT SUGGESTING A SUPERCELL THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10 C WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER MORE PERSISTENT STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 09/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... 40910269 41080374 42180399 42880338 42720197 41340185 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 00:08:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 19:08:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509080125.j881PWn0009969@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080124 SDZ000-080330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080124Z - 080330Z SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS WRN SD WILL SPREAD EWD INTO CNTRL SD. THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF THE STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN NEB. THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -7 C ACROSS WRN AND SRN SD. A CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN AND ERN SD BUT THE CAP IS WEAKENING ACROSS CNTRL SD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM/GFS/RUC SOLUTIONS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGLY VEERING WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR FROM 700 TO 300 MB AS SHOWN ON THE RAPID CITY SOUNDING. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..BROYLES.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43220039 43670178 44540215 45280129 45279968 44009881 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 05:43:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 00:43:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509080700.j8870tGM005995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080659 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-081000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 080659Z - 081000Z LARGE TSTM CLUSTER INITIALLY OVER E-CENTRAL SD IS FCST TO PERSIST...PERHAPS EXPAND AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS SWRN MN INTO NWRN IA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 11Z. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTERMITTENT -- CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF HAIL. GREATER HAZARD MAY RESULT FROM HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR COMMON WITHIN MCS...ISOLATED AREAS OF 3-4 INCHES/HOUR IN MOST INTENSE CORES OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MERGING/TRAINING OF ECHOES WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN RATES PERSISTING FOR 2 HOURS IN SOME LOCALES. 6Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW INVOF PIR...ALONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH YKN AREA...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER SW DOWN MO VALLEY. SFC WARM FRONT OVER SERN SD SHOULD DRIFT NWD AND REMAIN S OF PRIMARY MCS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG PARALLEL SEGMENT OF FRONT LOCATED NEAR 850 MB LEVEL. MCS PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT INTO MOIST 20-30 KT SWLY LLJ SHOULD KEEP OVERALL MOVEMENT S OF E...AND MAINTAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INFLOW LAYER. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN ND/CENTRAL SD -- TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES. RESULT WILL BE ELEVATED MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AMIDST ABOUT 1.25 INCH PW. CONVECTIVE MODE WITHIN MCS SHOULD BE MIX OF MULTICELLS AND SHORT-LIVED/HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS...WHERE BOTH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL RISKS WILL BE ENHANCED BY EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION WITHIN AREAS OF MIDLEVEL ROTATION. EXPECT 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS FOR ELEVATED PARCELS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 43259645 43809714 44489839 44939791 45059673 44829584 44399437 43369412 42829524 42969600 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 09:52:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 04:52:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509081109.j88B9W2k016184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081108 IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-081345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME E-CENTRAL SD...SWRN MN...NWRN THROUGH CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081108Z - 081345Z LINE OF TSTMS WITH HISTORY OF HAIL AND SUB-50KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS NWRN AND PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN IA THROUGH MIDMORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE HAIL. 6 INCH DEEP ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL WAS REPORTED IN LYON COUNTY AT ABOUT 1015Z. ALSO...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE WITH TIME AFTER SUNRISE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MESOLOW REMAINING NEAR PIR...WITH QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SEWD ACROSS YKN AREA THEN DOWN MO RIVER VALLEY TOWARD NERN MO. MCS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NE OF THIS FRONT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. MU-EFFECTIVE SHEARS 50-60 KT FAVOR MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION OF THIS ACTIVITY. LLJ WILL DIMINISH WITH WEAKENING STATE OF DECOUPLING ATOP NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER...AS FOREGOING AIR MASS DIABATICALLY WARMS. HOWEVER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE GIVEN THAT LLJ IS PERPENDICULAR TO MOTION OF ACTIVITY AND THAT MCS IS NOW COLD-POOL DRIVEN --I.E. PRIMARILY FORWARD PROPAGATIONAL. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE PARCELS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL TEMPS RISE INTO AT LEAST MID 70S F...THOUGH DIABATICALLY DRIVEN BOOST IN BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE PROBABILITY THAT STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT MAY PENETRATE RELATIVELY STABLE SUBCONVECTIVE LAYER AND REACH SFC. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MOVING FROM E-CENTRAL SD INTO SWRN MN...ATOP FRONTAL LAYER REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM NWRN IA MCS. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED BY DEPTH OF STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 42479572 43039605 43819572 44449753 45069709 44829584 44449440 43769425 42929270 41679393 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 14:40:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 09:40:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509081557.j88FvWEC019893@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081556 IAZ000-081700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 774... VALID 081556Z - 081700Z CONTINUE WW. CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA...SUPPORTED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY FORMING ON WESTERN FLANK OF SYSTEM IS OCCURRING WHERE LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INTO AREAS JUST NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF DES MOINES BY 18Z. STORMS THROUGH MID DAY APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN BASED ABOVE WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT AS WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER PROGRESSES...RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUING. ..KERR.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX... 42719456 42889391 42509293 41699260 41599381 42139483 42459482 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 16:22:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 11:22:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509081740.j88HdujJ029528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081738 ILZ000-IAZ000-081915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA INTO PARTS OF NE MO/NW IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 774... VALID 081738Z - 081915Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. GIVEN FAVORABLE CAPE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF IOWA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEMS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED EAST SOUTHEAST OF DES MOINES THROUGH THE BURLINGTON AREA...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PROPAGATION OF MOST VIGOROUS STORMS THROUGH 20-21Z. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED THROUGH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS INCREASING NEXT FEW HOURS. ..KERR.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... 42239353 41789169 41669094 41409046 40709106 40789237 41459392 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 17:44:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 12:44:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509081901.j88J15pW022019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081859 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-082100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...WRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081859Z - 082100Z CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER NWRN NEB WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN WY WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND SWRN SD. GIVEN LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE AREA DEGREE OF SVR THREAT IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. STG CONVECTION OVER WRN CHERRY COUNTY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT EXISTED BENEATH MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTION WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL WLY FLOW ABOVE ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION. THUS CONDITIONS OVER NCENTRAL NEB APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL. EXTENT OF SVR THREAT INTO ERN NEB WILL BE MITIGATED AS A STRONG CAP /> 200 J/KG OF MLCINH/ DUE TO RESIDUAL OUTFLOW EXISTS. FURTHER WEST...HIGH BASED/DEEPLY MIXED CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF SERN/ECENTRAL WY INTO SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42299923 43299987 43420057 43560181 43570358 42980409 42320399 41500396 41140372 41230195 41360048 41659968 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 18:24:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 13:24:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509081941.j88JfRsD017886@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081940 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-082115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE IA INTO PARTS OF NE MO...NW AND CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 775... VALID 081940Z - 082115Z CONTINUE WW. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND 30-35 KT...THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS WITH FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND BROADER SCALE BOW ECHO STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE READILY EVIDENT IN RADAR DATA PAST FEW HOURS. LITTLE IS EVIDENT TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS SYSTEM SPREADS ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BURLINGTON IA AREA. THEREAFTER...DRIER...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F...PROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURGING OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST ALONG GUST FRONT THROUGH THE PEORIA/SPRINGFIELD IL AREAS BY 23-00Z. ..KERR.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX... 41729058 40918888 39758869 39459043 39849156 41149278 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 21:00:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 16:00:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509082217.j88MHx5d002262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082217 ILZ000-082345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 775... VALID 082217Z - 082345Z A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMES MARGINAL EARLY THIS EVENING. A WW SE OF THE CURRENT WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ERN IA IS SUPPORTING A LINE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN IL. THE IS LINE MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND IS NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM SRN IA EWD INTO CNTRL IL AND CNTRL IND. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SHOWN BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS FAR WRN IL. EAST OF THIS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS CNTRL IL. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE THE LINE GRADUALLY DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY. ..BROYLES.. 09/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39759104 40339094 40789031 40548880 39728808 39118837 38898948 39669098 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 09:33:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 04:33:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509091051.j89ApkKf007242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091050 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-091215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN ND INTO NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091050Z - 091215Z ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING. 10Z SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED A NW-SE WARM FRONT OVER SD... WITH PERSISTENT PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ND. THESE SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE INDICATIVE OF ASCENT/WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A 35 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO ND/WRN MN. ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER SERN WY PER WV IMAGERY. CENTRAL ND TO NWRN MN ARE ALSO WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 55 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL ASCENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THIS DEEP LAYER ASCENT...LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD IS REACHING THE LFC ACROSS ND ATTM AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS WITH THE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID AND LOW LEVEL JET STREAKS ARE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO ROTATE...WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT HAIL WITH THESE ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS. ..PETERS.. 09/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 47430073 48080022 48269874 48239698 47859580 46999501 46069572 45879722 45969932 45960030 46580092 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 11:21:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 06:21:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509091239.j89CduTu013596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091238 MNZ000-WIZ000-NDZ000-091315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND / NRN MN CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091238Z - 091315Z THE AREA ENCOMPASSING ERN ND INTO NRN MN WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THE UPCOMING 13Z CONVECTIVE DAY 1 OUTLOOK (SWODY1). WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR ERN ND INTO NWRN MN...GIVEN ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BIS/ABR INDICATED A DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IN PLACE AND OCCURRING SINCE 00Z...GIVEN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS /1. OVER SERN WY...2. OVER ERN MT...AND 3. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/. IN ADDITION...THESE SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL WLY WINDS SUSTAINING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR ROTATION WITH THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 09/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... 47690022 48659958 48919896 48959739 49219488 48339112 47569085 46779216 46119287 46189604 46149855 46390012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 16:50:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 11:50:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509091808.j89I8DDc014332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091807 COZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-092000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UT...FAR NRN AZ...SWRN WY...AND FAR WRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091807Z - 092000Z INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL UT DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NRN AZ...WRN CO...AND SWRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 18Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG CLOSED LOW LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL CA/NV BORDER IS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN UPPER FORCING/DEEP PVA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT NOW ACROSS FAR WRN UT SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL UT VICINITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S IN CENTRAL UT...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO. MLCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF UPPER FORCING WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR TO 40-45KT SHOULD RESULT IN LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OF CENTRAL UT. EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION EWD INTO WRN CO AND INTO SWRN WY IS LESS CLEAR AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS HAVE COOLED THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WRN CO...HOWEVER...SOME RECOVERY IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE TSTM THREAT WILL BE MONITORED AS ACTIVITY INCREASES IN UT. ..BANACOS.. 09/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF... 38341358 41051280 41881168 41870948 41460876 40630858 38090842 37110898 36740931 36341102 36521220 37161336 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 19:38:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 14:38:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509092056.j89KuY6Y031868@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092054 NDZ000-SDZ000-092230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL NORTH DAKOTA...N CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092054Z - 092230Z THOUGH PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE SEEMS RATHER LOW...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS BECOMING FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE EAST SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK INTO AREAS WEST NORTHWEST OF ABERDEEN...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW EXCEEDS 1500 J/KG. THIS IS ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITHIN BROADER SCALE ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME. VERY WARM LAYER IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE IS CAPPING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL FORCING COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY IMPULSE IS ADDING TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO BETWEEN NOW AND THE 23-00Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 09/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 47190073 47419952 46949838 46369807 45729858 45469876 45739981 45980021 46670073 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 22:42:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 17:42:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509100000.j8A00mhE027207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092359 COZ000-UTZ000-100130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT/FAR WRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 776...777... VALID 092359Z - 100130Z SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS ERN UT AND WRN CO MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL LATER THIS EVENING. AT UPPER-LEVELS...A SWRN TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NV WITH AN EJECTING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD THROUGH ERN NV AND SRN UT. STRONG ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS ERN UT AND WRN CO WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DRYING CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING WITHIN A FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... 37551074 38931090 40021063 40561009 40640918 40360833 39340795 37710835 37120901 37040983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 00:20:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 19:20:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509100138.j8A1cXhK028140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100137 AZZ000-100300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2173 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0837 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100137Z - 100300Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS ERN AZ. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE WW. WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NV WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ THIS EVENING. THE LIFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING NWD FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH ERN AZ. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS IN SERN AZ ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. THE STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD SUSTAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 09/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 32970905 32530934 32311001 32571091 33331133 34231136 34861093 35061030 34790954 33790909 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 19:39:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 14:39:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509112057.j8BKvaFU006412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112056 NDZ000-SDZ000-112230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2174 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE NORTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112056Z - 112230Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS INHIBITION FOR MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS WEAKENING IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING TO THE EAST/ NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S...CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG...AND THIS MAY INCREASE FURTHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH PRIMARY UPPER IMPULSE IS WELL TO THE WEST...LIFTING FROM MONTANA INTO SASKATCHEWAN...MODELS SUGGEST WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING /WIND SHIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z. THIS WILL WEAKEN CAP FURTHER...AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION APPEARS TO BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF MOBRIDGE SD INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMESTOWN ND...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED. GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...A SUPERCELL OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXISTS...BUT LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..KERR.. 09/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45730002 46669932 47079847 46899738 46059716 45569770 45429828 45049905 44859990 45350031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 11:10:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 06:10:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509121228.j8CCS7VC032693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121227 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121226 WIZ000-MNZ000-121400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2175 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN MN INTO FAR WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121226Z - 121400Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING FROM SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO EAST CENTRAL MN/FAR WRN WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NEB WITH AN ASSOCIATED 40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SRN MN ATTM. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF A SWLY LLJ PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ENEWD THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MN TO FAR WRN WI. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER 12Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING BASED AROUND 850 MB AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS PRODUCING HAIL THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 09/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD... 45369589 45909535 46319421 46559306 46339237 45159279 44209333 43909390 43809494 43759592 44689593 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 18:10:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 13:10:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509121929.j8CJTFKO020362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121927 MNZ000-SDZ000-122130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL SD AND SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121927Z - 122130Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN SD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY TOWARD THIS EVENING. AT 19Z...WEAK CYCLONE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN PIERRE AND CHAMBERLAIN SD. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS REGION...WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH E-CENTRAL SD AND SWRN MN. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE PRESENT...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. SURFACE-BASED INITIATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ACROSS E-CENTRAL SD. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN SD AND NEAR PHP ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR SO PER RAP 18Z SOUNDING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SWRN WY MAY ALSO BE CONTRIBUTING TO UVV IN THIS AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. ONGOING STORMS SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY NEWD TOWARD N-CENTRAL/NERN SD WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH LONGER-LIVED CELLS. NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...THICKENING LOW CLOUDS AND ABSENCE OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS MAY PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER JET EXIT REGION MOVING NEWD THROUGH WRN KS AT THE PRESENT TIME. THIS MAY AID IN INITIATION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SD AND SWRN MN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 09/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43479846 43830115 45480103 45529704 45429523 44559467 43759493 43609567 43539719 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 21:04:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 16:04:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509122222.j8CMMAu5017144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122220 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...WRN KS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 122220Z - 130015Z ...A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND DEEPENING WLY FLOW HAVE FORCED DRYLINE EWD TO A POSITION EXTENDING FROM PHILLIPS COUNTY KS...SSWWD TO NEAR LBB IN THE TX PANHANDLE. NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM ARE SUPPORTING STRONG THERMALS ALONG A FAIRLY FOCUSED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE. IT APPEARS DEEPENING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERY WARM PROFILES INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY HAIL GENERATED WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL IN SIZE. UPDRAFT ENTRAINMENT ALONG N-S ORIENTED PORTION OF THE DRYLINE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE. ..DARROW.. 09/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 33750257 36090082 38710005 38819877 35999944 33550067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 21:08:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 16:08:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509122226.j8CMQaPQ019544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122225 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2178 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN WY...WRN SD...AND FAR NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122225Z - 130030Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN IN INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THREAT SHOULD DECREASE...ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN SD AND FAR NWRN NEB THROUGH 01Z. WW IS NOT PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AREA. FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH MOTION 240/40-45KT...WILL TRACK FROM NERN WY ACROSS WRN SD AND FAR NWRN NEB DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL PVA MOVING ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL WY. DESPITE THIS...CONVECTION IS PROCESSING BEST INSTABILITY AT THE PRESENT TIME...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ACROSS WRN SD/NWRN NEB...COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 40S SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF ONGOING ACTIVITY. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN CONVECTIVE MODE AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT. AS CONVECTION WEAKENS OVERALL...POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD LESSEN SUGGESTING THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 09/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 42730394 43760446 44720469 45280420 45450355 45570286 45560227 45290164 44630136 43890125 43210125 42830170 42720221 42630304 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 21:14:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 16:14:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509122232.j8CMW7bp022086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122231 NEZ000-KSZ000-122330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2179 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL KS...CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122231Z - 122330Z ...WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEB...INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL KS... LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING OVER NEB AS SPEED MAX APPROACHES THE CNTRL PLAINS. LATEST WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A BROAD ZONE OF MOISTENING AT MID LEVELS SPREADING ACROSS SERN CO/WRN KS...WHICH WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE DRYLINE IN NEB. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AND MINIMAL INHIBITION WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 09/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 39249982 40459945 42229973 42769777 39669801 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 22:31:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 17:31:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509122348.j8CNmlJs028739@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122347 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-130115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN SD...FAR NWRN/N-CENTRAL IA...AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 778... VALID 122347Z - 130115Z THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS ERN/SERN SD EWD INTO SWRN MN. ADDITION WW MAY BE REQUIRED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ENEWD INTO S-CENTRAL MN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG WARM FRONT EAST OF SFC LOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KINGSBURY COUNTY SD ENEWD TO YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY MN. STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SUSTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...INCLUDING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COUPLETS PER FSD 88D. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STORMS ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROCESS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILE IS EVIDENT PER FSD VAD WIND PROFILE...WITH 0-1KM SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN SD EWD INTO S-CENTRAL MN...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST AND SW OF FSD. THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CENTRAL IA LATER THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 09/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 43769889 44839888 45489329 43319340 42689886 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 00:07:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 19:07:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509130125.j8D1PhG4012152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130125 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130124 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-130300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 779... VALID 130124Z - 130300Z ...CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH... LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY APPARENTLY HAS CONTRIBUTED GREATLY TO THE DEMISE OF EARLIER SEVERE SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER OSBORNE COUNTY KS. SEVERAL STRONG UPDRAFTS REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN NEB WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS A BIT STRONGER. LATEST VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST STRONG FORCING REMAINS ABOUT 150MI UPSTREAM WHERE SRN EXTENT OF WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF IS MOVING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG LEAD CONFLUENCE ZONE LATE THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD... 39249992 40919953 42989929 42769727 39169761 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 01:19:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 20:19:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509130237.j8D2bPUG013535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130236 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-130400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 780... VALID 130236Z - 130400Z ...WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WCNTRL WI... A COMPLEX...UPWARD EVOLVING MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SRN MN THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A MVC IS FORMING WITHIN EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD NW OF THE HEAVIER CORE WEST OF STC. SEVERAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF WW...ESPECIALLY WRIGHT/SHERBURNE/ANOKA COUNTIES...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING INTO WCNTRL WI. IT APPEARS SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING DOWNSTREAM AND THIS MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL WATCH SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42609842 45519697 45229050 43509291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 04:17:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 23:17:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509130535.j8D5ZfP3031079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130535 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130534 MIZ000-WIZ000-130600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI/U.P. MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130534Z - 130600Z WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF NRN WI INTO THE U.P. MI. WELL ESTABLISHED BOW ECHO HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED AT 45-50 KT OVER NWRN WI. THIS BOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NRN WI INTO THE U.P. OF MI OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM HAS REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH 45 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP 45-50 KT REAR INFLOW JET PER MINNEAPOLIS VAD. ..PETERS.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46199143 46409067 46578906 46508745 45858693 44988790 44808978 44969097 44929141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 05:02:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 00:02:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509130620.j8D6K3Mf013341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130619 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-130715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/PARTS OF WRN WI AND FAR NRN-NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 780... VALID 130619Z - 130715Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SERN MN INTO PARTS OF WRN WI AND FAR NERN IA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDED FROM SAWYER/RUSK COUNTIES WI SSWWD TO BUFFALO COUNTY WI AND THEN WWD TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTERSECTING A BOW ECHO OVER THIS PART OF MN. THIS SRN MN BOW IS MOVING ENEWD AT 40 KT INTO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THUS... A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SERN MN THROUGH 08Z. IF THE LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER SSEWD OVER WRN WI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE ENEWD MOVING BOW ECHO OVER SRN MN. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EWD INTO WRN WI. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS THE NRN PORTION OF THE SRN MN BOW ECHO TRACKS ENEWD ATOP A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING BOW ECHO NOW OVER NRN WI. ..PETERS.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44549169 44559074 44419030 43749012 43339069 43249233 43269352 43579340 43939324 44479330 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 15:02:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 10:02:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509131620.j8DGKeL5032318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131620 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131619 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-131815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN IA/SERN MN/SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131619Z - 131815Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 13/18Z. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN IA INTO ADJACENT SERN MN AND SWRN WI...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY MSP SSWWD TO NEAR MHK. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THIS REGION...CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS WILL OCCUR. THOUGH MORNING RAOBS INDICATE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UVV INVOF FRONT/LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES -- ENHANCED BY WEAK VORT MAX MOVING EWD ATTM ACROSS ERN NEB -- SHOULD COMBINE WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO WEAKEN CAP. THEREFORE...EXPECT SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND/OR EVOLVE FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE MO/IA BORDER...AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SERN MN/SWRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH AREA PROFILERS INDICATING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 50 KT ABOVE SSWLYS AT LOW LEVELS...WEAK DIRECTIONAL AND MODERATE SPEED SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELL STORMS AND/OR SMALL-SCALE LINES. THEREFORE...AS ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INCREASES...WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44319294 44569128 43778987 42489010 40989213 41099417 41409500 43089450 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 17:38:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 12:38:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509131857.j8DIvTfe018232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131855 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-132100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131855Z - 132100Z SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THIS AREA...AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS ACROSS IA. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...AND AS UVV INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF VORT MAX NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS NWRN IA/SWRN MN...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL WI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...RECENT BLR /BLUE RIVER WI/ PROFILER SHOWS MODERATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 50 KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS. RESULTING WIND PROFILE /40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR/ IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL-SCALE LINES...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 45418989 45228815 44018853 42949009 43599249 44939106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 18:01:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 13:01:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509131918.j8DJImvK002967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131917 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-132145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / WRN MO / NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131917Z - 132145Z ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 21Z. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER FAR ERN KS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD AND IS MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE AS OF 19Z. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES EWD INTO WRN MO. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE POTENT STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER W...IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE STRONGER NEAR THE FRONT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND EVEN TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH NLY SURFACE FLOW PROVIDING LONGER 0-1 KM SHEAR VECTORS. THE PROBLEM FOR TORNADOES WILL BE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES W OF THE FRONT...UNDERNEATH A CAPPING INVERSION AS WELL AS RESIDENCE TIME NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WINDOW FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY APPEARS BRIEF. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..JEWELL.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 36509529 36239682 36569784 37739784 38569788 39259674 39389583 38639307 37069341 36759382 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 18:33:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 13:33:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509131951.j8DJp4kZ027018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131950 OKZ000-TXZ000-132145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX / FAR SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131950Z - 132145Z STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE HAIL OR WIND REPORTS ARE LIKELY. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF CDS TO LBB. STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE FRONT...WITH MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELDING IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG MUCAPE. ALTHOUGH JAYTON PROFILER SHOWS WEAK WLY FLOW NEAR 10 KTS BELOW 4KM...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ABOVE THAT HEIGHT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINLY MULTICELLULAR STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34840111 35579995 35349938 34849958 34250001 33400077 33330220 33800224 34340173 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 19:08:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 14:08:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509132025.j8DKPtIf022298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132025 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-132200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA/SERN MN/CENTRAL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 781...782... VALID 132025Z - 132200Z CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 781/INTO WW 782. LARGE AREA OF MULTICELL CONVECTION -- WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/SEVERE STORMS -- CONTINUES MOVING NEWD THROUGH VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /3000 TO 3500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ OVER NERN IA AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SWRN WI AND SERN MN. STORMS ARE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL MN...WITHIN MODERATELY-STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE. FURTHER...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS S CENTRAL WI...AND SWD INTO FAR ERN IA/NWRN IL...LIKELY ALONG DIFFUSE/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER -- BUT STILL SUFFICIENT -- SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW ACROSS FAR NRN IL/E CENTRAL AND SERN WI. ..GOSS.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44479180 45039044 44738787 42668787 41938929 41939095 42839303 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 22:38:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 17:38:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509132356.j8DNuEVZ024171@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132355 MIZ000-140130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132355Z - 140130Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NWRN LOWER MI BY 01Z. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER HAS EVOLVED IN CONJUNCTION WITH MCS OVER CNTRL WI. LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 40-45KT ACROSS LAKE MI. RECENT REPORTS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN WI...AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP DOWNSTREAM TO MAINTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY THAT SQUALL LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS HAS YET TO COMMENCE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF CONVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY. ..DARROW.. 09/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45008616 45828429 44968302 43498425 43238663 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 23:13:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 18:13:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509140031.j8E0V1a3012772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140029 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / WRN MO / NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 783...784... VALID 140029Z - 140230Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY OVER WW 784 AND WRN PORTIONS OF WW 783. WHILE ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS CELLS CONSOLIDATE AND OUTFLOWS INTERFERE DESTRUCTIVELY. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER ERN KS ALONG COLD FRONT. FARTHER E...MORE ISOLATED CELLS PERSIST WHICH WILL HAVE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF BOTH BRIEF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH SGF SOUNDING SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH SUGGESTS TORNADIC THREAT EXTREMELY LOW THAT FAR EAST. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75" AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET WITH TIME...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SERN KS AND SWRN MO WITH TRAINING CELLS...WITH PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT NEARLY PARALLEL TO CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36259848 37029842 37029750 37599668 38649607 38639509 39349133 37169140 36459505 36289518 36219848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 00:47:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 19:47:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509140205.j8E25Dd0028205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140203 OKZ000-TXZ000-140330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 786... VALID 140203Z - 140330Z ...STRONG STORMS WILL BECOME ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS OK... STEEPEST LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND BUOYANCY THAT HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED IS ORIENTED SW-NE ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE PROPAGATING INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...AND GIVEN SWLY FEED AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL OK AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34130094 36409927 36489574 34129801 33620026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 00:57:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 19:57:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509140215.j8E2FDAX000606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140213 MIZ000-140345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI...ERN U.P OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 787... VALID 140213Z - 140345Z THREAT FOR SVR WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES NEWD OUT OF WW 787 INTO NERN LOWER MI AND THE ERN U.P OF MI IN THE NEXT HOUR. GIVEN LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL THREAT ALONG WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED...A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM OF WW 787 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RECENT SFC ASOS OBS ACROSS NWRN LOWER MI INDICATE THAT WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE LINE WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. FORWARD LINE MOTION REMAINS RELATIVELY FAST...WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATING AROUND 40 KT MOVEMENT. GIVEN DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NOTED 0N RECENT IR IMAGERY...THE OVERALL SVR WIND THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES OUT OF WW 787 INTO NERN LOWER MI AND ERN U.P OF MI. GIVEN ANTICIPATED LINE MOTION CONTINUING NEAR CURRENT SPEED...THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER IN WW 787 SHOULD BE OVER BY 03Z. THUS WW 787 SHOULD BE CANCELLED AROUND THAT TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX... 46518432 46518504 45728522 45108510 44568505 44278449 44328347 44628285 45178281 45908352 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 02:27:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 21:27:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509140345.j8E3j8Zo015015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140344 MOZ000-ILZ000-140515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL IL...SERN/ERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 788... VALID 140344Z - 140515Z ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MO/WCNTRL IL... WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE IS PROGRESSING EWD AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT ACROSS CNTRL MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING BEYOND WATCH 788 BUT THE EVOLUTION OF A MVC OVER NERN OSAGE COUNTY MO COULD AID EWD PROGRESSION/INTENSITY A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS MCS. ..DARROW.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 37009289 37889157 38899099 38808974 37339001 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 05:18:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 00:18:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509140636.j8E6aNwD025911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140635 OKZ000-TXZ000-140730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL OK AND EXTREME NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 786... VALID 140635Z - 140730Z WW 786 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN OK... WITH THESE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING FROM 40 N ADM TO 20 N SPS TO 15 SSE CDS. A 35 KT SSWLY LLJ IS CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SWRN OK RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE ZONE OF WAA ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 786 FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE FURTHER SEVERE THREAT... WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL. ..PETERS.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34050062 35599953 35759803 36229707 36189693 34029854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 05:59:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 00:59:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509140717.j8E7H36J006015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140715 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-140815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN OK INTO NWRN AR TO SOUTH CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 788... VALID 140715Z - 140815Z ALTHOUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM SW-NE OK AND INTO SRN MO/NRN AR...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 788. REGIONAL RADARS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED S OF WW 788...WITH THESE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MO/NRN AR BORDER REGION TO FYV...AND THEN SWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SWRN OK. SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A ZONE OF WAA ACROSS THIS AREA...AND MAINLY N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR...BUT TIME OF DAY AND MODEST LLJ WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... 35809711 37239318 37559154 36849156 35259709 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 10:40:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 05:40:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509141158.j8EBwIGf029909@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141157 NCZ000-141300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141157Z - 141300Z TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING FOR ERN NC. REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED HURRICANE OPHELIA CONTINUING TO TRACK NWD TOWARD THE SERN NC COAST AS INDICATED BY LATEST TPC GUIDANCE/FORECAST. NRN MOST RAIN BAND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM SAMPSON TO BEAUFORT COUNTIES NC AND THEN ESEWD OVER THE OUTER BANKS NEAR HSE. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE HAD WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION. AREA VADS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF OPHELIA. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS MOVE ONSHORE AND INTERACT WITH A FRICTIONALLY INDUCED INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS NNEWD FROM THE CENTER OF OPHELIA TO NEAR ILM TO 30 W ECG. ..PETERS.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... 34287781 35007769 36137715 36487686 36337526 35057532 34117694 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 11:35:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 06:35:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509141252.j8ECqi5R020004@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141251 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-141345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 789... VALID 141251Z - 141345Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 789. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS KS/OK ATTM AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS OK AND SRN KS. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. ..PETERS.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 34919995 36229990 37129916 37419835 37499689 37369550 37059468 36009462 34779458 34469777 34249906 34509965 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 16:34:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 11:34:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509141751.j8EHppgw011987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141751 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141750 NCZ000-VAZ000-141945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC / EXTREME SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141750Z - 141945Z THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING FARTHER N INTO NERN NC AND SERN VA...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. AS OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A NEWD DIRECTION...SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK OVER NERN NC AND SERN VA AND WILL HELP ADVECT WARMER...MORE UNSTABLE AIR SWD...WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ROTATION WITHIN STORMS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 35567544 35277553 34727660 34757716 34967772 35477828 36067832 37037797 37047607 36387579 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 17:21:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 12:21:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509141839.j8EIdaeQ017784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141838 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141838 OKZ000-TXZ000-142015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141838Z - 142015Z THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 20Z. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM S OF CVS TO S OF LTS TO S OF TUL. A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO NOTED S OF THIS FRONT FROM S OF SPS TO S OF ADH. MEANWHILE...A WEAK DRYLINE OR PRESSURE TROUGH WAS SITUATED FROM THE INTERSECTION OF SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SRN TX PNHDL GENERALLY SWD TO JUST W OF 6R6. RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES S OF THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 90 F OVER W-CNTRL AND PORTIONS OF NWRN TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH 50-60 KT WSWLY WINDS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ON THE TUCUMCARI NM PROFILER. INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN NM INTO WRN TX MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACTING ON WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF DRYLINE/TROUGH OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/W-CNTRL TX NEWD ALONG FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN TX AND SWRN/S-CNTRL OK. CURRENT JAYTON TX PROFILER INDICATES THAT WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SWLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXPECT THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK WITH HODOGRAPHS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33160080 33970090 34340046 34819883 35279714 35029634 34509619 33919643 33549673 33289830 33029950 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 18:11:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 13:11:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509141928.j8EJSjxA028694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141927 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK INTO SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141927Z - 142100Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM S OF MLC TO NEAR DEQ TO LLQ IN SERN AR. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS HOT AND MOIST THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 18Z SHV SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE LIMITING MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG. CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CURRENT DEQUEEN AR PROFILER SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KM AGL...THOUGH UPSTREAM PURCELL OK PROFILER INDICATES A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34149582 34509613 34959558 34759445 34349284 34089167 33819110 33239129 33009202 33349344 33799481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 20:16:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 15:16:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509142134.j8ELY64p003892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142133 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142132 TXZ000-142300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142132Z - 142300Z THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE. STORMS CONTINUE TO INITIATE NEAR THE FST AREA...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER 60S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. MODIFIED 17Z MAF SOUNDING YIELDS AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD OUT OF NM...SOME COOLING ALOFT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES. WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30570398 31050325 32140252 32230212 32200087 31880054 31050098 30380139 29890172 29850188 29760267 29890338 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 20:24:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 15:24:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509142142.j8ELg7dX010071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142140 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-142345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...WRN KS...EXTREME NERN NM AND OK PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142140Z - 142345Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/PROFILER DATA INDICATE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL CO SWWD INTO NWRN NM. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS EVIDENCED BY INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SERN CO. AS A RESULT...HIGH BASED TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. SELY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE FALLS...ADVECTING MID-UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F DEW POINTS WWD BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 14C/. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...VIGOROUS UVV WILL COMPENSATE AND RESULT IN STRONG CONVECTION. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36570460 37340464 38340517 39000498 39500404 39620291 39590174 39540044 39159994 38529989 37860007 37360042 37050080 36790157 36530256 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 20:46:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 15:46:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509142203.j8EM3wbb024456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142202 OKZ000-TXZ000-150000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN TX PNHDL...CNTRL/NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142202Z - 150000Z A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX PNHDL EWD INTO CNTRL/NRN OK BY EARLY EVENING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE TX PNHDL INTO CNTRL/NRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH SPREADS EWD. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS /PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES/ SITUATED ALONG/S OF A BOUNDARY FROM NERN OK INTO THE CNTRL TX PNHDL. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE S OF THIS FRONT. MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS NOW OVER THE TX S PLAINS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THE TORNADO WATCH ACROSS SWRN OK/NWRN TX. KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LEFT-MOVING MEMBERS TO MOVE RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL/CNTRL OK THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD FROM THE KAMA AREA EWD ALONG/N OF A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ENID AND TULSA AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA... 35009821 34779959 34390148 35630163 36640075 36889874 36909643 36569564 35909575 35299647 35129762 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 22:12:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 17:12:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509142330.j8ENUM9B005686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142328 OKZ000-TXZ000-150100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN/SCNTRL OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 790... VALID 142328Z - 150100Z WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO COULD STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS NWRN TX AND SRN OK...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS ERUPTED QUICKLY ACROSS NWRN TX LATE THIS AFTN AND HAS MADE FOR A MESSY MESOSCALE SITUATION AS CELLS COMPETE/INTERACT. PRIMARY SUPERCELL OVER SRN FOARD COUNTY IS BEING SEEDED FROM THE SW BY OTHER UPDRAFTS OVER KING/NRN KNOX COUNTIES. IF THIS STORM CAN MANAGE TO MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE INFLOW...DOWNSTREAM BACKED LL FLOW AND LOW LCLS MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS WRN N TX NEAR/S OF KSPS. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LEFT-SPLITS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING INTO SWRN/SCNTRL OK THROUGH THE EVENING. MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 75-90 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. PRIND THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AND DEVELOP A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL FOR A POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND EVENT FROM NWRN/NCNTRL TX-SWRN OK NEWD INTO SCNTRL AND PERHAPS CNTRL OK. ..RACY.. 09/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 34180154 35169691 33439701 32490152 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 02:13:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 21:13:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509150213.j8F2D8Bi022781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150211 OKZ000-TXZ000-150315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN/SCNTRL OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 790... VALID 150211Z - 150315Z TORNADO WATCH 790 EXPIRES AT 03Z. 00Z H5 ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO SWWD INTO NCNTRL NM WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE TX PNHDL...OK AND KS. INITIAL SUPERCELL CLUSTER WEAKENED EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVED INTO SWRN OK. STRONGER TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED NWD INTO CNTRL/NRN OK WHERE H5 TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER. PRIND THAT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS AND MOVE ENEWD INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LLJ IMPINGES ON THE VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ISOLD HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...BUT GIVEN THAT STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER N/NE...IT APPEARS THE HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS CNTRL/NRN OK. ..RACY.. 09/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33130140 34150146 34779696 34149704 33899799 33459905 32979940 32829996 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 07:36:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 02:36:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509150736.j8F7aien001874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150735 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-150800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK AND PARTS OF FAR NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 791... VALID 150735Z - 150800Z NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON FOR CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND FAR NRN TX. RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY N OF CDS AND EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SWRN OK/NW TX IS INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT FROM THIS AREA EWD ACROSS OK/FAR NRN TX...AS THIS ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ATOP MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORING A THREAT FOR HAIL/ HIGH WINDS. ..PETERS.. 09/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...AMA... 35090001 35689879 36749773 36899627 36909455 34939457 33919469 33379556 33369756 33369897 33249978 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 11:49:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 06:49:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509151149.j8FBmxqK016771@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151148 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-151215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN N TX/SRN OK INTO PARTS OF WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 792... VALID 151148Z - 151215Z GREATEST SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SRN OK THROUGH THE MORNING. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED AS THIS THREAT TRANSLATES EWD INTO SERN OK AND PARTS OF WRN AR. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN OK...WITH THIS REGION LOCATED TO THE N OF AN E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED GENERALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A 40 KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SRN/CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THIS MORNING...SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFTING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EWD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS OK/AR COMBINED WITH THETA-E/WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN OK THIS MORNING WITH STORMS TRAINING EWD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW. ..PETERS.. 09/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 35289855 35339687 35559508 35509379 34479358 33829428 33789656 33879847 33899979 34339980 35029923 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 16:10:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 11:10:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509151610.j8FGAHGt021426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151609 NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-151745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151609Z - 151745Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 1555Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INTENSIFYING FROM W OF ALB TO NEAR BHM...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MODIFICATION OF 12Z ALB SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS LARGELY UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. INSPECTION OF 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...IS LIKELY AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. PERSISTENT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FROM FAR SERN NY/LONG ISLAND NEWD ACROSS CT/RI AND ERN MA SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING STORMS AND THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SERN NY INTO WRN MA AND SRN VT. ..MEAD.. 09/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 42257518 43257344 43677160 43417115 42567131 41877244 41647383 41677476 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 18:44:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 13:44:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509151844.j8FIiSTl006216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151843 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR WWD ACROSS N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151843Z - 152015Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1830Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FAR SWRN AR/NERN TX WWD TO N OF MWL. AIR MASS S OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MODERATE UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70 F. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MO IS LIKELY AIDING IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL VWPS AND RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE BUOYANCY PROFILE WITH 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AR. HERE...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH MORE NORMAL ORIENTATION OF SMALL MCS OVER SWRN AR/SERN OK/NERN TX TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS MAY SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE SCALE GROWTH AND RESULTANT COLD POOL ORGANIZATION. FARTHER TO THE W ACROSS N TX...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED. ..MEAD.. 09/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...SJT... 34279378 34479283 34289138 33749119 33169146 32809469 32349832 32639926 32879908 33649562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 22:30:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 17:30:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509152230.j8FMUnU2003665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152229 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2212 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN TX AND SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 793... VALID 152229Z - 152330Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #793 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. ANOTHER WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED. TSTMS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE EWD ACROSS SRN AR AND EXTREME NERN TX...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT. UPDRAFTS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM LAYER NOTED BETWEEN H7-H5 AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING TOWARD THE MID-MS VLY. STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE REGION WHERE SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES EXIST. CURRENT TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. THUS...THE WW WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z WITH NO PLAN TO REISSUE. ..RACY.. 09/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33119522 33939419 33839252 33829221 34329156 34249091 33079232 32999405 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 19 06:36:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 01:36:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509190635.j8J6ZfId030712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190634 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-190800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SWRN WI...MUCH OF IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 799... VALID 190634Z - 190800Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING... STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN EWD EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS ASCENT ATOP CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER RELEASES 2000-3000 J/KG ELEVATED INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY GENERATE LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE APPEAR INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT AN EWD EXPANSION OF ONGOING WATCH. ..DARROW.. 09/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 38958967 41489216 43159252 43039033 39538803 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 19 22:55:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 17:55:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509192255.j8JMtVgY023111@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192254 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL/SRN IND AND OHIO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 801... VALID 192254Z - 200030Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 801. NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. INTENSE CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT BAND WHICH IS NOW SPREADING THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO SLOWLY DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS. AND...40+ KT WESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS WESTWARD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF DECATUR AND SPRINGFIELD IL BY 00-01Z. THEREAFTER...AS BOUNDARY COOLS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH...PARTICULARLY EAST/SOUTH OF WW 801...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY COOLER/MORE STABLE. ..KERR.. 09/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 38478768 39168854 39579029 40219037 40418768 40898447 40658316 39578310 38478581 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 01:19:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 20:19:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509200119.j8K1JQcT005861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200118 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0818 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 802... VALID 200118Z - 200315Z NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW ORIENTED EAST-WEST ROUGHLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE 05-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 2 INCHES ALONG BOUNDARY...AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO 3000 J/KG...WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM COLUMBIA TO ST. LOUIS...AND ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN ILLINOIS...LIKELY WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...BUT SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO SLOWLY DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS. ..KERR.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 39049207 39189018 39188870 39158801 38838727 38278785 38078849 38168939 37959180 38219320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 16:40:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 11:40:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509201640.j8KGebdX011987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201639 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-201815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MD THROUGH CNTRL VA INTO N-CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201639Z - 201815Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 45-50 KT MID-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA TRANSLATING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WITH DOWNWIND REGION OF IMPLIED ASCENT BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION. RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE SKIES E OF THE APPALACHIANS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F...AIR MASS HAS BECOME NEARLY UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z RNK AND IAD SOUNDINGS/. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS ALONG WEAK LEE TROUGH. DEVELOPING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OBSERVED ON MORNING RAOBS AND CURRENT VWPS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... 36668010 38007875 38817796 39167744 39127683 38497660 36167878 35997987 36418022 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 18:44:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 13:44:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509201844.j8KIi9Kr006159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201842 FLZ000-202045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FLA/FLA KEYS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 803... VALID 201842Z - 202045Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS...AS NE QUADRANT CONVECTIVE BANDS OF HURRICANE RITA ROTATE THROUGH SOUTH FLA. THUS A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE NEEDED BY 21Z /WW 803 EXPIRATION TIME/ FOR ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AS WW 803. CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE NE QUADRANT OF HURRICANE RITA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE WWD INTO SOUTH FLA OVER THE NEXT 6+ HRS. RECENT MODIFIED VWP DATA FROM MIA INDICATES 150-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH GIVEN OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS FROM 120 DEG AROUND 40 KTS. ADDITIONALLY...THE 18Z EYW SOUNDING INDICATED AROUND 50 KTS OF 0-1 KM VECTOR SHEAR. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATIONAL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. 18Z EYW SOUNDING INDICATES A NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THAT OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER FARTHER NORTH...FROM THE UPPER KEYS NWD TO THE NRN MIAMI METRO SUBURBS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSOLATION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/PARCEL ACCELERATION AND HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..CROSBIE.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 26838144 24488249 24478058 26807951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 19:57:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 14:57:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509201957.j8KJvRrA028875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201956 ARZ000-202130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201956Z - 202130Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO S OF ARG TO S OF FYV AND THEN WWD ACROSS NRN OK. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S INVOF THIS FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. LOCAL VWPS/PROFILERS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIGHT WLY WINDS ABOVE GROUND VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE WITH ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. CONTINUED HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA... 35629431 36069422 36309317 36329182 36299117 36099063 35809042 35349053 35009119 35089212 35129340 35279408 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 20:17:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 15:17:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509202017.j8KKHG26010719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202014 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-202215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...AND SRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202014Z - 202215Z SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DE...ERN/SRN MD AND SRN NJ. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. GIVEN LIMITED SPATIAL AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED IN SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OF MD NEWD INTO SRN NJ. AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WAS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /AROUND 35 KTS / AND MODERATE WIND FIELDS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL DMGG WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE. ..CROSBIE.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... 39297458 39467501 39297564 38497664 38297503  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 22:53:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 17:53:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509202253.j8KMrc3c013781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202252 NCZ000-VAZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...CNTRL/ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 804... VALID 202252Z - 210015Z CONTINUE WW. WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH VIRGINIA...AND REMAINS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A NARROW BROKEN BAND FROM THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO THE DANVILLE AREA. CLUSTER OF STORMS WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF DANVILLE APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EVOLUTION OF A SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEAKENS INHIBITION NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE RALEIGH-DURHAM AREA. THIS IS ON NOSE OF PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK...ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT BEYOND NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BUT...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. ..KERR.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP... 35917999 36537932 36717842 36577758 36187717 35557778 35207839 34907942 35087983 35418031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 23:38:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 18:38:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509202338.j8KNcB4U000762@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202336 CAZ000-210030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SAN JOAQUIN...SRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 202336Z - 210030Z STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO ADJACENT COASTAL RANGES...HAVE SUPPORTED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN CYCLONIC ARC ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER JET. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS DEEPER INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THEREAFTER...WITH ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ..KERR.. 09/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR... 38552225 38872125 38402050 37681962 37061937 35811934 35881988 36152004 36982033 37662110 37932168 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 00:33:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 19:33:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509210033.j8L0XkKZ026798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210032 NCZ000-VAZ000-210130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SE VA...N CNTRL/ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 804... VALID 210032Z - 210130Z EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WITH UPPER FORCING EAST OF THE RALEIGH-DURHAM AREA...AND SOUTH OF NORFOLK VA...INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. GIVEN COOLING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE TO ALLOW REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 804 TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 01Z. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 03-04Z... BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 09/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 36297885 36727817 36867715 36867671 36477633 35907633 35187721 34807878 35207894 35707912 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 00:48:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 19:48:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509210048.j8L0mc0n001377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210047 FLZ000-210245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FLA AND THE FLA KEYS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 805... VALID 210047Z - 210245Z GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS WWD ACROSS FAR SRN FLA AND THE FLA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 805 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z...GIVEN CONTINUED WWD MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE RITA AWAY FROM THE REGION ALONG WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE GREATER MIAMI METRO AREA AS PRIMARY STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND WILL REMAIN SW OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CELL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AND THUS WW WILL NOT BE CLEARED ATTM FOR THIS AREA. BOTH MIA AND EYW 00Z SOUNDINGS AND VWP/S STILL INDICATE MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR / 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2/. GIVEN A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE. AS LOW LEVELS COOL/STABILIZE...TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE RITA AWAY FROM THE AREA...A NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED AFTER 05Z. ..CROSBIE.. 09/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 26297996 26338173 24458234 24448062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 20:25:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 15:25:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509212025.j8LKPY4j002234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212024 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-212200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL WI...SRN MN...EXTREME ERN SD...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212024Z - 212200Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED ON SFC MAP FROM NEAR AUW-HCD TO SFC LOW OVER S-CENTRAL SD. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SFC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS GREATEST MOISTURE IN AN EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY AIDED PLUME FROM MSP AREA SWD TOWARD FSD THEN SEWD TO NEAR SUX...WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S F. FARTHER E...MOISTURE FIELD IS MORE FRAGMENTED WITH DEW POINTS AS LOW AS 40S/50S IN ERN IA/SRN WI AND MID 60S JUST N OF SFC WARM FRONT. CINH APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER N-CENTRAL WI FRONTAL SEGMENT WHERE TEMPS ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT AS WARM AS FARTHER SE...AND VIS IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTIVE TOWERS BETWEEN LANGLADE AND EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW ACROSS MN SHOULD BE DELAYED FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS BY STRONGER CAPPING...HOWEVER INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. CAP STRENGTH INCREASES EVEN MORE WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM WRN PORTION OF MN/IA BORDER...BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...MORNING 700 MB ANALYSES AND RUC CINH PROGS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL INTO SD AND NWRN IA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS WHOLE CORRIDOR. PROFILERS...VWP AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS ALL SHOW ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH UP TO 200 J/KG ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT. ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS MORE DEPENDENT ON STORM SCALE AND LOCALIZED BOUNDARY PROCESSES. ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44659700 45109655 45439487 45718988 45638911 45248854 44928842 44778861 44598899 44478997 44269289 43739513 43389616 43209660 43289705 44109708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 21:05:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 16:05:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509212105.j8LL5RFR028842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212104 WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-212300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN UT...WRN CO AND SWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212104Z - 212300Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN UT. OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE NEED FOR A WW. LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES CIRRUS WAS CLEARING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ERN UT. CONSEQUENTLY...CONTINUED SFC HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR / AROUND 50 KTS ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE. FURTHER NW...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OVER NRN UT AND FAR SWRN WY BEFORE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 09/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH... 42181065 41591326 41121366 39971346 39491105 38491151 37941140 37721062 38100885 39310790 40160741 41100741 42350850 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 00:27:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 19:27:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509220027.j8M0Ra5l007225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220026 WIZ000-MNZ000-220200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 806...807... VALID 220026Z - 220200Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A STORM COMPLEX EXPANDS AND MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN WI. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BY LATER THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN WI. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG NEAR THE FRONT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE BECOMING MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A 78 MPH WIND REPORTED RECENTLY NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BECOME WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL BY THE MID TO LATE-EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 09/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD... 44259121 43659417 43809527 44479570 45159471 45799172 46068940 45758865 45168841 44668869 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 02:14:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 21:14:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509220214.j8M2E8hW028513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220213 WIZ000-MNZ000-220345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 806...807... VALID 220213Z - 220345Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE REGION...THOUGH OVERALL INTENSITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. ATTM...WW/S EXPECTED TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. EARLIER INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT EWD INTO LESSER INSTABILITY/DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER WI. RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SWRN MN...WHERE AREA REMAINS QUITE CAPPED. HOWEVER WITH WSWLY LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS IA/SERN MN...ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BACKBUILD WITH ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO CENTRAL MN. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING SEWD INTO SWRN MN/SERN SD OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...EXPECT WW/S WILL EXPIRE. ..EVANS.. 09/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD... 43559422 44489536 45099550 45499259 45678952 44828912 43889197 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 18:09:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 13:09:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509221809.j8MI9KNL016459@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221808 MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-222015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LOWER MI...SRN LM...SRN WI...EXTREME NRN IL...SWRN LH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221808Z - 222015Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING EWD 25-35 KT ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL -- WHICH HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL SO FAR...APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH MORE DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND HAIL EVENTS BECOMING PROBABLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW ACROSS ERN LM...COLD FRONT WWD TO BETWEEN MSN-MKE AND SWWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN IA. COMBINED WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED SEWD ACROSS EXTREME SWRN LOWER MI TO VICINITY IND. TSTMS OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN LOWER MI ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED BUT STILL CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WITH 50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES FROM 300-800 J/KG ACROSS SRN LOWER MI. AIRMASS BECOMES CLOSER TO SFC-BASED AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS LM TOWARD WI/IL BORDER...THOUGH ROUGHLY 50-100 J/KG CINH STILL NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME EVEN IN THAT AREA BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE OVER LATTER AREA WITH MLCAPES POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG ONCE TEMPS REACH MID 80S F. SWLY WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER RESULT IN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOWS AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT. STILL...HEATING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH NEXT 2-3 HOURS FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS -- PARTICULARLY FROM SWRN LOWER MI WWD. ..EDWARDS.. 09/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... 42158313 41918583 41988839 42338934 42968920 43448804 44128239 43868231 43498227 43008239 42938247 42828247 42718250 42638250 42548265 42438275 42378288 42338301 42288306 42178313 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 20:49:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 15:49:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509222049.j8MKnLCL010630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222048 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LOWER MI...SRN LM...NERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808... VALID 222048Z - 222145Z SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS NRN PORTION WW -- MAINLY IN FORM OF LARGE HAIL OVER SERN MI AND MIX OF WIND AND HAIL FROM SWRN LOWER MI ACROSS LM. POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT SWD WITH TIME ACROSS LOWER MI AS CONVECTION TO THE W PREFERENTIALLY MOVES INTO MORE UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIR MASS THAT HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND RAOB CHARTS INDICATE WEAKEST SBCINH OVER AREAS ADJOINING LM ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IL...WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED. THEREFORE...CONVECTION MAY BACKBUILD FROM LM ACROSS NRN IL. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS OVER IL WILL REMAIN STRONGER CAP...ALONG WITH VEERED WARM SECTOR FLOW AND RESULTANT WEAKNESS OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OUTFLOW AIDED COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SRN LM WWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS CHI METRO AREA TO JUST S RFD. EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SWD 10-15 KT THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA...WHILE REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY OVER SWRN LOWER MI. ..EDWARDS.. 09/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... 41458904 42608901 43058275 41918272 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 23:14:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 18:14:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509222314.j8MNEZRc031826@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222313 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-230045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...SRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808... VALID 222313Z - 230045Z A WAVY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS...EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MI WWD TO ALONG THE OH/IND/MI BORDER THEN WWD INTO GARY INDIANA AND NRN IL. A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A 1008 MB LOW NW OF DETROIT SWWD ACROSS CHICAGO THEN INTO ECNTRL IA. A SMALL WARM SECTOR REMAINS AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN IND/NWRN OH INTO EXTREME SERN LWR MI. MAIN BATCH OF TSTMS HAS CONGEALED INTO A LINEAR MCS AND WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE EWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO. RECENTLY...NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW AND SWLY LLJ AXIS VCNTY ANGOLA IND. THESE STORMS MAY CLIP AREAS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE WW ACROSS EXTREME NWRN OH AND MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. MEANWHILE...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN LWR MI WWD TO THE CHICAGO AREA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ATOP THE COLD DOME IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER REMAINS FAVORABLY SHEARED FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/CINH INCREASES. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AUGMENTING STORMS CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY EWD INTO SWRN ONT WITH A DECREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. ..RACY.. 09/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... 41558882 42498888 42998284 41958288 41578314 41348562 41288887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 23 01:45:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 20:45:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509230145.j8N1jQBk015087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230144 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0844 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL AND SRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808... VALID 230144Z - 230215Z VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808 EXPIRES AT 02Z AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED. THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE SWD THROUGH NRN PARTS OF IL-IN-OH. A FEW TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS SRN LWR MI AND ARE LIKELY ROOTED ATOP THE DEEPENING FRONTAL SLOPE. STRONGEST TSTMS EXIST ACROSS NERN IN AND NWRN OH...CLOSER TO THE WARM SECTOR/LLJ. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT...THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL TO PRECLUDE A NEW WW. ..RACY.. 09/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 41558874 41888871 42858257 41438286 40988311 40938633 41128859 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 24 22:58:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2005 17:58:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509242257.j8OMvl2c007078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242257 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB/ERN CO/WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242257Z - 250030Z ...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR TSTMS IS INCREASING INVOF OF LEE TROUGH... TSTMS NOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG LEE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR MCK SWWD TO GLD/LAA. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT /PER MCCOOK NEB PROFILER/ WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IS GREATER FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB...AND THIS MAY BE AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY. WILL MONITOR THE AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. ..TAYLOR.. 09/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37000195 36970343 37470377 40620152 41409961 41099912 39070009 37040132 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 24 23:08:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2005 18:08:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509242308.j8ON8Ulh010711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242307 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...MUCH OF MS EXTREME WRN TN AND CNTRL/SRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 815...816... VALID 242307Z - 250030Z TS RITA WAS CENTERED VCNTY KSHV LATE THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS LOCATED ACROSS SERN OK/SWRN AR. AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVELS HAS RESULTED IN A BACKED FLOW REGIME ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MS...NERN LA AND SRN AR WITH VERY STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR. SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING ABOUT RITA WITH TWO PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONES DRIVING TSTM BANDS: ONE FROM CNTRL AR ACROSS CNTRL MS AND ANOTHER FROM NERN LA INTO SWRN MS. AS THE STORMS TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SEVERAL TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. AS RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD...THE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL EDGE NWD. BUT...OUTER SPIRAL BANDS/TSTMS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...WITH CONVECTION CONTRACTING TOWARD THE CENTER. THIS PROCESS MAY BE SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED...SO A LINGERING TORNADO THREAT MAY LAST INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS AT LEAST NWRN MS...AND PARTS OF ERN AR. THIS MAY NECESSITATE ADDITIONAL WATCHES AFTER 02Z. ELSEWHERE...THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TORNADO THREAT ACROSS SRN LA AND SRN MS. CONVECTION MAY INCREASE OVER THE WATER AND MOVE TOWARD THE SHORELINE LATER IN THE EVENING. BUT...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES/MOVES OVER THE LAND. ..RACY.. 09/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... 29899104 31439171 32169261 34289348 35839337 35718976 34348926 29868787 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 00:44:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2005 19:44:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509250044.j8P0iLY5011118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250043 NEZ000-250215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB/SERN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 814... VALID 250043Z - 250215Z ...THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... TSTMS HAVE MAINLY DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH AND TORNADO THREAT HAS REMAINED LIMITED. SUPERCELL NOW AFFECTING ANTELOPE/BOONE COUNTIES MAY POSE A TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH OLD OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. PROFILER DATA FROM NELIGH NEB SUGGESTS VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS OR AN ISOLD TORNADO WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT AND CURVED HODOGRAPH RESULTING FROM BACKED WIND FIELD. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE OTHER SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. SEVERAL LEFT-SPLITTING STORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED INCLUDING CELL NOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 814 NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. ..TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 40739819 40030123 40540154 41870055 42489872 42659679 41569621 41109648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 03:42:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2005 22:42:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509250342.j8P3gUv5012678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250341 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2273 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA/FAR SE SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 814... VALID 250341Z - 250445Z REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 814 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 04Z...WITH A WATCH REPLACEMENT NOT EXPECTED. TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 814...WITH PRIMARY HAZARD NOW ISOLD LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BULK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NEB ARE OCCURRING WELL WITHIN ELEVATED POST-COLD FRONTAL REGIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR SFC-FRONTAL ACTIVITY ONGOING ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 IN SCNTRL NEB. KUEX VAD IN CONJUCTION WITH REGIONAL PROFILER NETWORK SUGGESTS 30-40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH SWD SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERNIGHT. AMPLE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPE -- AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG OVERNIGHT -- WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..GUYER.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41629606 40879779 40749958 41880014 43069857 43629559 43219518 42239570 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 07:17:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 02:17:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509250717.j8P7HHRB022176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250715 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-250845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2275 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...NRN NEB...SRN MN CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 250715Z - 250845Z RISK FOR LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TOTALS WITH PERSISTENT/SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING CELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS... SUPPRESSING NOSE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE. STABILIZATION OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING LARGE HAIL THREAT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY...AND FOCUS FOR PERSISTENT/TRAINING CONVECTION...THROUGH 12Z. FARTHER UPSTREAM...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT TRAILING EDGE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO FINALLY SHIFT INTO OR EAST OF MITCHELL BY DAYBREAK. ..KERR.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43220093 44249929 44629843 44849660 44719533 44689329 43809171 43459210 43439410 43269599 43099711 43279816 43149838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 08:08:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 03:08:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509250808.j8P88JV3005831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250807 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-250900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AR...MS...ERN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 817... VALID 250807Z - 250900Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 09Z. LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...NOW SOUTH OF HOT SPRINGS AR...IS BEGINNING TO TAKE MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO EVOLVE IN CONFLUENT ZONE ON ITS EASTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...SUPPORTED BY INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW TONGUE OF MID 70S DEW POINTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THOUGH MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS SLOWLY RISING...WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL INTO...AND LIKELY THROUGH...THE DAYTIME HOURS. THROUGH DAYBREAK...RISK FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO NARROW MOIST AXIS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SOUTH OF GREENVILLE. HOWEVER...AFTER DAYBREAK ...HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY SHIFT INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD...AND SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES BENEATH DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. ..KERR.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... 36339312 36349009 31288895 31289182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 14:33:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 09:33:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509251433.j8PEXR7t014686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251432 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251432 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-251600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...ERN AR...WRN/MID TN...NWRN AL...MO BOOT-HEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 818... VALID 251432Z - 251600Z WW WILL BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 18Z EXPIRATION. BECAUSE OF ARCHING GEOMETRY OF THREAT...TWO WWS MAY BE NEEDED -- ALIGNED NEARLY SW-NE OVER PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL MS AND SE-NW FARTHER N. PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN TN AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS NERN AL AND MID TN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK WARM FRONT AND CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM NEAR MEM SEWD ACROSS NERN MS AND NWRN/CENTRAL AL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL REMAIN SO FOR LONGER TO ITS N WHERE PRESSURE FALLS WILL KEEP SFC FLOW RELATIVELY BACKED. STRONGEST BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN S OF WARM FRONT AND AWAY FROM THICKEST CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE WITH 0-1 KM SRH RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG S-CENTRAL MS TO 800 J/KG WRN TN. COLDEST IR CLOUD TOPS AND MOST FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING REMAIN OVER SWRN/CENTRAL MS WHERE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE INDICATED...HOWEVER AIR MASS FARTHER NE SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH TIME THROUGH DIABATIC HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION. SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME ACROSS PORTIONS SRN MS AS CENTRAL CORE OF RITA REMNANTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS AR. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING -- WITH PRESSURE FALLS RETREATING AWAY FROM AREA -- SHOULD RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE VEERED SFC FLOW AND CORRESPONDING REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER STORMS MAY ROTATE IN MEANTIME WITH LINGERING TORNADO POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EVIDENT FROM NEAR HEZ NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL MS. BEHIND THAT BAND...EVEN MORE VEERED FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR S OF CIRCULATION CENTER...AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW NEAR CENTER -- INDICATE WRN PORTION WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK... 33238756 31988842 31378928 31219078 31389138 31649166 31979157 32399106 33329016 34389011 35219055 35899138 36219180 36419172 36569014 36438835 35988765 35248734 34418729 33468753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 14:39:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 09:39:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509251439.j8PEd1AL017281@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251438 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251438 COR ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-251600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0938 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...ERN AR...WRN/MID TN...NWRN AL...MO BOOT-HEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 818... VALID 251438Z - 251600Z CORRECTED FOR DIRECTIONAL TYPO WW WILL BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 18Z EXPIRATION. BECAUSE OF ARCHING GEOMETRY OF THREAT...TWO WWS MAY BE NEEDED -- ALIGNED NEARLY SW-NE OVER PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL MS AND SE-NW FARTHER N. PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN TN AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS NWRN AL AND MID TN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK WARM FRONT AND CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM NEAR MEM SEWD ACROSS NERN MS AND NWRN/CENTRAL AL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL REMAIN SO FOR LONGER TO ITS N WHERE PRESSURE FALLS WILL KEEP SFC FLOW RELATIVELY BACKED. STRONGEST BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN S OF WARM FRONT AND AWAY FROM THICKEST CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE WITH 0-1 KM SRH RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG S-CENTRAL MS TO 800 J/KG WRN TN. COLDEST IR CLOUD TOPS AND MOST FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING REMAIN OVER SWRN/CENTRAL MS WHERE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE INDICATED...HOWEVER AIR MASS FARTHER NE SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH TIME THROUGH DIABATIC HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION. SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME ACROSS PORTIONS SRN MS AS CENTRAL CORE OF RITA REMNANTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS AR. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING -- WITH PRESSURE FALLS RETREATING AWAY FROM AREA -- SHOULD RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE VEERED SFC FLOW AND CORRESPONDING REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER STORMS MAY ROTATE IN MEANTIME WITH LINGERING TORNADO POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EVIDENT FROM NEAR HEZ NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL MS. BEHIND THAT BAND...EVEN MORE VEERED FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR S OF CIRCULATION CENTER...AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW NEAR CENTER -- INDICATE WRN PORTION WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK... 33238756 31988842 31378928 31219078 31389138 31649166 31979157 32399106 33329016 34389011 35219055 35899138 36219180 36419172 36569014 36438835 35988765 35248734 34418729 33468753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 15:26:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 10:26:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509251526.j8PFQFKU004592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251432 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251432 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-251600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...ERN AR...WRN/MID TN...NWRN AL...MO BOOT-HEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 818... VALID 251432Z - 251600Z WW WILL BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 18Z EXPIRATION. BECAUSE OF ARCHING GEOMETRY OF THREAT...TWO WWS MAY BE NEEDED -- ALIGNED NEARLY SW-NE OVER PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL MS AND SE-NW FARTHER N. PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN TN AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS NERN AL AND MID TN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK WARM FRONT AND CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM NEAR MEM SEWD ACROSS NERN MS AND NWRN/CENTRAL AL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL REMAIN SO FOR LONGER TO ITS N WHERE PRESSURE FALLS WILL KEEP SFC FLOW RELATIVELY BACKED. STRONGEST BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN S OF WARM FRONT AND AWAY FROM THICKEST CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE WITH 0-1 KM SRH RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG S-CENTRAL MS TO 800 J/KG WRN TN. COLDEST IR CLOUD TOPS AND MOST FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING REMAIN OVER SWRN/CENTRAL MS WHERE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE INDICATED...HOWEVER AIR MASS FARTHER NE SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH TIME THROUGH DIABATIC HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION. SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME ACROSS PORTIONS SRN MS AS CENTRAL CORE OF RITA REMNANTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS AR. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING -- WITH PRESSURE FALLS RETREATING AWAY FROM AREA -- SHOULD RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE VEERED SFC FLOW AND CORRESPONDING REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER STORMS MAY ROTATE IN MEANTIME WITH LINGERING TORNADO POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EVIDENT FROM NEAR HEZ NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL MS. BEHIND THAT BAND...EVEN MORE VEERED FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR S OF CIRCULATION CENTER...AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW NEAR CENTER -- INDICATE WRN PORTION WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK... 33238756 31988842 31378928 31219078 31389138 31649166 31979157 32399106 33329016 34389011 35219055 35899138 36219180 36419172 36569014 36438835 35988765 35248734 34418729 33468753  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 15:37:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 10:37:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509251536.j8PFaxOH008612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251438 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251438 COR ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-251600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0938 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...ERN AR...WRN/MID TN...NWRN AL...MO BOOT-HEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 818... VALID 251438Z - 251600Z CORRECTED FOR DIRECTIONAL TYPO WW WILL BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 18Z EXPIRATION. BECAUSE OF ARCHING GEOMETRY OF THREAT...TWO WWS MAY BE NEEDED -- ALIGNED NEARLY SW-NE OVER PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL MS AND SE-NW FARTHER N. PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN TN AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS NWRN AL AND MID TN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK WARM FRONT AND CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM NEAR MEM SEWD ACROSS NERN MS AND NWRN/CENTRAL AL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL REMAIN SO FOR LONGER TO ITS N WHERE PRESSURE FALLS WILL KEEP SFC FLOW RELATIVELY BACKED. STRONGEST BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN S OF WARM FRONT AND AWAY FROM THICKEST CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE WITH 0-1 KM SRH RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG S-CENTRAL MS TO 800 J/KG WRN TN. COLDEST IR CLOUD TOPS AND MOST FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING REMAIN OVER SWRN/CENTRAL MS WHERE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE INDICATED...HOWEVER AIR MASS FARTHER NE SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH TIME THROUGH DIABATIC HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION. SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME ACROSS PORTIONS SRN MS AS CENTRAL CORE OF RITA REMNANTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS AR. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING -- WITH PRESSURE FALLS RETREATING AWAY FROM AREA -- SHOULD RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE VEERED SFC FLOW AND CORRESPONDING REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER STORMS MAY ROTATE IN MEANTIME WITH LINGERING TORNADO POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EVIDENT FROM NEAR HEZ NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL MS. BEHIND THAT BAND...EVEN MORE VEERED FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR S OF CIRCULATION CENTER...AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW NEAR CENTER -- INDICATE WRN PORTION WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK... 33238756 31988842 31378928 31219078 31389138 31649166 31979157 32399106 33329016 34389011 35219055 35899138 36219180 36419172 36569014 36438835 35988765 35248734 34418729 33468753  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 18:22:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 13:22:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509251822.j8PIMaMv016201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251821 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251821 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-252015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...AL...MID TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 819...820... VALID 251821Z - 252015Z AS OF 18Z...SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING NNEWD 35-40 KT ACROSS MS/AL BORDER REGION BETWEEN CBM...MEI...TCL AND MSL. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS MAY EVOLVE FROM TOWERS/ECHOES W MGM AND SW BHM. POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY AFFECT BHM AND HSV VICINITIES WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS. PRIMARY CONFLUENCE BAND -- E OF WHICH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MAXIMIZED DUE TO LACK OF VEERED/WLY FLOW -- EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS MEI AREA TO JUST NE HBG...AND MAY SPAWN A FEW MORE SUPERCELLS BEFORE WINDS VEER AND BOTH CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WEAKEN. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS NRN AL AND SRN MID TN...AHEAD OF MS/AL BORDER AREA SUPERCELLS AND AHEAD OF NEWER CONVECTIVE TOWERS SW OF BHM. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN AL AND MID TN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...IN RESPONSE TO ISALLOBARIC FORCING RELATED TO NEWD EJECTION OF LOW CENTER OVER NERN AR. NARROW CORRIDOR OF 800-1200 J/KG MLCAPE IS EVIDENT ACROSS W-CENTRAL/NWRN AL JUST AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND...AIDED BY DIABATIC SFC HEATING OF INFLOW SECTOR...LOW LEVEL WAA AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW 70S F. AIR MASS FARTHER N INTO MID TN -- N OF DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT -- IS ONLY MARGINALLY BUOYANT ATTM BUT MAY STILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE. BOTH WWS MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND WRN EDGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS....WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING LIFT AND SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX... 31618720 31158806 31128974 31449146 32739011 33918883 35438824 36558855 36628682 36388612 34988557 33838539 33288542 32098658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 20:25:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 15:25:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509252025.j8PKPBWT011947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252024 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-252200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2279 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB/NE KS/SRN IA/NRN MO/WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252024Z - 252200Z ...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/SRN IA/SERN NEB... LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY...THE REMNANTS OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM SERN NEB INTO SRN IA. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL ZONE IS LOCATED FROM SERN NEB INTO CNTRL KS/NW OK. DEEPER MIXING IS OCCURRING NEAR THE IA BOUNDARY WITH AN AGITATED ZONE OF CUMULUS NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. MODIFIED SOUNDING 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING INDICATES CAP IS WEAKENING ACROSS NE KS AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MIXING ALONG FRONTAL ZONES COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY MAY YIELD SFC BASED TSTMS WITHIN 2-3 HOURS. IF STORMS FORM...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS INDICATED ON AREA PROFILERS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL THE GREATEST THREAT. ..TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39989050 38919753 39559807 40799714 41229273 41389052 40778991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 20:43:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 15:43:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509252042.j8PKghCM020105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252041 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...AL...MID TN. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 819...820... VALID 252041Z - 252215Z CONTINUE WWS ALONG/AHEAD OF MAJOR CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM WRN PORTION MID TN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN MS. TORNADO REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM SUPERCELLS OVER TUSCALOOSA...WINSTON AND FAYETTE COUNTIES AL DURING PAST HOUR. ENVIRONMENT FROM CENTRAL MS TO EXTREME NRN AL AND SRN MID TN REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...INVOF AXIS OF GREATEST BUOYANCY...AND AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NARROW CORRIDOR OF 500-1500 SBCAPE AND 250-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN INFLOW REGION OF ACTIVITY OVER ERN MS AND W-CENTRAL/NWRN AL. BUOYANCY DIMINISHES MARKEDLY WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS MID TN -- N OF WEAK WARM FRONT AND IN AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP HAS SOMEWHAT OFFSET EFFECTS OF SFC WAA. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LARGE AND FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS WHOLE CORRIDOR...I.E. 0-1 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS AROUND 35-45 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY EACH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME OVER SRN PORTION WW 820...AS DIABATIC HEATING WEAKENS AND AS PARENT LOW OVER ERN AR/MO BORDER REGION WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX... 31618720 31158806 31128974 31449146 32739011 33918883 35438824 36558855 36628682 36388612 34988557 33838539 33288542 32098658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 20:43:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 15:43:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509252043.j8PKhP2c020410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252042 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2281 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252042Z - 252215Z ...THERE IS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND WITH STORMS NOW FORMING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN IN CNTRL/ERN WY. UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL WY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD THIS AFTN INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY EARLY EVENING. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. PROFILER DATA FROM MEDICINE BOW WY SUGGEST STRONG MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60-70 KT. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ..TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT... 40970423 40950702 42560728 43840576 43900454 43690413 41750363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 20:44:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 15:44:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509252044.j8PKi4Kh020685@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252041 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...AL...MID TN. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 819...820... VALID 252041Z - 252215Z CONTINUE WWS ALONG/AHEAD OF MAJOR CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM WRN PORTION MID TN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN MS. TORNADO REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM SUPERCELLS OVER TUSCALOOSA...WINSTON AND FAYETTE COUNTIES AL DURING PAST HOUR. ENVIRONMENT FROM CENTRAL MS TO EXTREME NRN AL AND SRN MID TN REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...INVOF AXIS OF GREATEST BUOYANCY...AND AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NARROW CORRIDOR OF 500-1500 SBCAPE AND 250-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN INFLOW REGION OF ACTIVITY OVER ERN MS AND W-CENTRAL/NWRN AL. BUOYANCY DIMINISHES MARKEDLY WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS MID TN -- N OF WEAK WARM FRONT AND IN AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP HAS SOMEWHAT OFFSET EFFECTS OF SFC WAA. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LARGE AND FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS WHOLE CORRIDOR...I.E. 0-1 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS AROUND 35-45 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY EACH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME OVER SRN PORTION WW 820...AS DIABATIC HEATING WEAKENS AND AS PARENT LOW OVER ERN AR/MO BORDER REGION WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX... 31618720 31158806 31128974 31449146 32739011 33918883 35438824 36558855 36628682 36388612 34988557 33838539 33288542 32098658  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 20:45:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 15:45:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509252045.j8PKjYqf021357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252042 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2281 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252042Z - 252215Z ...THERE IS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND WITH STORMS NOW FORMING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN IN CNTRL/ERN WY. UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL WY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD THIS AFTN INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY EARLY EVENING. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. PROFILER DATA FROM MEDICINE BOW WY SUGGEST STRONG MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60-70 KT. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ..TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT... 40970423 40950702 42560728 43840576 43900454 43690413 41750363  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 23:07:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 18:07:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509252306.j8PN6l1e020810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252305 ALZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-260000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2282 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CNTRL AND NRN AL THROUGH S CNTRL TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 819...820... VALID 252305Z - 260000Z TORNADO WATCHES 819 AND 820 WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH BEFORE 00Z. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING FROM PARTS OF ERN MS INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN AL AND POSSIBLY A PART OF S CNTRL TN. EARLY THIS EVENING THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF RITA WAS OVER EXTREME NERN ARK MOVING NEWD. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG 40+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ERN MS INTO CNTRL AND NRN AL NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THE BEST COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL AL THIS EVENING WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT INTO TN WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED AND WITH EWD EXTENT TOWARD GA WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE ZONE OF ASCENT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL AND AS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND AWAY FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 09/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 33128576 32328632 31848708 31638808 31658981 32399009 33418900 34328825 35578739 35888675 35648585 34628554 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 03:15:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 22:15:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509260315.j8Q3FR1r009700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260314 ALZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-260445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2283 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 821... VALID 260314Z - 260445Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS ALONG EWD MOVING SQUALL LINE...MAINLY FROM SERN MS NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN AL. LATE THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL SCALE BOW ECHOES EXTENDS FROM NRN AL SWWD THROUGH W CNTRL AL AND INTO SERN MS. THE LINE CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD AT AROUND 20 KT AND SOME BACKBUILDING CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED OVER SERN MS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LINE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR/HELICITY ALONG A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET... FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE FORMATION. LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE STRONGER CELLS ON SRN END OF THE LINE AND UPDRAFTS MAY BE ENHANCED WITHIN STORMS THAT DEVELOP LOW-MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONES DESPITE THE LIMITED BUOYANCY. ..DIAL.. 09/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 33128576 32328632 31848708 31638808 31658981 32399009 33418900 34328825 35578739 35888675 35648585 34628554 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 15:34:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 10:34:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509261534.j8QFYQvJ028670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261533 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS/PARTS OF SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261533Z - 261700Z ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SERN MS INTO PARTS OF SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...AND SWRN GA. 14Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN AL SWWD TO THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...WITH A SECOND TROUGH/CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AROUND 45 S SEM /ALONG THE INITIAL BOUNDARY/ WNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL MS TO SRN AR. SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE ADVECTING A HIGH DEWPOINT /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S/ AIR MASS ACROSS LA INTO SERN MS/SWRN AL. APPARENT MCV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE PER SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE FL PANHANDLE...AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE SSE. IN ADDITION...THE MCV WILL LIKELY ENHANCE KINEMATICS/SRH VALUES ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF SRN AL AND POTENTIALLY SWRN GA FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO...GIVEN LOW LCLS WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS. FARTHER W...SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND W OF THE NNE-SSW ORIENTED BOUNDARY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAPPED AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...AREA VADS INDICATED A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 250-300 M2/S2. THUS...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS WARM SECTOR REGION ACROSS FAR SERN MS INTO SWRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...THEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST. ..PETERS.. 09/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30328883 30958896 31858863 32008786 32008510 31878351 29668355 29448487 29728784 29858829 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 11:10:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 06:10:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509281109.j8SB9xHI025546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281109 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-281315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2285 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO...EXTREME NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281109Z - 281315Z ZONE OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 40+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NOW SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE HAS ALREADY INCREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED TO LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH MID MORNING...AS BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...REFLECTED BY LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD...AND MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS. COUPLED WITH STRONG CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN STRONGER CELLS. WITH ONLY A GRADUAL ELIMINATION OF NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL INVERSION LAYER...AND TENDENCY OF STRONGER CONVECTION TO BE UNDERCUT BY COLD FRONT...DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH MID DAY SEEMS LIMITED. ..KERR.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37509715 38909534 39579381 38849324 37979362 36819448 36219528 36379616 36739700 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 16:58:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 11:58:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509281657.j8SGvW00023873@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281656 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-281830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NERN/ERN MO AND WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281656Z - 281830Z ISOLATED HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN/ERN MO AND THEN SPREAD EWD INTO WRN IL. NEW DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL MO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CENTRAL MO COUNTIES OF PETTIS/SRN SALINE AND WRN COOPER. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP ACROSS THIS REGION PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. NONETHELESS...SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL MO IS FUELING THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER OK INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO WHERE MUCAPE RANGES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX...WHERE LLJ IMPINGES ON THIS ACTIVITY. EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL. IF STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...THEN STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE A THREAT. ..PETERS.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 38129355 39569266 40409183 41159097 41208940 38538997 38189113 38029277 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 17:17:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 12:17:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509281716.j8SHGqjI007117@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281715 FLZ000-GAZ000-281915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA AND SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281715Z - 281915Z INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA NWD INTO SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTAIN POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WW...HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS CONVECTION INCREASES. AT 17Z...SLOW-MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO HAVE ROTATED ENEWD TO A POSITION NEAR MLB ALONG THE E-CENTRAL FL COAST PER RECENT WV IMAGERY. THE 12Z MIAMI AND 14Z CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES /AROUND -10C/ ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW...CONTRIBUTING TO 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...WITH GENERAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MDT AND TOWERING CU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. WHILE MID-LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD BE STRONGEST EAST OF FL PENINSULA...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS /HIGH CAPE AND MINIMAL CIN/ ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PERIOD. WEAK SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT SHOULD LIMIT CELL DURATIONS...LEAVING WET MICROBURSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ..BANACOS.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 27018232 27888266 28348262 28698258 28948260 29388302 29538331 30588301 30758276 30938242 31098217 31128183 30988157 30028145 28688084 27358025 26428031 25978037 25458075 25468107 25968171 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 18:06:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 13:06:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509281805.j8SI5lku013201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281804 NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-282000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/WRN NM...SWRN CO...AND FAR E-CENTRAL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281804Z - 282000Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL/WRN NM AND SWRN CO...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS THE ERN MOGOLLON RIM IN E-CENTRAL AZ. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. NEARLY STATIONARY MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SERN UT IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SWLY 500MB WINDS /40-45 KT/ AND SFC-6KM SHEAR /50-55KT/ ACROSS NERN AZ INTO NWRN NM. DAYTIME HEATING IS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS OF SWRN CO...N-CENTRAL/WRN NM AND E-CENTRAL AZ...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL JET AXIS AND ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING SW-NE. VERTICAL MIXING AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS WILL GRADUALLY DRY LOWER-LEVELS WITH SLOWLY FALLING SFC DEWPOINTS ALREADY OBSERVED. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH COMBINATION OF INSOLATION AND COLD UPPER-LOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH MID-LEVELS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS EVENING /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...LONG-LIVED STORMS INITIATING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SPATIAL EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED BY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT BANKED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...AND BY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS S-CENTRAL NM. DRY SWLY MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO LIMIT THREAT OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF AZ...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. ..BANACOS.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ... 35010552 34550620 34140691 33740805 33570896 33530965 33820995 34140975 34570919 35520866 36640834 37210836 37840876 38140900 38680895 38680763 38500730 37840644 37430601 36610578 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 20:01:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 15:01:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509282001.j8SK11rR005620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281959 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-282100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2289 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/SWRN MO AND WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281959Z - 282100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE SSE. AREA BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW. VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TCU/CBS DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL OK NEWD INTO NERN OK/SWRN MO AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE SSEWD INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHEN COMBINED WITH MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-4000 J/KG. GIVEN THESE KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENTS OF THESE BOUNDARIES. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN... 34909698 35799614 36759549 37229504 37849404 38259316 37819237 35949215 34919318 34489434 34159534 34169680 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 21:53:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 16:53:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509282152.j8SLqRNF022824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282151 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-282315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/CENTRAL AND NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282151Z - 282315Z LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MO/NWRN AR. WE ARE MONITORING SEVERE THREAT DOWNSTREAM -- E OF WW 822 AND W OF THE MS RIVER -- AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR NEW WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE AND INSTABILITY DATA INDICATES DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS WITH EWD EXTENT TOWARD THE MS RIVER. ADDITIONALLY...RUC/NAMKF PFCS INDICATE A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER -- CONSISTENT WITH SHALLOW/STRATUS-TYPE CLOUD DECK APPARENT AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING INVOF FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ELIMINATE CAP...LESS MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME LESS VIGOROUS WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...WITH LATEST SPRINGFIELD MO WSR-88D VWP SHOWING NEAR 50 KT WLY FLOW IN THE 3 TO 6 KM LAYER...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG CONVECTIVE LINE MAY PERSIST E OF WW DESPITE DECREASING INSTABILITY. THIS MAY REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37969114 37939023 37258948 36148973 34739092 34619248 34669345 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 22:46:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 17:46:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509282246.j8SMkH4f021967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282245 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-290045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...FAR SERN OK...AND FAR SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282245Z - 290045Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NERN TX INTO SWRN AR/SERN OK MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING. ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...LIKELY PRECLUDING WW. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. AT 2230Z...SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING GENERALLY SWD...AND EXTENDED FROM 10S LBB TO SPS TO 25W MLC BEFORE ARCING NEWD INTO FAR NWRN AR. A WIND SHIFT PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT BY ROUGHLY 70NM IN N-CENTRAL TX AND ROUGHLY 30NM IN SERN OK. AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS N-S THROUGH THE DFW METRO AREA TO 10W ACT. INTERSECTION OF THIS DRYLINE-LIKE FEATURE WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX. BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXTREMELY HOT ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S IN THE DALLAS METRO AREA. ADDITIONALLY...VERTICAL MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 50-60F WEST OF MOIST AXIS/N-S BOUNDARY. LOW SUB-CLOUD RH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND MAY PRODUCED LOCALIZED AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK IN THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. OUTFLOW DOMINANT CHARACTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EVIDENT IN 0.5DEG REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM FWS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION. AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SSEWD THROUGH FAR SERN OK AND INTO SWRN AR LATER THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION...AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL ACROSS FAR NERN TX/FAR SERN OK/SWRN AR LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. ..BANACOS.. 09/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33969647 33979468 33819364 33019406 32479450 31819554 31359730 31729814 32839843 33479750 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 00:21:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 19:21:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509290021.j8T0L1ls005452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290020 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-290145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN OK/AR/SERN MO/FAR SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 822...823... VALID 290020Z - 290145Z BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION/ MID MS VALLEY. LATEST RADAR SHOWS STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF WW 822 AND THE WRN HALF OF WW 823. ADDITIONALLY...A BOW ECHO HAS EVOLVED -- AND PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE N OF WW 823 ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MO/SRN IL OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...WITH THIS BOW NOW MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER IL...EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. IN THE MEAN TIME...500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS AR AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGEST A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO 1" IN DIAMETER WILL CONTINUE. STORMS MOVING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 823/FAR SERN MO AND NERN AR SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH EWD EXTENT. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL WW INTO FAR WRN KY/WRN TN. ..GOSS.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 38258766 35288880 34009191 34159518 34999459 35359282 37599026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 02:57:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 21:57:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509290257.j8T2vAjd021963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290256 ARZ000-290400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 823... VALID 290256Z - 290400Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...THOUGH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN AND NEAR VALID PORTIONS OF WW FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF AR ATTM...THOUGH COMBINATION OF DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO A SLOW DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE. WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 29/02Z. ..GOSS.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... 34029278 35299180 35259087 34029185 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 07:41:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 02:41:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509290741.j8T7f9tv019160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290740 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-290945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2294 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290740Z - 290945Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TAKING ON INCREASING NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS SUPPORTED NARROW INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS NOT LARGE...AND STORMS LIKELY ARE FAIRLY LOW-TOPPED...ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK AND BEYOND. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF STORMS IS STILL RATHER MILD...NEAR 70F...ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...AS CONVECTION ENHANCES DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER ASSOCIATED WITH 50+ KT MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...SUPPORTING GUSTS BEYOND THAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ..KERR.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL... 43317751 41937804 40097872 38947937 37458131 36918197 36698381 37038443 38778249 40118137 41278087 42208064 43228028 43798013 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 10:11:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 05:11:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509291011.j8TABNdF009918@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291009 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/PA...NJ INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291009Z - 291115Z NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE NEED EAST/SOUTH OF WW 824 BY 12Z. A SLIGHT RISK IS BEING ADDED TO UPCOMING OUTLOOK UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS MAINTAINING NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST OF CURRENT WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING...AND TONGUE OF MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SEEM LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEPENING/INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID DAY HOURS. THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...WITH PEAK SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 70 KT POSSIBLE. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED INTO THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NEW JERSEY BY 15-16Z...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO/THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING THE NEW YORK CITY AREA BY 18Z. ..KERR.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 45977022 44327021 41867212 40127441 39727684 39807841 41417773 42577704 43807672 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 12:25:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 07:25:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509291224.j8TCOPiV025913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291223 VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2296 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/PA...NRN NJ/NEW YORK CITY AREA NORTHWARD THRU VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825... VALID 291223Z - 291400Z CONTINUE WW 825. THOUGH WEAKENING OF UPDRAFTS OCCURRED ALONG NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT PROGRESSED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK STATE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED A BIT COOLER/MORE STABLE THAN FARTHER UPSTREAM...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY BY THE 14-15Z TIME FRAME...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO THE DELAWARE AND HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY...AND THIS MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. COUPLED WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE HEATING...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE AS STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS REGION WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES...PEAK SURFACE GUSTS WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL...AS MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 50-70 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS TRANSFERRED DOWNWARD. ..KERR.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44997296 44247318 42897350 41657404 41137451 40417504 40367596 40507669 41197628 41887608 43057567 43847515 44877481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 14:59:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 09:59:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509291459.j8TExOxL031812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291458 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291458 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...NH...MA...ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825... VALID 291458Z - 291700Z INTENSE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM ERN NY AND ACROSS VT OVER THE NEXT 1.5 HOURS. PORTIONS OF MA...NH AND ME ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH BY NOON EDT. STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 40KT LATE THIS MORNING. DESPITE A DISTINCT DECREASE IN CG LTG OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS...A SEGMENT OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME STRENGTHENING FROM ESSEX COUNTY IN UPSTATE NY TO SULLIVAN COUNTY IN THE SRN CATSKILL MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS VT WAS LIMITING INSTABILITY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL SLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE LIKELY GUSTING TO AT LEAST 40-50KT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN LIMITED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN WW 825 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF NH AND INTO INTERIOR ME MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS TO BE EITHER MAINTAINED OR STRENGTHENED AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS INTO THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...AND VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY EAST OF WW 825 IN ABOUT AN HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44386932 42677082 42077158 41607319 40767488 40317620 41857602 44117526 44967422 45277133 47126946 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 16:10:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 11:10:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509291609.j8TG9qDe024773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291609 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...CT...MA...VT...NH...ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291609Z - 291745Z NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WAS MOVING EAST AT 40-45KT ACROSS VT AND WRN MA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW WATCH EAST OF THE WW 825 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS OFFICES AT BOX...GYX...AND CAR. STRONG PRE-FRONTAL GRADIENT WINDS AND ONLY MARGINALLY GREATER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA WILL REMAIN COVERED BY HIGH WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ACROSS THE REGION. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS STILL POSSIBLE IF INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND/OR CG LIGHTNING DOES INCREASE AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER COORDINATION...A NEW WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT. ..CARBIN.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 44386932 42677082 42077158 41507326 40937440 40657509 40967548 41727483 43117407 44647353 45157356 45277133 47126946 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 19:18:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 14:18:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200509291917.j8TJHqVQ013781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291916 NMZ000-COZ000-292045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291916Z - 292045Z ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY. COMPACT REGION OF STRONG QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CYCLONE WAS SPREADING ESEWD FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER NM AND CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS. DESPITE LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION...STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR COULD SUSTAIN A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORM UPDRAFTS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW FREEZING LEVELS. MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 09/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT... 35770895 36740804 36980712 37050560 36630475 36090421 35370417 34880475 34530550 34140634 33870693 33680749 33570835 33770879 WWWW