[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Nov 15 08:59:32 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 150858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150857 
MOZ000-KSZ000-151000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SE KS...W CENTRAL AND SW MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 150857Z - 151000Z

SEVERE TSTM THREAT...MAINLY LIMITED TO HAIL...WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO.  THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH WILL BE DISCUSSED WITH LOCAL WFO/S SHORTLY.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS E/SE KS INTO
W/SW MO IN THE REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/STRONG ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE SURFACE LOW IN NRN OK AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER
WRN KS.  A 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ IS FEEDING MOISTURE N OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT...AND 06Z OBS PLUS RECENT RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MUCAPE OF 1000-150O J/KG OVERSPREADING SE KS/SW MO THIS MORNING. 
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL THREAT...AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 30-60 MIN.

..THOMPSON.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

38749370 38329337 37449349 37259392 37159497 37219585
37299684 37749721 38289740 38639717 38809618 38859447 

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