[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Nov 28 17:21:03 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 281718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281718 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-281845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INDIANA/WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281718Z - 281845Z

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO OR
TWO/ MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN INDIANA INTO OH.
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A
WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD AT AROUND 30
KTS ACROSS INDIANA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY EXISTS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH
BREAKS IN CLOUDS NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY ACROSS KY/WRN OH MAY ALLOW FOR
MODEST DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE VERY
STRONG...WITH 50+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PER 12Z
RAOBS/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD DATA. ACCORDINGLY...PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
LINE-EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT
ATTRIBUTABLE TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...WITH
EXTREMELY HIGH 0-1 KM SRH OF 500+ M2/S2 PER 12Z ILN RAOB/LATEST VAD
DATA.

..GUYER.. 11/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

41648518 41408303 40148287 39198343 39008455 39098590
40428580 

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