[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Nov 28 07:33:43 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 280731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280731 
FLZ000-ALZ000-280900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 280731Z - 280900Z

TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO IF CONVECTION CONTINUES INTENSIFYING.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN THE LAST HOUR ALONG AND JUST OFF THE
SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST WITHIN BROAD REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL WAA.  AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 70S. 
GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT DIMINISHING
CAP...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THIS
GENERAL REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  BOTH RUC AND NAM
GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS MID
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.  IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THEREFORE...WW BEING CONSIDERED
ATTM.

..EVANS.. 11/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

30288821 31938846 31868518 29768506 

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