[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Nov 28 19:02:34 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 281859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281859 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-290000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEB/ERN SD/SE ND INTO WRN/NRN MN

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 281859Z - 290000Z

HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM NE NEB/ERN SD INTO SE ND AND PORTIONS OF WCNTRL MN.
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND ICE
ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/NCNTRL MN.

ON N/NW PERIPHERY OF OCCLUDING IA CYCLONE /983 MB AT 18Z/...SW-NE
ORIENTED AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL INTENSIFY/SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN SD INTO WCNTRL MN...ORIENTED PARALLEL TO
650MB-850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND AT TERMINUS OF TROWAL PER 12Z
MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/CROSS SECTIONS. AMPLE UVVS THROUGH FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC LAYER WILL PROMOTE SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER.
COINCIDENT WITH THIS SNOWFALL...VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER CONDITIONS...WITH 50-70 KT WINDS COMMON IN
THE LOWEST FEW KM OF REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VAD DATA.

ACROSS WCNTRL/NCNTRL MN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS
FROM INL/ABR...15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST ABOVE SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. AFFIRMED BY 09Z SREF
PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS...THIS SUGGESTS POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/NCNTRL
MN...INCLUDING A DETROIT LAKES-BEMIDJI-INTERNATIONAL FALLS
CORRIDOR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE ICE ACCUMULATION.

..GUYER.. 11/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

48299238 46989375 44599625 43129741 42439797 42379973
43210056 44130010 44499993 46429780 48009577 48769433 

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