[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 061156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061156 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-061300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MID-OH VLY SWWD INTO ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061156Z - 061300Z

BOUNDARY LAYER /CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID-50S/ HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS FROM THE MID-OH VLY SWD INTO ERN TN.  STRONGEST PORTION
OF THE LLJ /MASS CONVERGENCE/ WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD INTO THE OH
VLY REGION AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
GRTLKS REGION. 

ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN CONTINUE TO BE
MAINTAINED WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...MEAN WIND
VECTORS ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE LINE AND MODEST INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN
FAVORABLE FOR MIXED MODES CONSISTING OF LINE SEGMENTS AND DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL/WRN KY/TN.  

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE LLJ AXIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT NWD WITH
TIME WITH AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORTING TSTMS FROM THE MID-OH
VLY SWD INTO ERN TN.  STRONGEST UVV SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS AREAS N
OF THE OH RVR AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ISOLD TORNADOES WILL EXIST THERE.  BUT...OVERALL STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AS FAR S AS
ERN TN.  NEW WW WILL POSSIBLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-OH
VLY SWD INTO ERN TN.

..RACY.. 11/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...

36208472 39558210 39468096 37048290 36078371 

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