[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 150508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150508 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-150645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS AND SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 150508Z - 150645Z

CLUSTER OF INTENSE TSTMS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NERN OK MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS AND SWRN MO INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE AREA AS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG A VARIETY OF SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY FROM SRN KS INTO SWRN MO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY ONGOING CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD FROM NERN OK ATTM. RAPID RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES ALOFT DUE TO PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR
POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

36999493 37059701 38419697 38409274 37099191 36969384 

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