[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Nov 12 19:55:51 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 121954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121954 
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-122230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR...SWD INTO
NCENTRAL/NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121954Z - 122230Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z OVER
PORTIONS OF ERN OK SWWD INTO NCENTRAL/NERN TX. A WW IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY 21Z.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM OSAGE COUNTY
OK SWWD INTO NCENTRAL TX /JUST TO THE WEST OF THE DFW METRO AREA/.
EWD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GREATEST OVER
NERN/ECENTRAL OK /AROUND 25 KTS/...CLOSEST TO LOW TO MID LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM. FURTHER SOUTH OVER SERN OK AND NCENTRAL TX...THE DRYLINE
MOVEMENT WILL NOT BE MORE THAN 10 KTS. THE EXPECTED DRYLINE POSITION
BY 22Z THEREFORE WILL BE FROM NEAR THE TULSA METRO AREA SWWD TO THE
DFW METRO AREA. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000
J/KG AND LITTLE CINH REMAINING. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE ALONG WITH CONTINUED WAA AND REMOVAL OF 850-700 MB CAP LAYER
WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS NEARLY ORTHOGONAL
TO THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN/ECENTRAL OK WILL SUPPORT 40-50
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORING DISCRETE SUPERCELL TSTMS. IN
ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE GREATER OVER
NERN OK INTO NWRN AR/FAR SWRN MO...CLOSEST TO LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND
CONSEQUENT STRONGEST /20-25 KTS OF 0-1 KM/ LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN
ADDITION...LOW LCL/S WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THIS AREA.

FURTHER SOUTH OVER SERN OK...NERN/NCENTRAL TX...SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID
LEVEL WINDS /30-40 KTS/ WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO MORE OF A
MULTICELLULAR TYPE. HOWEVER...EVEN OVER THIS AREA...RELATIVELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON SRN FRINGE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...WILL
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. UNLIKE
FURTHER NORTH...WEAKER LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT OVER NERN/NCENTRAL TX.

..CROSBIE.. 11/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

36989563 36949609 34959698 33929741 32759785 32569712
32589500 34849435 36379397 36939384 

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