[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Oct 31 23:27:13 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 312326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312326 
TXZ000-010100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 312326Z - 010100Z

STORMS ARE GAINING STRENGTH AS NOTED BY INCREASING LIGHTNING
STRIKES/RECENT RADAR DATA ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX...AND THERE EXISTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER. AIRMASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 23Z
SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1400 J/KG...SIMILAR TO SFC
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUC. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR
IS AOA 50 KT...WITH LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM CORPUS CHRISTI
INDICATING A VEERING PROFILE FROM LOW LEVELS. MAIN THREAT SEEMS TO
EXIST FROM ALI TO BRO. AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A
STORM COULD FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENT
IN AREA. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL/ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW AND OVERTURNS
THE AIRMASS.

..TAYLOR.. 10/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

25889722 26489920 28489883 28929771 27269677 26319677 

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