[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Nov 12 22:06:25 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 122205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122204 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN TX...AND SWRN MO/NWRN AR

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 122204Z - 130030Z

VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE
REGION WHICH MAY AID IN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. ATTM...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW
THROUGH 00Z.

SAT IMAGERY AND VISUAL INSPECTION INDICATES MODERATE CU OVER SERN
OK...NEAR ADA. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE REMAINS MODEST ALONG
DRYLINE OVER FAR NERN OK. GIVEN ONLY A FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING AND
WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO DRYLINE FCST TO BECOME
STATIONARY...DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IN THESE AREAS AND ALONG THE REST
OF THE DRYLINE REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...A
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH NOTED ON WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00-03Z. DESPITE LOW
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF A 850 MB JET OVER MO...SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL WAA/DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MAY ENSUE. IF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH...SVR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE STATIONARY DRYLINE OVER ERN
OK/NERN TX BETWEEN 00-03Z.

..CROSBIE.. 11/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...

36969540 35809623 34339700 33279748 32849723 32929619
35249482 36709412 36969448 

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