[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Nov 16 02:08:47 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 160206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160206 
OHZ000-WVZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-160330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...WRN/CNTRL OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870...

VALID 160206Z - 160330Z

GRADUAL DECLINE IN STORM INTENSITY NOTED OVER PARTS OF OH/MI LATE
THIS EVENING. SOME PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 870 MAY BE CLEARED WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR.

LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY ACROSS NRN/WRN SECTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 870. HOWEVER...
DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA REMAIN FORMIDABLE. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA DEPICTED
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN MI EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE. DIAGNOSTIC
PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR DISCRETE CELLS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
WITHIN LARGER RAIN AREA. WITH COLD FRONT AND STRONG LARGE SCALE
ASCENT STILL MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...DAMAGING
WIND/TORNADO THREAT PERSISTS AT PRESENT.

..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...

41358456 42878415 42868272 41678278 41958156 40348209
39758216 39278175 38308252 38308400 39618385 40748373 

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