[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 300120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300120 
VAZ000-MDZ000-300215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND SRN MD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 887...

VALID 300120Z - 300215Z

DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT HOUR...ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN VA AND SRN MD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS MOVING
RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH WRN VA. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS WEST OF A DCA-RDU
LINE. A MESOLOW DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE FRONT AND HAS SINCE
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO SERN PA. ANOTHER MESOLOW APPEARS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AND WAS LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SW OF DCA.
AS THIS SYSTEM RACES NEWD AT 40 KT...A BOW ECHO EXTENDING SWD FROM
THIS LOW WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.  THE
EVENING DCA SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE LIFTED PARCELS MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT THE WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
FOR THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS TO CONTINUE REACHING THE SURFACE.

..IMY.. 11/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

37427729 37817721 38397733 38627702 38387652 37417646
37167726 

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