[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Nov 24 12:39:46 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 241237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241237 
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-241830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE AND NCNTRL OH NEAR LAKE ERIE...NW INTO NCNTRL
PA...WRN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 241237Z - 241830Z

...SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN OH NEAR LAKE
ERIE INTO WRN NY...

LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE INCREASED ALONG SRN LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME
WRN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO NW
PA AND WRN NY. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
RESULTING FROM WARM LAKE ERIE TEMPS /7-9 DEGREES C/ PER LATEST BUOY
OBSERVATIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPS AT 850MB AND ABOVE. VAD WIND DATA
FROM CLEVELAND SHOW A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE...AND AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY WITH TIME...FETCH WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ELONGATED CONVECTIVE PLUMES
TO DEVELOP WITH SNOW RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE MOST
FAVORED AREAS FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE FROM THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA EWD
ACROSS LAKE/ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN ADDITION TO
NEIGHBORING COUNTIES INLAND. PRESENCE OF DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOWBANDS. HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS WILL ALSO FORM ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER
TODAY.

..TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

40558208 41548220 42258093 43307876 43247760 41907750
40887829 

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