[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 260450
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260450 
TXZ000-260645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 260450Z - 260645Z

ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SCNTRL TX.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN
MEXICO WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER IN SOUTHWEST TX. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD INTO SCNTRL
TX...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AIDING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.

AT THE SFC...ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM
NEAR DEL RIO EXTENDING EWD TO THE HOUSTON AREA. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 60S F WHICH IS
HELPING TO RAISE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...88D VAD WIND PROFILES AROUND SAN
ANTONIO SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. INCREASING SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH MOST OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELL. THE STRONGEST CELLS
MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

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30079814 29689730 28279744 27419774 

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