[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Nov 9 01:45:45 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 090144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090144 
WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-090315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH...SERN LOWER MI...LM...EXTREME SRN LH.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 090144Z - 090315Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FROM W-E ACROSS AREA E
OF CURRENT WWS 852-853.  REGION FROM SERN LOWER MI ACROSS MUCH OF OH
IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR HTS NWWD ACROSS
SWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL OH...EMANATING FROM MCS NOW DISSIPATING
OVER NRN VA AND SRN WV.  WRN PORTION OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS ZONE OF SFC WARM FRONTOGENESIS NEAR DAY...LATTER FRONT
EXTENDING WNWWD ACROSS WW 852. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT --
MAINLY IN FORM OF LOW LEVEL WAA...WILL COMBINE WITH MOIST ADVECTION
TO SUPPORT BOTH CONVECTION MOVING INTO AREA FROM WWS AND ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT STORM ROTATION. 
NEAR WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
BOUNDARY LAYER -- COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW...YIELDS 0-1
KM SRH 150-250 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEARS 50-60 KT.  STORM
INFLOW LAYER WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT FROM
BOUNDARIES.

..EDWARDS.. 11/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

38958224 39698479 40878482 40808419 42968399 43298231
42678247 42308299 41798310 42148104 40268061 

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