[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 272308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272307 
ARZ000-TXZ000-280100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 876...

VALID 272307Z - 280100Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MID EVENING. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM W CNTRL
THROUGH CNTRL AR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS.

EARLY THIS EVENING A LINE OF DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EXTENDS
FROM POPE COUNTY SWWD THROUGH HOWARD COUNTY IN W CNTRL AR. THE LINE
IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE NE AT 30 TO 35 KT.
OTHER SEVERE STORMS EXTEND SWWD INTO NERN TX. THE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL
JET IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL
AR. THIS REGION IS WITHIN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
THAT IS ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AS SUPERCELLS MOVE THROUGH W CNTRL AND CNTRL AR NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 11/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

33539432 34369422 36059285 35929193 34489237 33349353 

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