[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Nov 27 21:31:40 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 272129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272129 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-272330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NEB/SW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272129Z - 272330Z

AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP NWD INTO FAR SE NEB/SW
IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR LARGE
HAIL/ISOLD TORNADOES AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS.

ON FRINGE OF SURGING DRY SLOT...BROKEN BAND OF MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH
HISTORY OF TORNADOES/ISOLD LARGE HAIL CONTINUES TO SPREAD E/NE
ACROSS ERN KS AT MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
RATHER MARGINAL ACROSS FAR SE NEB/SW IA...ESPECIALLY THE CASE WITH
NWD EXTENT...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OWING TO DRY SLOT MAY ALLOW
AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT TO BREACH EXISTING KS/MO TORNADO
WATCHES INTO FAR SE NEB/SW IA.

LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
AMPLE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...WITH ISOLD TORNADO POSSIBILITIES
ATTRIBUTABLE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
QUESTIONABLE AIRMASS QUALITY WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE NECESSITY FOR A
WATCH NWD INTO FAR SE NEB/SW IA AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

..GUYER.. 11/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

40099652 40819661 41619564 41539421 41149308 40699305
40659515 40109573 

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