[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Oct 7 21:57:36 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 072156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072156 
SCZ000-GAZ000-072300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 831...

VALID 072156Z - 072300Z

THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
REMAINING PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 831 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  NO
ADDITIONAL WW IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

AS OF 2140Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION
CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 35 WSW OF SAV MOVING NNEWD AT AROUND 20 KTS. 
PER LIGHTNING DATA AND OBSERVED REFLECTIVITY VALUES...CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAE TO CHS AND SAV INDICATE A
COMPARATIVELY WARMER AND MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS CIRCULATION WHICH IS RESULTING POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/.  THUS...SOME POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS LOCALIZED FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION ACTS ON THIS INSTABILITY.  GIVEN THE
MOIST AND MODERATELY SHEARED BOUNDARY-LAYER...SOME THREAT EXISTS FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
BECOME ESTABLISHED.

AFTER 23Z...EXPECT ANY ONGOING STORMS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER GRADUALLY COOLS AND STABILIZES.

..MEAD.. 10/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...

33048105 32168035 31618116 32448187 

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