[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Nov 16 00:58:21 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 160056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160056 
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-160700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA/MUCH OF WI/UPPER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 160056Z - 160700Z

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TONIGHT FROM SW AND CNTRL WI
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...

SFC LOW NOW DOWN TO 995MB NEAR CHICAGO WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD STURGEON BAY BY 06Z WITH STRONGEST
PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSED ACROSS ERN WI/WRN LAKE MI. ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL JET MAX WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 120 KT OVERNIGHT. LATEST
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP FROM ERN
IA/SWRN WI INTO NERN WI AND UPPER MI. PRECIPITATION HAS RECENTLY
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW ACROSS CNTRL WI PER LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS.
THE ETA FORECAST 2M TEMPS ARE LIKELY TOO WARM AS COMPARED TO LATEST
OBSERVED TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DYNAMIC COOLING AND LOWERING SFC
WET BULB TEMPS WILL FAVOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

ETA/GFS SOLNS INDICATE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOW TRACK...FROM SWRN WI INTO UPPER MI.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT ONE OR MORE BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
DEEP ASCENT OCCURRING FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVIER SNOW SPREADING
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA AFTER 06Z. THIS FIRST MAJOR SNOW OF THE
YEAR WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS...WHICH WILL CAUSE
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF NEW SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY.

..TAYLOR.. 11/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

47799009 46539219 43419261 42929214 42628990 43118912
44898764 46238676 46868672 47468746 

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