[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Nov 28 02:47:12 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 280245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280244 
KYZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0844 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN AR...NWRN LA...W
TN...WRN KY AND NWRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 876...879...

VALID 280244Z - 280415Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AR...NERN TX AND NWRN LA
WITH THE BEST THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AR. STORMS MAY
BEGIN TO AFFECT WRN TN...WRN KY AND NWRN MS LATER THIS EVENING...
AND THESE AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AR MOVING EAST AT
AROUND 20 KT. MANY STORMS WITHIN THE LINE HAVE CONSOLIDATED WITH
LESS DISCRETE STRUCTURES THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS STILL PERSIST. ACTIVITY EXISTS WITHIN AN AXIS OF
MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE VERY LARGE WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES
AROUND 400 M2/S2. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE. FARTHER EAST...NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS ERN AR WITHIN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE
70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER IN THIS
REGION...AND VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING WAS INDICATED. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THETA-E
ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...THESE STORMS MAY TAKE LONGER TO BECOME
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
INTENSIFY LATER THIS EVENING.

..DIAL.. 11/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

34069064 36948910 36818803 35418854 34158939 

WWWW