[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Nov 28 15:31:44 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 281529
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281529 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-281730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS INTO WRN AND CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281529Z - 281730Z

WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE
HOUR.

SQUALL LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NERN MS
SSWWD INTO SERN LA.  HEATING/WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S.  ADJUSTING THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM BAX
WITH THESE NUMBERS GIVES SBCAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 2000 J/KG
INDICATING THE RAPID DESTABILIZATION.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STRONG WIND PROFILES PRESENT ACROSS THE SERN
STATES FROM CENTRAL MS THRU AL WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 50-65 KT
ACROSS THE AREA.  CONSIDERING THIS...THE INSTABILITY AND THAT 0-1KM
SHEAR IS 300-350 M2/S2...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
EITHER WITH DISCRETE CELLS FORMING WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE LINE OR WITH CELLS EMBEDDED AND INCREASING WITHIN THE
LINE.

..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...

30288934 30628975 31108977 32198923 33058878 33778813
34298773 34348693 33828643 33208648 32078639 31438674
30818706 30398778 30218900 

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