From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 1 03:56:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 30 Sep 2005 22:56:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510010356.j913uslk024737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010351 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-010515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL OK/N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 826...827... VALID 010351Z - 010515Z STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW 826 AND 827. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPANDING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ATTM...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM FAR WRN OK SSWWD INTO WRN N TX. AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS TO LIKEWISE SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER ERN OK/NERN TX SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF OK/N TX. WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...STORMS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED ON THE STORM SCALE. STORM WITH MOST PERSISTENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS IS NOW OVER CLAY COUNTY TX...AND THIS STORM REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. ELSEWHERE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE HAIL...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 10/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 36450033 37039760 36909640 34159577 33279772 32999967 33080054 34839980  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 1 06:16:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Oct 2005 01:16:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510010616.j916Grk6010528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010616 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010615 OKZ000-TXZ000-010815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 826...827... VALID 010615Z - 010815Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 826 WILL EXPIRE AT 07Z. MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS NOW OVER W CNTRL OK ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EWD INTO WW 827 AFTER 07Z. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING IN NWRN TX AND REMAINING PARTS OF W CNTRL OK MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR NEXT FEW HOURS. EARLY THIS MORNING AN MCS EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX. STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE WRN AND SWRN PORTION OF THE MCS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FEED OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR AND STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE STORMS ARE MOSTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...35-50 KT VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE AND CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE OK MESONET. A 50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING STRONG LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE SWRN FLANKS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH BACKBUILDING LIKELY TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NWRN TX INTO W CNTRL OK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS TRAIN FROM SW-NE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN TX. ..DIAL.. 10/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 34819655 33589793 32749968 32740042 33050047 33749945 34769919 36129931 36879849 36819652 35749608 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 1 20:55:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Oct 2005 15:55:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510012056.j91Ku1Tp010373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012053 OKZ000-KSZ000-012230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK / FAR SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012053Z - 012230Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER N CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...AND A SMALL AREA COULD REQUIRE A WATCH. AIR MASS IS RECOVERING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALSO WEAKENING CAP. MODIFIED 18Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE CIN GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PER LMN AND PRC PROFILERS...ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENT IS LESS THAN OPTIMAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE GIVEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONG...MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHORT LIVED TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ..JEWELL.. 10/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37599541 37379482 36429475 35799493 35589564 35539665 35469785 35429852 35789869 36449841 37089777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 1 23:05:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Oct 2005 18:05:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510012305.j91N5hPt003078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012304 KSZ000-OKZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CENTRAL AND NERN OK/S CENTRAL AND SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 828... VALID 012304Z - 020030Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA. THOUGH THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES...STORM COVERAGE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED ATTM IN AND NEAR WW AREA. STORM NOW MOVING ACROSS NERN CHAUTAUQUA CO KS HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR...LOSING ITS SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. WITH THIS STORM MOVING SLOWLY INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WITH UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT NNEWD/AWAY FROM THE REGION...THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION AND FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF WW -- SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY ALSO AID IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. ..GOSS.. 10/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37149829 37609578 37119531 36539588 36119827 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 2 18:34:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Oct 2005 13:34:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510021834.j92IYHio024393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021833 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-022030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL AND SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021833Z - 022030Z TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES ATOP UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH. STORMS HAVE BEEN SPREADING NNEWD FROM PIA TOWARD RFD THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKLY CAPPED AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WAS DUE TO A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF DECAYING MCS OVER NERN MO...AND WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL IL...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MESOSCALE LIFT FROM NRN IL INTO SRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND PERSISTENCE OF STORM UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED IN VWP AND PROFILER DATA FROM NRN MO INTO ERN IA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS COULD STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR IF THESE FASTER WINDS DEVELOP EAST. AT PRESENT...DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WOULD FAVOR CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 10/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42329029 43429054 44079004 42588858 40848764 40098766 40078911 40389009 40479022 41349010 41739016 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 4 20:29:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 15:29:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510042029.j94KTAbT004150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042028 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-042230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WI/FAR NE IA/SE MN/UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042028Z - 042230Z A MARGINAL BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SE MN..FAR NE IA...CNTRL WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN WI. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AS NEW STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY. ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. ROTATING CELLS MAY HAVE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL. ..BROYLES.. 10/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46148941 46628790 46608705 46298645 45918616 45338648 44688790 43749003 43259117 43239209 43589273 44259268 45169162 45419083 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 4 21:03:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 16:03:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510042103.j94L3Thb003085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042102 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-042300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NEB...NW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042102Z - 042300Z THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS ECNTRL NEB AND NW IA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER ERN CO AND WCNTRL NEB. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM SRN NEB INTO SW MN. SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILERS NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOW 45 TO 55 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE MOST PROMINENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 10/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42989670 43439575 43499508 43349437 43119411 42759402 42189458 41179639 40389795 40289889 40789935 41379936 41889869 42179797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 4 22:29:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 17:29:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510042229.j94MTFXZ006926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042228 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN NEB...NWRN IA...EXTREME SERN SD...SRN MN...WRN WI. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 042228Z - 050130Z BAND OF TSTMS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN HAZARD INVOF INTENSE SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED AT 22Z FROM JUST S GLD NEWD NEAR GRI...SUX...EAU LINE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS NRN IA/SRN MN AND WRN WI WHERE INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RICHEST...WITH 2-2.5 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES IN SOME AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DECREASES WITH SWWD EXTENT...LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGEST CORES ACROSS NEB PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT ON BROADER SCALE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS REMAINING FARTHER SW FOR TIME BEING. LLJ -- PRESENTLY OBSERVED AT 30-40 KT ACROSS REGION PER VWP/PROFILER DATA -- IS FCST TO INCREASE TO 40-60 KT RANGE AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. ORIENTATION OF LLJ SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM WARM SECTOR INDICATES FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. WITH MEAN WIND VECTOR ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRENGTH OF FRONT ITSELF -- EXPECT LIFT TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GENERATING CONVECTION THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY TRAINING OVER MANY OF SAME AREAS. GPS DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS EACH INDICATE 1.75-2 INCH PW BETWEEN LNK-EAU...REPRESENTING LOW LEVEL INFLOW SECTOR FROM MO RIVER REGION NEWD. REF SPC WW 830 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR IA/NEB/SD PART OF THIS CORRIDOR. ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40479930 40709952 41539874 44169555 45169140 44339099 43799265 43369354 42139572 40149936 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 4 22:30:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 17:30:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510042230.j94MUlXP007648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042228 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN NEB...NWRN IA...EXTREME SERN SD...SRN MN...WRN WI. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 042228Z - 050130Z BAND OF TSTMS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN HAZARD INVOF INTENSE SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED AT 22Z FROM JUST S GLD NEWD NEAR GRI...SUX...EAU LINE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS NRN IA/SRN MN AND WRN WI WHERE INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RICHEST...WITH 2-2.5 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES IN SOME AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DECREASES WITH SWWD EXTENT...LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGEST CORES ACROSS NEB PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT ON BROADER SCALE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS REMAINING FARTHER SW FOR TIME BEING. LLJ -- PRESENTLY OBSERVED AT 30-40 KT ACROSS REGION PER VWP/PROFILER DATA -- IS FCST TO INCREASE TO 40-60 KT RANGE AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. ORIENTATION OF LLJ SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM WARM SECTOR INDICATES FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. WITH MEAN WIND VECTOR ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRENGTH OF FRONT ITSELF -- EXPECT LIFT TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GENERATING CONVECTION THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY TRAINING OVER MANY OF SAME AREAS. GPS DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS EACH INDICATE 1.75-2 INCH PW BETWEEN LNK-EAU...REPRESENTING LOW LEVEL INFLOW SECTOR FROM MO RIVER REGION NEWD. REF SPC WW 830 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR IA/NEB/SD PART OF THIS CORRIDOR. ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40479930 40709952 41539874 44169555 45169140 44339099 43799265 43369354 42139572 40149936  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 4 23:44:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 18:44:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510042344.j94NiCgW015934@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042343 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-050145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...EXTREME W-CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042343Z - 050145Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE N OF MN/IA BORDER AND N OF WW 830...MOST INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASINGLY DENSE CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS ACROSS SRN MN AND PORTIONS WRN WI. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AND SHORT LIVED ENOUGH THAT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG/QUASISTATIONARY AND WAVY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM GRB AREA WWD NEAR EAU THEN SWWD ACROSS SUX AREA...NEAR GRI AND GLD. FRONT MAY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THIS AREA FROM AUGMENTATION BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...HOWEVER LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY FAR TO THE SW OVER CO. CONVECTION WITH HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG BOTH SIDES OF FRONT...AND STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE S OF FRONT WHERE SFC-BASED BUOYANT PARCELS WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP -- 6.5-7 DEG C/KM -- BUOYANT LAYER IS DEEP. SFC DEW POINTS IN 70S IN INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH 0-1 KM AGL SRH 200-300 J/KG ALONG FRONT GRADING DOWN TO 100 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR. AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE DENSE...STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD FAVOR SRN EDGE OF MCS WHERE LLJ PROVIDES RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED INFLOW. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314 FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44189184 43629289 43499354 43529584 43619599 44099548 44859358 45399227 44889162 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 4 23:59:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 18:59:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510042359.j94NxwGe024925@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042359 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-050430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE/ERN MT AND NE WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 042359Z - 050430Z HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE INVOF WY BIG HORN MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE MT THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN MT/FAR NE WY INTO THE FAR WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH 06Z. DEEP E/NE UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES -- PER BILLINGS WSR-88D VAD AND RUC SOUNDINGS -- WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY WET SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING NEAR THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS OF NE WY AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE MT. DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON NW PERIPHERY OF PROGRESSIVELY STACKED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT/WY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG UVVS WITHIN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONE. THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO YIELD SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES/MILD GROUND TEMPS WILL KEEP LIQUID-SNOW EQUIVALENTS LOW AND TEND TO INHIBIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. NEVERTHELESS WITH PERSISTENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES/DYNAMIC COOLING AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LATEST SREF/RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND/SUB-32F BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE FAR WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH 06Z...WITH HEAVY WET SNOW PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. ..GUYER.. 10/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 45070823 45690908 46570915 48010500 48130335 46260183 44260300 43720461 43550685 44450743 44650767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 5 00:21:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 19:21:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510050021.j950LlDF003900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050020 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-050215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL IA...E-CENTRAL THROUGH S-CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 830... VALID 050020Z - 050215Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR EAU SWWD ACROSS SUX/GRI REGIONS TO NEAR GLD. MINOR SHIFTS IN FRONTAL POSITION ARE LIKELY DURING NEXT FEW HOURS -- LOCALLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...HOWEVER OVERALL FRONTAL ALIGNMENT AND LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY UNTIL PASSAGE OF SYNOPTIC LOW LATER TONIGHT. WARM SECTOR MUCAPES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG AND MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE FULLY DECOUPLED. ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD CHARACTERIZE AIR MASS JUST N OF FRONT AND AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF CONVECTION. SEVERAL ESTIMATES OF 52 KT WIND AND UP TO 1.75 INCH HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITHIN THIS WW. EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE MARGINAL AND HAIL BASED OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES N OF FRONT...OVER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WARM-SECTOR SBCAPE DIMINISHES DUE TO SLOW DIABATIC COOLING. STILL...STRENGTHENING LLJ AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITHIN SW-NE PLUME ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR...EXPECIALLY NERN NEB/NWRN IA...WITH INTERMITTENT HAIL POSSIBLE. 00Z OAX RAOB STILL SHOWS FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR SEVERE...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 175 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH 250 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 39989825 39950052 43489592 43479345 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 5 03:14:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 22:14:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510050314.j953ESRL007019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050313 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-050445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NEB...PORTIONS NWRN IA...S-CENTRAL/SERN SD. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 830... VALID 050313Z - 050445Z PRIND WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 4Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS BUT WILL BE MARGINAL OVER WW AREA IN S-CENTRAL THROUGH ERN NEB AND NWRN IA...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SFC FRONTAL ZONE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY FROM SERN MN SWWD...BECOMING NEBULOUS THROUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT COVERS MUCH OF NERN IA IN WW 830. FRONT THEN BECOMES SHARPLY DEFINED AGAIN FROM NEAR SUX SWWD ACROSS GRI AREA. FARTHER SW NEAR GLD...SRN EDGE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW IS SURGING SEWD AS INTENSE COLD FRONT...A TREND THAT WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME AS CO CYCLONE EJECTS NEWD TONIGHT. STRONG BAND OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- AND CONCURRENT LINE OF ELEVATED TSTMS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NEB THROUGH NEXT FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS INCREASING OVER VERY BROAD AREA OF NEB AND POSSIBLY SRN SD -- N OF SFC FRONT AND E OF ELEVATED TSTM BAND. THIS AREA IS IN ZONE OF INTENSE/ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA. BROAD/50-60 KT LLJ EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA ACROSS MUCH OF NEB AHEAD OF WRN CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD ISENTROPICALLY LIFT PARCELS TO LFC AND INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE GREATLY THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. ELEVATED MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG JUST N OF FRONT TO AROUND 200-500 J/KG INVOF CENTRAL PORTION NEB/SD BORDER...WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEARS RELATED TO APPROACH OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ROCKIES. ..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU... 39989822 39890025 39790128 39940185 40890206 42030169 43290104 43949905 43849748 43429532 43449357 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 6 19:48:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 06 Oct 2005 14:48:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510061948.j96JmYhx027691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061947 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061947 SCZ000-GAZ000-062145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC/ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061947Z - 062145Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF/ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR ERN GA INTO THE SC COASTAL PLAIN. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD INTO ERN GA/COASTAL SC ON PERIPHERY OF TD TAMMY...ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS FOR SOME LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION WITH CELLS ALONG THE SAVANNAH VALLEY OF ERN GA AND SC COASTAL PLAIN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WEST-EAST ORIENTED COASTAL/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH CAE WSR-88D DEPICTING AROUND 150 M2/S2 0-1 SRH. RELATIVELY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF/ISOLD TORNADO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CELLS INTERACTING WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MARGINAL NATURE OF SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 10/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... 33508216 33758204 34257969 33397903 32188045 31838142 32318227 32868242 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 7 16:10:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 07 Oct 2005 11:10:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510071610.j97GALis019310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071609 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-071815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071609Z - 071815Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED... LONG-LIVED UPPER VORT...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...HAS LIFTED TO A POSITION NEAR THE SC/GA COAST. CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO NEAR THIS WEAK CIRCULATION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE VERY HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION...IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...HENCE LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AHEAD OF THIS NNEWD EJECTING FEATURE. PARTIAL HEATING WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DARROW.. 10/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 32168180 33728089 35547880 34607655 31348014 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 7 18:52:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 07 Oct 2005 13:52:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510071852.j97Iq5Mg007357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071851 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-072015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA...COASTAL SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 831... VALID 071851Z - 072015Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH... ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. LONG-LIVED LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES ITS NWD MOVEMENT AT ROUGHLY 15KT...AND IS LIFTING AWAY FROM MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST...MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1000J/KG. WITH TIME THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FOCUS A BIT FARTHER EAST WHERE LLJ IS LOCATED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. ..DARROW.. 10/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 32438222 33818103 34837874 33377782 30968018 31298196 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 7 21:57:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 07 Oct 2005 16:57:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510072157.j97LvPqH030898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072156 SCZ000-GAZ000-072300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2327 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 831... VALID 072156Z - 072300Z THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 831 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO ADDITIONAL WW IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 2140Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 35 WSW OF SAV MOVING NNEWD AT AROUND 20 KTS. PER LIGHTNING DATA AND OBSERVED REFLECTIVITY VALUES...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAE TO CHS AND SAV INDICATE A COMPARATIVELY WARMER AND MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS CIRCULATION WHICH IS RESULTING POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. THUS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS LOCALIZED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION ACTS ON THIS INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE MOIST AND MODERATELY SHEARED BOUNDARY-LAYER...SOME THREAT EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BECOME ESTABLISHED. AFTER 23Z...EXPECT ANY ONGOING STORMS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER GRADUALLY COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 10/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE... 33048105 32168035 31618116 32448187 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 9 19:41:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 09 Oct 2005 14:41:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510091941.j99JfPOX000410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091940 TXZ000-092145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2328 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT SUN OCT 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091940Z - 092145Z ...STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW... PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO WEST TX HAS AIDED RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY OVER CULBERSON COUNTY. EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS HAVE FORCED A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS E-W SOUTH OF THE MAF AREA...ENHANCING SHEAR ON COOL SIDE OF WIND SHIFT. GREATEST CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS FOR GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EAST AT ROUGHLY 35MPH. INK AND POSSIBLY MAF WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THIS CONVECTION. OT From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 20 16:35:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Oct 2005 11:35:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510201635.j9KGZA95026842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201634 MOZ000-ARZ000-201830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SRN MO THROUGH NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201634Z - 201830Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM SCNTRL AND SRN MO INTO NRN AR. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. WW MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATE THIS MORNING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER ERN KS WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WAS OVER W CNTRL MO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SWRN MO INTO WRN AR. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY. SURFACE HEATING...LOW LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...AND MID LEVEL COOLING/ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM SECTOR MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. ELEVATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS NRN AR AND SERN MO. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SRN MO AND NRN AR AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED THE MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EWD OVER THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED. UNIDIRECTIONAL 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. A SMALL WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS. HOWEVER...THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY CROSS THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 10/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 35679281 36959304 38519316 38819163 37848994 36389064 35529179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 20 20:43:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Oct 2005 15:43:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510202044.j9KKi4Q1025839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202042 MOZ000-ARZ000-202245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202042Z - 202245Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER SRN MO AND SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN CNTRL MO SWWD THROUGH SRN MO AND NWRN AR. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH E CNTRL MO AND SRN IL. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH MO PROMOTED THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AND THIS HAS LIMITED THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS MIXING OUT WITH DEEPENING CUMULUS IN S CNTRL MO ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE INCREASING SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER SRN MO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN MO. UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BUOYANCY. ..DIAL.. 10/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF... 38239110 37839066 37219072 36599135 36339225 36509292 37439237 38229202 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 21 18:21:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 13:21:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510211821.j9LILF0L019887@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211820 SCZ000-GAZ000-212015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL GA THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211820Z - 212015Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN GA INTO CNTRL/ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS FROM S CNTRL GA NEWD THROUGH CNTRL SC. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY COLD...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOREOVER...LOW LEVEL FORCING/CONVERGENCE APPEARS QUITE WEAK. DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING...A WEAK CAP AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH AL SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND DESTABILIZES. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. HOWEVER...THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR SMALL CLUSTERS. ..DIAL.. 10/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... 34117942 33387986 32658030 32258111 33098232 34528037 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 21 18:57:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 13:57:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510211857.j9LIvTqS015471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211856 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-212100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NERN AL AND NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211856Z - 212100Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITHIN A LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM ERN TN SSWWD TROUGH NERN AL. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 800 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING SWD WITH TIME. HOWEVER...FORCING DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT INTO AL. UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35 TO 45 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OVERALL THREAT AND PARTICULARLY THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..DIAL.. 10/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 36298301 35248442 34358496 33958545 34218604 34958557 35988516 36428462 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 22 00:38:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 19:38:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510220038.j9M0c9Ar026536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220036 NCZ000-SCZ000-220230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 220036Z - 220230Z INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SUGGESTS THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. UPCOMING 01Z OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT WW ISSUANCE STILL APPEARS UNNECESSARY AT THIS POINT. DESPITE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM PER 22/00Z RAOBS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/QG FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH NOW ABOUT TO CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WIND PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION FEATURE VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION INDICATED BY THE MODELS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS -- AND AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS GREATER. ..GOSS.. 10/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... 35917640 35267701 33787951 33288078 33478177 34438167 35587988 35947831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 22 07:33:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2005 02:33:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510220733.j9M7XO4V010423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220732 NCZ000-SCZ000-220900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220732Z - 220900Z MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC AS STORMS CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROBESON COUNTY TO NERN NC AT CURRITUCK COUNTY. WW NOT ANTICIPATED. 06Z RUC SOUNDING LOCATED NEAR THE SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN EAST CENTRAL NC INDICATED THAT THE INHIBITION AND OBSERVED INVERSION LAYER BETWEEN 700-750 MB ON THE 00Z MOREHEAD CITY SOUNDING HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY TO AID IN ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OVER THIS REGION AS OBSERVED AT 00Z. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS VA/NC AT THIS TIME COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO...BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL GIVEN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...WHILE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ACTIVITY MAY POTENTIALLY CONTINUE THROUGH 11-12Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST BY THAT TIME FRAME. ..PETERS.. 10/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 35897731 35897672 35717649 35247693 34877787 34497863 34337911 34527954 34987932 35207879 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 22 16:33:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2005 11:33:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510221633.j9MGXUlM001242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221632 NCZ000-VAZ000-221830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2352 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC THROUGH SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221632Z - 221830Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER PARTS OF ERN NC THROUGH SERN VA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING A WEDGE/RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SERN VA SWWD TO ERN NC NEAR ROCKY MOUNT NC THEN SWWD TO JUST E OF CHARLOTTE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM OFF THE SERN NC COAST NWWD TO JUST S OF GOLDSBORO. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THESE BOUNDARIES ACROSS SERN NC CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MIX OUT N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER E CNTRL THROUGH NERN NC AND SERN VA...AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION NWD INTO THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN WILMINGTON AND ROCKY MOUNT WHERE LIFT IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THIS FEATURE. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE APPROACHING STRONG 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 10/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34447762 34547826 35107851 35967759 37177650 36327574 35357572 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 23 09:14:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2005 04:14:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510230918.j9N9ItoN010234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230913 MEZ000-NHZ000-231145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0413 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET ACROSS NRN NH AND NWRN-CENTRAL ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 230913Z - 231145Z SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z AND CONTINUING FOR 2-4 HOURS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NH AND SPREADING INTO NWRN TO CENTRAL MAINE. VIGOROUS/NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY 18Z. TRACK OF SURFACE LOW FROM THE CURRENT LOCATION JUST SOUTH OF MVY/ACK AT 08Z NEWD TO BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA BY 15Z WILL MAINTAIN AN ELY LLJ ACROSS MAINE INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 90 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING ELY LLJ UP TO 50 KT WILL RESULT IN STRONG UPWARD MOTION FROM NRN NH TO NWRN-CENTRAL ME BY 12Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDING PER NAMKF ACROSS NERN NH AT 12Z SUGGESTED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY ABOVE 2000 FEET...GIVEN SATURATED PROFILE WITH STRONG UVVS IN DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE BETWEEN 500-560 MB. THIS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE FOR THE AREA OF CONCERN AND ALSO INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND -2 C BETWEEN 700-850 MB WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN AGGREGATE EFFECT ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM...THIS ISOTHERMAL LAYER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 2-3 HOURS OVER ANY ONE AREA FROM NRN NH TO NWRN/CENTRAL ME. ..PETERS.. 10/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45497068 45597025 45796963 46056899 45896887 45436918 45266951 45046988 44827023 44597039 44307061 44167089 43917117 43847145 43997169 44427157 44987131 45207112 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 23 19:00:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2005 14:00:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510231900.j9NJ0HiT015259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231859 FLZ000-232100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL KEYS AND SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231859Z - 232100Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND SRN FL. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE OVER THE FL KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING NWD THROUGH SRN FL THIS EVENING. A CONFERENCE CALL WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED BEFORE 20Z TO DISCUSS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INITIAL OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA ARE JUST W OF THE FL KEYS. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR DETAILS ON WILMA. THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NNEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIKELY AFFECTING THE WRN MOST KEYS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS IN PROGRESS OVER SRN FL AND BETWEEN THE RAINBANDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE AIDING DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG INDICATED ON THE 18Z KEY WEST SOUNDING. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS OVER THE KEYS ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE FALLS. VWP FROM KEY WEST SHOWS 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 160 M2/S2 AND 200 M2/S2 IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER BASED ON NWD MOVING STORMS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE KEYS AND SRN FL AS WILMA CONTINUES NEWD. ..DIAL.. 10/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 24618177 27058242 27088131 25638006 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 23 22:59:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2005 17:59:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510232259.j9NMx58A021658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232257 FLZ000-240100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 836... VALID 232257Z - 240100Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL. WILMA CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD TOWARD SWRN FL ATTM...WHILE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITHIN LOOSELY-DEFINED OUTER BANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROTATION. ALONG WITH NNWWD-MOVING CELLS MOVING ACROSS THE FL KEYS...A CLUSTER OF WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS IS ALSO INDICATED FROM THE TAMPA AREA EWD INTO OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES -- INVOF WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING W-E ACROSS THIS AREA. THREE TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST HOUR -- ONE IN HARDEE COUNTY AND TWO IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...AND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY -- WHERE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY EXISTS. EXPECT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FL WITH TIME...AS CENTER OF WILMA CONTINUES EASING CLOSER TO THE SWRN FL PENINSULA. ..GOSS.. 10/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX... 29048184 28038090 25217980 24258168 28178373 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 24 00:49:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2005 19:49:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510240049.j9O0noNv006267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240048 FLZ000-240245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 836... VALID 240048Z - 240245Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE WILMA. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR...WHICH WILL COVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL. A MORE WELL-DEFINED OUTER BAND HAS NOW SPREAD EWD INTO THE KEYS...WITH ROTATING STORMS NOW EVIDENT JUST OFF THE SWRN FL COAST. ADDITIONALLY...TORNADOES CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITHIN STORMS OCCURRING BETWEEN TBW AND MLB -- ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. EVENING EYW RAOB SHOWS VERY STRONG WIND FIELD...AND SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY OWING TO 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND INTENSIFYING WIND FIELD WITH THE APPROACH OF WILMA...EXPECT TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FL PENINSULA. WITH SEVERAL COUNTIES ALONG THE E COAST OF FL NOT IN A TORNADO WATCH ATTM...AND WITH THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..GOSS.. 10/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 29138070 27647993 25217980 24258168 28278306 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 24 03:14:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2005 22:14:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510240314.j9O3EmjO010008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240313 FLZ000-240515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837... VALID 240313Z - 240515Z TORNADO WATCH 837 CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS THROUGH 15Z. HURRICANE WILMA...CURRENTLY 170 MILES SW OF NAPLES FL PER 03Z NHC ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE A NEWD PATH TOWARD THE SWRN FL COAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE EXISTS IN VICINITY OF HURRICANE SPIRAL BANDS...AND ALSO IN PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES BASED ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES. AT KEY WEST...0-1KM SRH VALUES ARE AROUND 350 M2/S2 BASED ON EXTREME RADAR BASED CELL MOTIONS OF 185/60-65KT. EMBEDDED...FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITHIN OUTER BANDS OF WILMA WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AS BANDS GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF S-CENTRAL/SRN FL AND THE KEYS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHER REGION OF CONCERN IS ACROSS CENTRAL FL...WHERE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL TO JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG PERSIST ALONG THIS AXIS...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN BREVARD COUNTY. BULK OF CG LIGHTNING HAS BEEN WITH CELL MOVING NEWD OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND ALSO WITH LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OVER LAKE COUNTY AT 0310Z. CENTRAL FL STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS THEY TRACK SLOWLY NNEWD. THIS INCLUDES AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES WITH PERSISTENT LAKE COUNTY SUPERCELL DURING NEXT HOUR OR SO. INCREASED INTERACTION BETWEEN OUTER BANDS OF WILMA WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 10/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 24158134 26328234 28238300 28828177 29068107 28548034 25907942 25237924 24608005 24148128 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 24 08:18:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 03:18:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510240818.j9O8IaL0000620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240817 MEZ000-NHZ000-241015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837... VALID 240817Z - 241015Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS. 07Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE STALLED FRONT EXTENDED NE-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY TO SARASOTA COUNTY. DESPITE A NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL...INCREASING 0-3 KM SRH /250-300 M2/S2/ WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE WILMA IS CONTINUING TO RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THIS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADARS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL FL. STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN A MORE DEVIANT MOTION /160-190 DEGREES/ THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT AND LONG-LIVED STORM ROTATION. LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY EMBEDDED AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS AS WILMA APPROACHES SRN FL AND THE KEYS. ..PETERS.. 10/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45497068 45597025 45796963 46056899 45896887 45436918 45266951 45046988 44827023 44597039 44307061 44167089 43917117 43847145 43997169 44427157 44987131 45207112 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 24 08:29:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 03:29:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510240829.j9O8TY3l028224@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240828 COR FLZ000-241015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837... VALID 240828Z - 241015Z CORRECTED LAT/LON POINTS THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS. 07Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE STALLED FRONT EXTENDED NE-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY TO SARASOTA COUNTY. DESPITE A NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL...INCREASING 0-3 KM SRH /250-300 M2/S2/ WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE WILMA IS CONTINUING TO RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THIS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADARS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL FL. STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN A MORE DEVIANT MOTION /160-190 DEGREES/ THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT AND LONG-LIVED STORM ROTATION. LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY EMBEDDED AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS AS WILMA APPROACHES SRN FL AND THE KEYS. ..PETERS.. 10/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX... 28398315 28668253 29298125 29388100 29168068 25567938 24628034 24208144 24538216 25888216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 25 12:41:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2005 07:41:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510251241.j9PCfl9L021612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251240 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-251745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2361 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WV/SWRN PA TO PORTIONS OF WRN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 251240Z - 251745Z ...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND INCH PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN LOWER ELEVATIONS... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN WV. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NRN VA BY LATE AFTN...DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP ACROSS WRN PA INTO NRN WV...POSSIBLY ENHANCING SNOW RATES IN THIS ZONE. COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING /NOTED VIA COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN IR IMAGERY/ WILL FAVOR SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET THIS MORNING. RECENT RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS AT 1215Z EXTENDS FROM CKB/BFD/ELZ...BUT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY ELEVATION CHANGES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES VIA AGGREGATE EFFECTS. MODEL SOLNS DIFFER WITH THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE GFS BEING THE WARMEST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WHILE THE RUC IS THE COLDEST. TREND OF THE 06Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EARLIER RUNS...SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO RAIN AFTER 17-18Z. ..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 10/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... 42287838 40357993 39088095 38238067 38707950 40047826 41597767 42187751 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 25 16:59:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2005 11:59:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510251700.j9PH0U4k014688@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251659 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-252200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY / NRN VT / NRN NH / NRN ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 251659Z - 252200Z HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING ACROSS REGION. 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT VWPS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY IS LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG WAA IN THE 2-5 KM AGL LAYER...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION THUS FAR HAS BEEN MAINLY LIQUID EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NRN NH WHERE SOME SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 850-700 MB FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AS IT PIVOTS NWD/NWWD AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS OCCURS...BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND DEEPEN...WITH MORE INTENSE MESOSCALE...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DYNAMIC COOLING OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS AREA...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW INITIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT FROM THE ADIRONDACKS OF UPSTATE NY ACROSS THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD TEND TO DROP TO BELOW 1000 FT THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING AND WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING. ..MEAD.. 10/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY... 43537509 44597455 44897308 44957169 45667055 45926984 45256984 44217086 43757171 43307293 43067477 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 25 23:16:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2005 18:16:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510252317.j9PNH7xD020802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252316 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-260415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2363 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME / NRN NH / NRN VT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 252316Z - 260415Z HEAVY WET SNOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HRLY RATES NEAR 1 INCH. BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN ME INTO ERN NH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. HRLY LIQUID MEASUREMENTS ARE AVERAGING 0.10-0.15 IN/HR WHICH WILL EQUATE TO ROUGHLY 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 500 FEET...SUGGESTING HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE OVER NWRN ME AS WELL AS NRN NH WHERE HIGHER TERRAIN EXISTS. ..JEWELL.. 10/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 44866997 44487064 44387220 44927232 45577064 46966996 47526924 47336827 46736803 46076824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 27 18:26:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2005 13:26:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510271827.j9RIR2f4000889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271825 TXZ000-272100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271825Z - 272100Z BLEND OF MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER DISCUSSION AREA DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL POSSIBLE. WW NOT PLANNED ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 18Z SFC DATA AND VIS CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE MAIN FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT LINE FROM KENEDY/WILLACY COUNTIES NWWD TO NRN WEBB COUNTY. COMBINED SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ESTIMATED FROM ERN DUVAL COUNTY SWD INTO NRN HIDALGO COUNTY AND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE LEAVING THOSE COUNTIES. FRONT HAS STALLED AND MAY RETREAT N OVER WEBB COUNTY AND COT AREA...AND INTERSECTS OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE LINE OVER BROOKS COUNTY. LARGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ALONG AND N OF FRONT...BUT STRONGEST SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO ITS S. NET RESULT IS MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR SFC-BASED STORMS TO ROTATE BEING INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED FARTHER N TOWARD SAT WHERE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SLIGHTLY. ELY/ENELY FLOW NEAR FRONT RESULTS IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS MOVING SWD TOWARD WARMER AIR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. WEAK WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS ARE NOTED IN 850-700 MB LAYER OVER MUCH OF AREA. PEAK DIURNAL HEATING WILL OFFSET MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...AIDED BY HORIZONTALLY NARROW BUT VERTICALLY THICK SLAB OF MODIFIED RETURN FLOW AIR SAMPLED IN 12Z BRO RAOB. ..EDWARDS.. 10/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 25959713 25949720 25949724 25889729 25839736 25859741 25919754 26009764 26049790 26079818 26149838 26239851 26259867 26359877 26389909 26499912 26569916 26719920 26849928 26879933 27069946 27319950 27479948 27599951 27679970 27809986 28160006 28290028 28520036 28690047 28890060 29090067 29170078 29280082 29670134 29749915 29439815 28189778 27159787 26989690 26389645 25959648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 29 20:23:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Oct 2005 15:23:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510292023.j9TKNhvC023114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292022 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN/E-CENTRAL CO...SWRN KS...WRN/CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NERN NM...EXTREME NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292022Z - 292215Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH 22Z...INVOF SFC TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE FROM HARDING COUNTY NM EWD ACROSS WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLES INTO SWRN KS. MEANWHILE TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT NOW SURGING SWD ACROSS ERN CO. ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE STG GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH-BASED CU AND TCU DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND SFC TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS BACA COUNTY CO...SWRN KS AND OK PANHANDLE BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY FRONT. DRY DOWNSLOPING IS EVIDENT AT SFC BEHIND TROUGH...WHICH IS BECOMING EFFECTIVE DRYLINE WITH UP TO ABOUT 20 DEG ZONAL ISODROSOTHERMAL GRADIENT. EXPECT MOST VIGOROUS/DEEPEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND AS ACTIVITY TO ITS W CROSSES IT. PEAK SFC HEATING AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SFC DEW POINTS YIELD ABOUT 1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS...BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EXCEED 9 DEG C/KM. EFFECTIVE SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS SMALL -- GENERALLY UNDER 30 KT. THEREFORE DOMINANT MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESTRICT DURATION OF DISCRETE UPDRAFTS AND...BY EXTENSION...LIMIT PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL SIZE. COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 20Z FROM BETWEEN GLD-MCK SWWD TO KIOWA COUNTY THEN WNWWD TO BETWEEN COS-PUB. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EVIDENT ALONG THIS FRONT...WITH 0-3 KM SRH 200-250 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS APPEARS TO CONTAIN SOME SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...FRONT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...MOVING SWD 15-20 KT ACROSS ERN CO...WITH ANTECEDENT CAA LIMITING MLCAPES TO BELOW 200 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 10/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 35820390 36690296 37530219 38070201 38290236 38210324 38150427 38860416 39220378 39440222 39260144 38800061 37840052 36670150 35770325 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 05:49:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 00:49:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510310549.j9V5nuXl000451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310548 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-310745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2366 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST SUN OCT 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK AND NERN TX PANHANDLES THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310548Z - 310745Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OK NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER STORMS OVER OK MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH SRN KS AND INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LIFT WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM SWRN KS THROUGH THE ERN OK PANHANDLE. INTENSIFYING NLY JET OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWD SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...COINCIDENT WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION. THE THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS THE STRONGER CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW. FARTHER EAST...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND COOLING MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACCOMPANYING AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER OK WITHIN THE ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 10/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 34919615 34389815 35400065 36780155 38000020 37489829 36689552 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 16:56:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 11:56:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510311656.j9VGudER021844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311655 TXZ000-311800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CST MON OCT 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311655Z - 311800Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS ROOT INTO A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THREAT WILL THEN SPREAD EWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN TX THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON. STORMS ALONG SRN END OF EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE ARE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL TX LATE THIS MORNING. WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...EXPECT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE/CAP LAYER AROUND 800 MB WHICH WILL BE OVERCOME BY VERTICAL MOTION/COOLING NEAR 18Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT. THUS... ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED. ..EVANS.. 10/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29229679 28979784 29259838 29979859 30979824 32099679 32329555 31749494 30769495 29939566 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 19:54:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 14:54:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510311954.j9VJsep7004442@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311953 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-312130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2368 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN TX..SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 838... VALID 311953Z - 312130Z BROKEN SQUALL LINE CONTINUES MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 30 KT ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WITH A MORE EWD MOTION OVER NERN TX INTO FAR SWRN AR. WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN WW FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW. DESPITE THE MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY APPARENT INTO E-CENTRAL/NERN TX AND SRN AR...ONGOING/VIGOROUS CONVECTION INDICATES BUOYANCY FIELDS ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...ORIENTATION OF WLY MEAN WIND VECTORS AND MORE N-S ORIENTED BOW ECHOES INDICATE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH EWD MOVING STORMS ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE LINE. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 20 DEGREE SFC T-TD SPREADS/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NWRN LA/SRN AR. /REFERENCE WW 839 JUST ISSUED FOR THIS ACTIVITY./ LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE AIR MASS IS NOW WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF ADVANCING SQUALL LINE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG INTO MUCH OF ERN TX. PAT PROFILER ALSO INDICATES MODEST SHEAR WITHIN WARM SECTOR /0-3 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KT/. SEWD MOTION OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDERCUTTING STORMS DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL AND SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN WLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY LIMIT SUSTAINED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALONG SWRN PORTION OF SQUALL LINE...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CORES. IN ADDITION...BROAD REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAKENING CINH IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD MOIST CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE ATTM...AND THESE STORMS MAY SUSTAIN A HAIL/WIND THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS.. 10/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 28379885 30989876 33379406 33949391 33929174 31449211 30729423 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 20:55:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 15:55:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510312055.j9VKtanD024365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312054 LAZ000-TXZ000-312200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2369 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312054Z - 312200Z NEW WW WILL SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SERN TX/SWRN LA. THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITHIN AND AHEAD OF ONGOING SQUALL LINE CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF SABINE RIVER ATTM...AND QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT EWD EXTENT OF GREATER INSTABILITY INTO WRN LA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 60+ SFC DEW POINTS...AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY...WILL DEVELOP INTO SWRN LA BY 03Z. STORMS WILL ALSO BE SUSTAINED ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST THIS EVENING. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO SWRN LA. ..EVANS.. 10/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... 31369412 31359283 29929282 29419407 28279665 29269709 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 23:11:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 18:11:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510312311.j9VNBOjr022728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312310 LAZ000-010045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA THROUGH EXTREME SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 839... VALID 312310Z - 010045Z THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS SQUALL LINE CONTINUES EWD THROUGH NRN LA. HOWEVER...THIS PART OF THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES INTO NERN LA. STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF OR WEAKEN WITHIN WW 839 BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 02Z. EARLY THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL LA SWWD THROUGH SERN TX MOVING SEWD AT 30 KT. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE TX COAST AND INTO SWRN LA WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS. FARTHER N ACROSS NRN LA...THE LINE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AS IT MOVES EWD. MOREOVER...THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. GIVEN THESE LIMITING FACTORS...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH NRN LA. ..DIAL.. 10/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 32529163 31439210 31409354 32809212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 23:27:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 18:27:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510312327.j9VNRMJS032704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312326 TXZ000-010100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 312326Z - 010100Z STORMS ARE GAINING STRENGTH AS NOTED BY INCREASING LIGHTNING STRIKES/RECENT RADAR DATA ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX...AND THERE EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER. AIRMASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 23Z SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1400 J/KG...SIMILAR TO SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUC. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR IS AOA 50 KT...WITH LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM CORPUS CHRISTI INDICATING A VEERING PROFILE FROM LOW LEVELS. MAIN THREAT SEEMS TO EXIST FROM ALI TO BRO. AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A STORM COULD FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENT IN AREA. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL/ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW AND OVERTURNS THE AIRMASS. ..TAYLOR.. 10/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 25889722 26489920 28489883 28929771 27269677 26319677 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 1 03:56:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 30 Sep 2005 22:56:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510010356.j913uslk024737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010351 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-010515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL OK/N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 826...827... VALID 010351Z - 010515Z STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW 826 AND 827. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPANDING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ATTM...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM FAR WRN OK SSWWD INTO WRN N TX. AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS TO LIKEWISE SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER ERN OK/NERN TX SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF OK/N TX. WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...STORMS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED ON THE STORM SCALE. STORM WITH MOST PERSISTENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS IS NOW OVER CLAY COUNTY TX...AND THIS STORM REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. ELSEWHERE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE HAIL...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 10/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 36450033 37039760 36909640 34159577 33279772 32999967 33080054 34839980  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 1 06:16:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Oct 2005 01:16:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510010616.j916Grk6010528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010616 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010615 OKZ000-TXZ000-010815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 826...827... VALID 010615Z - 010815Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 826 WILL EXPIRE AT 07Z. MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS NOW OVER W CNTRL OK ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EWD INTO WW 827 AFTER 07Z. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING IN NWRN TX AND REMAINING PARTS OF W CNTRL OK MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR NEXT FEW HOURS. EARLY THIS MORNING AN MCS EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX. STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE WRN AND SWRN PORTION OF THE MCS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FEED OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR AND STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE STORMS ARE MOSTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...35-50 KT VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE AND CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE OK MESONET. A 50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING STRONG LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE SWRN FLANKS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH BACKBUILDING LIKELY TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NWRN TX INTO W CNTRL OK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS TRAIN FROM SW-NE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN TX. ..DIAL.. 10/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 34819655 33589793 32749968 32740042 33050047 33749945 34769919 36129931 36879849 36819652 35749608 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 1 20:55:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Oct 2005 15:55:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510012056.j91Ku1Tp010373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012053 OKZ000-KSZ000-012230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK / FAR SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012053Z - 012230Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER N CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...AND A SMALL AREA COULD REQUIRE A WATCH. AIR MASS IS RECOVERING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALSO WEAKENING CAP. MODIFIED 18Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE CIN GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PER LMN AND PRC PROFILERS...ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENT IS LESS THAN OPTIMAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE GIVEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONG...MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHORT LIVED TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ..JEWELL.. 10/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37599541 37379482 36429475 35799493 35589564 35539665 35469785 35429852 35789869 36449841 37089777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 1 23:05:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Oct 2005 18:05:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510012305.j91N5hPt003078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012304 KSZ000-OKZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CENTRAL AND NERN OK/S CENTRAL AND SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 828... VALID 012304Z - 020030Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA. THOUGH THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES...STORM COVERAGE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED ATTM IN AND NEAR WW AREA. STORM NOW MOVING ACROSS NERN CHAUTAUQUA CO KS HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR...LOSING ITS SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. WITH THIS STORM MOVING SLOWLY INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WITH UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT NNEWD/AWAY FROM THE REGION...THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION AND FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF WW -- SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY ALSO AID IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. ..GOSS.. 10/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37149829 37609578 37119531 36539588 36119827 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 2 18:34:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Oct 2005 13:34:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510021834.j92IYHio024393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021833 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-022030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL AND SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021833Z - 022030Z TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES ATOP UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH. STORMS HAVE BEEN SPREADING NNEWD FROM PIA TOWARD RFD THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKLY CAPPED AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WAS DUE TO A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF DECAYING MCS OVER NERN MO...AND WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL IL...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MESOSCALE LIFT FROM NRN IL INTO SRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND PERSISTENCE OF STORM UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED IN VWP AND PROFILER DATA FROM NRN MO INTO ERN IA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS COULD STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR IF THESE FASTER WINDS DEVELOP EAST. AT PRESENT...DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WOULD FAVOR CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 10/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42329029 43429054 44079004 42588858 40848764 40098766 40078911 40389009 40479022 41349010 41739016 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 4 20:29:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 15:29:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510042029.j94KTAbT004150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042028 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-042230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WI/FAR NE IA/SE MN/UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042028Z - 042230Z A MARGINAL BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SE MN..FAR NE IA...CNTRL WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN WI. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AS NEW STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY. ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. ROTATING CELLS MAY HAVE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL. ..BROYLES.. 10/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46148941 46628790 46608705 46298645 45918616 45338648 44688790 43749003 43259117 43239209 43589273 44259268 45169162 45419083 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 4 21:03:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 16:03:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510042103.j94L3Thb003085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042102 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-042300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NEB...NW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042102Z - 042300Z THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS ECNTRL NEB AND NW IA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER ERN CO AND WCNTRL NEB. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM SRN NEB INTO SW MN. SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILERS NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOW 45 TO 55 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE MOST PROMINENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 10/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42989670 43439575 43499508 43349437 43119411 42759402 42189458 41179639 40389795 40289889 40789935 41379936 41889869 42179797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 4 22:29:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 17:29:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510042229.j94MTFXZ006926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042228 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN NEB...NWRN IA...EXTREME SERN SD...SRN MN...WRN WI. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 042228Z - 050130Z BAND OF TSTMS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN HAZARD INVOF INTENSE SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED AT 22Z FROM JUST S GLD NEWD NEAR GRI...SUX...EAU LINE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS NRN IA/SRN MN AND WRN WI WHERE INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RICHEST...WITH 2-2.5 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES IN SOME AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DECREASES WITH SWWD EXTENT...LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGEST CORES ACROSS NEB PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT ON BROADER SCALE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS REMAINING FARTHER SW FOR TIME BEING. LLJ -- PRESENTLY OBSERVED AT 30-40 KT ACROSS REGION PER VWP/PROFILER DATA -- IS FCST TO INCREASE TO 40-60 KT RANGE AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. ORIENTATION OF LLJ SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM WARM SECTOR INDICATES FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. WITH MEAN WIND VECTOR ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRENGTH OF FRONT ITSELF -- EXPECT LIFT TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GENERATING CONVECTION THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY TRAINING OVER MANY OF SAME AREAS. GPS DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS EACH INDICATE 1.75-2 INCH PW BETWEEN LNK-EAU...REPRESENTING LOW LEVEL INFLOW SECTOR FROM MO RIVER REGION NEWD. REF SPC WW 830 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR IA/NEB/SD PART OF THIS CORRIDOR. ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40479930 40709952 41539874 44169555 45169140 44339099 43799265 43369354 42139572 40149936 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 4 22:30:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 17:30:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510042230.j94MUlXP007648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042228 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN NEB...NWRN IA...EXTREME SERN SD...SRN MN...WRN WI. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 042228Z - 050130Z BAND OF TSTMS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN HAZARD INVOF INTENSE SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED AT 22Z FROM JUST S GLD NEWD NEAR GRI...SUX...EAU LINE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS NRN IA/SRN MN AND WRN WI WHERE INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RICHEST...WITH 2-2.5 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES IN SOME AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DECREASES WITH SWWD EXTENT...LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGEST CORES ACROSS NEB PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT ON BROADER SCALE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS REMAINING FARTHER SW FOR TIME BEING. LLJ -- PRESENTLY OBSERVED AT 30-40 KT ACROSS REGION PER VWP/PROFILER DATA -- IS FCST TO INCREASE TO 40-60 KT RANGE AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. ORIENTATION OF LLJ SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM WARM SECTOR INDICATES FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. WITH MEAN WIND VECTOR ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRENGTH OF FRONT ITSELF -- EXPECT LIFT TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GENERATING CONVECTION THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY TRAINING OVER MANY OF SAME AREAS. GPS DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS EACH INDICATE 1.75-2 INCH PW BETWEEN LNK-EAU...REPRESENTING LOW LEVEL INFLOW SECTOR FROM MO RIVER REGION NEWD. REF SPC WW 830 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR IA/NEB/SD PART OF THIS CORRIDOR. ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40479930 40709952 41539874 44169555 45169140 44339099 43799265 43369354 42139572 40149936  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 4 23:44:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 18:44:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510042344.j94NiCgW015934@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042343 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-050145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...EXTREME W-CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042343Z - 050145Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE N OF MN/IA BORDER AND N OF WW 830...MOST INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASINGLY DENSE CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS ACROSS SRN MN AND PORTIONS WRN WI. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AND SHORT LIVED ENOUGH THAT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG/QUASISTATIONARY AND WAVY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM GRB AREA WWD NEAR EAU THEN SWWD ACROSS SUX AREA...NEAR GRI AND GLD. FRONT MAY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THIS AREA FROM AUGMENTATION BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...HOWEVER LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY FAR TO THE SW OVER CO. CONVECTION WITH HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG BOTH SIDES OF FRONT...AND STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE S OF FRONT WHERE SFC-BASED BUOYANT PARCELS WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP -- 6.5-7 DEG C/KM -- BUOYANT LAYER IS DEEP. SFC DEW POINTS IN 70S IN INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH 0-1 KM AGL SRH 200-300 J/KG ALONG FRONT GRADING DOWN TO 100 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR. AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE DENSE...STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD FAVOR SRN EDGE OF MCS WHERE LLJ PROVIDES RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED INFLOW. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314 FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44189184 43629289 43499354 43529584 43619599 44099548 44859358 45399227 44889162 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 4 23:59:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 18:59:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510042359.j94NxwGe024925@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042359 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-050430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE/ERN MT AND NE WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 042359Z - 050430Z HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE INVOF WY BIG HORN MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE MT THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN MT/FAR NE WY INTO THE FAR WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH 06Z. DEEP E/NE UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES -- PER BILLINGS WSR-88D VAD AND RUC SOUNDINGS -- WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY WET SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING NEAR THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS OF NE WY AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE MT. DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON NW PERIPHERY OF PROGRESSIVELY STACKED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT/WY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG UVVS WITHIN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONE. THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO YIELD SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES/MILD GROUND TEMPS WILL KEEP LIQUID-SNOW EQUIVALENTS LOW AND TEND TO INHIBIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. NEVERTHELESS WITH PERSISTENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES/DYNAMIC COOLING AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LATEST SREF/RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND/SUB-32F BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE FAR WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH 06Z...WITH HEAVY WET SNOW PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. ..GUYER.. 10/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 45070823 45690908 46570915 48010500 48130335 46260183 44260300 43720461 43550685 44450743 44650767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 5 00:21:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 19:21:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510050021.j950LlDF003900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050020 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-050215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL IA...E-CENTRAL THROUGH S-CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 830... VALID 050020Z - 050215Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR EAU SWWD ACROSS SUX/GRI REGIONS TO NEAR GLD. MINOR SHIFTS IN FRONTAL POSITION ARE LIKELY DURING NEXT FEW HOURS -- LOCALLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...HOWEVER OVERALL FRONTAL ALIGNMENT AND LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY UNTIL PASSAGE OF SYNOPTIC LOW LATER TONIGHT. WARM SECTOR MUCAPES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG AND MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE FULLY DECOUPLED. ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD CHARACTERIZE AIR MASS JUST N OF FRONT AND AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF CONVECTION. SEVERAL ESTIMATES OF 52 KT WIND AND UP TO 1.75 INCH HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITHIN THIS WW. EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE MARGINAL AND HAIL BASED OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES N OF FRONT...OVER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WARM-SECTOR SBCAPE DIMINISHES DUE TO SLOW DIABATIC COOLING. STILL...STRENGTHENING LLJ AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITHIN SW-NE PLUME ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR...EXPECIALLY NERN NEB/NWRN IA...WITH INTERMITTENT HAIL POSSIBLE. 00Z OAX RAOB STILL SHOWS FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR SEVERE...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 175 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH 250 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 39989825 39950052 43489592 43479345 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 5 03:14:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 04 Oct 2005 22:14:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510050314.j953ESRL007019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050313 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-050445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NEB...PORTIONS NWRN IA...S-CENTRAL/SERN SD. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 830... VALID 050313Z - 050445Z PRIND WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 4Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS BUT WILL BE MARGINAL OVER WW AREA IN S-CENTRAL THROUGH ERN NEB AND NWRN IA...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SFC FRONTAL ZONE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY FROM SERN MN SWWD...BECOMING NEBULOUS THROUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT COVERS MUCH OF NERN IA IN WW 830. FRONT THEN BECOMES SHARPLY DEFINED AGAIN FROM NEAR SUX SWWD ACROSS GRI AREA. FARTHER SW NEAR GLD...SRN EDGE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW IS SURGING SEWD AS INTENSE COLD FRONT...A TREND THAT WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME AS CO CYCLONE EJECTS NEWD TONIGHT. STRONG BAND OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- AND CONCURRENT LINE OF ELEVATED TSTMS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NEB THROUGH NEXT FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS INCREASING OVER VERY BROAD AREA OF NEB AND POSSIBLY SRN SD -- N OF SFC FRONT AND E OF ELEVATED TSTM BAND. THIS AREA IS IN ZONE OF INTENSE/ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA. BROAD/50-60 KT LLJ EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA ACROSS MUCH OF NEB AHEAD OF WRN CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD ISENTROPICALLY LIFT PARCELS TO LFC AND INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE GREATLY THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. ELEVATED MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG JUST N OF FRONT TO AROUND 200-500 J/KG INVOF CENTRAL PORTION NEB/SD BORDER...WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEARS RELATED TO APPROACH OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ROCKIES. ..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU... 39989822 39890025 39790128 39940185 40890206 42030169 43290104 43949905 43849748 43429532 43449357 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 6 19:48:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 06 Oct 2005 14:48:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510061948.j96JmYhx027691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061947 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061947 SCZ000-GAZ000-062145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC/ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061947Z - 062145Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF/ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR ERN GA INTO THE SC COASTAL PLAIN. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD INTO ERN GA/COASTAL SC ON PERIPHERY OF TD TAMMY...ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS FOR SOME LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION WITH CELLS ALONG THE SAVANNAH VALLEY OF ERN GA AND SC COASTAL PLAIN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WEST-EAST ORIENTED COASTAL/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH CAE WSR-88D DEPICTING AROUND 150 M2/S2 0-1 SRH. RELATIVELY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF/ISOLD TORNADO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CELLS INTERACTING WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MARGINAL NATURE OF SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 10/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... 33508216 33758204 34257969 33397903 32188045 31838142 32318227 32868242 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 7 16:10:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 07 Oct 2005 11:10:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510071610.j97GALis019310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071609 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-071815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071609Z - 071815Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED... LONG-LIVED UPPER VORT...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...HAS LIFTED TO A POSITION NEAR THE SC/GA COAST. CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO NEAR THIS WEAK CIRCULATION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE VERY HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION...IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...HENCE LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AHEAD OF THIS NNEWD EJECTING FEATURE. PARTIAL HEATING WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DARROW.. 10/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 32168180 33728089 35547880 34607655 31348014 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 7 18:52:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 07 Oct 2005 13:52:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510071852.j97Iq5Mg007357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071851 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-072015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA...COASTAL SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 831... VALID 071851Z - 072015Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH... ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. LONG-LIVED LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES ITS NWD MOVEMENT AT ROUGHLY 15KT...AND IS LIFTING AWAY FROM MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST...MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1000J/KG. WITH TIME THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FOCUS A BIT FARTHER EAST WHERE LLJ IS LOCATED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. ..DARROW.. 10/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 32438222 33818103 34837874 33377782 30968018 31298196 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 7 21:57:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 07 Oct 2005 16:57:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510072157.j97LvPqH030898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072156 SCZ000-GAZ000-072300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2327 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 831... VALID 072156Z - 072300Z THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 831 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO ADDITIONAL WW IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 2140Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 35 WSW OF SAV MOVING NNEWD AT AROUND 20 KTS. PER LIGHTNING DATA AND OBSERVED REFLECTIVITY VALUES...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAE TO CHS AND SAV INDICATE A COMPARATIVELY WARMER AND MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS CIRCULATION WHICH IS RESULTING POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. THUS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS LOCALIZED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION ACTS ON THIS INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE MOIST AND MODERATELY SHEARED BOUNDARY-LAYER...SOME THREAT EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BECOME ESTABLISHED. AFTER 23Z...EXPECT ANY ONGOING STORMS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER GRADUALLY COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 10/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE... 33048105 32168035 31618116 32448187 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 9 19:41:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 09 Oct 2005 14:41:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510091941.j99JfPOX000410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091940 TXZ000-092145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2328 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT SUN OCT 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091940Z - 092145Z ...STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW... PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO WEST TX HAS AIDED RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY OVER CULBERSON COUNTY. EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS HAVE FORCED A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS E-W SOUTH OF THE MAF AREA...ENHANCING SHEAR ON COOL SIDE OF WIND SHIFT. GREATEST CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS FOR GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EAST AT ROUGHLY 35MPH. INK AND POSSIBLY MAF WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THIS CONVECTION. OT From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 20 16:35:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Oct 2005 11:35:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510201635.j9KGZA95026842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201634 MOZ000-ARZ000-201830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SRN MO THROUGH NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201634Z - 201830Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM SCNTRL AND SRN MO INTO NRN AR. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. WW MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATE THIS MORNING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER ERN KS WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WAS OVER W CNTRL MO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SWRN MO INTO WRN AR. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY. SURFACE HEATING...LOW LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...AND MID LEVEL COOLING/ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM SECTOR MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. ELEVATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS NRN AR AND SERN MO. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SRN MO AND NRN AR AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED THE MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EWD OVER THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED. UNIDIRECTIONAL 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. A SMALL WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS. HOWEVER...THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY CROSS THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 10/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 35679281 36959304 38519316 38819163 37848994 36389064 35529179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 20 20:43:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Oct 2005 15:43:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510202044.j9KKi4Q1025839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202042 MOZ000-ARZ000-202245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202042Z - 202245Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER SRN MO AND SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN CNTRL MO SWWD THROUGH SRN MO AND NWRN AR. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH E CNTRL MO AND SRN IL. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH MO PROMOTED THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AND THIS HAS LIMITED THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS MIXING OUT WITH DEEPENING CUMULUS IN S CNTRL MO ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE INCREASING SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER SRN MO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN MO. UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BUOYANCY. ..DIAL.. 10/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF... 38239110 37839066 37219072 36599135 36339225 36509292 37439237 38229202 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 21 18:21:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 13:21:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510211821.j9LILF0L019887@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211820 SCZ000-GAZ000-212015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL GA THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211820Z - 212015Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN GA INTO CNTRL/ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS FROM S CNTRL GA NEWD THROUGH CNTRL SC. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY COLD...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOREOVER...LOW LEVEL FORCING/CONVERGENCE APPEARS QUITE WEAK. DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING...A WEAK CAP AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH AL SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND DESTABILIZES. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. HOWEVER...THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR SMALL CLUSTERS. ..DIAL.. 10/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... 34117942 33387986 32658030 32258111 33098232 34528037 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 21 18:57:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 13:57:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510211857.j9LIvTqS015471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211856 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-212100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NERN AL AND NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211856Z - 212100Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITHIN A LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM ERN TN SSWWD TROUGH NERN AL. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 800 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING SWD WITH TIME. HOWEVER...FORCING DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT INTO AL. UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35 TO 45 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OVERALL THREAT AND PARTICULARLY THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..DIAL.. 10/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 36298301 35248442 34358496 33958545 34218604 34958557 35988516 36428462 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 22 00:38:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 19:38:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510220038.j9M0c9Ar026536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220036 NCZ000-SCZ000-220230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 220036Z - 220230Z INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SUGGESTS THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. UPCOMING 01Z OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT WW ISSUANCE STILL APPEARS UNNECESSARY AT THIS POINT. DESPITE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM PER 22/00Z RAOBS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/QG FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH NOW ABOUT TO CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WIND PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION FEATURE VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION INDICATED BY THE MODELS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS -- AND AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS GREATER. ..GOSS.. 10/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... 35917640 35267701 33787951 33288078 33478177 34438167 35587988 35947831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 22 07:33:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2005 02:33:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510220733.j9M7XO4V010423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220732 NCZ000-SCZ000-220900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220732Z - 220900Z MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC AS STORMS CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROBESON COUNTY TO NERN NC AT CURRITUCK COUNTY. WW NOT ANTICIPATED. 06Z RUC SOUNDING LOCATED NEAR THE SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN EAST CENTRAL NC INDICATED THAT THE INHIBITION AND OBSERVED INVERSION LAYER BETWEEN 700-750 MB ON THE 00Z MOREHEAD CITY SOUNDING HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY TO AID IN ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OVER THIS REGION AS OBSERVED AT 00Z. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS VA/NC AT THIS TIME COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO...BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL GIVEN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...WHILE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ACTIVITY MAY POTENTIALLY CONTINUE THROUGH 11-12Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST BY THAT TIME FRAME. ..PETERS.. 10/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 35897731 35897672 35717649 35247693 34877787 34497863 34337911 34527954 34987932 35207879 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 22 16:33:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2005 11:33:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510221633.j9MGXUlM001242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221632 NCZ000-VAZ000-221830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2352 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC THROUGH SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221632Z - 221830Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER PARTS OF ERN NC THROUGH SERN VA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING A WEDGE/RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SERN VA SWWD TO ERN NC NEAR ROCKY MOUNT NC THEN SWWD TO JUST E OF CHARLOTTE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM OFF THE SERN NC COAST NWWD TO JUST S OF GOLDSBORO. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THESE BOUNDARIES ACROSS SERN NC CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MIX OUT N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER E CNTRL THROUGH NERN NC AND SERN VA...AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION NWD INTO THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN WILMINGTON AND ROCKY MOUNT WHERE LIFT IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THIS FEATURE. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE APPROACHING STRONG 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 10/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34447762 34547826 35107851 35967759 37177650 36327574 35357572 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 23 09:14:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2005 04:14:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510230918.j9N9ItoN010234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230913 MEZ000-NHZ000-231145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0413 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET ACROSS NRN NH AND NWRN-CENTRAL ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 230913Z - 231145Z SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z AND CONTINUING FOR 2-4 HOURS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NH AND SPREADING INTO NWRN TO CENTRAL MAINE. VIGOROUS/NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY 18Z. TRACK OF SURFACE LOW FROM THE CURRENT LOCATION JUST SOUTH OF MVY/ACK AT 08Z NEWD TO BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA BY 15Z WILL MAINTAIN AN ELY LLJ ACROSS MAINE INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 90 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING ELY LLJ UP TO 50 KT WILL RESULT IN STRONG UPWARD MOTION FROM NRN NH TO NWRN-CENTRAL ME BY 12Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDING PER NAMKF ACROSS NERN NH AT 12Z SUGGESTED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY ABOVE 2000 FEET...GIVEN SATURATED PROFILE WITH STRONG UVVS IN DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE BETWEEN 500-560 MB. THIS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE FOR THE AREA OF CONCERN AND ALSO INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND -2 C BETWEEN 700-850 MB WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN AGGREGATE EFFECT ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM...THIS ISOTHERMAL LAYER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 2-3 HOURS OVER ANY ONE AREA FROM NRN NH TO NWRN/CENTRAL ME. ..PETERS.. 10/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45497068 45597025 45796963 46056899 45896887 45436918 45266951 45046988 44827023 44597039 44307061 44167089 43917117 43847145 43997169 44427157 44987131 45207112 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 23 19:00:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2005 14:00:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510231900.j9NJ0HiT015259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231859 FLZ000-232100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL KEYS AND SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231859Z - 232100Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND SRN FL. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE OVER THE FL KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING NWD THROUGH SRN FL THIS EVENING. A CONFERENCE CALL WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED BEFORE 20Z TO DISCUSS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INITIAL OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA ARE JUST W OF THE FL KEYS. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR DETAILS ON WILMA. THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NNEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIKELY AFFECTING THE WRN MOST KEYS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS IN PROGRESS OVER SRN FL AND BETWEEN THE RAINBANDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE AIDING DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG INDICATED ON THE 18Z KEY WEST SOUNDING. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS OVER THE KEYS ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE FALLS. VWP FROM KEY WEST SHOWS 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 160 M2/S2 AND 200 M2/S2 IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER BASED ON NWD MOVING STORMS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE KEYS AND SRN FL AS WILMA CONTINUES NEWD. ..DIAL.. 10/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 24618177 27058242 27088131 25638006 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 23 22:59:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2005 17:59:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510232259.j9NMx58A021658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232257 FLZ000-240100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 836... VALID 232257Z - 240100Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL. WILMA CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD TOWARD SWRN FL ATTM...WHILE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITHIN LOOSELY-DEFINED OUTER BANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROTATION. ALONG WITH NNWWD-MOVING CELLS MOVING ACROSS THE FL KEYS...A CLUSTER OF WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS IS ALSO INDICATED FROM THE TAMPA AREA EWD INTO OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES -- INVOF WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING W-E ACROSS THIS AREA. THREE TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST HOUR -- ONE IN HARDEE COUNTY AND TWO IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...AND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY -- WHERE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY EXISTS. EXPECT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FL WITH TIME...AS CENTER OF WILMA CONTINUES EASING CLOSER TO THE SWRN FL PENINSULA. ..GOSS.. 10/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX... 29048184 28038090 25217980 24258168 28178373 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 24 00:49:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2005 19:49:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510240049.j9O0noNv006267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240048 FLZ000-240245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 836... VALID 240048Z - 240245Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE WILMA. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR...WHICH WILL COVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL. A MORE WELL-DEFINED OUTER BAND HAS NOW SPREAD EWD INTO THE KEYS...WITH ROTATING STORMS NOW EVIDENT JUST OFF THE SWRN FL COAST. ADDITIONALLY...TORNADOES CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITHIN STORMS OCCURRING BETWEEN TBW AND MLB -- ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. EVENING EYW RAOB SHOWS VERY STRONG WIND FIELD...AND SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY OWING TO 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND INTENSIFYING WIND FIELD WITH THE APPROACH OF WILMA...EXPECT TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FL PENINSULA. WITH SEVERAL COUNTIES ALONG THE E COAST OF FL NOT IN A TORNADO WATCH ATTM...AND WITH THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..GOSS.. 10/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 29138070 27647993 25217980 24258168 28278306 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 24 03:14:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2005 22:14:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510240314.j9O3EmjO010008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240313 FLZ000-240515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837... VALID 240313Z - 240515Z TORNADO WATCH 837 CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS THROUGH 15Z. HURRICANE WILMA...CURRENTLY 170 MILES SW OF NAPLES FL PER 03Z NHC ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE A NEWD PATH TOWARD THE SWRN FL COAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE EXISTS IN VICINITY OF HURRICANE SPIRAL BANDS...AND ALSO IN PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES BASED ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES. AT KEY WEST...0-1KM SRH VALUES ARE AROUND 350 M2/S2 BASED ON EXTREME RADAR BASED CELL MOTIONS OF 185/60-65KT. EMBEDDED...FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITHIN OUTER BANDS OF WILMA WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AS BANDS GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF S-CENTRAL/SRN FL AND THE KEYS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHER REGION OF CONCERN IS ACROSS CENTRAL FL...WHERE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL TO JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG PERSIST ALONG THIS AXIS...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN BREVARD COUNTY. BULK OF CG LIGHTNING HAS BEEN WITH CELL MOVING NEWD OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND ALSO WITH LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OVER LAKE COUNTY AT 0310Z. CENTRAL FL STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS THEY TRACK SLOWLY NNEWD. THIS INCLUDES AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES WITH PERSISTENT LAKE COUNTY SUPERCELL DURING NEXT HOUR OR SO. INCREASED INTERACTION BETWEEN OUTER BANDS OF WILMA WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 10/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 24158134 26328234 28238300 28828177 29068107 28548034 25907942 25237924 24608005 24148128 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 24 08:18:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 03:18:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510240818.j9O8IaL0000620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240817 MEZ000-NHZ000-241015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837... VALID 240817Z - 241015Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS. 07Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE STALLED FRONT EXTENDED NE-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY TO SARASOTA COUNTY. DESPITE A NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL...INCREASING 0-3 KM SRH /250-300 M2/S2/ WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE WILMA IS CONTINUING TO RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THIS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADARS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL FL. STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN A MORE DEVIANT MOTION /160-190 DEGREES/ THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT AND LONG-LIVED STORM ROTATION. LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY EMBEDDED AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS AS WILMA APPROACHES SRN FL AND THE KEYS. ..PETERS.. 10/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45497068 45597025 45796963 46056899 45896887 45436918 45266951 45046988 44827023 44597039 44307061 44167089 43917117 43847145 43997169 44427157 44987131 45207112 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 24 08:29:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 03:29:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510240829.j9O8TY3l028224@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240828 COR FLZ000-241015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837... VALID 240828Z - 241015Z CORRECTED LAT/LON POINTS THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS. 07Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE STALLED FRONT EXTENDED NE-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY TO SARASOTA COUNTY. DESPITE A NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL...INCREASING 0-3 KM SRH /250-300 M2/S2/ WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE WILMA IS CONTINUING TO RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THIS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADARS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL FL. STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN A MORE DEVIANT MOTION /160-190 DEGREES/ THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT AND LONG-LIVED STORM ROTATION. LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY EMBEDDED AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS AS WILMA APPROACHES SRN FL AND THE KEYS. ..PETERS.. 10/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX... 28398315 28668253 29298125 29388100 29168068 25567938 24628034 24208144 24538216 25888216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 25 12:41:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2005 07:41:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510251241.j9PCfl9L021612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251240 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-251745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2361 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WV/SWRN PA TO PORTIONS OF WRN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 251240Z - 251745Z ...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND INCH PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN LOWER ELEVATIONS... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN WV. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NRN VA BY LATE AFTN...DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP ACROSS WRN PA INTO NRN WV...POSSIBLY ENHANCING SNOW RATES IN THIS ZONE. COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING /NOTED VIA COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN IR IMAGERY/ WILL FAVOR SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET THIS MORNING. RECENT RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS AT 1215Z EXTENDS FROM CKB/BFD/ELZ...BUT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY ELEVATION CHANGES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES VIA AGGREGATE EFFECTS. MODEL SOLNS DIFFER WITH THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE GFS BEING THE WARMEST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WHILE THE RUC IS THE COLDEST. TREND OF THE 06Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EARLIER RUNS...SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO RAIN AFTER 17-18Z. ..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 10/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... 42287838 40357993 39088095 38238067 38707950 40047826 41597767 42187751 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 25 16:59:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2005 11:59:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510251700.j9PH0U4k014688@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251659 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-252200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY / NRN VT / NRN NH / NRN ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 251659Z - 252200Z HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING ACROSS REGION. 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT VWPS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY IS LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG WAA IN THE 2-5 KM AGL LAYER...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION THUS FAR HAS BEEN MAINLY LIQUID EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NRN NH WHERE SOME SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 850-700 MB FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AS IT PIVOTS NWD/NWWD AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS OCCURS...BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND DEEPEN...WITH MORE INTENSE MESOSCALE...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DYNAMIC COOLING OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS AREA...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW INITIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT FROM THE ADIRONDACKS OF UPSTATE NY ACROSS THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD TEND TO DROP TO BELOW 1000 FT THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING AND WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING. ..MEAD.. 10/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY... 43537509 44597455 44897308 44957169 45667055 45926984 45256984 44217086 43757171 43307293 43067477 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 25 23:16:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2005 18:16:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510252317.j9PNH7xD020802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252316 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-260415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2363 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME / NRN NH / NRN VT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 252316Z - 260415Z HEAVY WET SNOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HRLY RATES NEAR 1 INCH. BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN ME INTO ERN NH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. HRLY LIQUID MEASUREMENTS ARE AVERAGING 0.10-0.15 IN/HR WHICH WILL EQUATE TO ROUGHLY 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 500 FEET...SUGGESTING HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE OVER NWRN ME AS WELL AS NRN NH WHERE HIGHER TERRAIN EXISTS. ..JEWELL.. 10/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 44866997 44487064 44387220 44927232 45577064 46966996 47526924 47336827 46736803 46076824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 27 18:26:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2005 13:26:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510271827.j9RIR2f4000889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271825 TXZ000-272100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271825Z - 272100Z BLEND OF MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER DISCUSSION AREA DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL POSSIBLE. WW NOT PLANNED ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 18Z SFC DATA AND VIS CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE MAIN FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT LINE FROM KENEDY/WILLACY COUNTIES NWWD TO NRN WEBB COUNTY. COMBINED SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ESTIMATED FROM ERN DUVAL COUNTY SWD INTO NRN HIDALGO COUNTY AND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE LEAVING THOSE COUNTIES. FRONT HAS STALLED AND MAY RETREAT N OVER WEBB COUNTY AND COT AREA...AND INTERSECTS OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE LINE OVER BROOKS COUNTY. LARGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ALONG AND N OF FRONT...BUT STRONGEST SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO ITS S. NET RESULT IS MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR SFC-BASED STORMS TO ROTATE BEING INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED FARTHER N TOWARD SAT WHERE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SLIGHTLY. ELY/ENELY FLOW NEAR FRONT RESULTS IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS MOVING SWD TOWARD WARMER AIR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. WEAK WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS ARE NOTED IN 850-700 MB LAYER OVER MUCH OF AREA. PEAK DIURNAL HEATING WILL OFFSET MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...AIDED BY HORIZONTALLY NARROW BUT VERTICALLY THICK SLAB OF MODIFIED RETURN FLOW AIR SAMPLED IN 12Z BRO RAOB. ..EDWARDS.. 10/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 25959713 25949720 25949724 25889729 25839736 25859741 25919754 26009764 26049790 26079818 26149838 26239851 26259867 26359877 26389909 26499912 26569916 26719920 26849928 26879933 27069946 27319950 27479948 27599951 27679970 27809986 28160006 28290028 28520036 28690047 28890060 29090067 29170078 29280082 29670134 29749915 29439815 28189778 27159787 26989690 26389645 25959648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 29 20:23:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Oct 2005 15:23:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510292023.j9TKNhvC023114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292022 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN/E-CENTRAL CO...SWRN KS...WRN/CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NERN NM...EXTREME NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292022Z - 292215Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH 22Z...INVOF SFC TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE FROM HARDING COUNTY NM EWD ACROSS WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLES INTO SWRN KS. MEANWHILE TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT NOW SURGING SWD ACROSS ERN CO. ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE STG GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH-BASED CU AND TCU DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND SFC TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS BACA COUNTY CO...SWRN KS AND OK PANHANDLE BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY FRONT. DRY DOWNSLOPING IS EVIDENT AT SFC BEHIND TROUGH...WHICH IS BECOMING EFFECTIVE DRYLINE WITH UP TO ABOUT 20 DEG ZONAL ISODROSOTHERMAL GRADIENT. EXPECT MOST VIGOROUS/DEEPEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND AS ACTIVITY TO ITS W CROSSES IT. PEAK SFC HEATING AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SFC DEW POINTS YIELD ABOUT 1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS...BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EXCEED 9 DEG C/KM. EFFECTIVE SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS SMALL -- GENERALLY UNDER 30 KT. THEREFORE DOMINANT MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESTRICT DURATION OF DISCRETE UPDRAFTS AND...BY EXTENSION...LIMIT PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL SIZE. COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 20Z FROM BETWEEN GLD-MCK SWWD TO KIOWA COUNTY THEN WNWWD TO BETWEEN COS-PUB. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EVIDENT ALONG THIS FRONT...WITH 0-3 KM SRH 200-250 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS APPEARS TO CONTAIN SOME SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...FRONT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...MOVING SWD 15-20 KT ACROSS ERN CO...WITH ANTECEDENT CAA LIMITING MLCAPES TO BELOW 200 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 10/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 35820390 36690296 37530219 38070201 38290236 38210324 38150427 38860416 39220378 39440222 39260144 38800061 37840052 36670150 35770325 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 05:49:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 00:49:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510310549.j9V5nuXl000451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310548 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-310745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2366 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST SUN OCT 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK AND NERN TX PANHANDLES THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310548Z - 310745Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OK NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER STORMS OVER OK MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH SRN KS AND INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LIFT WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM SWRN KS THROUGH THE ERN OK PANHANDLE. INTENSIFYING NLY JET OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWD SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...COINCIDENT WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION. THE THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS THE STRONGER CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW. FARTHER EAST...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND COOLING MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACCOMPANYING AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER OK WITHIN THE ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 10/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 34919615 34389815 35400065 36780155 38000020 37489829 36689552 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 16:56:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 11:56:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510311656.j9VGudER021844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311655 TXZ000-311800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CST MON OCT 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311655Z - 311800Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS ROOT INTO A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THREAT WILL THEN SPREAD EWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN TX THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON. STORMS ALONG SRN END OF EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE ARE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL TX LATE THIS MORNING. WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...EXPECT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE/CAP LAYER AROUND 800 MB WHICH WILL BE OVERCOME BY VERTICAL MOTION/COOLING NEAR 18Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT. THUS... ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED. ..EVANS.. 10/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29229679 28979784 29259838 29979859 30979824 32099679 32329555 31749494 30769495 29939566 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 19:54:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 14:54:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510311954.j9VJsep7004442@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311953 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-312130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2368 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN TX..SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 838... VALID 311953Z - 312130Z BROKEN SQUALL LINE CONTINUES MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 30 KT ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WITH A MORE EWD MOTION OVER NERN TX INTO FAR SWRN AR. WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN WW FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW. DESPITE THE MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY APPARENT INTO E-CENTRAL/NERN TX AND SRN AR...ONGOING/VIGOROUS CONVECTION INDICATES BUOYANCY FIELDS ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...ORIENTATION OF WLY MEAN WIND VECTORS AND MORE N-S ORIENTED BOW ECHOES INDICATE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH EWD MOVING STORMS ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE LINE. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 20 DEGREE SFC T-TD SPREADS/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NWRN LA/SRN AR. /REFERENCE WW 839 JUST ISSUED FOR THIS ACTIVITY./ LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE AIR MASS IS NOW WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF ADVANCING SQUALL LINE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG INTO MUCH OF ERN TX. PAT PROFILER ALSO INDICATES MODEST SHEAR WITHIN WARM SECTOR /0-3 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KT/. SEWD MOTION OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDERCUTTING STORMS DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL AND SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN WLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY LIMIT SUSTAINED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALONG SWRN PORTION OF SQUALL LINE...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CORES. IN ADDITION...BROAD REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAKENING CINH IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD MOIST CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE ATTM...AND THESE STORMS MAY SUSTAIN A HAIL/WIND THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS.. 10/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 28379885 30989876 33379406 33949391 33929174 31449211 30729423 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 20:55:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 15:55:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510312055.j9VKtanD024365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312054 LAZ000-TXZ000-312200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2369 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312054Z - 312200Z NEW WW WILL SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SERN TX/SWRN LA. THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITHIN AND AHEAD OF ONGOING SQUALL LINE CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF SABINE RIVER ATTM...AND QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT EWD EXTENT OF GREATER INSTABILITY INTO WRN LA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 60+ SFC DEW POINTS...AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY...WILL DEVELOP INTO SWRN LA BY 03Z. STORMS WILL ALSO BE SUSTAINED ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST THIS EVENING. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO SWRN LA. ..EVANS.. 10/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... 31369412 31359283 29929282 29419407 28279665 29269709 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 23:11:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 18:11:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510312311.j9VNBOjr022728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312310 LAZ000-010045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA THROUGH EXTREME SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 839... VALID 312310Z - 010045Z THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS SQUALL LINE CONTINUES EWD THROUGH NRN LA. HOWEVER...THIS PART OF THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES INTO NERN LA. STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF OR WEAKEN WITHIN WW 839 BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 02Z. EARLY THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL LA SWWD THROUGH SERN TX MOVING SEWD AT 30 KT. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE TX COAST AND INTO SWRN LA WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS. FARTHER N ACROSS NRN LA...THE LINE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AS IT MOVES EWD. MOREOVER...THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. GIVEN THESE LIMITING FACTORS...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH NRN LA. ..DIAL.. 10/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 32529163 31439210 31409354 32809212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 23:27:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 18:27:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200510312327.j9VNRMJS032704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312326 TXZ000-010100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 312326Z - 010100Z STORMS ARE GAINING STRENGTH AS NOTED BY INCREASING LIGHTNING STRIKES/RECENT RADAR DATA ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX...AND THERE EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER. AIRMASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 23Z SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1400 J/KG...SIMILAR TO SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUC. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR IS AOA 50 KT...WITH LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM CORPUS CHRISTI INDICATING A VEERING PROFILE FROM LOW LEVELS. MAIN THREAT SEEMS TO EXIST FROM ALI TO BRO. AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A STORM COULD FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENT IN AREA. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL/ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW AND OVERTURNS THE AIRMASS. ..TAYLOR.. 10/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 25889722 26489920 28489883 28929771 27269677 26319677 WWWW