From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 01:15:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 20:15:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511010115.jA11FSHm024978@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010114 LAZ000-TXZ000-010245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS COASTAL AREA THROUGH SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 840... VALID 010114Z - 010245Z PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FROM S TX NEWD ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH A MORE LIMITED THREAT INTO SRN LA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AND ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED E OF WW 840. SQUALL LINE FROM CNTRL LA SWWD ALONG THE TX COAST CONTINUES EWD AT AROUND 30 KT. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE TX COAST. WITH STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING REMAINING IN COOL SECTOR...THE RESPONSE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY A MODEST SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR. MOREOVER...WITH ONLY UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS RESIDING OVER THE NRN GULF...FURTHER NWD ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THIS SUGGESTS THE LA PORTION OF SQUALL LINE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. ..DIAL.. 11/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...CRP... 27599743 28739524 30029330 31029199 30029137 28979284 27049705 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 18:21:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 13:21:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511051821.jA5ILoYr002475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051821 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051821 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-052045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051821Z - 052045Z TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN A BAND FROM NRN MO/SRN IA NEWD ACROSS NRN IL/SRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS A LEAD IMPULSE NOW MOVING TOWARD NWRN MO FROM NERN KS ENHANCES DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM IRK TO GBG TO MDW. WHILE THIS LEAD IMPULSE IS WELL AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SUFFICIENT LIFT AND ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST DVN SOUNDING AT 18Z FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR BOTH INCREASING SINCE 12Z. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A GOOD PROBABILITY OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS INCREASING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH 21Z. ..CARBIN.. 11/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 41708759 41098829 40399084 40059195 40179307 41189256 41869179 42239133 42649052 42878970 43058904 42828761 42488689 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 21:21:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 16:21:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511052120.jA5LKr6b010976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052119 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2374 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...WRN IL...EXTREME SERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052119Z - 052315Z A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF MO AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN IA AND WRN IL. LATEST VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL AND PROFILER DATA WERE ALL DEPICTING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING EAST ACROSS KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LARGE ASCENT WAS INDUCING LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER WRN MO WHERE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED ON A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE LOW TO NRN IL. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER... RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SO FAR INHIBITED SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CAPPING INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DUE TO HEATING/MIXING AND MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR SURFACE LOW AND FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE DEEP CONVECTION FORMS AND TAKES ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS ORGANIZED STORMS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FROM INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT GIVEN FORECAST 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 FOR EWD TRACKING CELLS. RAPID EWD ADVANCE OF LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OVERTAKE CELLULAR STORMS WITH ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES...AFTER DARK. WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 11/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 39409395 39879301 40459222 41188944 40488896 38709011 37579284 37749422 38869437 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 22:57:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 17:57:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511052257.jA5Mv2iE009543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052255 MOZ000-ARZ000-060030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052255Z - 060030Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER SRN MO THIS EVENING...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO NRN AR. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL. ALTHOUGH 18Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWED PRONOUNCED CAP...STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH COLD FRONT AND COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. GIVEN STRONG LINEAR FORCING...A SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE...ALTHOUGH VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AHEAD OF THIS LINE SUGGEST EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES POSSIBLE AS WELL. THUS...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 11/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37809377 37769029 35679074 35689424 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 00:38:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 19:38:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060038.jA60c33d008467@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060036 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-060200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2376 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL/ERN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 841... VALID 060036Z - 060200Z TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH AROUND 2Z ACROSS WW AREA...BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...MAINTAINING FULL-SPECTRUM SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL THEN. THEREAFTER...COMBINATION OF MAINLY LINEAR MODE AND DIABATIC SFC COOLING/STABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR INFLOW REGION WILL REDUCE TORNADO THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL STILL WILL BE LIKELY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE EVIDENT AS OF 0030Z...INCLUDING ANOMALOUSLY INTENSE LEFT-SPLITTER MOVING NNEWD ACROSS MONROE/SERN SHELBY COUNTY WHICH MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL OVER MARION/LEWIS/CLARK COUNTIES MO. ACTIVITY SW JEF AS OF 0030Z MAY DEVELOP INTO BOW ECHO AND TRACK ENEWD TOWARD STL AREA WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. REPORT OF 70 KT GUST WAS RECEIVED FROM BOONE COUNTY MO AT 2350Z ALONG WITH 1.75 INCH HAIL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED LOW OVER CENTRAL/NERN MO NEAR COU...WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD INTO NRN IL OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND BACKING OF SFC WINDS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NERN MO AND NRN IL...E AND NE OF PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK AND INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NWRN IL. MEANWHILE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN MO. WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND FRONT...AS COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND WEAKENING LIFT REDUCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE FORMING THROUGH 03Z...AS ONGOING ACTIVITY COALESCES OVER WW AREA AND BACKBUILDS SWWD THROUGH WW 842. LINEAR MODE WILL BE SUPPORTED MORE WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND INFLOW ABOVE SFC IS ALIGNED MORE PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY. ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 37969336 40609140 41059009 41078926 40838880 40488857 40258864 39508948 38458982 37959054 37789122 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 01:27:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 20:27:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060127.jA61Rbq9015594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060125 MOZ000-ARZ000-060300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN AR AND SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 842... VALID 060125Z - 060300Z IR AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE BACKBUILDING TOWARD AREA JUST N FSM...WITH DEEPENING TOWERS E OF LINE IN WARM SECTOR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. TSTM BAND WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS OZARKS TOWARD N-CENTRAL AR AND S-CENTRAL/SERN MO. ANIMATION OF 05/18Z-06/00Z SGF RAOBS SHOWS CLASSIC PROFILE FOR ONSET OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT REMOVING LARGE AMOUNTS OF CINH...AND THIS PROCESS SHOULD EXTEND SWD AT LEAST INTO EXTREME NRN AR. PRIND SRN END OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEAR I-40 OVER NWRN AR...AS STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE IN MO LIFTS NEWD AHEAD OF INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING TURNS NEWD AWAY FROM REGION. 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL TRANSITION TO SIMILAR VALUES OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AS DIABATICALLY DRIVEN DECOUPLING OCCURS IN INFLOW SECTOR...ACCOMPANIED BY AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35559425 37319329 37819240 37799137 37759090 37569065 36769105 36509115 35439143 35499207 35369285 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 02:54:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 21:54:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060254.jA62sBtY016486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060253 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-060400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IL...WRN INDIANA...WRN KY...SE MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 841... VALID 060253Z - 060400Z WW/S 841 AND 842 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 0330Z. SQUALL LINE NEAR/E OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN IL/MO/NW AR WILL MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL IL AND SE MO/NE AR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS NRN IL...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THOUGH THE WARM SECTOR IS GRADUALLY STABILIZING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LOW-MID LEVEL SLY/SWLY FLOW OF 45-60 KT WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..THOMPSON.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF... 37278856 36618930 35429057 35489198 35989237 38339075 39899002 41248935 41558847 41658752 41468699 40398695 39468720 38278780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 05:58:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 00:58:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060557.jA65vtQr010027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060557 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN AR...EXTREME SERN MO...EXTREME WRN KY...EXTREME WRN TN...S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL/NRN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 843... VALID 060557Z - 060730Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING EWD 30-40 KT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT PAST E EDGE OF WW...AREAS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA SWWD TO WRN TN WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WIND WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN AR...SERN MO..IL AND NWRN INDIANA. PRESENT SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR-SFC STABILITY AND STRENGTH OF LOW/MIDLEVEL JETS INDICATE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO BRING SEVERE WIND TO SFC WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS -- ESPECIALLY AROUND BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL ALSO LINGERS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF SMALL MLCINH REMAIN OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO. THESE CINH WEAKNESSES SHOULD FILL WHILE DIABATIC SFC COOLING CONTINUES IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS. AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME...GRADUALLY REDUCING PROBABILITY OF SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD ACROSS INDIANA...WRN TN AND WRN KY. ACTIVITY MOVING EWD FROM CENTRAL AR SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS EWD TOWARD MS RIVER. ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK... 35039194 36259069 37688958 38288979 38928876 40638791 41538753 41298552 40718487 39308560 36498839 35079028 34869157 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 07:39:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 02:39:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060739.jA67d0p1022811@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060738 MIZ000-060915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060738Z - 060915Z PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS LWR MI SINCE 04Z AS UPSTREAM POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SURGED N INTO CNTRL LWR MI WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-50S. NRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS SWRN LWR MI HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING PER COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR SATL. AS THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE ROTATES NEWD AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY ACROSS LWR MI...TSTMS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED OR COULD INCREASE AS THEY MOVE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LWR MI. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THESE TSTMS MAY TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. ..RACY.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41818600 42878601 43588280 42808244 41758278 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 08:14:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 03:14:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060814.jA68EjOZ011535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060813 KYZ000-INZ000-060945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2381 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060813Z - 060945Z SRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE HAS EVOLVED INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THIS MORNING. THE 2-6KM MEAN WIND HAS LARGELY REMAINED NORMAL TO THE LINE THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...SUGGESTING A MIXED-MODE OF LINE SEGMENTS AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS. VWP/S SUGGEST VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OWING TO A STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LWR GRTLKS REGION. 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 340 M2/S2 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT LOUISVILLE. GIVEN NEARLY 70 KTS OF H85-H7 FLOW...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SUSTAINED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SRN IND AND WRN KY. OTHERWISE...A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH HAIL. PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 844 MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY. ..RACY.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... 38448709 39158615 39058519 38638476 37788558 36868631 36688725 36798807 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 09:41:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 04:41:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060941.jA69fddW001285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060940 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-061115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2382 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OH/TN VLYS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060940Z - 061115Z STRONG NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING ACROSS IL WITH STRONGEST BELT OF ASCENT SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN OH AND SERN LWR MI ATTM. STRONGEST LLJ AXIS WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT NWD FROM THE TN VLY TO THE OH VLY WITH 50-70 KTS IN THE H85-H7 LAYER. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS COMPENSATING FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN LWR MI SWD INTO WRN OH TO SUPPORT A LINEAR MCS. FARTHER S...INSTABILITY WAS STRONGER OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER/MOISTER BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...DESPITE WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE...A MIXED MODE OF LINE SEGMENTS/DISCRETE CELLS ARE BEING FAVORED. GIVEN SUCH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAINTAINED JUST AHEAD OF THE TSTMS THROUGH THE MORNING FROM CNTRL OH SWWD ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN. OVERALL STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL OH SWD INTO MIDDLE TN...CONTINUING A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT EAST OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH 845. AS SUCH...NEW WW/S WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER PARTS OF THE OH/TN VLYS. ..RACY.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... 35878712 41668234 41678075 36788413 35838511 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 11:21:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 06:21:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061121.jA6BLBhC013073@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061120 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-061215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN OH...SERN IND...WRN KY...WRN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 845... VALID 061120Z - 061215Z TORNADO WATCH 845 EXPIRES AT 12Z. ANALYSIS PLACES A 994 MB LOW OVER SRN LK MI AT 11Z WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NRN LWR MI. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NEWD THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE...WITH SEVERAL SEGMENTED CONVERGENCE ZONES ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VLY SWD INTO THE TN VLY. THE PRIMARY BAND OF TSTMS HAS MOVED EWD INTO WW/S 847/848. BUT...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ACROSS WCNTRL OH SWWD INTO SRN IND ALONG ONE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONES. A NARROW TONGUE OF LOW-MID 60S DEW POINTS CONTINUES JUST AHEAD OF THIS NEW TSTM LINE SEGMENT AND COULD SIGNAL A RENEWED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OH SWWD INTO NWRN KY...OR ALONG ERN EDGE OF THE EXPIRING WT 845. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLD TORNADO AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NEW WW/S DOWNSTREAM SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. FARTHER S...ACROSS WRN TN...GIVEN THAT MAIN MASS CONVERGENCE/LLJ IS TRANSLATING NWD...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG... 35048924 37958728 38918693 39888606 40638382 39888396 39038422 38468556 35048827 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 11:57:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 06:57:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061157.jA6BvPwl029986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061156 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-061300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MID-OH VLY SWWD INTO ERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061156Z - 061300Z BOUNDARY LAYER /CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID-50S/ HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE MID-OH VLY SWD INTO ERN TN. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ /MASS CONVERGENCE/ WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD INTO THE OH VLY REGION AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION. ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...MEAN WIND VECTORS ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE LINE AND MODEST INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR MIXED MODES CONSISTING OF LINE SEGMENTS AND DISCRETE SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL/WRN KY/TN. THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE LLJ AXIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT NWD WITH TIME WITH AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORTING TSTMS FROM THE MID-OH VLY SWD INTO ERN TN. STRONGEST UVV SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS AREAS N OF THE OH RVR AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLD TORNADOES WILL EXIST THERE. BUT...OVERALL STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AS FAR S AS ERN TN. NEW WW WILL POSSIBLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-OH VLY SWD INTO ERN TN. ..RACY.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN... 36208472 39558210 39468096 37048290 36078371 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 13:46:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 08:46:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061345.jA6Djsu7004304@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061344 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-061515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2385 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MID-UPPER OH VLY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061344Z - 061515Z THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER OH VLY REGION WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LWR OH VLY/TN VLY OVERNIGHT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT TSTMS WILL INTENSIFY/DEVELOP AGAIN BY MID-MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OH. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. AS A RESULT...DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE LWR GRTLKS AND UPPER OH VLY BY EARLY AFTN. ..RACY.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 38728474 42128221 42177974 40348113 38618248 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 15:13:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 10:13:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061512.jA6FCmrv016292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061512 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061511 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-061715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2386 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...WCNTRL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061511Z - 061715Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LINE DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN NY AND WCNTRL PA THIS MORNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY BEING ISSUED ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA. SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE PRESSURE FALL AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S F. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG SUGGESTING ANY STORM ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... 40057965 41987969 43327916 43447782 43067700 41657689 39857750 39617868 39857959 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 16:46:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 11:46:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061646.jA6GkCvZ030251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061644 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-061845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2387 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 848... VALID 061644Z - 061845Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS ERN OH AND FAR WRN PA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WW 848 WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN OH. SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING IN THE ERN PART OF WW 848 AHEAD OF A STRONG BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE LINES EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL ALLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING EWD WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE LINE TO INTENSIFY. AS A RESULT...WW 848 WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDING LOCALLY IN ERN OH AND ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF PA. THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 38938252 39428278 40788174 42048088 42348006 41847937 39418130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 18:26:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 13:26:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061825.jA6IPvQm012257@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061825 VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2388 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN MD...NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061825Z - 062030Z A CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE OH-WV STATE-LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF WV INTO NRN MD AND NRN VA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL QUICKLY MOVE NEWD SPREADING STRONG ASCENT EWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LINE OF STORMS NEAR THE OH-WV STATE-LINE APPEARS TO BE FORMING JUST AHEAD OF A BAND OF FOCUSED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER OH. AHEAD OF THE LINE...PARTIAL CLEARING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS MOST OF WRN WV. THIS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW THE LINE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SWD THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 39628077 39657881 39137782 38507760 37897786 37477880 37457967 37588131 38138191 39228160 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 19:59:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 14:59:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061959.jA6Jx6US025736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061958 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2389 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NY...ERN PA...FAR NRN MD AND WRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 850... VALID 061958Z - 062130Z SEVERAL LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO THE ERN PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 850. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY EAST OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AN ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX OVER OH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING BAND OF ASCENT IS MOVING ACROSS WRN PA AND IS ENTERING WRN NY ATTM. THIS IS SUPPORTING SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES AHEAD OF THE LINE IN CNTRL PA AND PARTIAL CLEARING IN SW NY. AS A RESULT...DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE LINE ALLOWING THE STORMS TO REMAIN INTENSE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUSTAIN THE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... 44277593 44057400 43387343 40937449 39617543 39587771 39727854 40467844 42837734 43617691 44027653 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 23:49:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 18:49:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511062348.jA6NmoGs028354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062347 VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-070115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2390 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...NRN NJ...ERN NY...WRN VT... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 851... VALID 062347Z - 070115Z COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTAINING SEVERAL BOW/LEWP FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS MOST OF WW AREA..INCLUDING ALB/GFL/POU REGIONS. ZONE OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND E AND SE OF SRN PORTION WW...ACROSS PORTIONS SERN PA...NJ AND NYC AREA...BUT DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT AS INFLOW BECOMES MORE STABLE. ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF LIMITED AREA OF THREAT AND DECLINING PROBABILITIES WITH EWD EXTENT. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL/MOIST AXES JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND OVER ERN NY...THERMAL AXIS CURVING SWWD OVER ERN PA AND MOST AXIS SEWD ACROSS ERN NJ AND JUST OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL ZONE -- ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MARINE AIR MASS ADVECTED OFF ATLANTIC -- EXTENDING NEARLY MERIDIONALLY INVOF ERN NY BORDER. STRONG ISALLOBARIC FORCING OVER ONT/SRN QUE...AND ASSOCIATED BACKING OF LOW SFC FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER E OF MARINE FRONT DRIFTING FARTHER WWD INTO MORE OF HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS BEFORE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTIVE BAND. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE INTENSE LOW LEVEL WAA ABOVE STABLE LAYER WILL OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN TSTM POTENTIAL INTO WRN/NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG. HOWEVER SEVERE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH GREATLY AS CONVECTION CROSSES MARINE FRONT AND PROCEEDS EWD. ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41097570 41707539 41907522 42207528 42717474 43237483 43487427 43977417 44317438 44997423 45017229 42727325 42097342 41727348 41097357 40487392 40017420 39847512 39827560 39817700 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 01:17:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 20:17:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511070117.jA71H9DS015061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070114 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-070315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2391 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MD...DE...PORTIONS SERN PA AND SRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070114Z - 070315Z LINE OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS HAS BACKBUILT SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT...INTO PORTIONS NRN MD. EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ESSENTIALLY IN PACE WITH EWD MOTION OF COLD FRONT. RESULTANT CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CROSS DE VALLEY AND NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGIONS...WEAKENING AS IT APCHS ATLANTIC COAST WHERE SFC AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO MORE COOL/STABLE MARINE LAYER. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL ENOUGH SUCH THAT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER GUSTS OF LARGELY SUBSEVERE CRITERIA MAY STILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGE. 00Z IAD RAOB SHOWS MUCAPE 400-500 J/KG ATOP WELL MIXED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION CAN ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH AND AID IN TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO SFC...FROM AREA OF 40-50 KT FLOW 2-4 KM AGL. COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING -- AND OVER ERN NJ/ERN DELMARVA AREA...MARINE CAA -- WILL REDUCE DCAPE WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...BACKBUILDING MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS LATITUDE OF SRN DE/MD BORDER BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE. ..EDWARDS.. 11/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39257688 40457544 40697398 40467396 40267395 39747406 39367436 38537510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 18:36:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 13:36:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511081836.jA8IaSnW019973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081835 OHZ000-INZ000-082100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2392 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IND...SWRN AND CNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081835Z - 082100Z TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SWRN OH. THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIMITED TO ISOLATED AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE ERN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT BISECTING IND/OH AREA. LIFT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY WAS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EAST FROM IL/IND. GIVEN ANTECEDENT STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...AND INFLUX OF UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS...EXPECT RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KT AND VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WERE ALSO AIDING STORM ORGANIZATION AND COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND HAIL PRODUCTION. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND OBS ACROSS SRN OH SUGGEST SURFACE HEATING COULD FURTHER WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND BOOST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF STORMS CAN INCREASE ACROSS WARM-SECTOR...FROM ERN IND INTO SRN OH...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..CARBIN.. 11/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 39248477 40158570 40828530 40568223 39928118 39308198 38738281 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 23:32:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 18:32:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511082332.jA8NWCk2012789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082330 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-090100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2393 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN IA...CENTRAL/NRN IL...CENTRAL/NRN INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI...SRN LM...SRN WI...WRN OH. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082330Z - 090100Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS IN A WNW-ESE ORIENTED CORRIDOR MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA. THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR W AS MS RIVER REGION. TORNADO WW AND SEPARATE SEVERE TSTM WW FARTHER N ARE BEING PREPARED ATTM. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DOUBLE STRUCTURED WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS REGION. SOUTHERN BOUNDARY -- REINFORCED INITIALLY BY DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING -- IS EVIDENT FROM SWRN IA ESEWD ACROSS NERN MO...SRN IL...EVV/OWB REGION...INTO E-CENTRAL KY. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO LOSE DEFINITION AND CONSOLIDATE NWD AMIDST CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER WAA AND PRESSURE FALLS FARTHER NW. NRN FRONTAL SEGMENT IS STRENGTHENING FROM TRIPLE POINT LOW IN NERN SD...SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA THEN ESEWD OVER CENTRAL IL/INDIANA JUST N OF AN SPI-IND LINE...BECOMING DIFFUSED BY OUTFLOW EWD TO NEAR HTS. LATTER FRONTAL SEGMENT SHOULD MOVE NWD ABOUT 10 KT. MODIFIED 18Z ILX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTMS ALONG OR IN NARROW CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY N OF FRONT TO BE NEARLY SFC-BASED....INFLOW LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT FROM WARM FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. ACCORDINGLY...SFC DEW POINTS LOW 60S F CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG AND S OF NRN FRONT...TRANSITIONING TO ELEVATED MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM N OF NRN WARM FRONT SEGMENT. SBCINH INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT BENEATH STRONGER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...SO POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN OVER WRN IL AND ERN IA THAN FARTHER E. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELL MODES...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND SLGT RISK FOR TORNADOES INVOF FRONT...AND LARGE HAIL BEING MOST DOMINANT THREAT WELL N OF FRONT. STRONG CURVATURE IN HODOGRAPHS ALONG/N OF FRONT AND 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL WNWLYS SUPPORT 0-1 KM SRH 125-250 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS ABOUT 60 KT. ..EDWARDS.. 11/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 39488622 40118963 40729170 41489146 43039054 44138961 43758724 42638344 41398299 39958356 39558428 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 9 01:45:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 20:45:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511090145.jA91jMW8023930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090144 WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-090315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH...SERN LOWER MI...LM...EXTREME SRN LH. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090144Z - 090315Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FROM W-E ACROSS AREA E OF CURRENT WWS 852-853. REGION FROM SERN LOWER MI ACROSS MUCH OF OH IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR HTS NWWD ACROSS SWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL OH...EMANATING FROM MCS NOW DISSIPATING OVER NRN VA AND SRN WV. WRN PORTION OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS ZONE OF SFC WARM FRONTOGENESIS NEAR DAY...LATTER FRONT EXTENDING WNWWD ACROSS WW 852. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- MAINLY IN FORM OF LOW LEVEL WAA...WILL COMBINE WITH MOIST ADVECTION TO SUPPORT BOTH CONVECTION MOVING INTO AREA FROM WWS AND ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT STORM ROTATION. NEAR WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN BOUNDARY LAYER -- COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW...YIELDS 0-1 KM SRH 150-250 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEARS 50-60 KT. STORM INFLOW LAYER WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT FROM BOUNDARIES. ..EDWARDS.. 11/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... 38958224 39698479 40878482 40808419 42968399 43298231 42678247 42308299 41798310 42148104 40268061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 18:35:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 13:35:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511121834.jACIYWYj018190@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121833 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD/SW MN/ERN NEB/WRN IA...ERN KS AND PARTS OF WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121833Z - 122000Z SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE OR MORE TORNADO WWS WILL BE LIKELY BY THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. DRY SLOT...EAST OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...HAS ALLOWED FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING ALONG WESTERN GRADIENT OF NARROW LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE RETURNING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA INTO THE VICINITY OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG DRY LINE/COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW...AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS ELIMINATED...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 60F LIKELY WILL SUPPORT MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR AROUND 21Z...PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER. THEREAFTER...RELATIVELY RAPID EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED FROM SURFACE LOW CENTER SOUTHWARD ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. BROKEN LINE MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MISSOURI OZARKS BY EARLY EVENING. EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLE SHEARED MEAN FLOW REGIME ON THE ORDER OF 50+ KT...DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES SEEM LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 11/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT... 43289815 44139756 44109584 42309486 39669400 38109429 37279520 37209617 39149599 41199682 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 19:55:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 14:55:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511121955.jACJtFbF029102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121954 MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-122230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR...SWD INTO NCENTRAL/NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121954Z - 122230Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z OVER PORTIONS OF ERN OK SWWD INTO NCENTRAL/NERN TX. A WW IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY 21Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM OSAGE COUNTY OK SWWD INTO NCENTRAL TX /JUST TO THE WEST OF THE DFW METRO AREA/. EWD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GREATEST OVER NERN/ECENTRAL OK /AROUND 25 KTS/...CLOSEST TO LOW TO MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM. FURTHER SOUTH OVER SERN OK AND NCENTRAL TX...THE DRYLINE MOVEMENT WILL NOT BE MORE THAN 10 KTS. THE EXPECTED DRYLINE POSITION BY 22Z THEREFORE WILL BE FROM NEAR THE TULSA METRO AREA SWWD TO THE DFW METRO AREA. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE CINH REMAINING. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG WITH CONTINUED WAA AND REMOVAL OF 850-700 MB CAP LAYER WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN/ECENTRAL OK WILL SUPPORT 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORING DISCRETE SUPERCELL TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE GREATER OVER NERN OK INTO NWRN AR/FAR SWRN MO...CLOSEST TO LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CONSEQUENT STRONGEST /20-25 KTS OF 0-1 KM/ LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...LOW LCL/S WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH OVER SERN OK...NERN/NCENTRAL TX...SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS /30-40 KTS/ WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR TYPE. HOWEVER...EVEN OVER THIS AREA...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON SRN FRINGE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. UNLIKE FURTHER NORTH...WEAKER LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT OVER NERN/NCENTRAL TX. ..CROSBIE.. 11/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 36989563 36949609 34959698 33929741 32759785 32569712 32589500 34849435 36379397 36939384 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 21:37:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 16:37:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511122136.jACLaP8m020534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122135 IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-122300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD/SW MN...WRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 858... VALID 122135Z - 122300Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE LOW CENTER...NOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND ALONG DRY LINE WHICH HAS SURGED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO MERGE INTO DRY LINE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD. AS THIS OCCURS...BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SOLIDIFY NEAR/NORTHWEST OF DES MOINES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF FORT DODGE INTO AREAS EAST OF SPENCER. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT IS TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS WITHIN DEVELOPING LINE. PERHAPS SOMEWHAT BETTER TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WHERE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY IS ALREADY BECOMING MAXIMIZED...IN THE VICINITY OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...NEAR/EAST OF SIOUX FALLS THROUGH 00Z. ..KERR.. 11/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43679748 44299686 44309545 43889477 42769386 42109349 41309369 41069438 41949488 42719598 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 22:06:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 17:06:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511122205.jACM5pK4008340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122204 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2406 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN TX...AND SWRN MO/NWRN AR CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 122204Z - 130030Z VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION WHICH MAY AID IN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ATTM...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW THROUGH 00Z. SAT IMAGERY AND VISUAL INSPECTION INDICATES MODERATE CU OVER SERN OK...NEAR ADA. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE REMAINS MODEST ALONG DRYLINE OVER FAR NERN OK. GIVEN ONLY A FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO DRYLINE FCST TO BECOME STATIONARY...DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IN THESE AREAS AND ALONG THE REST OF THE DRYLINE REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH NOTED ON WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00-03Z. DESPITE LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF A 850 MB JET OVER MO...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL WAA/DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MAY ENSUE. IF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH...SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE STATIONARY DRYLINE OVER ERN OK/NERN TX BETWEEN 00-03Z. ..CROSBIE.. 11/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN... 36969540 35809623 34339700 33279748 32849723 32929619 35249482 36709412 36969448 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 22:41:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 17:41:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511122241.jACMf6Xh001600@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122240 IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-122345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2407 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SD...MN...IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 858... VALID 122240Z - 122345Z CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WERE MOVING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL IA AT 40KT....AS WELL AS NWRN IA. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND CELL MOTIONS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2. FARTHER NW...AREA ACROSS SERN SD INTO SWRN MN CONTINUES TO FAVOR STRONG UPWARD MOTION IN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER BENEATH UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSE STORMS WITH HAIL WILL SPREAD INTO SWRN MN OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 11/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40729208 40669397 43769722 44519713 44519310 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 23:26:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 18:26:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511122325.jACNPWmP021009@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122324 ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...WRN WI...ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122324Z - 130030Z A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA...SERN MN...AND WRN WI WITHIN THE HOUR. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN SEVERE STORMS SPREADING NEWD FROM CNTRL IA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DESPITE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS...GPS WATER VAPOR INDICATES GREATER MOISTURE STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR ON THE NOSE OF 80KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX COULD SUSTAIN ELEVATED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING NEWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 11/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42999243 44829322 44819210 44789101 41849028 40679121 40559166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 01:52:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 20:52:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511130151.jAD1pf5i030035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130151 MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SWRN MO AND WRN/CENTRAL AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 860... VALID 130151Z - 130345Z THREAT FOR SVR STORMS INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HRS ACROSS WW 860...ERN OK...SWRN MO AND WRN AR. LATEST PROFILER DATA FROM DE QUEEN AR INDICATES VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...200-300 MS/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH...WAS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF WW 860. MODIFIED 00Z SGF AND SHV SOUNDINGS INDICATES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPES REMAIN OVER MUCH OF WW 860. SUFFICIENT LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LVL WAA SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE GIVEN PRONOUNCED AND STRONG WLY COMPONENT OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON REGIONAL PROFILERS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ALONG STATIONARY DRYLINE ACROSS ERN OK...ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WW 860...AS MID LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. ..CROSBIE.. 11/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 37699454 33629661 33579309 37619102 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 02:10:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 21:10:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511130209.jAD29aL4007837@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130208 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-130315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2410 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN IA...SERN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 859... VALID 130208Z - 130315Z BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SPREAD NORTH OF SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND WAS POSING A DIMINISHING RISK OF TORNADOES. WHILE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS NEXT HOUR OR SO...MUCH OF TORNADO WATCH 859 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION AT 05Z. ..CARBIN.. 11/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43329041 42759206 45459366 45579114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 04:13:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 23:13:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511130412.jAD4CmU0007148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130411 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130411 MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-130545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...SRN MO...WRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 860... VALID 130411Z - 130545Z SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 860 LATE THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF SQUALL LINES WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED OFF THE DRYLINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM SWRN AR NEWD TO SRN MO WAS CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD POOLS. MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-65 KT WAS RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUITABLE FOR CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION. BREAKS OR CELLS WITHIN TRAILING PORTIONS OF EXISTING SQUALL LINES MAY ACQUIRE ROTATION WITH ISOLATED TORNADO STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 PER DEQUEEN AR PROFILER. ..CARBIN.. 11/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33679309 33689623 37679300 37639069 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 05:17:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 00:17:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511130516.jAD5GW8s008854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130515 ARZ000-130645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130515Z - 130645Z PARTS OF CNTRL AR ON THE ERN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 860 COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF CURRENT ACTIVITY MAINTAINS INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING EWD...A NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. MESOSCALE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AR LAST 1-2 HOURS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SALINE...PULASKI...AND FAULKNER COUNTIES WITH THE THREAT OF HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. VWP FROM LZK WAS INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN MESOCYCLONES IN EWD TRACKING CELLS. STORM IN SALINE COUNTY HAS SUPERCELL STRUCTURE AND WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WRN PARTS OF LITTLE ROCK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 11/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK... 34989128 34699137 34539243 34409316 34619338 35039253 35319204 35449149 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 12:30:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 07:30:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511141229.jAECTv5b023936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141228 ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-141430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2413 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX/SERN OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141228Z - 141430Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE NOT LIKELY IN THE NEAR TERM. CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING...ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SRN STREAM UPPER FEATURE NOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS TX. BOUNDARY LAYER N OF WARM FRONT -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM NERN TX EWD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER INTO NRN MS/NRN AL ATTM -- IS PARTICULARLY STABLE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT N OF THIS BOUNDARY TO HAIL. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION...GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/ SUGGESTS THAT HAIL SIZE WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN AN INCH OR SO. ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLIGHTLY LESS STABLE...BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY STABLE ATTM TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN A VERY MARGINAL WIND/TORNADO THREAT. AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WITH MAIN FORCING MECHANISM LIMITED TO WARM ADVECTION -- AND THUS CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS N OF WARM FRONT...AMOUNT OF WARM-SECTOR SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION REMAINS UNCLEAR ATTM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED/WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 11/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... 32419610 34799509 35749380 35478989 34368754 32828759 31949356 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 18:18:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 13:18:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511141818.jAEII4op006745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141816 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-142315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2414 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL CO...SRN WY AND NERN UT ABOVE 6000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 141816Z - 142315Z HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES IN CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS SRN WY...NERN UT...AND MUCH OF NRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CO DURING THE NEXT 3-4 HRS. A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL WY INTO SERN ID WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH SRN WY/NERN UT INTO NRN CO THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HRS. THE DURATION OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FROM 3-4 HRS...WHEN STRONG FRONTAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERLAYS STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF STRONG/DIGGING MID-UPPER JET MAX NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN UT/SERN ID. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT NLDN DATA CONFIRM THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE STRONGEST AND DEEPEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW THAT WILL TURN NNWLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL FAVOR WRN/NRN UPSLOPE REGIONS WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION THE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SUPPORT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVER SRN WY/NERN UT AND MUCH OF NRN CO AROUND 00Z...AND OVER CENTRAL CO ROCKIES BY 03Z...AS STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. ..CROSBIE.. 11/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... 42380618 42660724 42580849 42011081 41861135 41311147 40411133 40151069 40140931 39170829 38830668 39020568 39570484 41390469 41680505 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 19:13:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 14:13:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511141915.jAEJF4ko023418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141912 TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2415 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ECNTRL AR...WRN TN...EXTREME NWRN MS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141912Z - 142045Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NRN STREAM IMPULSE MIGRATING ACROSS NWRN MO...WITH SRN-MOST INFLUENCE GRAZING THE OZARKS THIS AFTN. PRESSURE FALLS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY HAVE INCREASED NOTABLY SINCE 15Z. THIS HAS AIDED IN AN ACCELERATION OF THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM NERN TX INTO CNTRL AR. CONSEQUENTLY...THE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS HAS SURGED NNEWD INTO CNTRL AR AND WRN TN...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING. CU STREETS HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT INTO CBS ACROSS SRN AR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. TSTMS ARE MOSTLY ELEVATED...BUT COULD BEGIN TO ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/WARM SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S. IF THIS OCCURS...EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM EAST OF LITTLE ROCK TO VCNTY MEMPHIS. IF TSTMS STAY SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATED N OF THE WARM FRONT...HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ..RACY.. 11/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... 34289295 35249232 35949011 36308924 35768884 35138893 34529005 33779196 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 21:45:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 16:45:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511142144.jAELiQ1E019526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142142 TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN AR...WRN TN...EXTREME NWRN MS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 861... VALID 142142Z - 142315Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP QUICKLY NWD THROUGH THE MS VLY...NORTH OF KMEM THEN INTO SRN KY. THE COLD WEDGE IN THE OZARKS HAS BEEN A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO SCOUR ALONG THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD DO SO THIS EVENING. EARLIER BRIEF EPISODE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY TIED TO THE TAIL-END OF THE MO MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...WAS TRANSLATING NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY. BUT...RAPID APPROACH OF A STRONGER JET STREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS /INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NRN TX/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL UPSWING IN TSTMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK AND STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS. THUS...WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY FIELDS THIS AFTN...SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 11/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33359251 33469305 34229334 34909314 35609201 36399105 36498919 36338886 35658874 34848919 34229021 34029127 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 22:57:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 17:57:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511142257.jAEMvFLO005138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142256 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-150130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS....NRN AL...WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142256Z - 150130Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO COULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN A SW-NE BAND FROM SCNTRL MS TO NRN AL/MIDDLE TN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LINKED TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IMPULSE SPREADING NEWD FROM TX/LA ATOP LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WHERE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED A MESOSCALE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN AL/NERN MS AND WEAK ROTATION WAS EVIDENT IN CELLS TRACKING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY A COUPLE OF FACTORS INCLUDING 1) LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...AND 2) WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR BASED ON OKO PROFILER AND VWP DATA IS ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFT ROTATION AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH DISCRETE CELLS...AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS...AND PASSAGE/DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FORCING...SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH OVER THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 11/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 36318554 33788710 31639015 32349070 36438789 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 23:42:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 18:42:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511142341.jAENfijY002927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142340 TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-150115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SRN MO...AR...WRN TN...NWRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 861... VALID 142340Z - 150115Z LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN TORNADO WATCH 861 OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE...RADAR ECHOES WERE INCREASING FROM ERN OK TO NRN AR AND SRN MO. A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS...NORTH AND WEST OF TORNADO WATCH 861...WITHIN THE HOUR. RAPID CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY NWD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS INTENSIFYING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS SEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FROM SERN OK INTO CNTRL AR APPEARS TO BE SURGING NWD ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM ERN OK TO NRN AR. WHILE THIS CONVECTION WAS GENERALLY DEVELOPING ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT AND A CONTINUING INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN COINCIDENT WITH THIS AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND INTENSIFYING LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO RESULT IN GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH TIME. EXPECT THE THREAT OF ELEVATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH HAIL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE IMMINENT THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM. ..CARBIN.. 11/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 35058877 33289304 34759351 34359525 34949603 36589514 37728993 36848940 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 02:57:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 21:57:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511150257.jAF2v5gi021741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150256 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-150530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2419 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR...SRN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY/TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150256Z - 150530Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SRN PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY. WATCHES ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS STEADILY STRENGTHENED THROUGH THE EVENING IN AN EXTENSIVE BAND FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. STORMS HAVE SO FAR REMAINED SUB-SEVERE POSSIBLY DUE TO MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACT ON A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS INCREASING FROM OK ENEWD TO WRN KY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOSTLY NORTH OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHANCE FOR HAIL. CHANCE FOR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS...AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL...MAY INCREASE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES OVER PARTS OF THE REGION NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34569377 34129549 35889648 36599392 38168871 38668655 36988700 35699093 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 05:09:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 00:09:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511150509.jAF599WN006370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150508 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-150645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150508Z - 150645Z CLUSTER OF INTENSE TSTMS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NERN OK MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS AND SWRN MO INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE AREA AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG A VARIETY OF SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE THAT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY FROM SRN KS INTO SWRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY ONGOING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD FROM NERN OK ATTM. RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT DUE TO PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 36999493 37059701 38419697 38409274 37099191 36969384 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 08:24:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 03:24:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511150823.jAF8NKSa021128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150822 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-151015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NRN AR/SRN MO/WRN KS/SRN IL/SRN IN/PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 862...863... VALID 150822Z - 151015Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 862 AND 863...WITH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ALSO CONTINUING -- ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MO ENEWD ALONG/INVOF THE OH RIVER. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE INVOF MAIN WARM FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER N CENTRAL OK EWD ACROSS FAR SRN MO AND THEN ENEWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE OH RIVER. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS GREATER S OF WARM FRONT...MAIN FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARY. EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY AND AREAS N FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH MORE ISOLATED/CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW 862/863 S OF WARM FRONT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NWD TOWARD THE FRONT. THOUGH THIS MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE THUS FAR...TORNADO THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE SHOULD A FEW STRONGER STORMS EVOLVE GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR RAPID ACQUISITION OF ROTATION WITH ANY STRONGER CELL. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND DRY SLOT APPARENTLY DEVELOPING/SPREADING EWD ACCORDING TO LATEST WV IMAGERY -- IN SUPPORT OF MODEL FORECASTS...EXPECT MAIN SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS WW 862/AWAY FROM CENTRAL OK WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36719706 38308569 36318602 35269111 34669583 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 08:59:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 03:59:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511150858.jAF8wkT3013088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150857 MOZ000-KSZ000-151000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2422 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SE KS...W CENTRAL AND SW MO. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150857Z - 151000Z SEVERE TSTM THREAT...MAINLY LIMITED TO HAIL...WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO. THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE DISCUSSED WITH LOCAL WFO/S SHORTLY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS E/SE KS INTO W/SW MO IN THE REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/STRONG ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN NRN OK AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER WRN KS. A 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ IS FEEDING MOISTURE N OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...AND 06Z OBS PLUS RECENT RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE OF 1000-150O J/KG OVERSPREADING SE KS/SW MO THIS MORNING. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT...AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 30-60 MIN. ..THOMPSON.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38749370 38329337 37449349 37259392 37159497 37219585 37299684 37749721 38289740 38639717 38809618 38859447 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 12:08:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 07:08:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151207.jAFC7fBh006761@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151204 ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-151400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK/NERN TX/SRN MO/AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151204Z - 151400Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH TIME AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MS RIVER. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 15/14Z...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT LIKELY TO BEGIN WITHIN THIS WW AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS ERN OK/N TX ATTM...S OF SURFACE LOW NOW ANALYZED IN FAR NERN OK. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS FAR SRN MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND N OF THIS FRONT. WITHIN WARM SECTOR...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ EXISTS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO SRN MO WITH TIME AS WARM FRONT RETREATS AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW. RAOBS FROM 15/06Z WITHIN WW AREA SHOW 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE...WHICH SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION -- NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER FAR ERN OK. ALL DATA -- FROM PROFILERS/VWPS TO RAOBS TO MODEL FORECASTS -- REVEAL WIND PROFILES FEATURING INCREASINGLY-STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW INITIATING STORMS TO RAPIDLY ACQUIRE MESOCYCLONIC ROTATION. THOUGH STORM MODE SHOULD BECOME QUASI-LINEAR INVOF COLD FRONT...EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWPS/SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO BECOME UNCAPPED BY MID-MORNING...EXPECT OTHER BANDS OF MORE ISOLATED/SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT. THREAT FOR TORNADOES -- WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT -- MAY BE PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED WITHIN THESE PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN AR/SERN MO FROM ROUGHLY MIDDAY ONWARD. THOUGH INITIAL WATCH WILL LIKELY REMAIN W OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE LATER THIS MORNING E OF THE MS RIVER...LIKELY REQUIRING ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCES FROM MS NWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER. ..GOSS.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32989205 32919627 34369552 37119452 38099093 37828957 35019021  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 13:49:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 08:49:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151348.jAFDmh9N016426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151347 IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-151745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NEB/FAR NE KS INTO WRN IA/SW MN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 151347Z - 151745Z A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT/OCNLY MDT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FROM FAR ERN NEB/FAR NE KS INTO WRN IA/SW MN. INCREASINGLY STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ADVERSELY IMPACT LOCAL CONDITIONS. LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW OCCURRING WITHIN THE WRN PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. SIMILAR TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...12Z RUC/06Z NAM AND LATEST SREF PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A SIMILAR CHANGE-OVER WILL OCCUR PROGRESSIVELY EWD ACROSS WRN IA/SW MN THROUGH 15Z-18Z...COINCIDENT WITH CAA/ONSET OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH...WITH WEAK STATIC STABILITY CONTRIBUTING TO SOME ENHANCED NORTH-SOUTH BANDING. IN ADDITION...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NWLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE ALREADY NOTED WITHIN EARLY MORNING NELIGH NEB PROFILER DATA PER 40-50 KTS IN LOWEST FEW KM. ..GUYER.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP... 44329637 44139387 43229374 40889440 39989513 39329609 40059705 42749693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 14:33:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 09:33:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151432.jAFEWlu1017010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151432 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151431 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-151530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...CNTRL/SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151431Z - 151530Z TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 15-16Z FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. 14Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT ALONG THE OH RVR WEST TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER SWRN MO. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT WAS FARTHER N...FROM THE LOW NEWD INTO SCNTRL IL AND CNTRL IND. AS THE PCPN SHIELD N OF THE OH RVR BECOMES MORE CELLULAR...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP QUICKLY NWD TO WHERE THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT IS LOCATED. WARM MOIST AIR MASS...VERY STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38559329 39849010 40088709 40058568 39178547 38378601 38098740 37659329 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 15:33:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 10:33:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151532.jAFFWOgS029829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151531 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151531 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-151730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0931 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...MUCH OF LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151531Z - 151730Z PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. ONE OR MORE WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS KS. DEEPENING SFC LOW WAS OVER SWRN MO AND SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO WCNTRL IL THIS AFTN. STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY THROUGH THE AFTN...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE DYNAMIC SITUATION AT HAND...SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONFLUENT BANDS WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONE SUCH BAND APPEARS TO BE FORMING FROM SWRN-NERN LA...SIMILAR TO THE 00Z WRF-NMM SOLUTION. STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY REGION THIS AFTN WHERE VERY MOIST/WARM AIR MASS WILL RESIDE. THOUGH STRONGER UVV SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO THE OH VLY/MIDWEST... TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTN FARTHER S AND COULD GET A BOOST FROM A SUBTLE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS SRN TX ATTM. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY. FARTHER W...A LINE OF TSTMS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN TX. THIS LINEAR MODE WILL CONTAIN EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE LWR MS VLY THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30409665 32929562 32888859 29429116 29479704 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 16:15:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 11:15:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151614.jAFGEpLm001580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151614 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151613 INZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-151815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN OK...EXTREME NERN TX...AR...SRN MO...EXTREME SRN IL...FAR WRN KY...WRN TN...NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 864...865... VALID 151613Z - 151815Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE. GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...WILL EXIST IN A REGION BOUNDED BY A LITTLE ROCK AR-VICHY MO-SALEM IL-EVANSVILLE IND-CROSSVILLE TN LINE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTN. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS EXIST FROM THE KSTL AREA NEWD INTO CNTRL IL. DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SWRN MO WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THESE FALLS THROUGH MID-AFTN. THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE OH VLY WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT N OF THE OH RVR... BUT WAS A LITTLE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE OZARKS. AS THE LOW REDEVELOPS NEWD...THE WARM AIR SHOULD ADVANCE INTO ECNTRL MO-CNTRL IL-CNTRL IND LINE BY MID-AFTN. STRONGEST LLJ AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXIST FROM THE MS DELTA NWD INTO WRN KY AND CNTRL IND BENEATH INCREASING SWLY FLOW OF 100+ KTS AT H5. RESULTANT DEEP/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF AR INTO ECNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY AND WRN TN. PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS...ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AR AND SRN MO WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITH BOTH DISCRETE AND MIXED LINEAR-DISCRETE MODES LIKELY TO EXIST. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W-E ACROSS SRN MO/AR/NERN TX AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD... 33099522 34389540 35379446 37319340 38699146 39348842 39068658 36538713 32908832 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 17:57:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 12:57:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151756.jAFHuHnq015337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151755 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-152000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/SERN IND...WCNTRL/SWRN OH AND NWRN/NCNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151755Z - 152000Z TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN/CNTRL IND...SWRN/WCNTRL OH AND PERHAPS NWRN/NCNTRL KY. THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SRN IND AND CNTRL OH EARLY THIS AFTN AND SHOULD CONTINUE NWD TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA AND INTO WCNTRL OH BY 21Z. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/S OF THE FRONT AND SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY AS THE SWLY LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EWD LATER THIS AFTN. CHARACTER OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN IND HAS ALREADY EVOLVED INTO DISCRETE CELLS. VWP FROM WILMINGTON OH SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE THAT WILL ONLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AND SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE AFTER 21-22Z. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 40498627 40838482 40558293 38478404 38038445 37638501 37648576 37678637 38088629 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 18:37:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 13:37:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151836.jAFIaiNS018663@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151834 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2429 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...WRN KY...ECNTRL/SERN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SWRN IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 864...865...866... VALID 151834Z - 152030Z HIGH PROBABILITY FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z ACROSS EXTREME SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY AND WRN TN. SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO ECNTRL MO AS OF 18Z...JUST W OF KSTL. THE WARM FRONT HAS ADVANCED INTO SRN IL AND SRN IND AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH A WARM/HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER NOW IN PLACE OVER ALL OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND SWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO CNTRL IL BY LATE AFTN...WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING NWD INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND AR THROUGH THE AFTN. TSTMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS ERN AR HAVE INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MS VLY AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. OTHER STORMS HAVE ALSO INTENSIFIED FROM NEAR KSTL SWWD INTO CNTRL AR ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EXIST FROM THE MEMPHIS AREA NWD INTO SERN MO...SRN IL EWD INTO SWRN IND...FAR W KY. PAH/MEM VWPS SHOW 0-1KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS AND 0-3KM SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TORNADOES. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION INTO DISCRETE CELLS NOTED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM ALONG THE MS RVR FROM MEMPHIS NWD INTO SRN IL...THEN EWD INTO SRN IND...FAR W KY AND WRN TN THROUGH 22Z. FARTHER W AND S...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE EWD. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES HAVE RELAXED SOMEWHAT OWING TO A WEAKENING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. BUT...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIXED MODE OF DISCRETE CELLS/SHORT LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR ALONG THE FRONT. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF... 34079329 36589165 38039111 39119099 40158957 40298803 39578700 38528638 36138747 33358907 33209156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 19:32:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 14:32:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151931.jAFJVYWt032097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151930 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/IA/EXTREME WRN WI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 151930Z - 160030Z ...AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA WITH RAIN GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI LATE THIS AFTN... SFC ANALYSIS FROM 19Z INDICATES SFC LOW JUST WEST OF STL WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD TO NEAR DSM/MWM/DTL. WARM FRONT IS MOVING NWD ACROSS CNTRL IL/NRN IND INTO SRN LOWER MI. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET NOW ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 100 KT BY EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN IL/LAKE MI TONIGHT. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS /NEAR 1-2 MB PER HOUR/ ARE NOTED ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL. ALTHOUGH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW /PER LATEST 850MB TEMPERATURES/ A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AT THE SFC WILL PROMOTE RAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA SUGGEST RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM THE TWIN CITIES SWD TO RST/ALO BETWEEN 21-23Z. SNOW MAY BEGIN EARLIER AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS /IE MS RIVER BLUFFS/ OWING TO THE SHALLOW WARM LAYER. BECAUSE THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC LIFT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 16/00Z...SNOW RATES INITIALLY WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH PER HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. VERY STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. ..TAYLOR.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 45219647 40599588 40569307 41939148 42889099 43739113 44579158 45109242 45299299 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 19:35:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 14:35:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151934.jAFJYsbI002494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151932 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-152100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...CNTRL/SRN IND...WCNTRL/SWRN OH...NWRN KY...NWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151932Z - 152100Z THERE WILL BE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS THE OH VLY REGION FROM SRN IL/NWRN TN EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN IND... WCNTRL/SWRN OH AND NWRN KY. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WWS 865/866 BY 21Z. A 999 MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NE OF KSTL AT 19Z. THE WARM FRONT HAS JUMPED TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA AND IS MOVING INTO WCNTRL OH ATTM. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/S OF THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOSING NWD INTO THE OH/TN VLYS. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE OH VLY. PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS INTENSIFIED FROM SRN IL INTO WRN TN AS IT MOVED INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NOTED. OVERLAY OF 18Z RAOB DATA AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST CROSS-OVER BETWEEN SLY H85 WINDS AND THE WSWLY H5 WINDS EXISTS ACROSS SRN IND/NWRN KY/SWRN OH AT MID-AFTN. LATEST VWP FROM PAH/EVANSVILLE/WILMINGTON OHIO SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES /0-1KM SHEAR 35+ KTS/ AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS WITHIN SERN QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW/PRESSURE FALL AXIS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND MIXED MODES OF LINE SEGMENTS/ DISCRETE CELLS WILL REMAIN LIKELY DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN IND...NWRN KY...WRN TN AND SWRN/WCNTRL OH WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 38558996 40028708 40408473 40348310 39938280 39028337 37958471 35918786 35958934 37258918  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 20:57:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 15:57:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511152056.jAFKubvH014328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152055 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-152200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NWRN AL...MIDDLE/WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152055Z - 152200Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY EAST OF WT 865 TO INCLUDE MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF NWRN AL. THIS NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY REPLACE PARTS OF WT 865 TO EXTEND IT IN DURATION ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TN AND NRN MS. LLJ/UPPER JET AXES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING ATOP A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTN AND THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN LATER THIS AFTN. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN MS. LOW-DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN... 35088599 33998677 32988760 33219100 36558901 36588703 36578488 36058523 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 21:19:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 16:19:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511152118.jAFLIbNP000893@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152117 MSZ000-LAZ000-152245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LA AND SWRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 867... VALID 152117Z - 152245Z THE MAJORITY OF THE MASS CONVERGENCE WAS LOCATED N OF THE REGION THIS AFTN. BUT...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE EJECTING NEWD FROM THE UPPER TX COAST...HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL LA NEWD INTO CNTRL MS. TSTMS SEEM TO BE FAVORING A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM THE MS DELTA SWWD TO THE UPPER TX COAST...WITH OTHER STORMS ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL LA INTO ECNTRL TX. GIVEN THE VEERING/WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...HELICITY HAS RELAXED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH. BUT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN AN OTHERWISE DOMINANT LINE SEGMENT ENVIRONMENT. THUS...IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS NERN LA/SWRN MS NEWD INTO THE TN/OH VLYS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30519363 32849245 32808948 31089069 30469188 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 21:43:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 16:43:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511152142.jAFLgZ2n020069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152140 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-152315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...EXTREME SRN LWR MI AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152140Z - 152315Z THE TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN IND...EXTREME SRN LWR MI AND NWRN OH. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A PSBL WW. WARMER AIR WAS WORKING NWD INTO NRN IND AND NRN OH LATE THIS AFTN AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER CNTRL IL. PER SATL/RADAR...TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS NERN IND...WITH OTHER STORMS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER ECNTRL IL. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE SWLY LLJ AXIS...THE WARM AIR WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO SRN LWR MI LATER THIS EVENING...WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING/MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD TOWARD SRN LWR MI. LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. STORMS THAT WILL INITIALLY BE ELEVATED...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP/EVOLVE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN THE RAPIDLY MODIFYING AIR MASS...INCREASING THE RISKS FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 41088698 41918512 42378397 42298310 41328320 40988438 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 00:00:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 19:00:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511152359.jAFNxO0s010943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152358 KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TN...KY...NRN MS/AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 868...869... VALID 152358Z - 160130Z LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TORNADOES CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCHES 868 AND 869 THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE AND PERSISTENT CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE BEEN MOVING TOWARD MIDDLE TN AND SCNTRL KY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS CROSSING A CORRIDOR WHERE INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED ROTATING STORMS AND TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. ONE OF THESE CELLS HAS JUST CROSSED BWG AREA AND ADDITIONAL INTENSE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORMS ARE NOW MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NASHVILLE AREA FROM THE WEST AT 40-50KT. ..CARBIN.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 37028672 38538524 38258436 36458471 35298567 34488671 34568898 35068872 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 00:21:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 19:21:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160021.jAG0L7Uv023404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160020 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-160115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS AND AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160020Z - 160115Z A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SRN MS AND MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN AL...TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 867 AND THE SRN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH 869. EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST INTO LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM THE MS DELTA REGION NEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO NERN AL OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG THE LINE...A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG SHEAR EVIDENT IN EVENING RAOBS AND VWP DATA. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30178953 31058972 31059023 32828900 32888807 33438729 34948582 33518538 31218710 30328753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 00:58:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 19:58:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160057.jAG0vXxB013455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160056 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-160700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA/MUCH OF WI/UPPER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 160056Z - 160700Z ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TONIGHT FROM SW AND CNTRL WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI... SFC LOW NOW DOWN TO 995MB NEAR CHICAGO WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD STURGEON BAY BY 06Z WITH STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSED ACROSS ERN WI/WRN LAKE MI. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 120 KT OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP FROM ERN IA/SWRN WI INTO NERN WI AND UPPER MI. PRECIPITATION HAS RECENTLY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW ACROSS CNTRL WI PER LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS. THE ETA FORECAST 2M TEMPS ARE LIKELY TOO WARM AS COMPARED TO LATEST OBSERVED TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DYNAMIC COOLING AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS WILL FAVOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ETA/GFS SOLNS INDICATE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOW TRACK...FROM SWRN WI INTO UPPER MI. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ONE OR MORE BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH DEEP ASCENT OCCURRING FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVIER SNOW SPREADING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA AFTER 06Z. THIS FIRST MAJOR SNOW OF THE YEAR WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS...WHICH WILL CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF NEW SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY. ..TAYLOR.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 47799009 46539219 43419261 42929214 42628990 43118912 44898764 46238676 46868672 47468746 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 01:53:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 20:53:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160152.jAG1qJsV015215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160151 WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-160245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160151Z - 160245Z A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KY AND ERN TN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST AT OVER 50KT AND INTO PARTS OF ERN KY AND NERN TN THROUGH LATE EVENING. WARM AND MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF VERY STRONG FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUING THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... 35708464 36728501 38258383 38208291 38238198 35838305 35258425 35428456 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 02:08:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 21:08:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160207.jAG27x4q027151@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160206 OHZ000-WVZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-160330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2439 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...WRN/CNTRL OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870... VALID 160206Z - 160330Z GRADUAL DECLINE IN STORM INTENSITY NOTED OVER PARTS OF OH/MI LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 870 MAY BE CLEARED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY ACROSS NRN/WRN SECTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 870. HOWEVER... DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAIN FORMIDABLE. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA DEPICTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN MI EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE. DIAGNOSTIC PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR DISCRETE CELLS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITHIN LARGER RAIN AREA. WITH COLD FRONT AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT STILL MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT PERSISTS AT PRESENT. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR... 41358456 42878415 42868272 41678278 41958156 40348209 39758216 39278175 38308252 38308400 39618385 40748373 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 02:31:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 21:31:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160230.jAG2UViw009509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160229 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-160400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2440 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0829 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871... VALID 160229Z - 160400Z EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES EAST ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 871 THIS EVENING. GIVEN WELL-DEVELOPED AND DEEP COLD POOL THAT HAS EVOLVED BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION...AND THE PRESENCE OF MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE...EXPECT STRONG UPDRAFTS TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. BOWING LINE SEGMENT INTERSECTIONS WILL ALSO BE AREAS WHERE STORMS CAN ACQUIRE ROTATION AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THESE FEATURES. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29909140 31229082 32828939 35028585 33108556 31878701 30748935 30339014 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 04:20:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 23:20:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160419.jAG4JIug007621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160418 TNZ000-ALZ000-160445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2441 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 869...871...872... VALID 160418Z - 160445Z INTENSE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 872 WITHIN THE HOUR. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS MIDDLE TN AS THE STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS OVER THE REGION AND TORNADO WATCH 869 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN... 36588451 34668633 34998645 36608548 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 04:30:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 23:30:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160430.jAG4UBqJ012973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160429 OHZ000-160500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2442 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870... VALID 160429Z - 160500Z LOW-TOPPED LINE OF STRONGER CELLS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO NWRN OH. HOWEVER...LACK OF CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THIS CONVECTION CONFIRMS THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. NONETHELESS...VERY INTENSE WIND FIELDS ARE NOTED ON CLE VWP AND A SEVERE WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WATCH 870 WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR AND...BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER OH. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39828221 40228340 41928333 41918264 41978147 41458156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 04:40:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 23:40:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160440.jAG4e4MI019376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160418 TNZ000-ALZ000-160445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2441 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 869...871...872... VALID 160418Z - 160445Z INTENSE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 872 WITHIN THE HOUR. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS MIDDLE TN AS THE STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS OVER THE REGION AND TORNADO WATCH 869 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN... 36588451 34668633 34998645 36608548  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 04:49:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 23:49:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160448.jAG4mHpn023071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160429 OHZ000-160500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2442 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870... VALID 160429Z - 160500Z LOW-TOPPED LINE OF STRONGER CELLS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO NWRN OH. HOWEVER...LACK OF CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THIS CONVECTION CONFIRMS THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. NONETHELESS...VERY INTENSE WIND FIELDS ARE NOTED ON CLE VWP AND A SEVERE WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WATCH 870 WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR AND...BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER OH. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39828221 40228340 41928333 41918264 41978147 41458156  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 05:10:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 00:10:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160509.jAG59ZDM004492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160507 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160507 WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/TN...NRN/CNTRL/SWRN AL...SERN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871...872... VALID 160507Z - 160600Z EXTENSIVE PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND TRAILS SSWWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MS DELTA. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN CG ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A STEADY DECLINE IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE OF FORCING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS STORMS IN WATCH 872 MOVE ACROSS THE WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS. WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER...REMAIN VERY INTENSE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AND A FEW SEVERE GUSTS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY. FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE GREATER MOISTURE EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS WATCH 871...WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION WERE CONTRIBUTING TO A DEMISE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. STRONG GUSTS MAY STILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 31168792 31148918 32968758 35018565 36028501 38168370 38218199 35028407 34968548 33208559  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 05:35:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 00:35:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160534.jAG5YOj0016555@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160530 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160530 MIZ000-WIZ000-160930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE WI/UPPER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 160530Z - 160930Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE SPREADING N/NE ACROSS FAR NE WI/UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HINDERED BY MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES...SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH 1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS. 00Z UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS/SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES PROGRESSIVELY STACKED/CLOSED LOW ACROSS FAR ERN WI/LAKE MI. AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURGING DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE IS SERVING TO INCREASE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY LATE THIS EVENING...WITH CG LIGHTNING HAVING DISTINCTLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS ACROSS THE ERN MI U.P. AND LAKE MI. RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED BAND OF SNOW HAS PERSISTED FROM NEAR OSHKOSH NWD TO THE RHINELANDER/IRON MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH DYNAMIC COOLING/SUFFICIENTLY HIGH PRECIP RATES PROMOTING SNOW PRECIP-TYPE. COINCIDENT WITH NEWD TRACK OF CYCLONE...THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION N/NE ACROSS FAR NE WI/UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER/MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SNOW RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE INTENSE N-S ORIENTED BANDS...ESPECIALLY AS AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY FURTHERS TENDENCY FOR MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT. ..GUYER.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB... 46788751 46278689 45488758 44498811 44778901 45328905 45708923 46058928 47128868 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 08:06:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 03:06:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160805.jAG85Ew4021042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160803 VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2445 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WV/WRN VA/FAR ERN TN/WRN NC/WRN SC/NRN AND CENTRAL GA/ERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160803Z - 161000Z SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED/LOCAL...BUT MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVECTIVE LINE PROGRESSES EWD. NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS AL AND THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS ATTM...THOUGH RADAR AND LIGHTNING IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME. THIS IS AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY FROM SRN AL NNEWD WHERE LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINS. DESPITE THIS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA -- AHEAD OF LARGE/ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN STRONGER SEGMENTS ALONG CONVECTIVE LINE. ..GOSS.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...BMX... 33008576 37688232 39478049 39457926 38877850 34388213 33228363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 10:43:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 05:43:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511161042.jAGAgtYp013153@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161038 NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-161245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2446 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL PA/ERN WV PANHANDLE...PARTS OF MD...AND NRN AND WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161038Z - 161245Z LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN PA/ERN WV AND FAR SWRN VA ATTM. WW IS BEING CONSIDERED...THOUGH NEED FOR ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION -- DEVOID OF CG LIGHTNING FROM CENTRAL WV NWD -- CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ATTM. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW NEUTRAL TO MINIMALLY-BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT...ABOVE A SLIGHTLY-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THOUGH FORCING MECHANISM REMAINS UNCLEAR AS CONVECTIVE LINE REMAINS WELL AHEAD OF FRONT -- AND POORLY-SIMULATED BY ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS...CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN A SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS -- MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT. WITH 60-PLUS KT FLOW INDICATED AT 850 MB ACROSS THIS REGION...LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE THUS FAR APPEARS TO BE THE SLIGHTLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. HOWEVER UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL THAT THIS SLIGHTLY-LESS-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY FACILITATE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY LOW-PROBABILITY SCENARIO ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS SCENARIO AND POSSIBLE NEED FOR WW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...RLX... 41967838 43247789 43287622 42027585 40287636 37337791 36957943 37038055 38058023 39537855 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 15:47:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 10:47:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511161547.jAGFkxT7022261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161544 MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-161715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0944 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN PA...ERN NY...WRN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 161544Z - 161715Z ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS EXTREME NERN PA...ERN NY AND WRN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. STRONG ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW WAS SHIFTING QUICKLY NEWD INTO QUEBEC LATE THIS MORNING. BUT...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORCING WAS GRAZING PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL NY SWD INTO CNTRL PA THAT HAVE SHOWN A MARGINAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THIS ENHANCED UVV MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. VSBL SATL SHOWS SOME BINOVC ACROSS MAINLY ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL PROBABLY DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTN OWING TO HEATING. THUS...THE BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FURTHER INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVES INTO ERN NY IN A FEW HOURS. STRONG WSWLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN WIND COULD ENCOURAGE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND INCREASE THE RISK OF A ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MAIN NEGATIVE WILL BE THE OVERALL LIMITED DEEP FORCING THAT IS TYPICALLY OBSERVED IN A WELL-DEFINED NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND THAT PRODUCES DAMAGING WIND. BUT...GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE NON-ZERO. ..RACY.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... 41437576 44937464 44997308 44027307 43137321 42317301 41267374 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 17:35:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 12:35:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511161734.jAGHYUhG012750@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161733 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161733 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-161900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM SERN NY SWD INTO DELMARVA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161733Z - 161900Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN FROM SERN NY SWD ACROSS ERN PA...NJ...DE...CNTRL/ERN MD AND NRN VA. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM CNTRL NY SWD ACROSS CNTRL PA AND WRN VA. A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION EXISTS 40-50 MILES EAST OF THE FRONT AND SEEMS TO BE INTENSIFYING BASED ON COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER VSBL SATL IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE GRADUALLY STEEPENING AHEAD OF THIS BAND WHERE BINOVC HAVE BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPER LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE AFTN...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL RAINBAND. COMBINATION OF AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED UVV WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN. STRONG WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS TO DEVELOP AND ISOLD-SCT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 38547775 39757671 41257580 41357474 41167341 38567491 38397633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 00:13:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 19:13:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511170012.jAH0Cimf025038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170011 MIZ000-170615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2449 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 170011Z - 170615Z ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OF THE SEASON... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ANTRIM/OTSEGO/MONTMORENCY COUNTIES IN NRN LOWER MI. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS TO NNW...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT SNOWBAND BUT ULTIMATELY DISRUPT ORIENTATION. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 18Z/21Z RUC AND 18Z NAM SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE BANDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF TRAVERSE CITY LATER THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ONLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE GIVEN ONGOING STRONG COLD ADVECTION. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...RESULTING IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY EARLY THU MORNING. ..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 11/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR... 44088550 44138623 45178631 45428445 45168371 44488383 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 10:06:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 05:06:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511211005.jALA5o0G007088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211004 FLZ000-211130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2450 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211004Z - 211130Z POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 0950Z...TAMPA RADAR DATA SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING FROM MANATEE COUNTY SWWD TO 60 W OF FMY...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE W COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CURRENT EXISTS N OF CTY...HOWEVER CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. AS A CONSEQUENCE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ARE GRADUALLY VEERING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NNE. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INVOF ONGOING STORMS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F WERE RESULTING IN SBCAPES OF AROUND 900 J/KG. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC AND NAM SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST OVERSPREADS MOIST WARM SECTOR. LOCAL VWPS AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF AROUND 35 KTS. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...IT APPEARS THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/VEERING WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..MEAD.. 11/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29428324 29678276 29368159 28498142 27098153 26588199 26848249 27748280 28968299 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 15:17:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 10:17:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511211516.jALFGUYA018709@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211515 NCZ000-SCZ000-211715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2451 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211515Z - 211715Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ALONG CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH AND WILMINGTON. AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG COASTAL FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR/ACROSS CAPE FEAR INTO THE MOREHEAD CITY VICINITY BY 18Z...THEN ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND/OUTER BANKS AREAS BY AROUND 21Z. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN STABLE OVER INLAND AREAS...WEAK DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR...EAST NORTHEAST OF LOW CENTER...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS. IF THIS OCCURS...DEEP FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO EXISTS...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS LARGE/HAIL. ..KERR.. 11/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... 34097865 34487774 34897720 35707617 35887555 35567515 35007520 34187642 33707746 33497804 33487844 33787865 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 20:51:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 15:51:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511212050.jALKo87w018125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212049 NCZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2452 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 873... VALID 212049Z - 212215Z CONTINUE WW. STRONGEST 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFF VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF LEAD WAVE ALONG COASTAL FRONT...WHICH HAS FORMED A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ...JUST NOW ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTH OF MOREHEAD CITY INTO THE OUTER BANKS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS DO OCCUR...SHEAR PROFILES IN WARM SECTOR WITH CAPE TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 11/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... 34297789 35097786 35697700 36167638 36427581 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 13:04:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 08:04:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511221303.jAMD32lA024591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221301 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-221800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2453 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/FAR WRN MA...VT...NH...WRN/NRN ME CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 221301Z - 221800Z HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN ADIRONDACK AND CATSKILL MTNS OF ERN NY THROUGH 16Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALLING FROM 2000 FT TO AROUND 5O0 FT BY 18Z. FURTHER EAST...HEAVY SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER VT/NRN NH AND THE BERKSHIRE MTNS OF FAR NWRN MA BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 1000 FT IN WRN VT/FAR NWRN MA BY 18Z. TOTAL DURATION OF HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN 4 HRS IN THE CATSKILL MTNS...BUT COULD BE FROM 6-8 HRS IN THE ADIRONDACK...WHITE/GREEN AND BERKSHIRE MTNS. HVY SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS /ABOVE 1500 FT/ OF NRN/WRN ME. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY GREATER THAN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM AND UPPER LOW CENTERED IN SERN VA NNEWD INTO NRN VT. MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS ZONE...ALLOWING FOR A FOCUSED 30-50 MILE WIDE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION PER RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. CURRENT SNOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION WERE AROUND 2500 FT BASED ON 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z REGIONAL SFC OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z CAR AND ALB SOUNDINGS. TWO FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER SNOW ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OH NEWD TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AT 12Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ESEWD AROUND 20 KTS...BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. THUS...DYNAMIC COOLING EFFECTS ALOFT WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR ALLOWING FOR SNOW LEVELS TO GRADUALLY FALL THIS MORNING. WITH TIME...AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE DRAMATIC LOWERING IN SNOW LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OVER SRN NJ WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE MID LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER ERN NY AND WRN/NRN VT. ADDITIONALLY...A GRADUAL REORIENTATION TO NORTH-SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE THE LONGEST DURATION /6-8 HRS/ OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE IN A NARROW ZONE /50 MILES WIDE/ OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN VT/FAR NWRN MA AND ECENTRAL NY THROUGH 19Z. ..CROSBIE.. 11/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 47416920 46706930 45716972 44437079 43407201 42297316 42097417 42107523 42427568 43097520 44017432 44617385 45077337 45097157 45957025 46776992 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 18:22:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 13:22:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511221821.jAMILZvr012279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221821 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221820 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-222245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NY / VT AND WRN NH / WRN MA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 221820Z - 222245Z SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-19Z...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH 23Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.50-1.00 IN/HR ARE LIKELY. TROPOSPHERIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON BACKSIDE OF LOW AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD...WITH N-S BAND OF DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETTING UP OVER VT. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION/BACKING SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG THE ERN CHAMPLAIN AND HUDSON VALLEYS AND INTO VT AND WRN MA...WHERE RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BETWEEN 18-19Z. RADAR TRENDS AS OF 18Z INDICATE 0.10-0.25 IN/HR LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES ARE POSSIBLE...SUPPORTING 1 IN/HR WET SNOW RATES. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER AND SNOW WILL BE MOST PROLONGED. ..JEWELL.. 11/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 45047142 43217218 42107312 42157353 43577386 45007376 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 06:58:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 01:58:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511240656.jAO6uoIp017386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240655 MIZ000-WIZ000-241300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2456 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI/NW LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 240655Z - 241300Z ...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADDITION TO 20-40 MPH WINDS... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE NUMEROUS BANDS OF SNOW...NONE OF WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS POINT. VAD WIND DATA FROM MARQUETTE AND UPPER AIR DATA FROM GREEN BAY INDICATE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NNWLY WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO 10-12K FEET BY 12Z. GIVEN CONTINUED STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES...ONE OR TWO PLUMES MAY FORM WITH A FAVORABLE NW FETCH FROM NRN LAKE MI. IF THAT HAPPENS VERY HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE POSSIBLE...FROM 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. LAKE RELATIVE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...SO THUNDER SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. ..TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB... 45308725 46178885 47488857 47578755 46508494 44968327 43828337 43288470 43278626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 12:39:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 07:39:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511241238.jAOCcQxo017074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241237 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-241830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2457 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AND NCNTRL OH NEAR LAKE ERIE...NW INTO NCNTRL PA...WRN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241237Z - 241830Z ...SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN OH NEAR LAKE ERIE INTO WRN NY... LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE INCREASED ALONG SRN LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME WRN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO NW PA AND WRN NY. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM WARM LAKE ERIE TEMPS /7-9 DEGREES C/ PER LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPS AT 850MB AND ABOVE. VAD WIND DATA FROM CLEVELAND SHOW A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY WITH TIME...FETCH WILL IMPROVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ELONGATED CONVECTIVE PLUMES TO DEVELOP WITH SNOW RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE FROM THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA EWD ACROSS LAKE/ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING COUNTIES INLAND. PRESENCE OF DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOWBANDS. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS WILL ALSO FORM ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER TODAY. ..TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 40558208 41548220 42258093 43307876 43247760 41907750 40887829 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 12:41:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 07:41:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511241239.jAOCds8u017638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241238 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-241845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2458 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN UP OF MI...WRN/CNTRL LOWER MI INTO NRN IND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 241238Z - 241845Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CAPABLE OF 2-3 INCH/HOUR RATES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CNTRL UP OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI WITH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE BAND CURRENTLY FROM APPROXIMATELY 65 NE MQT TO 20 SSE OF HTL. HERE...A FAIRLY LONG FETCH HAS PERSISTED FROM N-CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE MI WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA COUPLED WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 6-9 C ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INDEED...INSPECTION OF 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION HEIGHT OF AROUND 3 KM AGL WITH A 0-3 KM LAPSE RATE OF 8.5 C/KM. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLY LONG FETCH...OPTIMUM INVERSION HEIGHT/ CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DOMINANT SINGLE BANDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN UP INTO NRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. FARTHER TO THE S...SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER CBL DEPTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COMPARATIVELY SHORTER FETCH SUGGEST THAT SNOW BANDS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS...BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN THOSE TO THE N. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER FAR SWRN LOWER MI INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL IND WHERE A SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH/PARCEL MODIFICATION MAY RESULT IN BETTER BAND ORGANIZATION. ..MEAD.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB... 41668654 43008686 45358730 46828796 47208720 47228591 45218447 43178445 41988488 41398533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 12:41:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 07:41:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511241239.jAOCdxmP017670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241237 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-241830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2457 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AND NCNTRL OH NEAR LAKE ERIE...NW INTO NCNTRL PA...WRN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241237Z - 241830Z ...SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN OH NEAR LAKE ERIE INTO WRN NY... LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE INCREASED ALONG SRN LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME WRN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO NW PA AND WRN NY. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM WARM LAKE ERIE TEMPS /7-9 DEGREES C/ PER LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPS AT 850MB AND ABOVE. VAD WIND DATA FROM CLEVELAND SHOW A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY WITH TIME...FETCH WILL IMPROVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ELONGATED CONVECTIVE PLUMES TO DEVELOP WITH SNOW RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE FROM THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA EWD ACROSS LAKE/ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING COUNTIES INLAND. PRESENCE OF DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOWBANDS. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS WILL ALSO FORM ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER TODAY. ..TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 40558208 41548220 42258093 43307876 43247760 41907750 40887829  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 12:42:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 07:42:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511241241.jAOCfF89018083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241238 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-241845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2458 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN UP OF MI...WRN/CNTRL LOWER MI INTO NRN IND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 241238Z - 241845Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CAPABLE OF 2-3 INCH/HOUR RATES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CNTRL UP OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI WITH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE BAND CURRENTLY FROM APPROXIMATELY 65 NE MQT TO 20 SSE OF HTL. HERE...A FAIRLY LONG FETCH HAS PERSISTED FROM N-CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE MI WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA COUPLED WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 6-9 C ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INDEED...INSPECTION OF 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION HEIGHT OF AROUND 3 KM AGL WITH A 0-3 KM LAPSE RATE OF 8.5 C/KM. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLY LONG FETCH...OPTIMUM INVERSION HEIGHT/ CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DOMINANT SINGLE BANDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN UP INTO NRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. FARTHER TO THE S...SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER CBL DEPTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COMPARATIVELY SHORTER FETCH SUGGEST THAT SNOW BANDS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS...BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN THOSE TO THE N. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER FAR SWRN LOWER MI INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL IND WHERE A SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH/PARCEL MODIFICATION MAY RESULT IN BETTER BAND ORGANIZATION. ..MEAD.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB... 41668654 43008686 45358730 46828796 47208720 47228591 45218447 43178445 41988488 41398533  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 16:30:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 11:30:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511241628.jAOGSnZ5025824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241627 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2459 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241627Z - 242030Z HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD FROM MA...EXTREME S-CENTRAL NY AND SRN PORTIONS VT/NH THROUGH 21Z. 2 INCH/HOUR RATES SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN 75-90 NM S OF CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS VT/NH AND NWRN MAINE. RATES LOCALLY MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES/HOUR...PARTICULARLY OVER S FACING SLOPES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT INTERCEPT OPTIMAL OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AMIDST 35-50 KT LLJ. HEAVY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OVER ERN NY...WRN/CENTRAL MA...SRN VT AND INLAND PORTIONS CT/RI DURING PERIOD. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER ERN MA INVOF BOS...MARINE FRONT NEWD ALONG COAST TO NWRN BAY OF FUNDY AND INTO SERN NEW BRUNSWICK...SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT SSEWD PAST CAPE COD OVER ATLANTIC...AND QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS SRN CT INTO SERN NY. SFC FREEZE LINE IS PACKED WITHIN COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES OF MAINE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF SFC CYCLONE. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER MOST OF VT...CENTRAL/NRN NH AND NWRN MAINE WILL REMAIN SUBFREEZING...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT IN LOW LEVELS. EXPECT INTENSE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME -- NOW EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP -- AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE NW-NE OF SFC LOW AS LOW SHIFTS NEWD ALONG COASTAL FRONT. VEERING OF 850 MB FLOW WITH TIME WILL INDICATE SHIFT OF STRONGEST LIFT AND HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL EWD FROM VT INTO NWRN MAINE...WHILE STRONG ISENTROPIC AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOW THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 46517000 46286930 45666861 45006847 44736914 44506975 44187039 43497125 43317152 43597228 44097288 44787302 45017300 45007151 45137142 45227142 45307125 45247116 45357098 45217087 45387079 45427080 45427075 45387063 45427063 45487072 45607062 45737036 45807040 45927024 45957023 45977032 46077030 46147023 46217027 46357021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 17:16:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 12:16:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511241714.jAOHExOA016906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241714 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-WIZ000-242315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2460 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY CONCERNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRENDS VALID 241714Z - 242315Z HVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH HVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER SWRN MI. FARTHER SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MOSTLY SHOWERY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA...WITH HEAVIEST INTO FAR SWRN NY DURING THE DAY...BUT ALSO INCREASING OVER NWRN PA LATE. IN ADDITION...ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FROM LAKE HURON EWD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARDS 00Z. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD WITH MOST RAPID COOLING NOW COMING INTO LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO AREAS. WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR HVY SNOW OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA...WIND FIELDS ARE DIVERGENT AT MIDDAY...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR DISORGANIZATION AND SHOWERS. SIMILAR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FARTHER N INTO THE BUFFALO AREA BUT WILL BE HEAVIER DUE TO LONG EFFECTIVE MOIST FETCH OVER LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO. THIS ENTIRE REGION SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE ORIENTED ALONG LONG AXIS OF LOWER LAKES...AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF HVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ONTARIO NEAR 00Z AFFECTING OSWEGO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES IN NY. INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...ORGANIZED BANDS WILL PERSIST OVER NRN LOWER AND CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DESPITE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE E SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS. ..JEWELL.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB... 41018097 41517898 42097789 42387630 43357535 44317556 44178075 44868310 46398493 47168594 46828754 46228766 44388649 43468646 42398642 42178593 41958531 42908504 43208505 43808495 43308370 42878107 42528062 42198166 41608249 41258224 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 01:11:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 20:11:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511250109.jAP19dnY011365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250108 NYZ000-250715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2461 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE ONTARIO VICINITY IN NWRN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 250108Z - 250715Z HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY INTENSIFY AS WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN SURFACE FLOW OF 20-40 KTS COMING OFF THE LAKE. DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS FORMED OVER LAKE ONTARIO...IN PART DUE TO LONG EFFECTIVE FETCH EXTENDING WWD ACROSS LAKE HURON. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARDS GEORGIAN BAY. RUC MODEL INDICATES LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK A BIT AS THIS TROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW APPROACH...WHICH APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AS RADAR SHOWS MAIN BAND LIFTING NWD ACROSS OSWEGO INTO SRN JEFFERSON COUNTIES AS OF 01Z. AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED. DIURNAL LAND BREEZE SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT AS WELL...SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD AFFECTING PRIMARILY JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER 06Z...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH MAY BRING THE BAND BACK S PREDOMINATELY INTO OSWEGO AND SRN LEWIS COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44307624 44337586 44317573 44057520 43737512 43417514 43357562 43417617 43447652 43547769 43697824 43957802 44187679 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 02:45:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 21:45:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511250243.jAP2hes7001127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250242 NYZ000-PAZ000-250845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2462 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0842 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NY AND EXTREME NWRN PA NEAR LAKE ERIE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 250242Z - 250845Z SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS FAR WRN NY AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NWRN PA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SURFACE FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN LARGELY DIVERGENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM FORMING DESPITE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. INDEED...00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -30 C WITH 41 KT 0-1 KM MEAN WIND. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.06 IN. ALTHOUGH COLD POCKET ALOFT DOES SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING...IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. BOTH RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL BE THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE THAT WILL OCCUR AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF SRN ONTARIO. THIS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL LAND BREEZE EFFECTS...WILL LIKELY HELP TO CONCENTRATE AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE ERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO NY AREA. ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE... 42028041 41868019 41817960 41897899 42197799 42437783 42697783 42797808 42747909 42747966 42268025 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 06:44:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 01:44:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511250643.jAP6hIG9009859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250642 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250642 IDZ000-WAZ000-ORZ000-251245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL ORE/ERN WA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 250642Z - 251245Z ...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AREAS OF FZRA... A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE OR SFC FRONT. INSPECTION OF THE 25/00Z SOUNDING FROM SPOKANE INDICATES AN INVERSION...WITH A WARM LAYER ABOVE 850MB AND A SHALLOW COLD LAYER NEAR THE SFC WHERE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE INVERSION. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW AN INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM LINCOLN CO SWD TO UMATILLA CO IN NE ORE. THIS MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF FZRA TO AREAS NEAR AND S OF SPOKANE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ADDITIONAL PCPN IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SFC WET BULB ZERO TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN WA AND PORTIONS OF NCNTRL ORE...AND SFC TEMPS WILL FALL TO 32F OR BELOW ONCE PCPN BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/ETAKF SUGGEST FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE SATURATION OCCURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS /ABOVE 2000 FEET/ WILL HAVE SNOW. ..TAYLOR.. 11/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT... 45901845 44311962 44372167 46622105 47892010 48251771 48001700 46211702 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 04:52:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 23:52:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511260451.jAQ4pJF9009468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260450 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260450 TXZ000-260645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2466 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260450Z - 260645Z ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SCNTRL TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN SOUTHWEST TX. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD INTO SCNTRL TX...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. AT THE SFC...ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR DEL RIO EXTENDING EWD TO THE HOUSTON AREA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 60S F WHICH IS HELPING TO RAISE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...88D VAD WIND PROFILES AROUND SAN ANTONIO SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MOST OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELL. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 11/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 27209821 27249895 27499948 27969954 28659952 29779932 30079814 29689730 28279744 27419774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 16:07:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 11:07:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511261606.jAQG6FN8005177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261605 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261605 LAZ000-TXZ000-261830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2467 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SE TX...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261605Z - 261830Z SLGT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN GLS-LFT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OFFSHORE PORT MANSFIELD TX. COMBINED FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY EXTENDS NEWD TOWARD GLS...THEN MARINE/WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED JUST OFFSHORE FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY EWD ACROSS COASTAL WATERS CAMERON/VERMILION/ST MARY/IBERIA PARISHES. LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS ALONG AND BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AFTERNOON. MARINE FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NWD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY MOVE ONSHORE BRIEFLY BEFORE LEADING EDGE OF MCS MOVES THROUGH. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY ALONG AND S OF MARINE FRONT GIVEN AND DEW POINTS MID 60S NOW OBSERVED IN THAT AIR MASS...AND COMBINED WAA/INSOLATION RELATED HEATING OF SFC TEMPS INTO LOW 70S. STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING/ASCENT REMAINS ALONG/BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SO LAPSE RATES OVER MARINE AIR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK....LIMITING MLCAPES UNDER 750 J/KG MOST AREAS. PARCELS N OF WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BECAUSE OF PRONOUNCED STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC...KEEPING SEVERE POTENTIAL LARGELY ALONG/S OF FRONT. DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR -- NOW OPTIMIZED ACROSS UPPER TX COAST PER VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC ANALYSES -- WILL INCREASE WITH TIME FARTHER E ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA AS MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION APCHS. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPH SIZE IS LIMITED BY LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN LOW LEVELS...CELLS MAY ROTATE. SUSTAINED SUPERCELL PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER FOR TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM GULF THAN EWD IN MCS BECAUSE OF SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE MODE. ..EDWARDS.. 11/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 28339545 29049506 29689460 30009391 29929233 29729162 29479147 29319163 29169204 29059304 28789396 28149486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 20:27:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 15:27:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511262026.jAQKQINh022624@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262025 LAZ000-MSZ000-262230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA -- PRIMARILY S OF I-10 CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 874... VALID 262025Z - 262230Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS LINE AT 20Z EXTENDED FROM LCH AREA TO APPROXIMATELY 90 NM S OF COASTAL CENTRAL CAMERON PARISH...THEN SWWD OFFSHORE UPPER TX COAST. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS COASTAL PARISHES. BRIEF TORNADOES AND STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS AND ACCOMPANYING MESOCYCLONES. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG I-10 FROM NW ARA TO NEAR MSY. SFC TEMPS MID-UPPER 70S AND MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO ITS S WILL OFFSET WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD 250-750 J/KG MLCAPES OVER LAND. EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE DRIFTING N ACROSS SERN LA AND COASTAL MS AREAS DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPREADING MARGINAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY INLAND. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN BOUNDARY LAYER S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND -- PRIMARILY OVER GULF...THEN MOVING NNEWD ONSHORE. 0-1 KM SRH 300-350 J/KG IS EVIDENT OVER COASTAL AREAS OF LA BETWEEN MCS BAND AND HUM...AIDED BY BACKED FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS SERN LA...THEY SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED KINEMATIC GRADIENT ENHANCEMENTS APCH AREA. THEREFORE PORTIONS SERN LA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 11/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29439293 29909302 30129319 30289224 30559074 30288980 30078922 28888922 29169204 28869305 29039300 29219297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 02:16:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 21:16:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511270215.jAR2FddW012062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270211 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-270415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2469 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA THROUGH COASTAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270211Z - 270415Z A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST/TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER SERN LA AND SPREADING INTO COASTAL MS. THE THREAT/COVERAGE APPEARS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE A WW IS UNLIKELY. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS SERN LA IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ORLEANS. THE LINE IS MOVING ENEWD AROUND 20 KT. EAST OF THE LINE A FEW STORMS WITH MORE DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS CONTINUE LIFTING NWD. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE N OF A WARM FRONT WHERE A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER EXISTS. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN VERY STRONG ALONG THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE PROBABLY NOT REALIZING THE SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STABLE LAYER. MOREOVER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN LIMITED. STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE BASED TO SUPPORT A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. ..DIAL.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... 29779006 30359002 30798926 30658842 29898830 29738886 29288974 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 08:20:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 03:20:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511270819.jAR8J28S008454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270818 WIZ000-MNZ000-271215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2470 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL MN INTO PARTS OF NWRN-NRN WI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 270818Z - 271215Z FREEZING RAIN..WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH/HOUR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 09-11Z FROM S-N ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN WI. DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LONGER DURATIONS OF FREEZING SHOULD BE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WRN MN...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TO RISE ABOVE 32 F. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. RAPID AND WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN WI TO SERN MN AND NWRN IA SINCE 06Z IS INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION. SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL/NRN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE REACHING VALUES ABOVE 32 F AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO 12Z...STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ABOVE THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN AS PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS NWD. ..PETERS.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 44659630 45479636 45949597 46089336 46149185 46058988 45818882 45248874 44958912 44488997 44519204 44579392 44409591 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 08:26:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 03:26:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511270824.jAR8OpHv010777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270823 COR WIZ000-MNZ000-271215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2470 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN WI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 270823Z - 271215Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED FREEZING RAIN..WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH/HOUR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 09-11Z FROM S-N ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN WI. DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LONGER DURATIONS OF FREEZING SHOULD BE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WRN MN...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TO RISE ABOVE 32 F. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. RAPID AND WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN WI TO SERN MN AND NWRN IA SINCE 06Z IS INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION. SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL/NRN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE REACHING VALUES ABOVE 32 F AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO 12Z...STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ABOVE THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN AS PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS NWD. ..PETERS.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 44659630 45479636 45949597 46089336 46149185 46058988 45818882 45248874 44958912 44488997 44519204 44579392 44409591 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 09:37:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 04:37:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511270936.jAR9a2L9031056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270932 FLZ000-ALZ000-271130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2471 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270932Z - 271130Z THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 12-13Z...IF STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE FOR TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. AT 0915Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SWRN AL...TO THE NORTH OF MOB...SWD TO OFFSHORE NEAR 65 ESE BVE. RADAR DATA SHOWED SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COUPLETS EMBEDDED ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS...WITH LINE MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS TRACKING NEWD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATED A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER INLAND REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SUGGESTING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS SHOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE WHERE THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO INGEST A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING NEAR MOB AND OFFSHORE MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THIS SCENARIO. IF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CAN MOVE ONSHORE OR NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN THERE WOULD BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH NWD EXTENT AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 30278772 30588768 30688741 30768696 30698639 30368633 30098636 29968648 30138753  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 18:01:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 13:01:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511271759.jARHxaWl025937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271758 OKZ000-KSZ000-272000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2472 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CENTRAL AND SERN KS INTO N CENTRAL AND NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271758Z - 272000Z WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FROM PARTS OF THE NERN QUARTER OF OK INTO SERN KS FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF P28 CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS STRONG DYNAMICS MOVE INTO W TX INTO WRN OK. AT 16Z...SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THRU JUST SW OF ICT...PNC...BETWEEN OKC AND SNL TO GLE. VERY STRONG SWLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE DRYLINE INDICATES DRYLINE BULGE WILL PRESS NEWD TOWARDS THE TUL AREA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING NWD AROUND CNU. VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION AS SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AT 45-50 KT AND EXIT REGION OF MID/UPR LEVEL JET OF 115 KT/150 KT RESPECTIVELY...IS NOW INTO SWRN OK. THUS...STRONG DYNAMICS/FRONTAL LIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE ENHANCED ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF ADVANCING DRYLINE BULGE FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BROKEN SQUALL LINE. GIVEN AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE LAYER HELICITY NEAR 250 M2/S2 OVER NERN OK AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4...ISOLATED SHALLOW SUPERCELLS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 35629700 35859700 36139699 36719712 37099731 37329754 37719761 38039686 38149631 37999572 37549525 36949501 36219508 35869522 35449563 35299593 35289634 35319660 35439683 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 19:40:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 14:40:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511271938.jARJccLb015184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271937 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-272330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2473 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/SW NEB CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 271937Z - 272330Z A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WRN KS/SW NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 1 IN/HR SNOW RATES DEVELOPING AMIDST BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEPENING 985 MB SFC LOW AT 19Z. ON NW PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /600-800 MB/ IN PROXIMITY OF WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /INCLUDING PLENTIFUL CG LIGHTNING CNTRL KS INTO SCNTRL NEB/ WILL LEAD TO EWD TRANSITION OF WELL ORGANIZED DEFORMATION SNOW BAND ACROSS SW NEB/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE AKRON CO/GOODLAND KS AREAS AS OF 18Z-19Z. SIMILAR TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...RUC PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGESTS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS REMAINDER OF NW KS/SW NEB THIS AFTERNOON. ONSET OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE IN LOCALES ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...INCLUDING THE MCCOOK NEB/HILL CITY KS AREAS. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING SNOW RATES...RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER AND GOODLAND WSR-88D VAD DATA ALREADY DEPICTING N/NE WINDS OF 50 KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /750M-2 KM LAYER/...A TREND THE 18Z RUC SUGGESTS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 60+ KTS BY 00Z. THESE INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. ..GUYER.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU... 38770208 39260221 40120222 40790189 41210100 41080029 40519984 39799972 38979961 38649990 38320038 38150086 38380174 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 19:51:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 14:51:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511271949.jARJne3J020214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271948 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-272145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2474 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN TX INTO WRN AR AND NWRN LA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271948Z - 272145Z WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY VERIFIES STRONG ASCENT NOW OCCURRING AHEAD OF SURFACE DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS SWD FROM CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX. THERE IS A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS FROM SWRN AR INTO NERN TX WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT AXIS COINCIDING WITH 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS NEWD FROM MAF - S CENTRAL OK ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 100-115 KT MID LEVEL JET. THUS...STRONG JET COUPLING...IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT OVER THIS REGION. AIR MASS IS ALSO DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH CORRESPONDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. EXPECT LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ROUGHLY E CENTRAL OK SWD/SWWD INTO NERN TX IN AREA OF STRONG CONVERGENCE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITHIN/AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES FROM ERN OK/NERN TX INTO WRN AR/NWRN LA. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32599635 33429604 34269584 34929584 35619588 35889592 36309562 36369470 36189369 35579360 34839346 34269346 33599357 32899387 32279451 31709558 31429673 31689680 32099655 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 20:26:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 15:26:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511272024.jARKOasG003788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272023 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-280100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2475 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/FAR SE ND CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 272023Z - 280100Z FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN SD/FAR SE ND THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND 0.05-0.10 IN/HR LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENTS. STEADY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING NWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING KS CYCLONE. COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS ERN SD AND SE ND WEST OF STATIONARY FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH...WITH 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MAINTENENCE OF ELEVATED MELTING LAYER /AROUND 850 MB/ INTO THIS EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...FREEZING RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE ABERDEEN/HURON/MITCHELL SD AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...18Z RUC/09Z SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH APPRECIABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING APPEARS TO BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-29...AND NORTH OF I-90 IN SD. ..GUYER.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44109964 44909953 45649887 46059832 46249768 46249722 46169676 45669653 45019682 44499719 43869762 43589863 43629919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 20:53:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 15:53:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511272051.jARKpdiH017828@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272050 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-272245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2476 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND NERN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 875... VALID 272050Z - 272245Z AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WRN INTO CENTRAL MO. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NNEWD THRU CENTRAL KS. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OF 2.0 TO 3.0 MB/2 HRS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO AS COLD FRONT/SURFACE DRYLINE MOVES NEWD INTO THIS AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS ACROSS MARION... MORRIS AND DICKENSON COUNTIES IN KS JUST E OF THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT. STRONG FORCING IS APPARENT WITH 40-50 KT SWLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE DRYLINE ENHANCING ASCENT IS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR POSING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT... 36489612 36929637 37389675 37709710 38679794 39169759 39359720 39929586 40259499 40179301 39099227 37969220 37299202 36539201 36459359 36439464 36489554 36429598 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 21:31:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 16:31:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511272130.jARLUAZe004442@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272129 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-272330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2477 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NEB/SW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272129Z - 272330Z AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP NWD INTO FAR SE NEB/SW IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL/ISOLD TORNADOES AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. ON FRINGE OF SURGING DRY SLOT...BROKEN BAND OF MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH HISTORY OF TORNADOES/ISOLD LARGE HAIL CONTINUES TO SPREAD E/NE ACROSS ERN KS AT MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE RATHER MARGINAL ACROSS FAR SE NEB/SW IA...ESPECIALLY THE CASE WITH NWD EXTENT...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OWING TO DRY SLOT MAY ALLOW AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT TO BREACH EXISTING KS/MO TORNADO WATCHES INTO FAR SE NEB/SW IA. LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...WITH ISOLD TORNADO POSSIBILITIES ATTRIBUTABLE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. QUESTIONABLE AIRMASS QUALITY WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE NECESSITY FOR A WATCH NWD INTO FAR SE NEB/SW IA AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR. ..GUYER.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40099652 40819661 41619564 41539421 41149308 40699305 40659515 40109573 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 22:42:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 17:42:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511272241.jARMf23j015386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272239 MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2478 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR THROUGH SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272239Z - 280015Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN AR AND SERN MO THIS EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LINE OF DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH CNTRL AR. THIS LINE WILL APPROACH THE ERN PART OF WW 876 BY 00Z. INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE LIMITED WITH ERN EXTENT INTO ERN AR AND SERN MO. HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. A 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...MAINTAINING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF... 33389243 35329235 37539066 36938940 34529051 33219177 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 23:10:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 18:10:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511272308.jARN8gpb001100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272307 ARZ000-TXZ000-280100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2479 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 876... VALID 272307Z - 280100Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MID EVENING. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM W CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL AR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. EARLY THIS EVENING A LINE OF DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EXTENDS FROM POPE COUNTY SWWD THROUGH HOWARD COUNTY IN W CNTRL AR. THE LINE IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE NE AT 30 TO 35 KT. OTHER SEVERE STORMS EXTEND SWWD INTO NERN TX. THE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL AR. THIS REGION IS WITHIN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET THAT IS ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS MOVE THROUGH W CNTRL AND CNTRL AR NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... 33539432 34369422 36059285 35929193 34489237 33349353 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 00:01:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 19:01:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511272359.jARNxe4P028248@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272358 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-280130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN KS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 875...877... VALID 272358Z - 280130Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING INITIALLY OVER WRN MO AND EXTREME NE KS...SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADING INTO CNTRL MO. EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN N CNTRL KS EWD THROUGH NRN MO. DRY LINE HAS SURGED EWD AND EXTENDS FROM NERN KS SWWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN KS. AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS WRN MO. STORMS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS SWRN MO. OTHER SEVERE STORMS PERSIST OVER NWRN MO. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH LEWP/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES. INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MO AND OVER THE ERN PART OF WW 877. HOWEVER...STRONG ASCENT AND COOLING ALOFT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE 100+ KT UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. ..DIAL.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP... 36529406 38189434 39079494 39679572 40499512 40209303 38769165 36949136 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 01:06:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 20:06:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280105.jAS15D7E002260@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280103 SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-280500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS INTO CNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL/SE SD CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 280103Z - 280500Z BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS NW KS/WCNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR AMIDST VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM NCNTRL NEB INTO SE SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY/OBJECTIVE DIAGNOSTICS DEPICT INTENSE CNTRL PLAINS LOW BECOMING CLOSED/VERTICALLY STACKED THIS EVENING...WITH 984 MB SFC REFLECTION ACROSS CNTRL KS AT 01Z. AS THIS CYCLONE FURTHER DEEPENS THIS EVENING...SNOW BAND WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ORGANIZED ACROSS NW KS/CNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD...ORIENTED PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /600-800 MB/ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PER 21Z RUC/18Z NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...AMPLE UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONSENSUS OF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS NCNTRL NEB INTO SE SD...AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER. NORTH PLATTE/GOODLAND WSR-88D VAD DATA IN CONJUNCTION RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER DATA SAMPLING 50-60 KT N/NW WINDS IN 0.5-2.0 KM LAYER EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THIS BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE /HIGHLIGHTED BY 50+ KT SFC GUSTS AT GOODLAND/. 21Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THESE VERY STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CORRIDOR OF N/NW 850MB WINDS OF 60-65 KTS ACROSS WCNTRL NEB/NW KS COINCIDENT WITH HIGHEST SNOW RATES. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD... 43919983 43279745 41669757 39729935 39119977 39040064 39310123 39960174 41400161 43190134 43780090 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 01:55:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 20:55:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280153.jAS1rTKn030607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280152 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-280615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2482 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SE ND/NW MN CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 280152Z - 280615Z FREEZING RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 0.05-0.10 HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENTS AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM ERN SD INTO SE ND/NW MN...ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM HURON SD TO FARGO ND/DETROIT LAKES MN. LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO MUCH OF MN/ERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON PERIPHERY OF DEEP CNTRL PLAINS CYCLONE. WHERE THIS MOIST AXIS INTERCEPTS A SUFFICIENTLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/WEST OF INVERTED TROUGH...FREEZING RAIN HAS PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH OF ECNTRL/NE SD SINCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS/ POWER OUTAGES REPORTED. A SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ACROSS SE ND INTO FAR WCNTRL MN/NW MN. IN THIS CORRIDOR...00Z RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AN ELEVATED 850 MB WARM/MELTING LAYER OVERSPREADING THE SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SCENARIO IS FURTHER AFFIRMED BY LATEST 21Z SREF PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48399503 48099406 46599571 45499615 44919627 44359680 43879737 43819861 44029921 44749920 45689875 46649793 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 02:12:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 21:12:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280210.jAS2Ab9f009168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280209 ILZ000-MOZ000-280415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2483 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO THROUGH EXTREME WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280209Z - 280415Z ERN MO THROUGH WRN IL IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. STORMS CONTINUE FROM E CNTRL MO SWD INTO SERN MO. STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IN SHANNON AND TEXAS COUNTIES MOVING NEWD AT 30 KT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF WW 877 AFTER 03Z. INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED OVER ERN MO INTO WRN IL. HOWEVER...A 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EWD AS FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET SPREADS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG FORCING MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO DESTABILIZE EWD OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX... 37968986 37449100 39259198 40179220 40149093 38708974 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 02:47:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 21:47:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280245.jAS2jew5029123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280244 KYZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2484 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0844 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN AR...NWRN LA...W TN...WRN KY AND NWRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 876...879... VALID 280244Z - 280415Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AR...NERN TX AND NWRN LA WITH THE BEST THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AR. STORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT WRN TN...WRN KY AND NWRN MS LATER THIS EVENING... AND THESE AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AR MOVING EAST AT AROUND 20 KT. MANY STORMS WITHIN THE LINE HAVE CONSOLIDATED WITH LESS DISCRETE STRUCTURES THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS STILL PERSIST. ACTIVITY EXISTS WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE VERY LARGE WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE. FARTHER EAST...NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN AR WITHIN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER IN THIS REGION...AND VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING WAS INDICATED. HOWEVER...WITH TIME SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...THESE STORMS MAY TAKE LONGER TO BECOME ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG... 34069064 36948910 36818803 35418854 34158939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 05:23:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 00:23:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280522.jAS5MN4e018697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280521 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280521 ILZ000-MOZ000-280645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO THROUGH WRN AND SRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 880... VALID 280521Z - 280645Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO PERSIST ACROSS ERN MO INTO WRN IL. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO IL. ANOTHER WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS SPREADING THROUGH ERN MO INTO EXTREME WRN IL. SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE WITHIN THIS AREA OF STORMS. THE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH OBSERVED SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED. WHILE THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE SEVERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS AT THE SURFACE OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...IT COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. A STRONG 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THE ACCOMPANYING THETA-E ADVECTION SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE NEWD WITH TIME. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX... 37279096 39239123 39799079 39758931 38848882 37448921 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 06:45:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 01:45:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280644.jAS6iKOS018912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280643 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280643 TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-280745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2486 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SERN MO...WRN TN...NWRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 879... VALID 280643Z - 280745Z THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NEWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY ATTM...THIS INCLUDES THE MEM AREA. WW 879 CAN BE CLEARED IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE WATCH. VWP DATA INDICATES EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WITH BLM PROFILER INDICATING 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 550 M2/S2 AND 60 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE DISCRETE NATURE AND THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ROTATION COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER CORES... ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH ANY DISCRETE CORE...DESPITE LATEST CG LIGHTNING AND IR CLOUD TOP IMAGES SUGGESTING A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND TO BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. ..EVANS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33909093 36029065 37009035 37218926 36768892 33868989 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 07:33:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 02:33:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280732.jAS7WAhN015516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280731 FLZ000-ALZ000-280900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280731Z - 280900Z TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF CONVECTION CONTINUES INTENSIFYING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN THE LAST HOUR ALONG AND JUST OFF THE SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST WITHIN BROAD REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WAA. AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT DIMINISHING CAP...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THIS GENERAL REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BOTH RUC AND NAM GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THEREFORE...WW BEING CONSIDERED ATTM. ..EVANS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30288821 31938846 31868518 29768506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 07:38:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 02:38:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280736.jAS7aqXK017105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280735 MEZ000-NHZ000-281130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2488 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MAINE CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 280735Z - 281130Z PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES AT OR EXCEEDING 0.05 INCHES PER 3 HR EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS SWRN AND SRN ME... INLAND OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AND NRN ME EXPECTED TO START AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET...THEN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND NWRN ME BY 10-12Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES SHOULD BE AROUND 0.05 INCHES PER 3 HR TIME FRAME. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF ME...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. 05Z RUC SHOWED THIS SUB-FREEZING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH 12-14Z...AS STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAINTAINS A WARM LAYER ATOP THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 05Z RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THE INITIAL DRY AIR LOCATED IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS PER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WILL SATURATE OVERNIGHT...GIVEN MOISTENING PROCESSES EXPECTED THROUGH UVVS AND ADVECTION. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER SRN ME FROM OXFORD TO YORK COUNTIES SEWD TO INLAND PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST ME SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. FARTHER N INTO CENTRAL AND NRN ME...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO SATURATE WHICH SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SNOW/SLEET MIX. MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL/NWRN ME IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BY 12-14Z. ..PETERS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45196741 44676858 44186982 43997030 44137083 44687103 45317104 46277023 47216966 47516916 47416817 47046759 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 07:39:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 02:39:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280738.jAS7cFuv017875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280731 FLZ000-ALZ000-280900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280731Z - 280900Z TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF CONVECTION CONTINUES INTENSIFYING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN THE LAST HOUR ALONG AND JUST OFF THE SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST WITHIN BROAD REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WAA. AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT DIMINISHING CAP...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THIS GENERAL REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BOTH RUC AND NAM GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THEREFORE...WW BEING CONSIDERED ATTM. ..EVANS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30288821 31938846 31868518 29768506  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 07:43:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 02:43:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280742.jAS7g3uo019009@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280735 MEZ000-NHZ000-281130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2488 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MAINE CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 280735Z - 281130Z PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES AT OR EXCEEDING 0.05 INCHES PER 3 HR EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS SWRN AND SRN ME... INLAND OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AND NRN ME EXPECTED TO START AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET...THEN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND NWRN ME BY 10-12Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES SHOULD BE AROUND 0.05 INCHES PER 3 HR TIME FRAME. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF ME...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. 05Z RUC SHOWED THIS SUB-FREEZING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH 12-14Z...AS STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAINTAINS A WARM LAYER ATOP THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 05Z RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THE INITIAL DRY AIR LOCATED IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS PER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WILL SATURATE OVERNIGHT...GIVEN MOISTENING PROCESSES EXPECTED THROUGH UVVS AND ADVECTION. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER SRN ME FROM OXFORD TO YORK COUNTIES SEWD TO INLAND PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST ME SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. FARTHER N INTO CENTRAL AND NRN ME...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO SATURATE WHICH SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SNOW/SLEET MIX. MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL/NWRN ME IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BY 12-14Z. ..PETERS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45196741 44676858 44186982 43997030 44137083 44687103 45317104 46277023 47216966 47516916 47416817 47046759  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 08:43:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 03:43:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280841.jAS8fXOX006355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280840 MSZ000-LAZ000-281015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA AND PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 882... VALID 280840Z - 281015Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS NERN LA INTO WRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS. REGIONAL RADARS AT 0830Z INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...PER NUMEROUS SHEAR COUPLETS...EXTENDING FROM SUNFLOWER COUNTY MS SSWWD TO FAR NERN LA. DESPITE MUCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MS. 0-3 KM SRH VALUES REMAIN VERY STRONG AT 300-550 M2/S2...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31349212 31839169 32709123 33829068 33808871 31348981 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 09:30:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 04:30:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280929.jAS9TKVl031992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280928 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-281030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2490 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 881... VALID 280928Z - 281030Z DESPITE A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 881. AT 09Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 250 J/KG/ ACROSS WW 881. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A MARKED DECREASE IN CG LIGHTNING SINCE ABOUT 08Z FROM SRN IL TO NRN MS...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF THE DECREASING INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING ALOFT SHIFTING NEWD INTO IL AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN INSTABILITY/LIGHTNING GENERATION...DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SRH VALUES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS WW 881. INDIVIDUAL EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS...WITH SHEAR COUPLETS...ARE MOVING NNE AT 50-60 KT ACROSS SRN IL AND NEWD AT 50 KT ACROSS NRN MS INTO WRN TN. ..PETERS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX... 33849042 35788934 36918953 39958922 39858723 38498710 36688712 33758827 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 10:45:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 05:45:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281044.jASAi4Hd015201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281042 LAZ000-MSZ000-281215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2491 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN LA AND FAR SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281042Z - 281215Z THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS...TO THE SOUTH OF WW 882. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AT 10Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION... WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY PER LIGHTNING DATA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FOR THIS REGION INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS /MUCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY NORMAL TO THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE SHEAR ORIENTATION SUGGESTS DISCRETE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE... WHILE STRONG EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES UP TO 300-400 M2/S2 SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS INLAND ACROSS LA TO SRN MS ARE ELEVATED...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RUC ALSO INDICATED A GREATER THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD OCCUR EWD INTO SERN LA/SERN MS LATER THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION. ..PETERS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29569260 31359165 31348959 29268968 28999079 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 12:25:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 07:25:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281223.jASCNtIX004039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281219 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-281745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2492 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NE/ERN SD/MN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/FREEZING RAIN VALID 281219Z - 281745Z DEEP...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SERN NE TO WRN IA BY 18 UTC. SYSTEM IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH SURFACE LOW PREDICTED TO REACH SRN MN BORDER BY 18 UTC...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING LARGEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER NCNTRL IA. 10 UTC RUC FORECAST SHOWS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/TROWAL AXIS ON THE 297K SURFACE TO SHARPEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SNOW RATES EXCEED 1"/HOUR. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM CNTRL SD/CNTRL NE INTO ERN SECTIONS OF THESE STATES AS NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 30 TO 40 MPH PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE REPOSITIONING OF CYCLONE ALSO RESULTS IN COOLING OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN CNTRL AND NRN MN. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE STEADILY DURING THE MORNING REACHING 32F IN NCNTRL MN BY 13 UTC AND BY 16 UTC IN SCNTRL MN...AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STILL A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF WARM AIR CENTERED AROUND 850 MB LEVEL WITH LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG BAROCLINIC TROUGH AXIS WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN BANDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05" TO 0.10" PER HOUR POSSIBLE THROUGH 18 UTC. SEE THE LATEST HPC FORECASTS FOR PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND HEAVY FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AND INFORMATION EXTENDING BEYOND 18 UTC. ..BRIGHT.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 44099930 45369804 46549685 47779500 48069332 47969133 47799085 47259114 46799215 45909351 44949452 43839546 42169696 41419792 41259917 41859980 42530013 43379991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 12:53:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 07:53:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281251.jASCpu90018135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281251 CAZ000-281745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 281251Z - 281745Z SNOW RATES AT OR ABOVE 1" PER HOUR WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 15 AND 18 UTC AS AREA OF PRECIPITATION CLEARLY VISIBLE ON IR IMAGERY MOVES ONSHORE THIS MORNING. JET STREAK AROUND 65 KTS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REACHES THE NRN CA COAST AROUND 17 UTC PER 11 UTC RUC FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WITH 12 UTC TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 32F AT YREKA TO 42F AT REDDING. DEEP SATURATED AIR MASS WITH UPWARD MOTION THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL AID THE SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 2500 FEET MSL AND LOWER TO ABOUT 2000 FEET MSL BY 18 UTC AS SLIGHT WET BULB COOLING OCCURS AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY INCREASES. ISOLATED HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEYS COULD EXPERIENCE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN OR SNOW. THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE BY 18 UTC WILL BE SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ABOVE 2000 FEET MSL. ..BRIGHT.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... 41052328 41702267 41652199 40772108 40142071 39842103 40202217 40632269 40582323 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 13:12:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 08:12:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281311.jASDBF7S029975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281310 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-281445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2494 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SERN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 883... VALID 281310Z - 281445Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 883 IN THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SERN AL. AT 13Z...REGIONAL RADARS AND LIGHTNING DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INLAND OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/SERN AL TO SWRN/WRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED WITHIN PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NNEWD PER IR IMAGERY. 12Z SOUNDING AT TLH SUGGESTS THESE STORMS...AT LEAST OVER LAND...ARE LIKELY ELEVATED. THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO AID IN WEAKENING THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. STRONG SRH VALUES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 29888692 31048681 31938641 31728506 30678489 29318500 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 15:31:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 10:31:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281530.jASFUCtS020121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281529 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-281730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS INTO WRN AND CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281529Z - 281730Z WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR. SQUALL LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NERN MS SSWWD INTO SERN LA. HEATING/WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. ADJUSTING THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM BAX WITH THESE NUMBERS GIVES SBCAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 2000 J/KG INDICATING THE RAPID DESTABILIZATION. ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STRONG WIND PROFILES PRESENT ACROSS THE SERN STATES FROM CENTRAL MS THRU AL WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 50-65 KT ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING THIS...THE INSTABILITY AND THAT 0-1KM SHEAR IS 300-350 M2/S2...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES EITHER WITH DISCRETE CELLS FORMING WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE OR WITH CELLS EMBEDDED AND INCREASING WITHIN THE LINE. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30288934 30628975 31108977 32198923 33058878 33778813 34298773 34348693 33828643 33208648 32078639 31438674 30818706 30398778 30218900 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 16:55:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 11:55:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281653.jASGrZ4H030791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281652 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281652Z - 281845Z WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO AREA WHERE HEATING/WARM ADVECTION IS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. STRONG WIND FIELDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INDICATING SOME LIMITS TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...BUT AS COOLING ALOFT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE PROCESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. THUS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CELLS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE CREATING SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH 0-1KM HELICITY AROUND 350 M2/S2...OR FOR SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN... 35018644 35048736 35638742 37038686 38418662 38688568 38488513 38378454 38208419 37778433 37098452 36408511 35588540 35028542 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 17:21:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 12:21:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281719.jASHJTVq020984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281718 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INDIANA/WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281718Z - 281845Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO/ MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN INDIANA INTO OH. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD AT AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS INDIANA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY EXISTS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY ACROSS KY/WRN OH MAY ALLOW FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE VERY STRONG...WITH 50+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PER 12Z RAOBS/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD DATA. ACCORDINGLY...PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT ATTRIBUTABLE TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH 0-1 KM SRH OF 500+ M2/S2 PER 12Z ILN RAOB/LATEST VAD DATA. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 41648518 41408303 40148287 39198343 39008455 39098590 40428580 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 17:37:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 12:37:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281736.jASHaFYX003381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281652 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281652Z - 281845Z WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO AREA WHERE HEATING/WARM ADVECTION IS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. STRONG WIND FIELDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INDICATING SOME LIMITS TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...BUT AS COOLING ALOFT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE PROCESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. THUS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CELLS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE CREATING SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH 0-1KM HELICITY AROUND 350 M2/S2...OR FOR SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN... 35018644 35048736 35638742 37038686 38418662 38688568 38488513 38378454 38208419 37778433 37098452 36408511 35588540 35028542  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 18:00:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 13:00:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281759.jASHx23H024171@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281718 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INDIANA/WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281718Z - 281845Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO/ MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN INDIANA INTO OH. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD AT AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS INDIANA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY EXISTS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY ACROSS KY/WRN OH MAY ALLOW FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE VERY STRONG...WITH 50+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PER 12Z RAOBS/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD DATA. ACCORDINGLY...PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT ATTRIBUTABLE TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH 0-1 KM SRH OF 500+ M2/S2 PER 12Z ILN RAOB/LATEST VAD DATA. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 41648518 41408303 40148287 39198343 39008455 39098590 40428580  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 19:02:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 14:02:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281901.jASJ11B0011479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281859 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-290000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2498 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEB/ERN SD/SE ND INTO WRN/NRN MN CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 281859Z - 290000Z HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM NE NEB/ERN SD INTO SE ND AND PORTIONS OF WCNTRL MN. BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/NCNTRL MN. ON N/NW PERIPHERY OF OCCLUDING IA CYCLONE /983 MB AT 18Z/...SW-NE ORIENTED AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL INTENSIFY/SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN SD INTO WCNTRL MN...ORIENTED PARALLEL TO 650MB-850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND AT TERMINUS OF TROWAL PER 12Z MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/CROSS SECTIONS. AMPLE UVVS THROUGH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL PROMOTE SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER. COINCIDENT WITH THIS SNOWFALL...VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER CONDITIONS...WITH 50-70 KT WINDS COMMON IN THE LOWEST FEW KM OF REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VAD DATA. ACROSS WCNTRL/NCNTRL MN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS FROM INL/ABR...15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ABOVE SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. AFFIRMED BY 09Z SREF PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS...THIS SUGGESTS POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/NCNTRL MN...INCLUDING A DETROIT LAKES-BEMIDJI-INTERNATIONAL FALLS CORRIDOR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE ICE ACCUMULATION. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 48299238 46989375 44599625 43129741 42439797 42379973 43210056 44130010 44499993 46429780 48009577 48769433 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 19:21:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 14:21:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281920.jASJKDOD028058@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281919 ALZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-TNZ000-282115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 884... VALID 281919Z - 282115Z COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD INTO N CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL AL. INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM MOBILE BAY NNEWD THRU BHM WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG BETWEEN 55 AND 65 KT. 18Z RAOB DATA FRM KBMX INDICATED MARGINAL SBCAPE AROUND 750 J/KG WITH STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THUS...WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING AT 50-60 KT...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... 30318826 30948823 32188815 33258813 34018810 34708780 34988738 34968698 35008604 34938548 34558551 34118548 33558554 32928560 32198553 31558559 30948569 30438569 30268574 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 20:20:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 15:20:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511282018.jASKIWjZ020290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282017 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-282145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/CNTRL KY/EXTREME SE INDIANA INTO ERN KY/ERN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 885... VALID 282017Z - 282145Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 885 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN...WITH AN ISOLD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NECESSITY OF ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE INTO ERN TN/ERN KY. RUC DIAGNOSTICS/WSR-88D VADS CONTINUE TO DEPICT RATHER STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD IN PLACE ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE ADVANCING ACROSS CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN...WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 400-600 M2/S2. HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT RADAR CHARACTER OF CONVECTIVE LINE AND WEAK INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM /REF 18Z BNA RAOB/...SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY DECREASE/REMAIN MARGINAL WITH EWD TRANSITION TOWARD ERN KY/ERN TN. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE INTO ERN KY/ERN TN. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN... 38678541 38758466 38408331 36688366 35658424 35168498 34978596 35078662 35708658 36638648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 22:42:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 17:42:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511282240.jASMeTLW013232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282239 ALZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-282345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2501 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 884... VALID 282239Z - 282345Z TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL AL IN TORNADO WATCH 884...NAMELY IN A CORRIDOR FROM BIRMINGHAM TO NEAR MONTGOMERY. STRONG MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA. WITHIN WEDGE OF WARM/UNSTABLE AIR...ADDITIONAL TSTMS WEST OF THE SELMA AL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND PROGRESS NEWD. THESE STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH/CROSS EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL WEDGE ARCING NW-SW FROM CNTRL AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED TO SELY...WITH 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 300 M2/S2 OR GREATER BEING VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION/TORNADOES. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... 34788642 34888551 32178553 30418590 30528715 31548729 32048779 32428784 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 00:16:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 19:16:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290014.jAT0EUXG013982@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290013 FLZ000-GAZ000-290145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2502 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290013Z - 290145Z PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONLY A LIMITED THREAT INLAND. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS OFFSHORE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETREAT NWD. EARLY THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE N CNTRL FL PENINSULA NWWD THROUGH THE NERN GULF JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FL PANHANDLE THEN INLAND OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT ONLY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY. CELLS WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AND PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO AS THEY CROSS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NERN GULF WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND. UNLESS THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT NWD...THE INLAND SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE... 29398332 29338435 30328546 30888524 30208339 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 01:12:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 20:12:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290111.jAT1BAJ9015393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290110 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2503 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SE ND AND WRN/NRN MN CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 290110Z - 290545Z BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM ERN SD/SE ND INTO NW MN THIS EVENING. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER WILL BE MOST PROLONGED THROUGH 06Z ACROSS SE ND INTO PORTIONS OF NW/NCNTRL MN...WHILE SNOW RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS ERN SD. VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE OVER NRN IA/SRN MN CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH 985 MB SFC LOW CENTERED OVER SE MN AT 01Z. ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...DEFORMATION AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL REMAIN FOCUSED THIS EVENING BETWEEN MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT AND TROWAL /TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT/ AIRSTREAM ARCING ACROSS NRN MN/FAR ERN DAKOTAS PER LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/CROSS SECTIONS. MAINTENENCE OF EXISTING RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW ACROSS NW/NCNTRL MN INTO ERN SD APPEARS LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW RATES GRADUALLY DECREASING ON THE SRN EXTENT ACROSS ERN SD. SIMILAR TO 00Z ABERDEEN RAOB...RUC FCST SOUNDINGS FOR SE ND INTO NW/NCNTRL MN FEATURE DEEPLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THIS EVENING...WITH AMPLE UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER BANDS. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS...WITH ERN DAKOTAS WSR-88D VAD DATA/00Z ABERDEEN RAOB SAMPLING 50-70 KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KM. ..GUYER.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48859460 48109224 46819409 45499604 43689654 43529717 43809812 44759887 46509808 48319615 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 01:51:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 20:51:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290150.jAT1oLXa007370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290149 GAZ000-ALZ000-290315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN AL THROUGH EXTREME WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 886... VALID 290149Z - 290315Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3 HOURS MAINLY FROM S CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL AL. A MORE LIMITED THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO EXTREME WRN GA AFTER 02Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN WRN GA AS STORMS APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW 886. A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF CLEBURNE COUNTY IN ERN AL SWWD TO MONROE COUNTY IN SRN AL. THE LINE CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE NEWD AT AROUND 35 KT. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN AL. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN A NARROW AXIS FROM SRN THROUGH E CNTRL AL...AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWWD THROUGH S CNTRL AL WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE NEWD AND CROSS THIS BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY ARE ENHANCED. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY FROM S CNTRL THROUGH ERN AL. INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE MARGINAL AND ELEVATED FARTHER EAST INTO GA...AND THIS COULD SERVE TO LIMIT THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TORNADO THREAT. ..DIAL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31408584 31908703 33408607 33688521 33058491 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 04:31:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 23:31:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290429.jAT4Td6E009462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290428 GAZ000-ALZ000-290530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL AL AND WRN AND NW GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 886... VALID 290428Z - 290530Z TORNADO WATCH 886 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. A LIMITED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST BEYOND 05Z ACROSS SRN AND E CNTRL AL THROUGH WRN AND NW GA. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME. LATE THIS EVENING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FROM NWRN GA SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL AL. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH ERN AL AND INTO WRN GA THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ACROSS ERN AL AND WRN GA N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWWD INTO SRN AL. SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR A BRIEF TORNADO WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER...MOST STORMS ARE PROBABLY BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. ..DIAL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31378602 31988641 34438469 33888414 31668509 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 04:44:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 23:44:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290442.jAT4gvwl017020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290442 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290441 FLZ000-GAZ000-290615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290441Z - 290615Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW OVER THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. LATE THIS EVENING...A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE NRN FL PENINSULA NWWD ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN GULF. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NERN GULF AND ARE TRAINING NEWD. THE STORMS APPEAR TO TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY CROSS THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE DEEPER INTO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THIS FEATURE. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED NWD LAST COUPLE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EVENTUALLY STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY INLAND AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE... 29978338 29748412 30308461 30938387 30638342 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 04:50:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 23:50:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290448.jAT4mfra019755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290428 GAZ000-ALZ000-290530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL AL AND WRN AND NW GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 886... VALID 290428Z - 290530Z TORNADO WATCH 886 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. A LIMITED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST BEYOND 05Z ACROSS SRN AND E CNTRL AL THROUGH WRN AND NW GA. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME. LATE THIS EVENING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FROM NWRN GA SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL AL. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH ERN AL AND INTO WRN GA THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ACROSS ERN AL AND WRN GA N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWWD INTO SRN AL. SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR A BRIEF TORNADO WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER...MOST STORMS ARE PROBABLY BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. ..DIAL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31378602 31988641 34438469 33888414 31668509  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 04:59:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 23:59:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290458.jAT4wLsL026915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290442 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290441 FLZ000-GAZ000-290615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290441Z - 290615Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW OVER THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. LATE THIS EVENING...A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE NRN FL PENINSULA NWWD ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN GULF. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NERN GULF AND ARE TRAINING NEWD. THE STORMS APPEAR TO TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY CROSS THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE DEEPER INTO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THIS FEATURE. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED NWD LAST COUPLE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EVENTUALLY STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY INLAND AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE... 29978338 29748412 30308461 30938387 30638342  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 10:50:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 05:50:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511291049.jATAnAxx016271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291048 FLZ000-291245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0448 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF THE WRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291048Z - 291245Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS...NOW OVER THE ERN GULF...CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE WRN FL COAST THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF LOOP CURRENT HAVE BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...GIVEN AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAINTAINING STRONG INSTABILITY. 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THIS AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES/SUPERCELLS PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA. AIR MASS ALONG THE COAST OF WRN FL IS MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY PER WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE INLAND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SURFACE BASED...AND THUS LIKELY PRECLUDE AN INLAND SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29228345 29498335 29588288 29098243 28398220 27818218 26938175 26308158 26128202 27168280 28168322 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 10:53:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 05:53:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511291051.jATAprni017005@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291050 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-291215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2508 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SC / GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291050Z - 291215Z WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. IF THIS OCCURS...A TORNADO WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR 68-72 F. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SURFACE BASED CAPE EXISTS WITH LITTLE CIN...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN GA / NRN FL WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ALONG DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND WITH UPPER SUPPORT FOR ASCENT LIFTING N OF THE AREA...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE. STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP RELATIVELY STRONG CORES WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT ROTATION AND COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2. GREATEST THREAT FOR EITHER DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADO WOULD BE WITHIN SURFACE THETA-E AXIS. ..JEWELL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30778436 32098366 33258318 34008214 34608102 34538005 33827977 32708075 31738122 30128141 30258302 30338428 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 12:58:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 07:58:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511291257.jATCvPcY002812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291256 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-291500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2509 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC/PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL NC TO SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291256Z - 291500Z AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT...POTENTIALLY BY MID MORNING... FROM SWRN/SRN VA SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NC AND MUCH OF SC. LIGHTNING DATA DURING THE LAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A DECREASING TREND IN OVERALL CG LIGHTNING ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN. HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND FIELDS/SHEAR ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK ATTM...THUS SUPPORTING THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING COVERAGE...12Z GSO SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER SC RESULTS IN SBCAPE UP TO 1400 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. DESPITE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING PER CLOUDINESS...SMALL RISES IN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE VALUES PER ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 34058235 35548198 37008144 37378029 37017905 35577908 33897956 33078043 33248175 33748231 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 19:11:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 14:11:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511291910.jATJABdD016218@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291909 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291909 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-292115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2510 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...NC...VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291909Z - 292115Z AREAS EAST OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SRN VA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO IF STORM INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A NARROW LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM 30W GSO TO 10N CAE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGION WAS SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA THROUGH EVENING. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN ABOUT 500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS FOR STRENGTHENING FORCING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50KT ARE EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY COMPENSATE FOR THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MIGHT SUPPORT A GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING LINE OF TSTMS MOVING EAST FROM THE PIEDMONT AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST VWP DATA WAS DEPICTING MODEST SELY SFC FLOW TOPPED BY 50KT SLY FLOW AT 1KM. RESULTING LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR MESOCYCLONES. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LINE SEGMENTS AND SHORT-LIVED MESOCYCLONES WITH DAMAGING WINDS COULD EVOLVE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 33798128 35388094 37518021 38937859 38297756 36937638 35407550 34507673 32708018 32778111 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 23:55:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 18:55:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511292353.jATNrx6g008180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292353 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-300100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2511 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MD AND SRN PA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 887... VALID 292353Z - 300100Z WIND DAMAGE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MD AND SRN PA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A SMALL MESOLOW APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AND AT 2340Z WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER ABOUT 15 NE HGR. THIS SYSTEM AND BOW ECHO EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ARE MOVING NEWD AT 45 TO 50 KT. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE THIS SYSTEM AT 003OZ FROM NEAR CXY TO NORTH OF DCA. ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE IS MOST LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...1 KM SRH NEAR 500 M**2/S**2...INDICATES A TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MESOLOW. ..IMY.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX... 39797781 40357681 40217653 39317669 39027702 39147772 39467748 39757748 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 01:22:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 20:22:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511300120.jAU1KwEX029838@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300120 VAZ000-MDZ000-300215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2512 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND SRN MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 887... VALID 300120Z - 300215Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT HOUR...ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA AND SRN MD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH WRN VA. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS WEST OF A DCA-RDU LINE. A MESOLOW DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE FRONT AND HAS SINCE WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO SERN PA. ANOTHER MESOLOW APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AND WAS LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SW OF DCA. AS THIS SYSTEM RACES NEWD AT 40 KT...A BOW ECHO EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. THE EVENING DCA SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE LIFTED PARCELS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT THE WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FOR THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS TO CONTINUE REACHING THE SURFACE. ..IMY.. 11/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... 37427729 37817721 38397733 38627702 38387652 37417646 37167726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 02:44:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 21:44:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511300242.jAU2gqhK015345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300241 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-300345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2513 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0841 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA...SRN MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 887... VALID 300241Z - 300345Z SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING FROM WV INTO PA AND MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS LIFTING NWD INTO PA AND NY. ALTHOUGH A NARROW LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SE OF DCA TO EAST OF RWI...THE WEAKENING FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN THE STORM INTENSITIES TO DECREASE DURING THE PAST HOUR. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WIND SEVERE WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE...EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...IT LIKELY WILL BECOME DIFFICULT FOR THE STRONG/SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. ..IMY.. 11/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... 36557747 38007724 38837661 39337618 38647550 38357469 36507548 35967625 35737749 35797797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 01:15:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 20:15:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511010115.jA11FSHm024978@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010114 LAZ000-TXZ000-010245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS COASTAL AREA THROUGH SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 840... VALID 010114Z - 010245Z PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FROM S TX NEWD ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH A MORE LIMITED THREAT INTO SRN LA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AND ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED E OF WW 840. SQUALL LINE FROM CNTRL LA SWWD ALONG THE TX COAST CONTINUES EWD AT AROUND 30 KT. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE TX COAST. WITH STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING REMAINING IN COOL SECTOR...THE RESPONSE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY A MODEST SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR. MOREOVER...WITH ONLY UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS RESIDING OVER THE NRN GULF...FURTHER NWD ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THIS SUGGESTS THE LA PORTION OF SQUALL LINE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. ..DIAL.. 11/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...CRP... 27599743 28739524 30029330 31029199 30029137 28979284 27049705 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 18:21:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 13:21:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511051821.jA5ILoYr002475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051821 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051821 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-052045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051821Z - 052045Z TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN A BAND FROM NRN MO/SRN IA NEWD ACROSS NRN IL/SRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS A LEAD IMPULSE NOW MOVING TOWARD NWRN MO FROM NERN KS ENHANCES DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM IRK TO GBG TO MDW. WHILE THIS LEAD IMPULSE IS WELL AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SUFFICIENT LIFT AND ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST DVN SOUNDING AT 18Z FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR BOTH INCREASING SINCE 12Z. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A GOOD PROBABILITY OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS INCREASING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH 21Z. ..CARBIN.. 11/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 41708759 41098829 40399084 40059195 40179307 41189256 41869179 42239133 42649052 42878970 43058904 42828761 42488689 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 21:21:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 16:21:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511052120.jA5LKr6b010976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052119 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2374 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...WRN IL...EXTREME SERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052119Z - 052315Z A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF MO AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN IA AND WRN IL. LATEST VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL AND PROFILER DATA WERE ALL DEPICTING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING EAST ACROSS KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LARGE ASCENT WAS INDUCING LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER WRN MO WHERE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED ON A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE LOW TO NRN IL. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER... RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SO FAR INHIBITED SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CAPPING INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DUE TO HEATING/MIXING AND MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR SURFACE LOW AND FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE DEEP CONVECTION FORMS AND TAKES ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS ORGANIZED STORMS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FROM INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT GIVEN FORECAST 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 FOR EWD TRACKING CELLS. RAPID EWD ADVANCE OF LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OVERTAKE CELLULAR STORMS WITH ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES...AFTER DARK. WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 11/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 39409395 39879301 40459222 41188944 40488896 38709011 37579284 37749422 38869437 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 22:57:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 17:57:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511052257.jA5Mv2iE009543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052255 MOZ000-ARZ000-060030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052255Z - 060030Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER SRN MO THIS EVENING...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO NRN AR. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL. ALTHOUGH 18Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWED PRONOUNCED CAP...STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH COLD FRONT AND COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. GIVEN STRONG LINEAR FORCING...A SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE...ALTHOUGH VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AHEAD OF THIS LINE SUGGEST EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES POSSIBLE AS WELL. THUS...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 11/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37809377 37769029 35679074 35689424 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 00:38:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 19:38:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060038.jA60c33d008467@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060036 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-060200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2376 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL/ERN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 841... VALID 060036Z - 060200Z TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH AROUND 2Z ACROSS WW AREA...BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...MAINTAINING FULL-SPECTRUM SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL THEN. THEREAFTER...COMBINATION OF MAINLY LINEAR MODE AND DIABATIC SFC COOLING/STABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR INFLOW REGION WILL REDUCE TORNADO THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL STILL WILL BE LIKELY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE EVIDENT AS OF 0030Z...INCLUDING ANOMALOUSLY INTENSE LEFT-SPLITTER MOVING NNEWD ACROSS MONROE/SERN SHELBY COUNTY WHICH MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL OVER MARION/LEWIS/CLARK COUNTIES MO. ACTIVITY SW JEF AS OF 0030Z MAY DEVELOP INTO BOW ECHO AND TRACK ENEWD TOWARD STL AREA WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. REPORT OF 70 KT GUST WAS RECEIVED FROM BOONE COUNTY MO AT 2350Z ALONG WITH 1.75 INCH HAIL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED LOW OVER CENTRAL/NERN MO NEAR COU...WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD INTO NRN IL OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND BACKING OF SFC WINDS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NERN MO AND NRN IL...E AND NE OF PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK AND INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NWRN IL. MEANWHILE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN MO. WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND FRONT...AS COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND WEAKENING LIFT REDUCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE FORMING THROUGH 03Z...AS ONGOING ACTIVITY COALESCES OVER WW AREA AND BACKBUILDS SWWD THROUGH WW 842. LINEAR MODE WILL BE SUPPORTED MORE WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND INFLOW ABOVE SFC IS ALIGNED MORE PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY. ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 37969336 40609140 41059009 41078926 40838880 40488857 40258864 39508948 38458982 37959054 37789122 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 01:27:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 20:27:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060127.jA61Rbq9015594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060125 MOZ000-ARZ000-060300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN AR AND SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 842... VALID 060125Z - 060300Z IR AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE BACKBUILDING TOWARD AREA JUST N FSM...WITH DEEPENING TOWERS E OF LINE IN WARM SECTOR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. TSTM BAND WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS OZARKS TOWARD N-CENTRAL AR AND S-CENTRAL/SERN MO. ANIMATION OF 05/18Z-06/00Z SGF RAOBS SHOWS CLASSIC PROFILE FOR ONSET OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT REMOVING LARGE AMOUNTS OF CINH...AND THIS PROCESS SHOULD EXTEND SWD AT LEAST INTO EXTREME NRN AR. PRIND SRN END OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEAR I-40 OVER NWRN AR...AS STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE IN MO LIFTS NEWD AHEAD OF INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING TURNS NEWD AWAY FROM REGION. 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL TRANSITION TO SIMILAR VALUES OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AS DIABATICALLY DRIVEN DECOUPLING OCCURS IN INFLOW SECTOR...ACCOMPANIED BY AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35559425 37319329 37819240 37799137 37759090 37569065 36769105 36509115 35439143 35499207 35369285 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 02:54:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 21:54:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060254.jA62sBtY016486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060253 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-060400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IL...WRN INDIANA...WRN KY...SE MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 841... VALID 060253Z - 060400Z WW/S 841 AND 842 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 0330Z. SQUALL LINE NEAR/E OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN IL/MO/NW AR WILL MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL IL AND SE MO/NE AR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS NRN IL...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THOUGH THE WARM SECTOR IS GRADUALLY STABILIZING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LOW-MID LEVEL SLY/SWLY FLOW OF 45-60 KT WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..THOMPSON.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF... 37278856 36618930 35429057 35489198 35989237 38339075 39899002 41248935 41558847 41658752 41468699 40398695 39468720 38278780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 05:58:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 00:58:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060557.jA65vtQr010027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060557 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN AR...EXTREME SERN MO...EXTREME WRN KY...EXTREME WRN TN...S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL/NRN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 843... VALID 060557Z - 060730Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING EWD 30-40 KT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT PAST E EDGE OF WW...AREAS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA SWWD TO WRN TN WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WIND WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN AR...SERN MO..IL AND NWRN INDIANA. PRESENT SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR-SFC STABILITY AND STRENGTH OF LOW/MIDLEVEL JETS INDICATE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO BRING SEVERE WIND TO SFC WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS -- ESPECIALLY AROUND BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL ALSO LINGERS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF SMALL MLCINH REMAIN OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO. THESE CINH WEAKNESSES SHOULD FILL WHILE DIABATIC SFC COOLING CONTINUES IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS. AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME...GRADUALLY REDUCING PROBABILITY OF SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD ACROSS INDIANA...WRN TN AND WRN KY. ACTIVITY MOVING EWD FROM CENTRAL AR SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS EWD TOWARD MS RIVER. ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK... 35039194 36259069 37688958 38288979 38928876 40638791 41538753 41298552 40718487 39308560 36498839 35079028 34869157 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 07:39:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 02:39:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060739.jA67d0p1022811@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060738 MIZ000-060915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060738Z - 060915Z PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS LWR MI SINCE 04Z AS UPSTREAM POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SURGED N INTO CNTRL LWR MI WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-50S. NRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS SWRN LWR MI HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING PER COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR SATL. AS THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE ROTATES NEWD AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY ACROSS LWR MI...TSTMS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED OR COULD INCREASE AS THEY MOVE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LWR MI. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THESE TSTMS MAY TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. ..RACY.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41818600 42878601 43588280 42808244 41758278 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 08:14:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 03:14:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060814.jA68EjOZ011535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060813 KYZ000-INZ000-060945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2381 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060813Z - 060945Z SRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE HAS EVOLVED INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THIS MORNING. THE 2-6KM MEAN WIND HAS LARGELY REMAINED NORMAL TO THE LINE THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...SUGGESTING A MIXED-MODE OF LINE SEGMENTS AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS. VWP/S SUGGEST VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OWING TO A STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LWR GRTLKS REGION. 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 340 M2/S2 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT LOUISVILLE. GIVEN NEARLY 70 KTS OF H85-H7 FLOW...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SUSTAINED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SRN IND AND WRN KY. OTHERWISE...A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH HAIL. PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 844 MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY. ..RACY.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... 38448709 39158615 39058519 38638476 37788558 36868631 36688725 36798807 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 09:41:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 04:41:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511060941.jA69fddW001285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060940 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-061115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2382 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OH/TN VLYS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060940Z - 061115Z STRONG NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING ACROSS IL WITH STRONGEST BELT OF ASCENT SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN OH AND SERN LWR MI ATTM. STRONGEST LLJ AXIS WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT NWD FROM THE TN VLY TO THE OH VLY WITH 50-70 KTS IN THE H85-H7 LAYER. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS COMPENSATING FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN LWR MI SWD INTO WRN OH TO SUPPORT A LINEAR MCS. FARTHER S...INSTABILITY WAS STRONGER OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER/MOISTER BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...DESPITE WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE...A MIXED MODE OF LINE SEGMENTS/DISCRETE CELLS ARE BEING FAVORED. GIVEN SUCH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAINTAINED JUST AHEAD OF THE TSTMS THROUGH THE MORNING FROM CNTRL OH SWWD ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN. OVERALL STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL OH SWD INTO MIDDLE TN...CONTINUING A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT EAST OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH 845. AS SUCH...NEW WW/S WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER PARTS OF THE OH/TN VLYS. ..RACY.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... 35878712 41668234 41678075 36788413 35838511 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 11:21:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 06:21:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061121.jA6BLBhC013073@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061120 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-061215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN OH...SERN IND...WRN KY...WRN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 845... VALID 061120Z - 061215Z TORNADO WATCH 845 EXPIRES AT 12Z. ANALYSIS PLACES A 994 MB LOW OVER SRN LK MI AT 11Z WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NRN LWR MI. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NEWD THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE...WITH SEVERAL SEGMENTED CONVERGENCE ZONES ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VLY SWD INTO THE TN VLY. THE PRIMARY BAND OF TSTMS HAS MOVED EWD INTO WW/S 847/848. BUT...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ACROSS WCNTRL OH SWWD INTO SRN IND ALONG ONE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONES. A NARROW TONGUE OF LOW-MID 60S DEW POINTS CONTINUES JUST AHEAD OF THIS NEW TSTM LINE SEGMENT AND COULD SIGNAL A RENEWED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OH SWWD INTO NWRN KY...OR ALONG ERN EDGE OF THE EXPIRING WT 845. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLD TORNADO AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NEW WW/S DOWNSTREAM SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. FARTHER S...ACROSS WRN TN...GIVEN THAT MAIN MASS CONVERGENCE/LLJ IS TRANSLATING NWD...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG... 35048924 37958728 38918693 39888606 40638382 39888396 39038422 38468556 35048827 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 11:57:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 06:57:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061157.jA6BvPwl029986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061156 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-061300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MID-OH VLY SWWD INTO ERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061156Z - 061300Z BOUNDARY LAYER /CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID-50S/ HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE MID-OH VLY SWD INTO ERN TN. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ /MASS CONVERGENCE/ WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD INTO THE OH VLY REGION AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION. ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...MEAN WIND VECTORS ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE LINE AND MODEST INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR MIXED MODES CONSISTING OF LINE SEGMENTS AND DISCRETE SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL/WRN KY/TN. THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE LLJ AXIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT NWD WITH TIME WITH AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORTING TSTMS FROM THE MID-OH VLY SWD INTO ERN TN. STRONGEST UVV SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS AREAS N OF THE OH RVR AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLD TORNADOES WILL EXIST THERE. BUT...OVERALL STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AS FAR S AS ERN TN. NEW WW WILL POSSIBLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-OH VLY SWD INTO ERN TN. ..RACY.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN... 36208472 39558210 39468096 37048290 36078371 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 13:46:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 08:46:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061345.jA6Djsu7004304@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061344 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-061515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2385 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MID-UPPER OH VLY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061344Z - 061515Z THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER OH VLY REGION WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LWR OH VLY/TN VLY OVERNIGHT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT TSTMS WILL INTENSIFY/DEVELOP AGAIN BY MID-MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OH. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. AS A RESULT...DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE LWR GRTLKS AND UPPER OH VLY BY EARLY AFTN. ..RACY.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 38728474 42128221 42177974 40348113 38618248 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 15:13:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 10:13:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061512.jA6FCmrv016292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061512 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061511 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-061715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2386 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...WCNTRL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061511Z - 061715Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LINE DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN NY AND WCNTRL PA THIS MORNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY BEING ISSUED ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA. SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE PRESSURE FALL AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S F. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG SUGGESTING ANY STORM ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... 40057965 41987969 43327916 43447782 43067700 41657689 39857750 39617868 39857959 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 16:46:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 11:46:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061646.jA6GkCvZ030251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061644 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-061845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2387 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 848... VALID 061644Z - 061845Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS ERN OH AND FAR WRN PA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WW 848 WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN OH. SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING IN THE ERN PART OF WW 848 AHEAD OF A STRONG BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE LINES EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL ALLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING EWD WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE LINE TO INTENSIFY. AS A RESULT...WW 848 WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDING LOCALLY IN ERN OH AND ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF PA. THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 38938252 39428278 40788174 42048088 42348006 41847937 39418130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 18:26:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 13:26:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061825.jA6IPvQm012257@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061825 VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2388 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN MD...NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061825Z - 062030Z A CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE OH-WV STATE-LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF WV INTO NRN MD AND NRN VA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL QUICKLY MOVE NEWD SPREADING STRONG ASCENT EWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LINE OF STORMS NEAR THE OH-WV STATE-LINE APPEARS TO BE FORMING JUST AHEAD OF A BAND OF FOCUSED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER OH. AHEAD OF THE LINE...PARTIAL CLEARING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS MOST OF WRN WV. THIS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW THE LINE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SWD THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 39628077 39657881 39137782 38507760 37897786 37477880 37457967 37588131 38138191 39228160 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 19:59:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 14:59:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511061959.jA6Jx6US025736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061958 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2389 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NY...ERN PA...FAR NRN MD AND WRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 850... VALID 061958Z - 062130Z SEVERAL LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO THE ERN PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 850. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY EAST OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AN ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX OVER OH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING BAND OF ASCENT IS MOVING ACROSS WRN PA AND IS ENTERING WRN NY ATTM. THIS IS SUPPORTING SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES AHEAD OF THE LINE IN CNTRL PA AND PARTIAL CLEARING IN SW NY. AS A RESULT...DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE LINE ALLOWING THE STORMS TO REMAIN INTENSE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUSTAIN THE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... 44277593 44057400 43387343 40937449 39617543 39587771 39727854 40467844 42837734 43617691 44027653 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 23:49:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 18:49:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511062348.jA6NmoGs028354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062347 VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-070115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2390 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...NRN NJ...ERN NY...WRN VT... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 851... VALID 062347Z - 070115Z COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTAINING SEVERAL BOW/LEWP FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS MOST OF WW AREA..INCLUDING ALB/GFL/POU REGIONS. ZONE OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND E AND SE OF SRN PORTION WW...ACROSS PORTIONS SERN PA...NJ AND NYC AREA...BUT DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT AS INFLOW BECOMES MORE STABLE. ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF LIMITED AREA OF THREAT AND DECLINING PROBABILITIES WITH EWD EXTENT. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL/MOIST AXES JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND OVER ERN NY...THERMAL AXIS CURVING SWWD OVER ERN PA AND MOST AXIS SEWD ACROSS ERN NJ AND JUST OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL ZONE -- ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MARINE AIR MASS ADVECTED OFF ATLANTIC -- EXTENDING NEARLY MERIDIONALLY INVOF ERN NY BORDER. STRONG ISALLOBARIC FORCING OVER ONT/SRN QUE...AND ASSOCIATED BACKING OF LOW SFC FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER E OF MARINE FRONT DRIFTING FARTHER WWD INTO MORE OF HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS BEFORE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTIVE BAND. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE INTENSE LOW LEVEL WAA ABOVE STABLE LAYER WILL OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN TSTM POTENTIAL INTO WRN/NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG. HOWEVER SEVERE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH GREATLY AS CONVECTION CROSSES MARINE FRONT AND PROCEEDS EWD. ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41097570 41707539 41907522 42207528 42717474 43237483 43487427 43977417 44317438 44997423 45017229 42727325 42097342 41727348 41097357 40487392 40017420 39847512 39827560 39817700 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 01:17:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 20:17:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511070117.jA71H9DS015061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070114 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-070315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2391 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MD...DE...PORTIONS SERN PA AND SRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070114Z - 070315Z LINE OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS HAS BACKBUILT SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT...INTO PORTIONS NRN MD. EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ESSENTIALLY IN PACE WITH EWD MOTION OF COLD FRONT. RESULTANT CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CROSS DE VALLEY AND NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGIONS...WEAKENING AS IT APCHS ATLANTIC COAST WHERE SFC AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO MORE COOL/STABLE MARINE LAYER. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL ENOUGH SUCH THAT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER GUSTS OF LARGELY SUBSEVERE CRITERIA MAY STILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGE. 00Z IAD RAOB SHOWS MUCAPE 400-500 J/KG ATOP WELL MIXED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION CAN ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH AND AID IN TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO SFC...FROM AREA OF 40-50 KT FLOW 2-4 KM AGL. COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING -- AND OVER ERN NJ/ERN DELMARVA AREA...MARINE CAA -- WILL REDUCE DCAPE WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...BACKBUILDING MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS LATITUDE OF SRN DE/MD BORDER BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE. ..EDWARDS.. 11/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39257688 40457544 40697398 40467396 40267395 39747406 39367436 38537510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 18:36:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 13:36:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511081836.jA8IaSnW019973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081835 OHZ000-INZ000-082100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2392 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IND...SWRN AND CNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081835Z - 082100Z TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SWRN OH. THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIMITED TO ISOLATED AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE ERN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT BISECTING IND/OH AREA. LIFT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY WAS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EAST FROM IL/IND. GIVEN ANTECEDENT STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...AND INFLUX OF UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS...EXPECT RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KT AND VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WERE ALSO AIDING STORM ORGANIZATION AND COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND HAIL PRODUCTION. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND OBS ACROSS SRN OH SUGGEST SURFACE HEATING COULD FURTHER WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND BOOST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF STORMS CAN INCREASE ACROSS WARM-SECTOR...FROM ERN IND INTO SRN OH...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..CARBIN.. 11/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 39248477 40158570 40828530 40568223 39928118 39308198 38738281 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 23:32:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 18:32:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511082332.jA8NWCk2012789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082330 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-090100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2393 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN IA...CENTRAL/NRN IL...CENTRAL/NRN INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI...SRN LM...SRN WI...WRN OH. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082330Z - 090100Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS IN A WNW-ESE ORIENTED CORRIDOR MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA. THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR W AS MS RIVER REGION. TORNADO WW AND SEPARATE SEVERE TSTM WW FARTHER N ARE BEING PREPARED ATTM. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DOUBLE STRUCTURED WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS REGION. SOUTHERN BOUNDARY -- REINFORCED INITIALLY BY DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING -- IS EVIDENT FROM SWRN IA ESEWD ACROSS NERN MO...SRN IL...EVV/OWB REGION...INTO E-CENTRAL KY. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO LOSE DEFINITION AND CONSOLIDATE NWD AMIDST CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER WAA AND PRESSURE FALLS FARTHER NW. NRN FRONTAL SEGMENT IS STRENGTHENING FROM TRIPLE POINT LOW IN NERN SD...SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA THEN ESEWD OVER CENTRAL IL/INDIANA JUST N OF AN SPI-IND LINE...BECOMING DIFFUSED BY OUTFLOW EWD TO NEAR HTS. LATTER FRONTAL SEGMENT SHOULD MOVE NWD ABOUT 10 KT. MODIFIED 18Z ILX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTMS ALONG OR IN NARROW CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY N OF FRONT TO BE NEARLY SFC-BASED....INFLOW LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT FROM WARM FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. ACCORDINGLY...SFC DEW POINTS LOW 60S F CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG AND S OF NRN FRONT...TRANSITIONING TO ELEVATED MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM N OF NRN WARM FRONT SEGMENT. SBCINH INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT BENEATH STRONGER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...SO POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN OVER WRN IL AND ERN IA THAN FARTHER E. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELL MODES...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND SLGT RISK FOR TORNADOES INVOF FRONT...AND LARGE HAIL BEING MOST DOMINANT THREAT WELL N OF FRONT. STRONG CURVATURE IN HODOGRAPHS ALONG/N OF FRONT AND 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL WNWLYS SUPPORT 0-1 KM SRH 125-250 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS ABOUT 60 KT. ..EDWARDS.. 11/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 39488622 40118963 40729170 41489146 43039054 44138961 43758724 42638344 41398299 39958356 39558428 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 9 01:45:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 20:45:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511090145.jA91jMW8023930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090144 WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-090315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH...SERN LOWER MI...LM...EXTREME SRN LH. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090144Z - 090315Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FROM W-E ACROSS AREA E OF CURRENT WWS 852-853. REGION FROM SERN LOWER MI ACROSS MUCH OF OH IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR HTS NWWD ACROSS SWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL OH...EMANATING FROM MCS NOW DISSIPATING OVER NRN VA AND SRN WV. WRN PORTION OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS ZONE OF SFC WARM FRONTOGENESIS NEAR DAY...LATTER FRONT EXTENDING WNWWD ACROSS WW 852. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- MAINLY IN FORM OF LOW LEVEL WAA...WILL COMBINE WITH MOIST ADVECTION TO SUPPORT BOTH CONVECTION MOVING INTO AREA FROM WWS AND ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT STORM ROTATION. NEAR WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN BOUNDARY LAYER -- COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW...YIELDS 0-1 KM SRH 150-250 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEARS 50-60 KT. STORM INFLOW LAYER WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT FROM BOUNDARIES. ..EDWARDS.. 11/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... 38958224 39698479 40878482 40808419 42968399 43298231 42678247 42308299 41798310 42148104 40268061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 18:35:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 13:35:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511121834.jACIYWYj018190@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121833 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD/SW MN/ERN NEB/WRN IA...ERN KS AND PARTS OF WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121833Z - 122000Z SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE OR MORE TORNADO WWS WILL BE LIKELY BY THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. DRY SLOT...EAST OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...HAS ALLOWED FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING ALONG WESTERN GRADIENT OF NARROW LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE RETURNING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA INTO THE VICINITY OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG DRY LINE/COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW...AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS ELIMINATED...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 60F LIKELY WILL SUPPORT MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR AROUND 21Z...PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER. THEREAFTER...RELATIVELY RAPID EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED FROM SURFACE LOW CENTER SOUTHWARD ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. BROKEN LINE MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MISSOURI OZARKS BY EARLY EVENING. EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLE SHEARED MEAN FLOW REGIME ON THE ORDER OF 50+ KT...DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES SEEM LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 11/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT... 43289815 44139756 44109584 42309486 39669400 38109429 37279520 37209617 39149599 41199682 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 19:55:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 14:55:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511121955.jACJtFbF029102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121954 MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-122230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR...SWD INTO NCENTRAL/NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121954Z - 122230Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z OVER PORTIONS OF ERN OK SWWD INTO NCENTRAL/NERN TX. A WW IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY 21Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM OSAGE COUNTY OK SWWD INTO NCENTRAL TX /JUST TO THE WEST OF THE DFW METRO AREA/. EWD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GREATEST OVER NERN/ECENTRAL OK /AROUND 25 KTS/...CLOSEST TO LOW TO MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM. FURTHER SOUTH OVER SERN OK AND NCENTRAL TX...THE DRYLINE MOVEMENT WILL NOT BE MORE THAN 10 KTS. THE EXPECTED DRYLINE POSITION BY 22Z THEREFORE WILL BE FROM NEAR THE TULSA METRO AREA SWWD TO THE DFW METRO AREA. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE CINH REMAINING. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG WITH CONTINUED WAA AND REMOVAL OF 850-700 MB CAP LAYER WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN/ECENTRAL OK WILL SUPPORT 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORING DISCRETE SUPERCELL TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE GREATER OVER NERN OK INTO NWRN AR/FAR SWRN MO...CLOSEST TO LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CONSEQUENT STRONGEST /20-25 KTS OF 0-1 KM/ LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...LOW LCL/S WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH OVER SERN OK...NERN/NCENTRAL TX...SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS /30-40 KTS/ WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR TYPE. HOWEVER...EVEN OVER THIS AREA...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON SRN FRINGE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. UNLIKE FURTHER NORTH...WEAKER LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT OVER NERN/NCENTRAL TX. ..CROSBIE.. 11/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 36989563 36949609 34959698 33929741 32759785 32569712 32589500 34849435 36379397 36939384 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 21:37:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 16:37:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511122136.jACLaP8m020534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122135 IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-122300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD/SW MN...WRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 858... VALID 122135Z - 122300Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE LOW CENTER...NOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND ALONG DRY LINE WHICH HAS SURGED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO MERGE INTO DRY LINE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD. AS THIS OCCURS...BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SOLIDIFY NEAR/NORTHWEST OF DES MOINES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF FORT DODGE INTO AREAS EAST OF SPENCER. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT IS TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS WITHIN DEVELOPING LINE. PERHAPS SOMEWHAT BETTER TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WHERE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY IS ALREADY BECOMING MAXIMIZED...IN THE VICINITY OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...NEAR/EAST OF SIOUX FALLS THROUGH 00Z. ..KERR.. 11/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43679748 44299686 44309545 43889477 42769386 42109349 41309369 41069438 41949488 42719598 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 22:06:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 17:06:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511122205.jACM5pK4008340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122204 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2406 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN TX...AND SWRN MO/NWRN AR CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 122204Z - 130030Z VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION WHICH MAY AID IN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ATTM...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW THROUGH 00Z. SAT IMAGERY AND VISUAL INSPECTION INDICATES MODERATE CU OVER SERN OK...NEAR ADA. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE REMAINS MODEST ALONG DRYLINE OVER FAR NERN OK. GIVEN ONLY A FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO DRYLINE FCST TO BECOME STATIONARY...DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IN THESE AREAS AND ALONG THE REST OF THE DRYLINE REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH NOTED ON WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00-03Z. DESPITE LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF A 850 MB JET OVER MO...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL WAA/DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MAY ENSUE. IF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH...SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE STATIONARY DRYLINE OVER ERN OK/NERN TX BETWEEN 00-03Z. ..CROSBIE.. 11/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN... 36969540 35809623 34339700 33279748 32849723 32929619 35249482 36709412 36969448 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 22:41:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 17:41:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511122241.jACMf6Xh001600@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122240 IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-122345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2407 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SD...MN...IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 858... VALID 122240Z - 122345Z CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WERE MOVING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL IA AT 40KT....AS WELL AS NWRN IA. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND CELL MOTIONS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2. FARTHER NW...AREA ACROSS SERN SD INTO SWRN MN CONTINUES TO FAVOR STRONG UPWARD MOTION IN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER BENEATH UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSE STORMS WITH HAIL WILL SPREAD INTO SWRN MN OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 11/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40729208 40669397 43769722 44519713 44519310 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 23:26:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 18:26:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511122325.jACNPWmP021009@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122324 ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...WRN WI...ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122324Z - 130030Z A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA...SERN MN...AND WRN WI WITHIN THE HOUR. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN SEVERE STORMS SPREADING NEWD FROM CNTRL IA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DESPITE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS...GPS WATER VAPOR INDICATES GREATER MOISTURE STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR ON THE NOSE OF 80KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX COULD SUSTAIN ELEVATED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING NEWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 11/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42999243 44829322 44819210 44789101 41849028 40679121 40559166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 01:52:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 20:52:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511130151.jAD1pf5i030035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130151 MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SWRN MO AND WRN/CENTRAL AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 860... VALID 130151Z - 130345Z THREAT FOR SVR STORMS INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HRS ACROSS WW 860...ERN OK...SWRN MO AND WRN AR. LATEST PROFILER DATA FROM DE QUEEN AR INDICATES VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...200-300 MS/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH...WAS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF WW 860. MODIFIED 00Z SGF AND SHV SOUNDINGS INDICATES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPES REMAIN OVER MUCH OF WW 860. SUFFICIENT LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LVL WAA SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE GIVEN PRONOUNCED AND STRONG WLY COMPONENT OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON REGIONAL PROFILERS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ALONG STATIONARY DRYLINE ACROSS ERN OK...ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WW 860...AS MID LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. ..CROSBIE.. 11/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 37699454 33629661 33579309 37619102 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 02:10:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 21:10:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511130209.jAD29aL4007837@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130208 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-130315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2410 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN IA...SERN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 859... VALID 130208Z - 130315Z BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SPREAD NORTH OF SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND WAS POSING A DIMINISHING RISK OF TORNADOES. WHILE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS NEXT HOUR OR SO...MUCH OF TORNADO WATCH 859 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION AT 05Z. ..CARBIN.. 11/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43329041 42759206 45459366 45579114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 04:13:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 23:13:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511130412.jAD4CmU0007148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130411 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130411 MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-130545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...SRN MO...WRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 860... VALID 130411Z - 130545Z SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 860 LATE THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF SQUALL LINES WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED OFF THE DRYLINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM SWRN AR NEWD TO SRN MO WAS CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD POOLS. MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-65 KT WAS RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUITABLE FOR CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION. BREAKS OR CELLS WITHIN TRAILING PORTIONS OF EXISTING SQUALL LINES MAY ACQUIRE ROTATION WITH ISOLATED TORNADO STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 PER DEQUEEN AR PROFILER. ..CARBIN.. 11/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33679309 33689623 37679300 37639069 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 05:17:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 00:17:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511130516.jAD5GW8s008854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130515 ARZ000-130645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130515Z - 130645Z PARTS OF CNTRL AR ON THE ERN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 860 COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF CURRENT ACTIVITY MAINTAINS INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING EWD...A NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. MESOSCALE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AR LAST 1-2 HOURS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SALINE...PULASKI...AND FAULKNER COUNTIES WITH THE THREAT OF HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. VWP FROM LZK WAS INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN MESOCYCLONES IN EWD TRACKING CELLS. STORM IN SALINE COUNTY HAS SUPERCELL STRUCTURE AND WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WRN PARTS OF LITTLE ROCK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 11/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK... 34989128 34699137 34539243 34409316 34619338 35039253 35319204 35449149 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 12:30:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 07:30:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511141229.jAECTv5b023936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141228 ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-141430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2413 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX/SERN OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141228Z - 141430Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE NOT LIKELY IN THE NEAR TERM. CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING...ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SRN STREAM UPPER FEATURE NOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS TX. BOUNDARY LAYER N OF WARM FRONT -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM NERN TX EWD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER INTO NRN MS/NRN AL ATTM -- IS PARTICULARLY STABLE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT N OF THIS BOUNDARY TO HAIL. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION...GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/ SUGGESTS THAT HAIL SIZE WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN AN INCH OR SO. ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLIGHTLY LESS STABLE...BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY STABLE ATTM TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN A VERY MARGINAL WIND/TORNADO THREAT. AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WITH MAIN FORCING MECHANISM LIMITED TO WARM ADVECTION -- AND THUS CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS N OF WARM FRONT...AMOUNT OF WARM-SECTOR SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION REMAINS UNCLEAR ATTM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED/WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 11/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... 32419610 34799509 35749380 35478989 34368754 32828759 31949356 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 18:18:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 13:18:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511141818.jAEII4op006745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141816 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-142315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2414 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL CO...SRN WY AND NERN UT ABOVE 6000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 141816Z - 142315Z HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES IN CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS SRN WY...NERN UT...AND MUCH OF NRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CO DURING THE NEXT 3-4 HRS. A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL WY INTO SERN ID WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH SRN WY/NERN UT INTO NRN CO THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HRS. THE DURATION OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FROM 3-4 HRS...WHEN STRONG FRONTAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERLAYS STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF STRONG/DIGGING MID-UPPER JET MAX NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN UT/SERN ID. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT NLDN DATA CONFIRM THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE STRONGEST AND DEEPEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW THAT WILL TURN NNWLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL FAVOR WRN/NRN UPSLOPE REGIONS WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION THE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SUPPORT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVER SRN WY/NERN UT AND MUCH OF NRN CO AROUND 00Z...AND OVER CENTRAL CO ROCKIES BY 03Z...AS STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. ..CROSBIE.. 11/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... 42380618 42660724 42580849 42011081 41861135 41311147 40411133 40151069 40140931 39170829 38830668 39020568 39570484 41390469 41680505 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 19:13:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 14:13:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511141915.jAEJF4ko023418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141912 TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2415 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ECNTRL AR...WRN TN...EXTREME NWRN MS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141912Z - 142045Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NRN STREAM IMPULSE MIGRATING ACROSS NWRN MO...WITH SRN-MOST INFLUENCE GRAZING THE OZARKS THIS AFTN. PRESSURE FALLS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY HAVE INCREASED NOTABLY SINCE 15Z. THIS HAS AIDED IN AN ACCELERATION OF THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM NERN TX INTO CNTRL AR. CONSEQUENTLY...THE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS HAS SURGED NNEWD INTO CNTRL AR AND WRN TN...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING. CU STREETS HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT INTO CBS ACROSS SRN AR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. TSTMS ARE MOSTLY ELEVATED...BUT COULD BEGIN TO ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/WARM SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S. IF THIS OCCURS...EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM EAST OF LITTLE ROCK TO VCNTY MEMPHIS. IF TSTMS STAY SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATED N OF THE WARM FRONT...HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ..RACY.. 11/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... 34289295 35249232 35949011 36308924 35768884 35138893 34529005 33779196 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 21:45:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 16:45:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511142144.jAELiQ1E019526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142142 TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN AR...WRN TN...EXTREME NWRN MS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 861... VALID 142142Z - 142315Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP QUICKLY NWD THROUGH THE MS VLY...NORTH OF KMEM THEN INTO SRN KY. THE COLD WEDGE IN THE OZARKS HAS BEEN A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO SCOUR ALONG THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD DO SO THIS EVENING. EARLIER BRIEF EPISODE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY TIED TO THE TAIL-END OF THE MO MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...WAS TRANSLATING NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY. BUT...RAPID APPROACH OF A STRONGER JET STREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS /INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NRN TX/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL UPSWING IN TSTMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK AND STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS. THUS...WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY FIELDS THIS AFTN...SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 11/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33359251 33469305 34229334 34909314 35609201 36399105 36498919 36338886 35658874 34848919 34229021 34029127 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 22:57:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 17:57:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511142257.jAEMvFLO005138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142256 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-150130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS....NRN AL...WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142256Z - 150130Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO COULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN A SW-NE BAND FROM SCNTRL MS TO NRN AL/MIDDLE TN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LINKED TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IMPULSE SPREADING NEWD FROM TX/LA ATOP LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WHERE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED A MESOSCALE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN AL/NERN MS AND WEAK ROTATION WAS EVIDENT IN CELLS TRACKING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY A COUPLE OF FACTORS INCLUDING 1) LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...AND 2) WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR BASED ON OKO PROFILER AND VWP DATA IS ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFT ROTATION AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH DISCRETE CELLS...AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS...AND PASSAGE/DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FORCING...SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH OVER THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 11/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 36318554 33788710 31639015 32349070 36438789 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 23:42:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 18:42:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511142341.jAENfijY002927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142340 TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-150115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SRN MO...AR...WRN TN...NWRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 861... VALID 142340Z - 150115Z LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN TORNADO WATCH 861 OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE...RADAR ECHOES WERE INCREASING FROM ERN OK TO NRN AR AND SRN MO. A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS...NORTH AND WEST OF TORNADO WATCH 861...WITHIN THE HOUR. RAPID CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY NWD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS INTENSIFYING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS SEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FROM SERN OK INTO CNTRL AR APPEARS TO BE SURGING NWD ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM ERN OK TO NRN AR. WHILE THIS CONVECTION WAS GENERALLY DEVELOPING ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT AND A CONTINUING INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN COINCIDENT WITH THIS AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND INTENSIFYING LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO RESULT IN GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH TIME. EXPECT THE THREAT OF ELEVATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH HAIL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE IMMINENT THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM. ..CARBIN.. 11/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 35058877 33289304 34759351 34359525 34949603 36589514 37728993 36848940 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 02:57:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 21:57:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511150257.jAF2v5gi021741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150256 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-150530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2419 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR...SRN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY/TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150256Z - 150530Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SRN PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY. WATCHES ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS STEADILY STRENGTHENED THROUGH THE EVENING IN AN EXTENSIVE BAND FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. STORMS HAVE SO FAR REMAINED SUB-SEVERE POSSIBLY DUE TO MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACT ON A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS INCREASING FROM OK ENEWD TO WRN KY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOSTLY NORTH OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHANCE FOR HAIL. CHANCE FOR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS...AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL...MAY INCREASE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES OVER PARTS OF THE REGION NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34569377 34129549 35889648 36599392 38168871 38668655 36988700 35699093 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 05:09:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 00:09:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511150509.jAF599WN006370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150508 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-150645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150508Z - 150645Z CLUSTER OF INTENSE TSTMS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NERN OK MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS AND SWRN MO INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE AREA AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG A VARIETY OF SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE THAT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY FROM SRN KS INTO SWRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY ONGOING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD FROM NERN OK ATTM. RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT DUE TO PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 36999493 37059701 38419697 38409274 37099191 36969384 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 08:24:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 03:24:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511150823.jAF8NKSa021128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150822 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-151015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NRN AR/SRN MO/WRN KS/SRN IL/SRN IN/PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 862...863... VALID 150822Z - 151015Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 862 AND 863...WITH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ALSO CONTINUING -- ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MO ENEWD ALONG/INVOF THE OH RIVER. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE INVOF MAIN WARM FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER N CENTRAL OK EWD ACROSS FAR SRN MO AND THEN ENEWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE OH RIVER. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS GREATER S OF WARM FRONT...MAIN FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARY. EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY AND AREAS N FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH MORE ISOLATED/CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW 862/863 S OF WARM FRONT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NWD TOWARD THE FRONT. THOUGH THIS MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE THUS FAR...TORNADO THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE SHOULD A FEW STRONGER STORMS EVOLVE GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR RAPID ACQUISITION OF ROTATION WITH ANY STRONGER CELL. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND DRY SLOT APPARENTLY DEVELOPING/SPREADING EWD ACCORDING TO LATEST WV IMAGERY -- IN SUPPORT OF MODEL FORECASTS...EXPECT MAIN SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS WW 862/AWAY FROM CENTRAL OK WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36719706 38308569 36318602 35269111 34669583 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 08:59:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 03:59:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511150858.jAF8wkT3013088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150857 MOZ000-KSZ000-151000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2422 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SE KS...W CENTRAL AND SW MO. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150857Z - 151000Z SEVERE TSTM THREAT...MAINLY LIMITED TO HAIL...WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO. THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE DISCUSSED WITH LOCAL WFO/S SHORTLY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS E/SE KS INTO W/SW MO IN THE REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/STRONG ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN NRN OK AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER WRN KS. A 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ IS FEEDING MOISTURE N OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...AND 06Z OBS PLUS RECENT RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE OF 1000-150O J/KG OVERSPREADING SE KS/SW MO THIS MORNING. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT...AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 30-60 MIN. ..THOMPSON.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38749370 38329337 37449349 37259392 37159497 37219585 37299684 37749721 38289740 38639717 38809618 38859447 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 12:08:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 07:08:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151207.jAFC7fBh006761@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151204 ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-151400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK/NERN TX/SRN MO/AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151204Z - 151400Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH TIME AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MS RIVER. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 15/14Z...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT LIKELY TO BEGIN WITHIN THIS WW AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS ERN OK/N TX ATTM...S OF SURFACE LOW NOW ANALYZED IN FAR NERN OK. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS FAR SRN MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND N OF THIS FRONT. WITHIN WARM SECTOR...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ EXISTS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO SRN MO WITH TIME AS WARM FRONT RETREATS AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW. RAOBS FROM 15/06Z WITHIN WW AREA SHOW 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE...WHICH SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION -- NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER FAR ERN OK. ALL DATA -- FROM PROFILERS/VWPS TO RAOBS TO MODEL FORECASTS -- REVEAL WIND PROFILES FEATURING INCREASINGLY-STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW INITIATING STORMS TO RAPIDLY ACQUIRE MESOCYCLONIC ROTATION. THOUGH STORM MODE SHOULD BECOME QUASI-LINEAR INVOF COLD FRONT...EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWPS/SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO BECOME UNCAPPED BY MID-MORNING...EXPECT OTHER BANDS OF MORE ISOLATED/SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT. THREAT FOR TORNADOES -- WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT -- MAY BE PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED WITHIN THESE PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN AR/SERN MO FROM ROUGHLY MIDDAY ONWARD. THOUGH INITIAL WATCH WILL LIKELY REMAIN W OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE LATER THIS MORNING E OF THE MS RIVER...LIKELY REQUIRING ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCES FROM MS NWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER. ..GOSS.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32989205 32919627 34369552 37119452 38099093 37828957 35019021  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 13:49:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 08:49:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151348.jAFDmh9N016426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151347 IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-151745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NEB/FAR NE KS INTO WRN IA/SW MN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 151347Z - 151745Z A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT/OCNLY MDT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FROM FAR ERN NEB/FAR NE KS INTO WRN IA/SW MN. INCREASINGLY STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ADVERSELY IMPACT LOCAL CONDITIONS. LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW OCCURRING WITHIN THE WRN PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. SIMILAR TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...12Z RUC/06Z NAM AND LATEST SREF PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A SIMILAR CHANGE-OVER WILL OCCUR PROGRESSIVELY EWD ACROSS WRN IA/SW MN THROUGH 15Z-18Z...COINCIDENT WITH CAA/ONSET OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH...WITH WEAK STATIC STABILITY CONTRIBUTING TO SOME ENHANCED NORTH-SOUTH BANDING. IN ADDITION...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NWLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE ALREADY NOTED WITHIN EARLY MORNING NELIGH NEB PROFILER DATA PER 40-50 KTS IN LOWEST FEW KM. ..GUYER.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP... 44329637 44139387 43229374 40889440 39989513 39329609 40059705 42749693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 14:33:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 09:33:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151432.jAFEWlu1017010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151432 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151431 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-151530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...CNTRL/SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151431Z - 151530Z TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 15-16Z FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. 14Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT ALONG THE OH RVR WEST TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER SWRN MO. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT WAS FARTHER N...FROM THE LOW NEWD INTO SCNTRL IL AND CNTRL IND. AS THE PCPN SHIELD N OF THE OH RVR BECOMES MORE CELLULAR...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP QUICKLY NWD TO WHERE THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT IS LOCATED. WARM MOIST AIR MASS...VERY STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38559329 39849010 40088709 40058568 39178547 38378601 38098740 37659329 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 15:33:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 10:33:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151532.jAFFWOgS029829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151531 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151531 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-151730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0931 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...MUCH OF LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151531Z - 151730Z PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. ONE OR MORE WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS KS. DEEPENING SFC LOW WAS OVER SWRN MO AND SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO WCNTRL IL THIS AFTN. STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY THROUGH THE AFTN...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE DYNAMIC SITUATION AT HAND...SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONFLUENT BANDS WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONE SUCH BAND APPEARS TO BE FORMING FROM SWRN-NERN LA...SIMILAR TO THE 00Z WRF-NMM SOLUTION. STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY REGION THIS AFTN WHERE VERY MOIST/WARM AIR MASS WILL RESIDE. THOUGH STRONGER UVV SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO THE OH VLY/MIDWEST... TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTN FARTHER S AND COULD GET A BOOST FROM A SUBTLE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS SRN TX ATTM. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY. FARTHER W...A LINE OF TSTMS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN TX. THIS LINEAR MODE WILL CONTAIN EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE LWR MS VLY THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30409665 32929562 32888859 29429116 29479704 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 16:15:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 11:15:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151614.jAFGEpLm001580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151614 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151613 INZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-151815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN OK...EXTREME NERN TX...AR...SRN MO...EXTREME SRN IL...FAR WRN KY...WRN TN...NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 864...865... VALID 151613Z - 151815Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE. GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...WILL EXIST IN A REGION BOUNDED BY A LITTLE ROCK AR-VICHY MO-SALEM IL-EVANSVILLE IND-CROSSVILLE TN LINE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTN. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS EXIST FROM THE KSTL AREA NEWD INTO CNTRL IL. DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SWRN MO WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THESE FALLS THROUGH MID-AFTN. THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE OH VLY WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT N OF THE OH RVR... BUT WAS A LITTLE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE OZARKS. AS THE LOW REDEVELOPS NEWD...THE WARM AIR SHOULD ADVANCE INTO ECNTRL MO-CNTRL IL-CNTRL IND LINE BY MID-AFTN. STRONGEST LLJ AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXIST FROM THE MS DELTA NWD INTO WRN KY AND CNTRL IND BENEATH INCREASING SWLY FLOW OF 100+ KTS AT H5. RESULTANT DEEP/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF AR INTO ECNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY AND WRN TN. PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS...ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AR AND SRN MO WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITH BOTH DISCRETE AND MIXED LINEAR-DISCRETE MODES LIKELY TO EXIST. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W-E ACROSS SRN MO/AR/NERN TX AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD... 33099522 34389540 35379446 37319340 38699146 39348842 39068658 36538713 32908832 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 17:57:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 12:57:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151756.jAFHuHnq015337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151755 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-152000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/SERN IND...WCNTRL/SWRN OH AND NWRN/NCNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151755Z - 152000Z TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN/CNTRL IND...SWRN/WCNTRL OH AND PERHAPS NWRN/NCNTRL KY. THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SRN IND AND CNTRL OH EARLY THIS AFTN AND SHOULD CONTINUE NWD TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA AND INTO WCNTRL OH BY 21Z. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/S OF THE FRONT AND SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY AS THE SWLY LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EWD LATER THIS AFTN. CHARACTER OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN IND HAS ALREADY EVOLVED INTO DISCRETE CELLS. VWP FROM WILMINGTON OH SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE THAT WILL ONLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AND SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE AFTER 21-22Z. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 40498627 40838482 40558293 38478404 38038445 37638501 37648576 37678637 38088629 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 18:37:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 13:37:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151836.jAFIaiNS018663@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151834 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2429 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...WRN KY...ECNTRL/SERN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SWRN IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 864...865...866... VALID 151834Z - 152030Z HIGH PROBABILITY FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z ACROSS EXTREME SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY AND WRN TN. SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO ECNTRL MO AS OF 18Z...JUST W OF KSTL. THE WARM FRONT HAS ADVANCED INTO SRN IL AND SRN IND AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH A WARM/HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER NOW IN PLACE OVER ALL OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND SWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO CNTRL IL BY LATE AFTN...WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING NWD INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND AR THROUGH THE AFTN. TSTMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS ERN AR HAVE INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MS VLY AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. OTHER STORMS HAVE ALSO INTENSIFIED FROM NEAR KSTL SWWD INTO CNTRL AR ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EXIST FROM THE MEMPHIS AREA NWD INTO SERN MO...SRN IL EWD INTO SWRN IND...FAR W KY. PAH/MEM VWPS SHOW 0-1KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS AND 0-3KM SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TORNADOES. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION INTO DISCRETE CELLS NOTED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM ALONG THE MS RVR FROM MEMPHIS NWD INTO SRN IL...THEN EWD INTO SRN IND...FAR W KY AND WRN TN THROUGH 22Z. FARTHER W AND S...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE EWD. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES HAVE RELAXED SOMEWHAT OWING TO A WEAKENING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. BUT...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIXED MODE OF DISCRETE CELLS/SHORT LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR ALONG THE FRONT. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF... 34079329 36589165 38039111 39119099 40158957 40298803 39578700 38528638 36138747 33358907 33209156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 19:32:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 14:32:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151931.jAFJVYWt032097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151930 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/IA/EXTREME WRN WI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 151930Z - 160030Z ...AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA WITH RAIN GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI LATE THIS AFTN... SFC ANALYSIS FROM 19Z INDICATES SFC LOW JUST WEST OF STL WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD TO NEAR DSM/MWM/DTL. WARM FRONT IS MOVING NWD ACROSS CNTRL IL/NRN IND INTO SRN LOWER MI. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET NOW ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 100 KT BY EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN IL/LAKE MI TONIGHT. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS /NEAR 1-2 MB PER HOUR/ ARE NOTED ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL. ALTHOUGH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW /PER LATEST 850MB TEMPERATURES/ A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AT THE SFC WILL PROMOTE RAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA SUGGEST RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM THE TWIN CITIES SWD TO RST/ALO BETWEEN 21-23Z. SNOW MAY BEGIN EARLIER AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS /IE MS RIVER BLUFFS/ OWING TO THE SHALLOW WARM LAYER. BECAUSE THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC LIFT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 16/00Z...SNOW RATES INITIALLY WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH PER HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. VERY STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. ..TAYLOR.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 45219647 40599588 40569307 41939148 42889099 43739113 44579158 45109242 45299299 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 19:35:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 14:35:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511151934.jAFJYsbI002494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151932 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-152100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...CNTRL/SRN IND...WCNTRL/SWRN OH...NWRN KY...NWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151932Z - 152100Z THERE WILL BE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS THE OH VLY REGION FROM SRN IL/NWRN TN EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN IND... WCNTRL/SWRN OH AND NWRN KY. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WWS 865/866 BY 21Z. A 999 MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NE OF KSTL AT 19Z. THE WARM FRONT HAS JUMPED TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA AND IS MOVING INTO WCNTRL OH ATTM. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/S OF THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOSING NWD INTO THE OH/TN VLYS. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE OH VLY. PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS INTENSIFIED FROM SRN IL INTO WRN TN AS IT MOVED INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NOTED. OVERLAY OF 18Z RAOB DATA AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST CROSS-OVER BETWEEN SLY H85 WINDS AND THE WSWLY H5 WINDS EXISTS ACROSS SRN IND/NWRN KY/SWRN OH AT MID-AFTN. LATEST VWP FROM PAH/EVANSVILLE/WILMINGTON OHIO SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES /0-1KM SHEAR 35+ KTS/ AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS WITHIN SERN QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW/PRESSURE FALL AXIS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND MIXED MODES OF LINE SEGMENTS/ DISCRETE CELLS WILL REMAIN LIKELY DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN IND...NWRN KY...WRN TN AND SWRN/WCNTRL OH WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 38558996 40028708 40408473 40348310 39938280 39028337 37958471 35918786 35958934 37258918  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 20:57:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 15:57:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511152056.jAFKubvH014328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152055 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-152200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NWRN AL...MIDDLE/WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152055Z - 152200Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY EAST OF WT 865 TO INCLUDE MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF NWRN AL. THIS NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY REPLACE PARTS OF WT 865 TO EXTEND IT IN DURATION ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TN AND NRN MS. LLJ/UPPER JET AXES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING ATOP A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTN AND THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN LATER THIS AFTN. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN MS. LOW-DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN... 35088599 33998677 32988760 33219100 36558901 36588703 36578488 36058523 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 21:19:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 16:19:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511152118.jAFLIbNP000893@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152117 MSZ000-LAZ000-152245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LA AND SWRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 867... VALID 152117Z - 152245Z THE MAJORITY OF THE MASS CONVERGENCE WAS LOCATED N OF THE REGION THIS AFTN. BUT...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE EJECTING NEWD FROM THE UPPER TX COAST...HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL LA NEWD INTO CNTRL MS. TSTMS SEEM TO BE FAVORING A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM THE MS DELTA SWWD TO THE UPPER TX COAST...WITH OTHER STORMS ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL LA INTO ECNTRL TX. GIVEN THE VEERING/WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...HELICITY HAS RELAXED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH. BUT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN AN OTHERWISE DOMINANT LINE SEGMENT ENVIRONMENT. THUS...IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS NERN LA/SWRN MS NEWD INTO THE TN/OH VLYS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30519363 32849245 32808948 31089069 30469188 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 21:43:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 16:43:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511152142.jAFLgZ2n020069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152140 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-152315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...EXTREME SRN LWR MI AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152140Z - 152315Z THE TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN IND...EXTREME SRN LWR MI AND NWRN OH. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A PSBL WW. WARMER AIR WAS WORKING NWD INTO NRN IND AND NRN OH LATE THIS AFTN AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER CNTRL IL. PER SATL/RADAR...TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS NERN IND...WITH OTHER STORMS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER ECNTRL IL. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE SWLY LLJ AXIS...THE WARM AIR WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO SRN LWR MI LATER THIS EVENING...WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING/MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD TOWARD SRN LWR MI. LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. STORMS THAT WILL INITIALLY BE ELEVATED...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP/EVOLVE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN THE RAPIDLY MODIFYING AIR MASS...INCREASING THE RISKS FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 41088698 41918512 42378397 42298310 41328320 40988438 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 00:00:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 19:00:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511152359.jAFNxO0s010943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152358 KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TN...KY...NRN MS/AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 868...869... VALID 152358Z - 160130Z LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TORNADOES CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCHES 868 AND 869 THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE AND PERSISTENT CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE BEEN MOVING TOWARD MIDDLE TN AND SCNTRL KY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS CROSSING A CORRIDOR WHERE INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED ROTATING STORMS AND TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. ONE OF THESE CELLS HAS JUST CROSSED BWG AREA AND ADDITIONAL INTENSE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORMS ARE NOW MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NASHVILLE AREA FROM THE WEST AT 40-50KT. ..CARBIN.. 11/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 37028672 38538524 38258436 36458471 35298567 34488671 34568898 35068872 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 00:21:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 19:21:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160021.jAG0L7Uv023404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160020 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-160115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS AND AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160020Z - 160115Z A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SRN MS AND MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN AL...TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 867 AND THE SRN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH 869. EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST INTO LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM THE MS DELTA REGION NEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO NERN AL OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG THE LINE...A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG SHEAR EVIDENT IN EVENING RAOBS AND VWP DATA. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30178953 31058972 31059023 32828900 32888807 33438729 34948582 33518538 31218710 30328753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 00:58:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 19:58:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160057.jAG0vXxB013455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160056 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-160700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA/MUCH OF WI/UPPER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 160056Z - 160700Z ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TONIGHT FROM SW AND CNTRL WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI... SFC LOW NOW DOWN TO 995MB NEAR CHICAGO WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD STURGEON BAY BY 06Z WITH STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSED ACROSS ERN WI/WRN LAKE MI. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 120 KT OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP FROM ERN IA/SWRN WI INTO NERN WI AND UPPER MI. PRECIPITATION HAS RECENTLY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW ACROSS CNTRL WI PER LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS. THE ETA FORECAST 2M TEMPS ARE LIKELY TOO WARM AS COMPARED TO LATEST OBSERVED TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DYNAMIC COOLING AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS WILL FAVOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ETA/GFS SOLNS INDICATE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOW TRACK...FROM SWRN WI INTO UPPER MI. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ONE OR MORE BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH DEEP ASCENT OCCURRING FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVIER SNOW SPREADING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA AFTER 06Z. THIS FIRST MAJOR SNOW OF THE YEAR WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS...WHICH WILL CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF NEW SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY. ..TAYLOR.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 47799009 46539219 43419261 42929214 42628990 43118912 44898764 46238676 46868672 47468746 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 01:53:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 20:53:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160152.jAG1qJsV015215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160151 WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-160245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160151Z - 160245Z A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KY AND ERN TN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST AT OVER 50KT AND INTO PARTS OF ERN KY AND NERN TN THROUGH LATE EVENING. WARM AND MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF VERY STRONG FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUING THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... 35708464 36728501 38258383 38208291 38238198 35838305 35258425 35428456 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 02:08:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 21:08:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160207.jAG27x4q027151@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160206 OHZ000-WVZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-160330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2439 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...WRN/CNTRL OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870... VALID 160206Z - 160330Z GRADUAL DECLINE IN STORM INTENSITY NOTED OVER PARTS OF OH/MI LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 870 MAY BE CLEARED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY ACROSS NRN/WRN SECTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 870. HOWEVER... DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAIN FORMIDABLE. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA DEPICTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN MI EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE. DIAGNOSTIC PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR DISCRETE CELLS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITHIN LARGER RAIN AREA. WITH COLD FRONT AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT STILL MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT PERSISTS AT PRESENT. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR... 41358456 42878415 42868272 41678278 41958156 40348209 39758216 39278175 38308252 38308400 39618385 40748373 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 02:31:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 21:31:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160230.jAG2UViw009509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160229 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-160400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2440 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0829 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871... VALID 160229Z - 160400Z EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES EAST ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 871 THIS EVENING. GIVEN WELL-DEVELOPED AND DEEP COLD POOL THAT HAS EVOLVED BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION...AND THE PRESENCE OF MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE...EXPECT STRONG UPDRAFTS TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. BOWING LINE SEGMENT INTERSECTIONS WILL ALSO BE AREAS WHERE STORMS CAN ACQUIRE ROTATION AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THESE FEATURES. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29909140 31229082 32828939 35028585 33108556 31878701 30748935 30339014 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 04:20:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 23:20:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160419.jAG4JIug007621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160418 TNZ000-ALZ000-160445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2441 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 869...871...872... VALID 160418Z - 160445Z INTENSE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 872 WITHIN THE HOUR. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS MIDDLE TN AS THE STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS OVER THE REGION AND TORNADO WATCH 869 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN... 36588451 34668633 34998645 36608548 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 04:30:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 23:30:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160430.jAG4UBqJ012973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160429 OHZ000-160500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2442 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870... VALID 160429Z - 160500Z LOW-TOPPED LINE OF STRONGER CELLS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO NWRN OH. HOWEVER...LACK OF CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THIS CONVECTION CONFIRMS THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. NONETHELESS...VERY INTENSE WIND FIELDS ARE NOTED ON CLE VWP AND A SEVERE WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WATCH 870 WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR AND...BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER OH. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39828221 40228340 41928333 41918264 41978147 41458156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 04:40:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 23:40:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160440.jAG4e4MI019376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160418 TNZ000-ALZ000-160445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2441 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 869...871...872... VALID 160418Z - 160445Z INTENSE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 872 WITHIN THE HOUR. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS MIDDLE TN AS THE STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS OVER THE REGION AND TORNADO WATCH 869 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN... 36588451 34668633 34998645 36608548  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 04:49:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 23:49:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160448.jAG4mHpn023071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160429 OHZ000-160500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2442 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870... VALID 160429Z - 160500Z LOW-TOPPED LINE OF STRONGER CELLS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO NWRN OH. HOWEVER...LACK OF CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THIS CONVECTION CONFIRMS THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. NONETHELESS...VERY INTENSE WIND FIELDS ARE NOTED ON CLE VWP AND A SEVERE WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WATCH 870 WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR AND...BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER OH. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39828221 40228340 41928333 41918264 41978147 41458156  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 05:10:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 00:10:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160509.jAG59ZDM004492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160507 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160507 WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/TN...NRN/CNTRL/SWRN AL...SERN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871...872... VALID 160507Z - 160600Z EXTENSIVE PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND TRAILS SSWWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MS DELTA. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN CG ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A STEADY DECLINE IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE OF FORCING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS STORMS IN WATCH 872 MOVE ACROSS THE WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS. WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER...REMAIN VERY INTENSE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AND A FEW SEVERE GUSTS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY. FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE GREATER MOISTURE EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS WATCH 871...WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION WERE CONTRIBUTING TO A DEMISE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. STRONG GUSTS MAY STILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 31168792 31148918 32968758 35018565 36028501 38168370 38218199 35028407 34968548 33208559  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 05:35:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 00:35:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160534.jAG5YOj0016555@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160530 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160530 MIZ000-WIZ000-160930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE WI/UPPER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 160530Z - 160930Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE SPREADING N/NE ACROSS FAR NE WI/UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HINDERED BY MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES...SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH 1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS. 00Z UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS/SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES PROGRESSIVELY STACKED/CLOSED LOW ACROSS FAR ERN WI/LAKE MI. AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURGING DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE IS SERVING TO INCREASE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY LATE THIS EVENING...WITH CG LIGHTNING HAVING DISTINCTLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS ACROSS THE ERN MI U.P. AND LAKE MI. RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED BAND OF SNOW HAS PERSISTED FROM NEAR OSHKOSH NWD TO THE RHINELANDER/IRON MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH DYNAMIC COOLING/SUFFICIENTLY HIGH PRECIP RATES PROMOTING SNOW PRECIP-TYPE. COINCIDENT WITH NEWD TRACK OF CYCLONE...THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION N/NE ACROSS FAR NE WI/UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER/MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SNOW RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE INTENSE N-S ORIENTED BANDS...ESPECIALLY AS AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY FURTHERS TENDENCY FOR MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT. ..GUYER.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB... 46788751 46278689 45488758 44498811 44778901 45328905 45708923 46058928 47128868 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 08:06:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 03:06:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511160805.jAG85Ew4021042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160803 VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2445 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WV/WRN VA/FAR ERN TN/WRN NC/WRN SC/NRN AND CENTRAL GA/ERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160803Z - 161000Z SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED/LOCAL...BUT MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVECTIVE LINE PROGRESSES EWD. NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS AL AND THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS ATTM...THOUGH RADAR AND LIGHTNING IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME. THIS IS AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY FROM SRN AL NNEWD WHERE LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINS. DESPITE THIS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA -- AHEAD OF LARGE/ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN STRONGER SEGMENTS ALONG CONVECTIVE LINE. ..GOSS.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...BMX... 33008576 37688232 39478049 39457926 38877850 34388213 33228363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 10:43:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 05:43:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511161042.jAGAgtYp013153@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161038 NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-161245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2446 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL PA/ERN WV PANHANDLE...PARTS OF MD...AND NRN AND WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161038Z - 161245Z LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN PA/ERN WV AND FAR SWRN VA ATTM. WW IS BEING CONSIDERED...THOUGH NEED FOR ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION -- DEVOID OF CG LIGHTNING FROM CENTRAL WV NWD -- CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ATTM. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW NEUTRAL TO MINIMALLY-BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT...ABOVE A SLIGHTLY-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THOUGH FORCING MECHANISM REMAINS UNCLEAR AS CONVECTIVE LINE REMAINS WELL AHEAD OF FRONT -- AND POORLY-SIMULATED BY ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS...CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN A SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS -- MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT. WITH 60-PLUS KT FLOW INDICATED AT 850 MB ACROSS THIS REGION...LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE THUS FAR APPEARS TO BE THE SLIGHTLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. HOWEVER UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL THAT THIS SLIGHTLY-LESS-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY FACILITATE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY LOW-PROBABILITY SCENARIO ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS SCENARIO AND POSSIBLE NEED FOR WW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...RLX... 41967838 43247789 43287622 42027585 40287636 37337791 36957943 37038055 38058023 39537855 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 15:47:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 10:47:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511161547.jAGFkxT7022261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161544 MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-161715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0944 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN PA...ERN NY...WRN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 161544Z - 161715Z ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS EXTREME NERN PA...ERN NY AND WRN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. STRONG ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW WAS SHIFTING QUICKLY NEWD INTO QUEBEC LATE THIS MORNING. BUT...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORCING WAS GRAZING PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL NY SWD INTO CNTRL PA THAT HAVE SHOWN A MARGINAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THIS ENHANCED UVV MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. VSBL SATL SHOWS SOME BINOVC ACROSS MAINLY ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL PROBABLY DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTN OWING TO HEATING. THUS...THE BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FURTHER INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVES INTO ERN NY IN A FEW HOURS. STRONG WSWLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN WIND COULD ENCOURAGE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND INCREASE THE RISK OF A ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MAIN NEGATIVE WILL BE THE OVERALL LIMITED DEEP FORCING THAT IS TYPICALLY OBSERVED IN A WELL-DEFINED NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND THAT PRODUCES DAMAGING WIND. BUT...GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE NON-ZERO. ..RACY.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... 41437576 44937464 44997308 44027307 43137321 42317301 41267374 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 17:35:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 12:35:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511161734.jAGHYUhG012750@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161733 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161733 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-161900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM SERN NY SWD INTO DELMARVA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161733Z - 161900Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN FROM SERN NY SWD ACROSS ERN PA...NJ...DE...CNTRL/ERN MD AND NRN VA. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM CNTRL NY SWD ACROSS CNTRL PA AND WRN VA. A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION EXISTS 40-50 MILES EAST OF THE FRONT AND SEEMS TO BE INTENSIFYING BASED ON COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER VSBL SATL IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE GRADUALLY STEEPENING AHEAD OF THIS BAND WHERE BINOVC HAVE BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPER LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE AFTN...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL RAINBAND. COMBINATION OF AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED UVV WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN. STRONG WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS TO DEVELOP AND ISOLD-SCT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 11/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 38547775 39757671 41257580 41357474 41167341 38567491 38397633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 00:13:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 19:13:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511170012.jAH0Cimf025038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170011 MIZ000-170615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2449 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 170011Z - 170615Z ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OF THE SEASON... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ANTRIM/OTSEGO/MONTMORENCY COUNTIES IN NRN LOWER MI. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS TO NNW...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT SNOWBAND BUT ULTIMATELY DISRUPT ORIENTATION. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 18Z/21Z RUC AND 18Z NAM SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE BANDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF TRAVERSE CITY LATER THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ONLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE GIVEN ONGOING STRONG COLD ADVECTION. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...RESULTING IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY EARLY THU MORNING. ..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 11/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR... 44088550 44138623 45178631 45428445 45168371 44488383 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 10:06:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 05:06:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511211005.jALA5o0G007088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211004 FLZ000-211130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2450 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211004Z - 211130Z POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 0950Z...TAMPA RADAR DATA SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING FROM MANATEE COUNTY SWWD TO 60 W OF FMY...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE W COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CURRENT EXISTS N OF CTY...HOWEVER CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. AS A CONSEQUENCE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ARE GRADUALLY VEERING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NNE. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INVOF ONGOING STORMS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F WERE RESULTING IN SBCAPES OF AROUND 900 J/KG. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC AND NAM SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST OVERSPREADS MOIST WARM SECTOR. LOCAL VWPS AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF AROUND 35 KTS. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...IT APPEARS THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/VEERING WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..MEAD.. 11/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29428324 29678276 29368159 28498142 27098153 26588199 26848249 27748280 28968299 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 15:17:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 10:17:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511211516.jALFGUYA018709@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211515 NCZ000-SCZ000-211715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2451 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211515Z - 211715Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ALONG CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH AND WILMINGTON. AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG COASTAL FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR/ACROSS CAPE FEAR INTO THE MOREHEAD CITY VICINITY BY 18Z...THEN ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND/OUTER BANKS AREAS BY AROUND 21Z. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN STABLE OVER INLAND AREAS...WEAK DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR...EAST NORTHEAST OF LOW CENTER...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS. IF THIS OCCURS...DEEP FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO EXISTS...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS LARGE/HAIL. ..KERR.. 11/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... 34097865 34487774 34897720 35707617 35887555 35567515 35007520 34187642 33707746 33497804 33487844 33787865 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 20:51:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 15:51:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511212050.jALKo87w018125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212049 NCZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2452 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 873... VALID 212049Z - 212215Z CONTINUE WW. STRONGEST 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFF VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF LEAD WAVE ALONG COASTAL FRONT...WHICH HAS FORMED A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ...JUST NOW ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTH OF MOREHEAD CITY INTO THE OUTER BANKS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS DO OCCUR...SHEAR PROFILES IN WARM SECTOR WITH CAPE TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 11/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... 34297789 35097786 35697700 36167638 36427581 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 13:04:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 08:04:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511221303.jAMD32lA024591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221301 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-221800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2453 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/FAR WRN MA...VT...NH...WRN/NRN ME CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 221301Z - 221800Z HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN ADIRONDACK AND CATSKILL MTNS OF ERN NY THROUGH 16Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALLING FROM 2000 FT TO AROUND 5O0 FT BY 18Z. FURTHER EAST...HEAVY SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER VT/NRN NH AND THE BERKSHIRE MTNS OF FAR NWRN MA BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 1000 FT IN WRN VT/FAR NWRN MA BY 18Z. TOTAL DURATION OF HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN 4 HRS IN THE CATSKILL MTNS...BUT COULD BE FROM 6-8 HRS IN THE ADIRONDACK...WHITE/GREEN AND BERKSHIRE MTNS. HVY SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS /ABOVE 1500 FT/ OF NRN/WRN ME. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY GREATER THAN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM AND UPPER LOW CENTERED IN SERN VA NNEWD INTO NRN VT. MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS ZONE...ALLOWING FOR A FOCUSED 30-50 MILE WIDE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION PER RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. CURRENT SNOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION WERE AROUND 2500 FT BASED ON 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z REGIONAL SFC OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z CAR AND ALB SOUNDINGS. TWO FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER SNOW ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OH NEWD TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AT 12Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ESEWD AROUND 20 KTS...BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. THUS...DYNAMIC COOLING EFFECTS ALOFT WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR ALLOWING FOR SNOW LEVELS TO GRADUALLY FALL THIS MORNING. WITH TIME...AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE DRAMATIC LOWERING IN SNOW LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OVER SRN NJ WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE MID LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER ERN NY AND WRN/NRN VT. ADDITIONALLY...A GRADUAL REORIENTATION TO NORTH-SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE THE LONGEST DURATION /6-8 HRS/ OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE IN A NARROW ZONE /50 MILES WIDE/ OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN VT/FAR NWRN MA AND ECENTRAL NY THROUGH 19Z. ..CROSBIE.. 11/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 47416920 46706930 45716972 44437079 43407201 42297316 42097417 42107523 42427568 43097520 44017432 44617385 45077337 45097157 45957025 46776992 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 18:22:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 13:22:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511221821.jAMILZvr012279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221821 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221820 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-222245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NY / VT AND WRN NH / WRN MA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 221820Z - 222245Z SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-19Z...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH 23Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.50-1.00 IN/HR ARE LIKELY. TROPOSPHERIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON BACKSIDE OF LOW AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD...WITH N-S BAND OF DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETTING UP OVER VT. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION/BACKING SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG THE ERN CHAMPLAIN AND HUDSON VALLEYS AND INTO VT AND WRN MA...WHERE RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BETWEEN 18-19Z. RADAR TRENDS AS OF 18Z INDICATE 0.10-0.25 IN/HR LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES ARE POSSIBLE...SUPPORTING 1 IN/HR WET SNOW RATES. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER AND SNOW WILL BE MOST PROLONGED. ..JEWELL.. 11/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 45047142 43217218 42107312 42157353 43577386 45007376 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 06:58:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 01:58:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511240656.jAO6uoIp017386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240655 MIZ000-WIZ000-241300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2456 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI/NW LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 240655Z - 241300Z ...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADDITION TO 20-40 MPH WINDS... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE NUMEROUS BANDS OF SNOW...NONE OF WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS POINT. VAD WIND DATA FROM MARQUETTE AND UPPER AIR DATA FROM GREEN BAY INDICATE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NNWLY WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO 10-12K FEET BY 12Z. GIVEN CONTINUED STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES...ONE OR TWO PLUMES MAY FORM WITH A FAVORABLE NW FETCH FROM NRN LAKE MI. IF THAT HAPPENS VERY HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE POSSIBLE...FROM 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. LAKE RELATIVE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...SO THUNDER SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. ..TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB... 45308725 46178885 47488857 47578755 46508494 44968327 43828337 43288470 43278626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 12:39:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 07:39:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511241238.jAOCcQxo017074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241237 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-241830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2457 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AND NCNTRL OH NEAR LAKE ERIE...NW INTO NCNTRL PA...WRN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241237Z - 241830Z ...SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN OH NEAR LAKE ERIE INTO WRN NY... LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE INCREASED ALONG SRN LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME WRN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO NW PA AND WRN NY. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM WARM LAKE ERIE TEMPS /7-9 DEGREES C/ PER LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPS AT 850MB AND ABOVE. VAD WIND DATA FROM CLEVELAND SHOW A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY WITH TIME...FETCH WILL IMPROVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ELONGATED CONVECTIVE PLUMES TO DEVELOP WITH SNOW RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE FROM THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA EWD ACROSS LAKE/ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING COUNTIES INLAND. PRESENCE OF DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOWBANDS. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS WILL ALSO FORM ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER TODAY. ..TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 40558208 41548220 42258093 43307876 43247760 41907750 40887829 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 12:41:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 07:41:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511241239.jAOCds8u017638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241238 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-241845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2458 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN UP OF MI...WRN/CNTRL LOWER MI INTO NRN IND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 241238Z - 241845Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CAPABLE OF 2-3 INCH/HOUR RATES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CNTRL UP OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI WITH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE BAND CURRENTLY FROM APPROXIMATELY 65 NE MQT TO 20 SSE OF HTL. HERE...A FAIRLY LONG FETCH HAS PERSISTED FROM N-CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE MI WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA COUPLED WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 6-9 C ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INDEED...INSPECTION OF 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION HEIGHT OF AROUND 3 KM AGL WITH A 0-3 KM LAPSE RATE OF 8.5 C/KM. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLY LONG FETCH...OPTIMUM INVERSION HEIGHT/ CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DOMINANT SINGLE BANDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN UP INTO NRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. FARTHER TO THE S...SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER CBL DEPTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COMPARATIVELY SHORTER FETCH SUGGEST THAT SNOW BANDS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS...BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN THOSE TO THE N. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER FAR SWRN LOWER MI INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL IND WHERE A SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH/PARCEL MODIFICATION MAY RESULT IN BETTER BAND ORGANIZATION. ..MEAD.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB... 41668654 43008686 45358730 46828796 47208720 47228591 45218447 43178445 41988488 41398533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 12:41:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 07:41:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511241239.jAOCdxmP017670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241237 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-241830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2457 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AND NCNTRL OH NEAR LAKE ERIE...NW INTO NCNTRL PA...WRN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241237Z - 241830Z ...SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN OH NEAR LAKE ERIE INTO WRN NY... LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE INCREASED ALONG SRN LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME WRN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO NW PA AND WRN NY. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM WARM LAKE ERIE TEMPS /7-9 DEGREES C/ PER LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPS AT 850MB AND ABOVE. VAD WIND DATA FROM CLEVELAND SHOW A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY WITH TIME...FETCH WILL IMPROVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ELONGATED CONVECTIVE PLUMES TO DEVELOP WITH SNOW RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE FROM THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA EWD ACROSS LAKE/ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING COUNTIES INLAND. PRESENCE OF DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOWBANDS. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS WILL ALSO FORM ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER TODAY. ..TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 40558208 41548220 42258093 43307876 43247760 41907750 40887829  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 12:42:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 07:42:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511241241.jAOCfF89018083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241238 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-241845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2458 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN UP OF MI...WRN/CNTRL LOWER MI INTO NRN IND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 241238Z - 241845Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CAPABLE OF 2-3 INCH/HOUR RATES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CNTRL UP OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI WITH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE BAND CURRENTLY FROM APPROXIMATELY 65 NE MQT TO 20 SSE OF HTL. HERE...A FAIRLY LONG FETCH HAS PERSISTED FROM N-CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE MI WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA COUPLED WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 6-9 C ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INDEED...INSPECTION OF 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION HEIGHT OF AROUND 3 KM AGL WITH A 0-3 KM LAPSE RATE OF 8.5 C/KM. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLY LONG FETCH...OPTIMUM INVERSION HEIGHT/ CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DOMINANT SINGLE BANDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN UP INTO NRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. FARTHER TO THE S...SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER CBL DEPTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COMPARATIVELY SHORTER FETCH SUGGEST THAT SNOW BANDS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS...BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN THOSE TO THE N. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER FAR SWRN LOWER MI INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL IND WHERE A SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH/PARCEL MODIFICATION MAY RESULT IN BETTER BAND ORGANIZATION. ..MEAD.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB... 41668654 43008686 45358730 46828796 47208720 47228591 45218447 43178445 41988488 41398533  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 16:30:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 11:30:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511241628.jAOGSnZ5025824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241627 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2459 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241627Z - 242030Z HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD FROM MA...EXTREME S-CENTRAL NY AND SRN PORTIONS VT/NH THROUGH 21Z. 2 INCH/HOUR RATES SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN 75-90 NM S OF CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS VT/NH AND NWRN MAINE. RATES LOCALLY MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES/HOUR...PARTICULARLY OVER S FACING SLOPES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT INTERCEPT OPTIMAL OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AMIDST 35-50 KT LLJ. HEAVY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OVER ERN NY...WRN/CENTRAL MA...SRN VT AND INLAND PORTIONS CT/RI DURING PERIOD. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER ERN MA INVOF BOS...MARINE FRONT NEWD ALONG COAST TO NWRN BAY OF FUNDY AND INTO SERN NEW BRUNSWICK...SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT SSEWD PAST CAPE COD OVER ATLANTIC...AND QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS SRN CT INTO SERN NY. SFC FREEZE LINE IS PACKED WITHIN COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES OF MAINE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF SFC CYCLONE. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER MOST OF VT...CENTRAL/NRN NH AND NWRN MAINE WILL REMAIN SUBFREEZING...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT IN LOW LEVELS. EXPECT INTENSE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME -- NOW EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP -- AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE NW-NE OF SFC LOW AS LOW SHIFTS NEWD ALONG COASTAL FRONT. VEERING OF 850 MB FLOW WITH TIME WILL INDICATE SHIFT OF STRONGEST LIFT AND HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL EWD FROM VT INTO NWRN MAINE...WHILE STRONG ISENTROPIC AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOW THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 46517000 46286930 45666861 45006847 44736914 44506975 44187039 43497125 43317152 43597228 44097288 44787302 45017300 45007151 45137142 45227142 45307125 45247116 45357098 45217087 45387079 45427080 45427075 45387063 45427063 45487072 45607062 45737036 45807040 45927024 45957023 45977032 46077030 46147023 46217027 46357021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 17:16:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 12:16:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511241714.jAOHExOA016906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241714 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-WIZ000-242315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2460 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY CONCERNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRENDS VALID 241714Z - 242315Z HVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH HVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER SWRN MI. FARTHER SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MOSTLY SHOWERY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA...WITH HEAVIEST INTO FAR SWRN NY DURING THE DAY...BUT ALSO INCREASING OVER NWRN PA LATE. IN ADDITION...ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FROM LAKE HURON EWD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARDS 00Z. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD WITH MOST RAPID COOLING NOW COMING INTO LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO AREAS. WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR HVY SNOW OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA...WIND FIELDS ARE DIVERGENT AT MIDDAY...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR DISORGANIZATION AND SHOWERS. SIMILAR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FARTHER N INTO THE BUFFALO AREA BUT WILL BE HEAVIER DUE TO LONG EFFECTIVE MOIST FETCH OVER LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO. THIS ENTIRE REGION SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE ORIENTED ALONG LONG AXIS OF LOWER LAKES...AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF HVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ONTARIO NEAR 00Z AFFECTING OSWEGO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES IN NY. INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...ORGANIZED BANDS WILL PERSIST OVER NRN LOWER AND CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DESPITE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE E SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS. ..JEWELL.. 11/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB... 41018097 41517898 42097789 42387630 43357535 44317556 44178075 44868310 46398493 47168594 46828754 46228766 44388649 43468646 42398642 42178593 41958531 42908504 43208505 43808495 43308370 42878107 42528062 42198166 41608249 41258224 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 01:11:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 20:11:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511250109.jAP19dnY011365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250108 NYZ000-250715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2461 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE ONTARIO VICINITY IN NWRN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 250108Z - 250715Z HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY INTENSIFY AS WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN SURFACE FLOW OF 20-40 KTS COMING OFF THE LAKE. DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS FORMED OVER LAKE ONTARIO...IN PART DUE TO LONG EFFECTIVE FETCH EXTENDING WWD ACROSS LAKE HURON. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARDS GEORGIAN BAY. RUC MODEL INDICATES LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK A BIT AS THIS TROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW APPROACH...WHICH APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AS RADAR SHOWS MAIN BAND LIFTING NWD ACROSS OSWEGO INTO SRN JEFFERSON COUNTIES AS OF 01Z. AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED. DIURNAL LAND BREEZE SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT AS WELL...SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD AFFECTING PRIMARILY JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER 06Z...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH MAY BRING THE BAND BACK S PREDOMINATELY INTO OSWEGO AND SRN LEWIS COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44307624 44337586 44317573 44057520 43737512 43417514 43357562 43417617 43447652 43547769 43697824 43957802 44187679 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 02:45:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 21:45:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511250243.jAP2hes7001127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250242 NYZ000-PAZ000-250845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2462 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0842 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NY AND EXTREME NWRN PA NEAR LAKE ERIE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 250242Z - 250845Z SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS FAR WRN NY AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NWRN PA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SURFACE FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN LARGELY DIVERGENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM FORMING DESPITE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. INDEED...00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -30 C WITH 41 KT 0-1 KM MEAN WIND. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.06 IN. ALTHOUGH COLD POCKET ALOFT DOES SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING...IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. BOTH RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL BE THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE THAT WILL OCCUR AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF SRN ONTARIO. THIS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL LAND BREEZE EFFECTS...WILL LIKELY HELP TO CONCENTRATE AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE ERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO NY AREA. ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE... 42028041 41868019 41817960 41897899 42197799 42437783 42697783 42797808 42747909 42747966 42268025 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 06:44:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 01:44:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511250643.jAP6hIG9009859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250642 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250642 IDZ000-WAZ000-ORZ000-251245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL ORE/ERN WA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 250642Z - 251245Z ...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AREAS OF FZRA... A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE OR SFC FRONT. INSPECTION OF THE 25/00Z SOUNDING FROM SPOKANE INDICATES AN INVERSION...WITH A WARM LAYER ABOVE 850MB AND A SHALLOW COLD LAYER NEAR THE SFC WHERE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE INVERSION. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW AN INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM LINCOLN CO SWD TO UMATILLA CO IN NE ORE. THIS MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF FZRA TO AREAS NEAR AND S OF SPOKANE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ADDITIONAL PCPN IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SFC WET BULB ZERO TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN WA AND PORTIONS OF NCNTRL ORE...AND SFC TEMPS WILL FALL TO 32F OR BELOW ONCE PCPN BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/ETAKF SUGGEST FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE SATURATION OCCURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS /ABOVE 2000 FEET/ WILL HAVE SNOW. ..TAYLOR.. 11/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT... 45901845 44311962 44372167 46622105 47892010 48251771 48001700 46211702 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 04:52:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 23:52:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511260451.jAQ4pJF9009468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260450 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260450 TXZ000-260645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2466 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260450Z - 260645Z ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SCNTRL TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN SOUTHWEST TX. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD INTO SCNTRL TX...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. AT THE SFC...ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR DEL RIO EXTENDING EWD TO THE HOUSTON AREA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 60S F WHICH IS HELPING TO RAISE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...88D VAD WIND PROFILES AROUND SAN ANTONIO SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MOST OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELL. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 11/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 27209821 27249895 27499948 27969954 28659952 29779932 30079814 29689730 28279744 27419774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 16:07:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 11:07:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511261606.jAQG6FN8005177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261605 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261605 LAZ000-TXZ000-261830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2467 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SE TX...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261605Z - 261830Z SLGT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN GLS-LFT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OFFSHORE PORT MANSFIELD TX. COMBINED FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY EXTENDS NEWD TOWARD GLS...THEN MARINE/WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED JUST OFFSHORE FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY EWD ACROSS COASTAL WATERS CAMERON/VERMILION/ST MARY/IBERIA PARISHES. LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS ALONG AND BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AFTERNOON. MARINE FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NWD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY MOVE ONSHORE BRIEFLY BEFORE LEADING EDGE OF MCS MOVES THROUGH. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY ALONG AND S OF MARINE FRONT GIVEN AND DEW POINTS MID 60S NOW OBSERVED IN THAT AIR MASS...AND COMBINED WAA/INSOLATION RELATED HEATING OF SFC TEMPS INTO LOW 70S. STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING/ASCENT REMAINS ALONG/BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SO LAPSE RATES OVER MARINE AIR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK....LIMITING MLCAPES UNDER 750 J/KG MOST AREAS. PARCELS N OF WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BECAUSE OF PRONOUNCED STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC...KEEPING SEVERE POTENTIAL LARGELY ALONG/S OF FRONT. DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR -- NOW OPTIMIZED ACROSS UPPER TX COAST PER VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC ANALYSES -- WILL INCREASE WITH TIME FARTHER E ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA AS MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION APCHS. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPH SIZE IS LIMITED BY LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN LOW LEVELS...CELLS MAY ROTATE. SUSTAINED SUPERCELL PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER FOR TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM GULF THAN EWD IN MCS BECAUSE OF SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE MODE. ..EDWARDS.. 11/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 28339545 29049506 29689460 30009391 29929233 29729162 29479147 29319163 29169204 29059304 28789396 28149486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 20:27:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 15:27:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511262026.jAQKQINh022624@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262025 LAZ000-MSZ000-262230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA -- PRIMARILY S OF I-10 CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 874... VALID 262025Z - 262230Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS LINE AT 20Z EXTENDED FROM LCH AREA TO APPROXIMATELY 90 NM S OF COASTAL CENTRAL CAMERON PARISH...THEN SWWD OFFSHORE UPPER TX COAST. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS COASTAL PARISHES. BRIEF TORNADOES AND STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS AND ACCOMPANYING MESOCYCLONES. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG I-10 FROM NW ARA TO NEAR MSY. SFC TEMPS MID-UPPER 70S AND MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO ITS S WILL OFFSET WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD 250-750 J/KG MLCAPES OVER LAND. EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE DRIFTING N ACROSS SERN LA AND COASTAL MS AREAS DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPREADING MARGINAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY INLAND. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN BOUNDARY LAYER S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND -- PRIMARILY OVER GULF...THEN MOVING NNEWD ONSHORE. 0-1 KM SRH 300-350 J/KG IS EVIDENT OVER COASTAL AREAS OF LA BETWEEN MCS BAND AND HUM...AIDED BY BACKED FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS SERN LA...THEY SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED KINEMATIC GRADIENT ENHANCEMENTS APCH AREA. THEREFORE PORTIONS SERN LA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 11/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29439293 29909302 30129319 30289224 30559074 30288980 30078922 28888922 29169204 28869305 29039300 29219297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 02:16:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 21:16:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511270215.jAR2FddW012062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270211 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-270415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2469 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA THROUGH COASTAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270211Z - 270415Z A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST/TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER SERN LA AND SPREADING INTO COASTAL MS. THE THREAT/COVERAGE APPEARS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE A WW IS UNLIKELY. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS SERN LA IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ORLEANS. THE LINE IS MOVING ENEWD AROUND 20 KT. EAST OF THE LINE A FEW STORMS WITH MORE DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS CONTINUE LIFTING NWD. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE N OF A WARM FRONT WHERE A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER EXISTS. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN VERY STRONG ALONG THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE PROBABLY NOT REALIZING THE SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STABLE LAYER. MOREOVER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN LIMITED. STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE BASED TO SUPPORT A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. ..DIAL.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... 29779006 30359002 30798926 30658842 29898830 29738886 29288974 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 08:20:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 03:20:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511270819.jAR8J28S008454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270818 WIZ000-MNZ000-271215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2470 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL MN INTO PARTS OF NWRN-NRN WI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 270818Z - 271215Z FREEZING RAIN..WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH/HOUR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 09-11Z FROM S-N ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN WI. DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LONGER DURATIONS OF FREEZING SHOULD BE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WRN MN...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TO RISE ABOVE 32 F. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. RAPID AND WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN WI TO SERN MN AND NWRN IA SINCE 06Z IS INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION. SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL/NRN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE REACHING VALUES ABOVE 32 F AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO 12Z...STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ABOVE THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN AS PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS NWD. ..PETERS.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 44659630 45479636 45949597 46089336 46149185 46058988 45818882 45248874 44958912 44488997 44519204 44579392 44409591 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 08:26:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 03:26:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511270824.jAR8OpHv010777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270823 COR WIZ000-MNZ000-271215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2470 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN WI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 270823Z - 271215Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED FREEZING RAIN..WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH/HOUR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 09-11Z FROM S-N ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN WI. DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LONGER DURATIONS OF FREEZING SHOULD BE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WRN MN...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TO RISE ABOVE 32 F. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. RAPID AND WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN WI TO SERN MN AND NWRN IA SINCE 06Z IS INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION. SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL/NRN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE REACHING VALUES ABOVE 32 F AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO 12Z...STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ABOVE THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN AS PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS NWD. ..PETERS.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 44659630 45479636 45949597 46089336 46149185 46058988 45818882 45248874 44958912 44488997 44519204 44579392 44409591 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 09:37:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 04:37:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511270936.jAR9a2L9031056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270932 FLZ000-ALZ000-271130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2471 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270932Z - 271130Z THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 12-13Z...IF STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE FOR TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. AT 0915Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SWRN AL...TO THE NORTH OF MOB...SWD TO OFFSHORE NEAR 65 ESE BVE. RADAR DATA SHOWED SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COUPLETS EMBEDDED ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS...WITH LINE MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS TRACKING NEWD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATED A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER INLAND REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SUGGESTING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS SHOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE WHERE THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO INGEST A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING NEAR MOB AND OFFSHORE MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THIS SCENARIO. IF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CAN MOVE ONSHORE OR NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN THERE WOULD BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH NWD EXTENT AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 30278772 30588768 30688741 30768696 30698639 30368633 30098636 29968648 30138753  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 18:01:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 13:01:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511271759.jARHxaWl025937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271758 OKZ000-KSZ000-272000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2472 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CENTRAL AND SERN KS INTO N CENTRAL AND NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271758Z - 272000Z WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FROM PARTS OF THE NERN QUARTER OF OK INTO SERN KS FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF P28 CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS STRONG DYNAMICS MOVE INTO W TX INTO WRN OK. AT 16Z...SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THRU JUST SW OF ICT...PNC...BETWEEN OKC AND SNL TO GLE. VERY STRONG SWLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE DRYLINE INDICATES DRYLINE BULGE WILL PRESS NEWD TOWARDS THE TUL AREA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING NWD AROUND CNU. VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION AS SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AT 45-50 KT AND EXIT REGION OF MID/UPR LEVEL JET OF 115 KT/150 KT RESPECTIVELY...IS NOW INTO SWRN OK. THUS...STRONG DYNAMICS/FRONTAL LIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE ENHANCED ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF ADVANCING DRYLINE BULGE FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BROKEN SQUALL LINE. GIVEN AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE LAYER HELICITY NEAR 250 M2/S2 OVER NERN OK AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4...ISOLATED SHALLOW SUPERCELLS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 35629700 35859700 36139699 36719712 37099731 37329754 37719761 38039686 38149631 37999572 37549525 36949501 36219508 35869522 35449563 35299593 35289634 35319660 35439683 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 19:40:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 14:40:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511271938.jARJccLb015184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271937 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-272330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2473 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/SW NEB CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 271937Z - 272330Z A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WRN KS/SW NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 1 IN/HR SNOW RATES DEVELOPING AMIDST BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEPENING 985 MB SFC LOW AT 19Z. ON NW PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /600-800 MB/ IN PROXIMITY OF WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /INCLUDING PLENTIFUL CG LIGHTNING CNTRL KS INTO SCNTRL NEB/ WILL LEAD TO EWD TRANSITION OF WELL ORGANIZED DEFORMATION SNOW BAND ACROSS SW NEB/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE AKRON CO/GOODLAND KS AREAS AS OF 18Z-19Z. SIMILAR TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...RUC PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGESTS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS REMAINDER OF NW KS/SW NEB THIS AFTERNOON. ONSET OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE IN LOCALES ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...INCLUDING THE MCCOOK NEB/HILL CITY KS AREAS. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING SNOW RATES...RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER AND GOODLAND WSR-88D VAD DATA ALREADY DEPICTING N/NE WINDS OF 50 KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /750M-2 KM LAYER/...A TREND THE 18Z RUC SUGGESTS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 60+ KTS BY 00Z. THESE INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. ..GUYER.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU... 38770208 39260221 40120222 40790189 41210100 41080029 40519984 39799972 38979961 38649990 38320038 38150086 38380174 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 19:51:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 14:51:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511271949.jARJne3J020214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271948 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-272145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2474 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN TX INTO WRN AR AND NWRN LA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271948Z - 272145Z WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY VERIFIES STRONG ASCENT NOW OCCURRING AHEAD OF SURFACE DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS SWD FROM CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX. THERE IS A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS FROM SWRN AR INTO NERN TX WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT AXIS COINCIDING WITH 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS NEWD FROM MAF - S CENTRAL OK ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 100-115 KT MID LEVEL JET. THUS...STRONG JET COUPLING...IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT OVER THIS REGION. AIR MASS IS ALSO DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH CORRESPONDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. EXPECT LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ROUGHLY E CENTRAL OK SWD/SWWD INTO NERN TX IN AREA OF STRONG CONVERGENCE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITHIN/AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES FROM ERN OK/NERN TX INTO WRN AR/NWRN LA. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32599635 33429604 34269584 34929584 35619588 35889592 36309562 36369470 36189369 35579360 34839346 34269346 33599357 32899387 32279451 31709558 31429673 31689680 32099655 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 20:26:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 15:26:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511272024.jARKOasG003788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272023 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-280100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2475 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/FAR SE ND CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 272023Z - 280100Z FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN SD/FAR SE ND THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND 0.05-0.10 IN/HR LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENTS. STEADY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING NWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING KS CYCLONE. COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS ERN SD AND SE ND WEST OF STATIONARY FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH...WITH 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MAINTENENCE OF ELEVATED MELTING LAYER /AROUND 850 MB/ INTO THIS EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...FREEZING RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE ABERDEEN/HURON/MITCHELL SD AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...18Z RUC/09Z SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH APPRECIABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING APPEARS TO BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-29...AND NORTH OF I-90 IN SD. ..GUYER.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44109964 44909953 45649887 46059832 46249768 46249722 46169676 45669653 45019682 44499719 43869762 43589863 43629919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 20:53:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 15:53:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511272051.jARKpdiH017828@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272050 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-272245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2476 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND NERN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 875... VALID 272050Z - 272245Z AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WRN INTO CENTRAL MO. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NNEWD THRU CENTRAL KS. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OF 2.0 TO 3.0 MB/2 HRS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO AS COLD FRONT/SURFACE DRYLINE MOVES NEWD INTO THIS AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS ACROSS MARION... MORRIS AND DICKENSON COUNTIES IN KS JUST E OF THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT. STRONG FORCING IS APPARENT WITH 40-50 KT SWLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE DRYLINE ENHANCING ASCENT IS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR POSING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT... 36489612 36929637 37389675 37709710 38679794 39169759 39359720 39929586 40259499 40179301 39099227 37969220 37299202 36539201 36459359 36439464 36489554 36429598 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 21:31:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 16:31:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511272130.jARLUAZe004442@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272129 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-272330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2477 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NEB/SW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272129Z - 272330Z AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP NWD INTO FAR SE NEB/SW IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL/ISOLD TORNADOES AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. ON FRINGE OF SURGING DRY SLOT...BROKEN BAND OF MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH HISTORY OF TORNADOES/ISOLD LARGE HAIL CONTINUES TO SPREAD E/NE ACROSS ERN KS AT MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE RATHER MARGINAL ACROSS FAR SE NEB/SW IA...ESPECIALLY THE CASE WITH NWD EXTENT...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OWING TO DRY SLOT MAY ALLOW AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT TO BREACH EXISTING KS/MO TORNADO WATCHES INTO FAR SE NEB/SW IA. LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...WITH ISOLD TORNADO POSSIBILITIES ATTRIBUTABLE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. QUESTIONABLE AIRMASS QUALITY WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE NECESSITY FOR A WATCH NWD INTO FAR SE NEB/SW IA AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR. ..GUYER.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40099652 40819661 41619564 41539421 41149308 40699305 40659515 40109573 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 22:42:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 17:42:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511272241.jARMf23j015386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272239 MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2478 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR THROUGH SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272239Z - 280015Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN AR AND SERN MO THIS EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LINE OF DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH CNTRL AR. THIS LINE WILL APPROACH THE ERN PART OF WW 876 BY 00Z. INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE LIMITED WITH ERN EXTENT INTO ERN AR AND SERN MO. HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. A 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...MAINTAINING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF... 33389243 35329235 37539066 36938940 34529051 33219177 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 23:10:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 18:10:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511272308.jARN8gpb001100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272307 ARZ000-TXZ000-280100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2479 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 876... VALID 272307Z - 280100Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MID EVENING. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM W CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL AR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. EARLY THIS EVENING A LINE OF DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EXTENDS FROM POPE COUNTY SWWD THROUGH HOWARD COUNTY IN W CNTRL AR. THE LINE IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE NE AT 30 TO 35 KT. OTHER SEVERE STORMS EXTEND SWWD INTO NERN TX. THE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL AR. THIS REGION IS WITHIN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET THAT IS ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS MOVE THROUGH W CNTRL AND CNTRL AR NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... 33539432 34369422 36059285 35929193 34489237 33349353 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 00:01:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 19:01:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511272359.jARNxe4P028248@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272358 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-280130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN KS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 875...877... VALID 272358Z - 280130Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING INITIALLY OVER WRN MO AND EXTREME NE KS...SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADING INTO CNTRL MO. EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN N CNTRL KS EWD THROUGH NRN MO. DRY LINE HAS SURGED EWD AND EXTENDS FROM NERN KS SWWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN KS. AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS WRN MO. STORMS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS SWRN MO. OTHER SEVERE STORMS PERSIST OVER NWRN MO. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH LEWP/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES. INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MO AND OVER THE ERN PART OF WW 877. HOWEVER...STRONG ASCENT AND COOLING ALOFT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE 100+ KT UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. ..DIAL.. 11/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP... 36529406 38189434 39079494 39679572 40499512 40209303 38769165 36949136 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 01:06:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 20:06:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280105.jAS15D7E002260@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280103 SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-280500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS INTO CNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL/SE SD CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 280103Z - 280500Z BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS NW KS/WCNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR AMIDST VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM NCNTRL NEB INTO SE SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY/OBJECTIVE DIAGNOSTICS DEPICT INTENSE CNTRL PLAINS LOW BECOMING CLOSED/VERTICALLY STACKED THIS EVENING...WITH 984 MB SFC REFLECTION ACROSS CNTRL KS AT 01Z. AS THIS CYCLONE FURTHER DEEPENS THIS EVENING...SNOW BAND WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ORGANIZED ACROSS NW KS/CNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD...ORIENTED PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /600-800 MB/ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PER 21Z RUC/18Z NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...AMPLE UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONSENSUS OF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS NCNTRL NEB INTO SE SD...AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER. NORTH PLATTE/GOODLAND WSR-88D VAD DATA IN CONJUNCTION RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER DATA SAMPLING 50-60 KT N/NW WINDS IN 0.5-2.0 KM LAYER EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THIS BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE /HIGHLIGHTED BY 50+ KT SFC GUSTS AT GOODLAND/. 21Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THESE VERY STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CORRIDOR OF N/NW 850MB WINDS OF 60-65 KTS ACROSS WCNTRL NEB/NW KS COINCIDENT WITH HIGHEST SNOW RATES. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD... 43919983 43279745 41669757 39729935 39119977 39040064 39310123 39960174 41400161 43190134 43780090 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 01:55:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 20:55:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280153.jAS1rTKn030607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280152 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-280615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2482 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SE ND/NW MN CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 280152Z - 280615Z FREEZING RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 0.05-0.10 HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENTS AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM ERN SD INTO SE ND/NW MN...ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM HURON SD TO FARGO ND/DETROIT LAKES MN. LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO MUCH OF MN/ERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON PERIPHERY OF DEEP CNTRL PLAINS CYCLONE. WHERE THIS MOIST AXIS INTERCEPTS A SUFFICIENTLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/WEST OF INVERTED TROUGH...FREEZING RAIN HAS PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH OF ECNTRL/NE SD SINCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS/ POWER OUTAGES REPORTED. A SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ACROSS SE ND INTO FAR WCNTRL MN/NW MN. IN THIS CORRIDOR...00Z RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AN ELEVATED 850 MB WARM/MELTING LAYER OVERSPREADING THE SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SCENARIO IS FURTHER AFFIRMED BY LATEST 21Z SREF PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48399503 48099406 46599571 45499615 44919627 44359680 43879737 43819861 44029921 44749920 45689875 46649793 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 02:12:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 21:12:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280210.jAS2Ab9f009168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280209 ILZ000-MOZ000-280415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2483 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO THROUGH EXTREME WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280209Z - 280415Z ERN MO THROUGH WRN IL IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. STORMS CONTINUE FROM E CNTRL MO SWD INTO SERN MO. STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IN SHANNON AND TEXAS COUNTIES MOVING NEWD AT 30 KT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF WW 877 AFTER 03Z. INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED OVER ERN MO INTO WRN IL. HOWEVER...A 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EWD AS FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET SPREADS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG FORCING MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO DESTABILIZE EWD OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX... 37968986 37449100 39259198 40179220 40149093 38708974 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 02:47:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 21:47:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280245.jAS2jew5029123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280244 KYZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2484 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0844 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN AR...NWRN LA...W TN...WRN KY AND NWRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 876...879... VALID 280244Z - 280415Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AR...NERN TX AND NWRN LA WITH THE BEST THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AR. STORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT WRN TN...WRN KY AND NWRN MS LATER THIS EVENING... AND THESE AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AR MOVING EAST AT AROUND 20 KT. MANY STORMS WITHIN THE LINE HAVE CONSOLIDATED WITH LESS DISCRETE STRUCTURES THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS STILL PERSIST. ACTIVITY EXISTS WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE VERY LARGE WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE. FARTHER EAST...NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN AR WITHIN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER IN THIS REGION...AND VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING WAS INDICATED. HOWEVER...WITH TIME SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...THESE STORMS MAY TAKE LONGER TO BECOME ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG... 34069064 36948910 36818803 35418854 34158939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 05:23:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 00:23:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280522.jAS5MN4e018697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280521 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280521 ILZ000-MOZ000-280645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO THROUGH WRN AND SRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 880... VALID 280521Z - 280645Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO PERSIST ACROSS ERN MO INTO WRN IL. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO IL. ANOTHER WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS SPREADING THROUGH ERN MO INTO EXTREME WRN IL. SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE WITHIN THIS AREA OF STORMS. THE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH OBSERVED SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED. WHILE THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE SEVERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS AT THE SURFACE OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...IT COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. A STRONG 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THE ACCOMPANYING THETA-E ADVECTION SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE NEWD WITH TIME. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX... 37279096 39239123 39799079 39758931 38848882 37448921 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 06:45:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 01:45:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280644.jAS6iKOS018912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280643 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280643 TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-280745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2486 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SERN MO...WRN TN...NWRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 879... VALID 280643Z - 280745Z THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NEWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY ATTM...THIS INCLUDES THE MEM AREA. WW 879 CAN BE CLEARED IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE WATCH. VWP DATA INDICATES EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WITH BLM PROFILER INDICATING 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 550 M2/S2 AND 60 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE DISCRETE NATURE AND THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ROTATION COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER CORES... ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH ANY DISCRETE CORE...DESPITE LATEST CG LIGHTNING AND IR CLOUD TOP IMAGES SUGGESTING A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND TO BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. ..EVANS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33909093 36029065 37009035 37218926 36768892 33868989 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 07:33:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 02:33:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280732.jAS7WAhN015516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280731 FLZ000-ALZ000-280900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280731Z - 280900Z TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF CONVECTION CONTINUES INTENSIFYING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN THE LAST HOUR ALONG AND JUST OFF THE SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST WITHIN BROAD REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WAA. AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT DIMINISHING CAP...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THIS GENERAL REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BOTH RUC AND NAM GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THEREFORE...WW BEING CONSIDERED ATTM. ..EVANS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30288821 31938846 31868518 29768506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 07:38:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 02:38:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280736.jAS7aqXK017105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280735 MEZ000-NHZ000-281130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2488 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MAINE CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 280735Z - 281130Z PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES AT OR EXCEEDING 0.05 INCHES PER 3 HR EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS SWRN AND SRN ME... INLAND OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AND NRN ME EXPECTED TO START AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET...THEN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND NWRN ME BY 10-12Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES SHOULD BE AROUND 0.05 INCHES PER 3 HR TIME FRAME. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF ME...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. 05Z RUC SHOWED THIS SUB-FREEZING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH 12-14Z...AS STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAINTAINS A WARM LAYER ATOP THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 05Z RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THE INITIAL DRY AIR LOCATED IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS PER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WILL SATURATE OVERNIGHT...GIVEN MOISTENING PROCESSES EXPECTED THROUGH UVVS AND ADVECTION. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER SRN ME FROM OXFORD TO YORK COUNTIES SEWD TO INLAND PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST ME SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. FARTHER N INTO CENTRAL AND NRN ME...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO SATURATE WHICH SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SNOW/SLEET MIX. MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL/NWRN ME IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BY 12-14Z. ..PETERS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45196741 44676858 44186982 43997030 44137083 44687103 45317104 46277023 47216966 47516916 47416817 47046759 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 07:39:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 02:39:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280738.jAS7cFuv017875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280731 FLZ000-ALZ000-280900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280731Z - 280900Z TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF CONVECTION CONTINUES INTENSIFYING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN THE LAST HOUR ALONG AND JUST OFF THE SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST WITHIN BROAD REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WAA. AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT DIMINISHING CAP...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THIS GENERAL REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BOTH RUC AND NAM GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THEREFORE...WW BEING CONSIDERED ATTM. ..EVANS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30288821 31938846 31868518 29768506  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 07:43:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 02:43:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280742.jAS7g3uo019009@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280735 MEZ000-NHZ000-281130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2488 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MAINE CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 280735Z - 281130Z PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES AT OR EXCEEDING 0.05 INCHES PER 3 HR EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS SWRN AND SRN ME... INLAND OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AND NRN ME EXPECTED TO START AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET...THEN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND NWRN ME BY 10-12Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES SHOULD BE AROUND 0.05 INCHES PER 3 HR TIME FRAME. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF ME...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. 05Z RUC SHOWED THIS SUB-FREEZING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH 12-14Z...AS STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAINTAINS A WARM LAYER ATOP THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 05Z RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THE INITIAL DRY AIR LOCATED IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS PER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WILL SATURATE OVERNIGHT...GIVEN MOISTENING PROCESSES EXPECTED THROUGH UVVS AND ADVECTION. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER SRN ME FROM OXFORD TO YORK COUNTIES SEWD TO INLAND PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST ME SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. FARTHER N INTO CENTRAL AND NRN ME...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO SATURATE WHICH SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SNOW/SLEET MIX. MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL/NWRN ME IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BY 12-14Z. ..PETERS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45196741 44676858 44186982 43997030 44137083 44687103 45317104 46277023 47216966 47516916 47416817 47046759  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 08:43:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 03:43:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280841.jAS8fXOX006355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280840 MSZ000-LAZ000-281015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA AND PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 882... VALID 280840Z - 281015Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS NERN LA INTO WRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS. REGIONAL RADARS AT 0830Z INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...PER NUMEROUS SHEAR COUPLETS...EXTENDING FROM SUNFLOWER COUNTY MS SSWWD TO FAR NERN LA. DESPITE MUCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MS. 0-3 KM SRH VALUES REMAIN VERY STRONG AT 300-550 M2/S2...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31349212 31839169 32709123 33829068 33808871 31348981 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 09:30:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 04:30:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511280929.jAS9TKVl031992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280928 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-281030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2490 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 881... VALID 280928Z - 281030Z DESPITE A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 881. AT 09Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 250 J/KG/ ACROSS WW 881. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A MARKED DECREASE IN CG LIGHTNING SINCE ABOUT 08Z FROM SRN IL TO NRN MS...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF THE DECREASING INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING ALOFT SHIFTING NEWD INTO IL AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN INSTABILITY/LIGHTNING GENERATION...DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SRH VALUES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS WW 881. INDIVIDUAL EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS...WITH SHEAR COUPLETS...ARE MOVING NNE AT 50-60 KT ACROSS SRN IL AND NEWD AT 50 KT ACROSS NRN MS INTO WRN TN. ..PETERS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX... 33849042 35788934 36918953 39958922 39858723 38498710 36688712 33758827 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 10:45:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 05:45:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281044.jASAi4Hd015201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281042 LAZ000-MSZ000-281215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2491 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN LA AND FAR SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281042Z - 281215Z THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS...TO THE SOUTH OF WW 882. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AT 10Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION... WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY PER LIGHTNING DATA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FOR THIS REGION INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS /MUCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY NORMAL TO THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE SHEAR ORIENTATION SUGGESTS DISCRETE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE... WHILE STRONG EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES UP TO 300-400 M2/S2 SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS INLAND ACROSS LA TO SRN MS ARE ELEVATED...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RUC ALSO INDICATED A GREATER THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD OCCUR EWD INTO SERN LA/SERN MS LATER THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION. ..PETERS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29569260 31359165 31348959 29268968 28999079 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 12:25:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 07:25:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281223.jASCNtIX004039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281219 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-281745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2492 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NE/ERN SD/MN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/FREEZING RAIN VALID 281219Z - 281745Z DEEP...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SERN NE TO WRN IA BY 18 UTC. SYSTEM IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH SURFACE LOW PREDICTED TO REACH SRN MN BORDER BY 18 UTC...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING LARGEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER NCNTRL IA. 10 UTC RUC FORECAST SHOWS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/TROWAL AXIS ON THE 297K SURFACE TO SHARPEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SNOW RATES EXCEED 1"/HOUR. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM CNTRL SD/CNTRL NE INTO ERN SECTIONS OF THESE STATES AS NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 30 TO 40 MPH PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE REPOSITIONING OF CYCLONE ALSO RESULTS IN COOLING OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN CNTRL AND NRN MN. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE STEADILY DURING THE MORNING REACHING 32F IN NCNTRL MN BY 13 UTC AND BY 16 UTC IN SCNTRL MN...AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STILL A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF WARM AIR CENTERED AROUND 850 MB LEVEL WITH LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG BAROCLINIC TROUGH AXIS WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN BANDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05" TO 0.10" PER HOUR POSSIBLE THROUGH 18 UTC. SEE THE LATEST HPC FORECASTS FOR PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND HEAVY FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AND INFORMATION EXTENDING BEYOND 18 UTC. ..BRIGHT.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 44099930 45369804 46549685 47779500 48069332 47969133 47799085 47259114 46799215 45909351 44949452 43839546 42169696 41419792 41259917 41859980 42530013 43379991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 12:53:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 07:53:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281251.jASCpu90018135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281251 CAZ000-281745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 281251Z - 281745Z SNOW RATES AT OR ABOVE 1" PER HOUR WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 15 AND 18 UTC AS AREA OF PRECIPITATION CLEARLY VISIBLE ON IR IMAGERY MOVES ONSHORE THIS MORNING. JET STREAK AROUND 65 KTS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REACHES THE NRN CA COAST AROUND 17 UTC PER 11 UTC RUC FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WITH 12 UTC TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 32F AT YREKA TO 42F AT REDDING. DEEP SATURATED AIR MASS WITH UPWARD MOTION THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL AID THE SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 2500 FEET MSL AND LOWER TO ABOUT 2000 FEET MSL BY 18 UTC AS SLIGHT WET BULB COOLING OCCURS AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY INCREASES. ISOLATED HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEYS COULD EXPERIENCE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN OR SNOW. THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE BY 18 UTC WILL BE SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ABOVE 2000 FEET MSL. ..BRIGHT.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... 41052328 41702267 41652199 40772108 40142071 39842103 40202217 40632269 40582323 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 13:12:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 08:12:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281311.jASDBF7S029975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281310 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-281445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2494 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SERN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 883... VALID 281310Z - 281445Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 883 IN THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SERN AL. AT 13Z...REGIONAL RADARS AND LIGHTNING DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INLAND OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/SERN AL TO SWRN/WRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED WITHIN PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NNEWD PER IR IMAGERY. 12Z SOUNDING AT TLH SUGGESTS THESE STORMS...AT LEAST OVER LAND...ARE LIKELY ELEVATED. THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO AID IN WEAKENING THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. STRONG SRH VALUES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 29888692 31048681 31938641 31728506 30678489 29318500 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 15:31:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 10:31:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281530.jASFUCtS020121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281529 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-281730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS INTO WRN AND CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281529Z - 281730Z WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR. SQUALL LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NERN MS SSWWD INTO SERN LA. HEATING/WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. ADJUSTING THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM BAX WITH THESE NUMBERS GIVES SBCAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 2000 J/KG INDICATING THE RAPID DESTABILIZATION. ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STRONG WIND PROFILES PRESENT ACROSS THE SERN STATES FROM CENTRAL MS THRU AL WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 50-65 KT ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING THIS...THE INSTABILITY AND THAT 0-1KM SHEAR IS 300-350 M2/S2...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES EITHER WITH DISCRETE CELLS FORMING WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE OR WITH CELLS EMBEDDED AND INCREASING WITHIN THE LINE. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30288934 30628975 31108977 32198923 33058878 33778813 34298773 34348693 33828643 33208648 32078639 31438674 30818706 30398778 30218900 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 16:55:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 11:55:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281653.jASGrZ4H030791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281652 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281652Z - 281845Z WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO AREA WHERE HEATING/WARM ADVECTION IS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. STRONG WIND FIELDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INDICATING SOME LIMITS TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...BUT AS COOLING ALOFT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE PROCESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. THUS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CELLS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE CREATING SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH 0-1KM HELICITY AROUND 350 M2/S2...OR FOR SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN... 35018644 35048736 35638742 37038686 38418662 38688568 38488513 38378454 38208419 37778433 37098452 36408511 35588540 35028542 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 17:21:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 12:21:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281719.jASHJTVq020984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281718 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INDIANA/WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281718Z - 281845Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO/ MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN INDIANA INTO OH. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD AT AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS INDIANA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY EXISTS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY ACROSS KY/WRN OH MAY ALLOW FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE VERY STRONG...WITH 50+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PER 12Z RAOBS/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD DATA. ACCORDINGLY...PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT ATTRIBUTABLE TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH 0-1 KM SRH OF 500+ M2/S2 PER 12Z ILN RAOB/LATEST VAD DATA. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 41648518 41408303 40148287 39198343 39008455 39098590 40428580 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 17:37:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 12:37:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281736.jASHaFYX003381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281652 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281652Z - 281845Z WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO AREA WHERE HEATING/WARM ADVECTION IS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. STRONG WIND FIELDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INDICATING SOME LIMITS TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...BUT AS COOLING ALOFT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE PROCESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. THUS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CELLS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE CREATING SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH 0-1KM HELICITY AROUND 350 M2/S2...OR FOR SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN... 35018644 35048736 35638742 37038686 38418662 38688568 38488513 38378454 38208419 37778433 37098452 36408511 35588540 35028542  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 18:00:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 13:00:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281759.jASHx23H024171@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281718 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INDIANA/WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281718Z - 281845Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO/ MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN INDIANA INTO OH. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD AT AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS INDIANA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY EXISTS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY ACROSS KY/WRN OH MAY ALLOW FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE VERY STRONG...WITH 50+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PER 12Z RAOBS/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD DATA. ACCORDINGLY...PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT ATTRIBUTABLE TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH 0-1 KM SRH OF 500+ M2/S2 PER 12Z ILN RAOB/LATEST VAD DATA. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 41648518 41408303 40148287 39198343 39008455 39098590 40428580  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 19:02:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 14:02:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281901.jASJ11B0011479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281859 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-290000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2498 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEB/ERN SD/SE ND INTO WRN/NRN MN CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 281859Z - 290000Z HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM NE NEB/ERN SD INTO SE ND AND PORTIONS OF WCNTRL MN. BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/NCNTRL MN. ON N/NW PERIPHERY OF OCCLUDING IA CYCLONE /983 MB AT 18Z/...SW-NE ORIENTED AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL INTENSIFY/SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN SD INTO WCNTRL MN...ORIENTED PARALLEL TO 650MB-850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND AT TERMINUS OF TROWAL PER 12Z MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/CROSS SECTIONS. AMPLE UVVS THROUGH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL PROMOTE SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER. COINCIDENT WITH THIS SNOWFALL...VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER CONDITIONS...WITH 50-70 KT WINDS COMMON IN THE LOWEST FEW KM OF REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VAD DATA. ACROSS WCNTRL/NCNTRL MN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS FROM INL/ABR...15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ABOVE SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. AFFIRMED BY 09Z SREF PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS...THIS SUGGESTS POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/NCNTRL MN...INCLUDING A DETROIT LAKES-BEMIDJI-INTERNATIONAL FALLS CORRIDOR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE ICE ACCUMULATION. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 48299238 46989375 44599625 43129741 42439797 42379973 43210056 44130010 44499993 46429780 48009577 48769433 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 19:21:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 14:21:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511281920.jASJKDOD028058@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281919 ALZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-TNZ000-282115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 884... VALID 281919Z - 282115Z COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD INTO N CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL AL. INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM MOBILE BAY NNEWD THRU BHM WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG BETWEEN 55 AND 65 KT. 18Z RAOB DATA FRM KBMX INDICATED MARGINAL SBCAPE AROUND 750 J/KG WITH STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THUS...WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING AT 50-60 KT...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... 30318826 30948823 32188815 33258813 34018810 34708780 34988738 34968698 35008604 34938548 34558551 34118548 33558554 32928560 32198553 31558559 30948569 30438569 30268574 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 20:20:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 15:20:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511282018.jASKIWjZ020290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282017 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-282145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/CNTRL KY/EXTREME SE INDIANA INTO ERN KY/ERN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 885... VALID 282017Z - 282145Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 885 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN...WITH AN ISOLD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NECESSITY OF ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE INTO ERN TN/ERN KY. RUC DIAGNOSTICS/WSR-88D VADS CONTINUE TO DEPICT RATHER STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD IN PLACE ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE ADVANCING ACROSS CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN...WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 400-600 M2/S2. HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT RADAR CHARACTER OF CONVECTIVE LINE AND WEAK INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM /REF 18Z BNA RAOB/...SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY DECREASE/REMAIN MARGINAL WITH EWD TRANSITION TOWARD ERN KY/ERN TN. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE INTO ERN KY/ERN TN. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN... 38678541 38758466 38408331 36688366 35658424 35168498 34978596 35078662 35708658 36638648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 22:42:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 17:42:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511282240.jASMeTLW013232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282239 ALZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-282345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2501 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 884... VALID 282239Z - 282345Z TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL AL IN TORNADO WATCH 884...NAMELY IN A CORRIDOR FROM BIRMINGHAM TO NEAR MONTGOMERY. STRONG MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA. WITHIN WEDGE OF WARM/UNSTABLE AIR...ADDITIONAL TSTMS WEST OF THE SELMA AL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND PROGRESS NEWD. THESE STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH/CROSS EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL WEDGE ARCING NW-SW FROM CNTRL AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED TO SELY...WITH 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 300 M2/S2 OR GREATER BEING VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION/TORNADOES. ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... 34788642 34888551 32178553 30418590 30528715 31548729 32048779 32428784 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 00:16:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 19:16:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290014.jAT0EUXG013982@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290013 FLZ000-GAZ000-290145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2502 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290013Z - 290145Z PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONLY A LIMITED THREAT INLAND. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS OFFSHORE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETREAT NWD. EARLY THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE N CNTRL FL PENINSULA NWWD THROUGH THE NERN GULF JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FL PANHANDLE THEN INLAND OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT ONLY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY. CELLS WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AND PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO AS THEY CROSS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NERN GULF WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND. UNLESS THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT NWD...THE INLAND SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE... 29398332 29338435 30328546 30888524 30208339 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 01:12:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 20:12:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290111.jAT1BAJ9015393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290110 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2503 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SE ND AND WRN/NRN MN CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 290110Z - 290545Z BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM ERN SD/SE ND INTO NW MN THIS EVENING. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER WILL BE MOST PROLONGED THROUGH 06Z ACROSS SE ND INTO PORTIONS OF NW/NCNTRL MN...WHILE SNOW RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS ERN SD. VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE OVER NRN IA/SRN MN CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH 985 MB SFC LOW CENTERED OVER SE MN AT 01Z. ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...DEFORMATION AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL REMAIN FOCUSED THIS EVENING BETWEEN MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT AND TROWAL /TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT/ AIRSTREAM ARCING ACROSS NRN MN/FAR ERN DAKOTAS PER LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/CROSS SECTIONS. MAINTENENCE OF EXISTING RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW ACROSS NW/NCNTRL MN INTO ERN SD APPEARS LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW RATES GRADUALLY DECREASING ON THE SRN EXTENT ACROSS ERN SD. SIMILAR TO 00Z ABERDEEN RAOB...RUC FCST SOUNDINGS FOR SE ND INTO NW/NCNTRL MN FEATURE DEEPLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THIS EVENING...WITH AMPLE UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER BANDS. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS...WITH ERN DAKOTAS WSR-88D VAD DATA/00Z ABERDEEN RAOB SAMPLING 50-70 KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KM. ..GUYER.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC... AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48859460 48109224 46819409 45499604 43689654 43529717 43809812 44759887 46509808 48319615 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 01:51:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 20:51:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290150.jAT1oLXa007370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290149 GAZ000-ALZ000-290315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN AL THROUGH EXTREME WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 886... VALID 290149Z - 290315Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3 HOURS MAINLY FROM S CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL AL. A MORE LIMITED THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO EXTREME WRN GA AFTER 02Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN WRN GA AS STORMS APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW 886. A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF CLEBURNE COUNTY IN ERN AL SWWD TO MONROE COUNTY IN SRN AL. THE LINE CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE NEWD AT AROUND 35 KT. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN AL. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN A NARROW AXIS FROM SRN THROUGH E CNTRL AL...AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWWD THROUGH S CNTRL AL WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE NEWD AND CROSS THIS BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY ARE ENHANCED. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY FROM S CNTRL THROUGH ERN AL. INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE MARGINAL AND ELEVATED FARTHER EAST INTO GA...AND THIS COULD SERVE TO LIMIT THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TORNADO THREAT. ..DIAL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31408584 31908703 33408607 33688521 33058491 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 04:31:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 23:31:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290429.jAT4Td6E009462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290428 GAZ000-ALZ000-290530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL AL AND WRN AND NW GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 886... VALID 290428Z - 290530Z TORNADO WATCH 886 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. A LIMITED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST BEYOND 05Z ACROSS SRN AND E CNTRL AL THROUGH WRN AND NW GA. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME. LATE THIS EVENING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FROM NWRN GA SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL AL. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH ERN AL AND INTO WRN GA THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ACROSS ERN AL AND WRN GA N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWWD INTO SRN AL. SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR A BRIEF TORNADO WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER...MOST STORMS ARE PROBABLY BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. ..DIAL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31378602 31988641 34438469 33888414 31668509 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 04:44:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 23:44:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290442.jAT4gvwl017020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290442 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290441 FLZ000-GAZ000-290615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290441Z - 290615Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW OVER THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. LATE THIS EVENING...A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE NRN FL PENINSULA NWWD ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN GULF. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NERN GULF AND ARE TRAINING NEWD. THE STORMS APPEAR TO TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY CROSS THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE DEEPER INTO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THIS FEATURE. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED NWD LAST COUPLE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EVENTUALLY STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY INLAND AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE... 29978338 29748412 30308461 30938387 30638342 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 04:50:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 23:50:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290448.jAT4mfra019755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290428 GAZ000-ALZ000-290530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL AL AND WRN AND NW GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 886... VALID 290428Z - 290530Z TORNADO WATCH 886 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. A LIMITED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST BEYOND 05Z ACROSS SRN AND E CNTRL AL THROUGH WRN AND NW GA. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME. LATE THIS EVENING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FROM NWRN GA SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL AL. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH ERN AL AND INTO WRN GA THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ACROSS ERN AL AND WRN GA N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWWD INTO SRN AL. SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR A BRIEF TORNADO WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER...MOST STORMS ARE PROBABLY BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. ..DIAL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31378602 31988641 34438469 33888414 31668509  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 04:59:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 23:59:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511290458.jAT4wLsL026915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290442 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290441 FLZ000-GAZ000-290615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290441Z - 290615Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW OVER THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. LATE THIS EVENING...A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE NRN FL PENINSULA NWWD ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN GULF. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NERN GULF AND ARE TRAINING NEWD. THE STORMS APPEAR TO TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY CROSS THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE DEEPER INTO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THIS FEATURE. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED NWD LAST COUPLE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EVENTUALLY STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY INLAND AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE... 29978338 29748412 30308461 30938387 30638342  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 10:50:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 05:50:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511291049.jATAnAxx016271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291048 FLZ000-291245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0448 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF THE WRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291048Z - 291245Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS...NOW OVER THE ERN GULF...CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE WRN FL COAST THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF LOOP CURRENT HAVE BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...GIVEN AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAINTAINING STRONG INSTABILITY. 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THIS AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES/SUPERCELLS PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA. AIR MASS ALONG THE COAST OF WRN FL IS MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY PER WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE INLAND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SURFACE BASED...AND THUS LIKELY PRECLUDE AN INLAND SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29228345 29498335 29588288 29098243 28398220 27818218 26938175 26308158 26128202 27168280 28168322 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 10:53:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 05:53:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511291051.jATAprni017005@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291050 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-291215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2508 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SC / GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291050Z - 291215Z WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. IF THIS OCCURS...A TORNADO WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR 68-72 F. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SURFACE BASED CAPE EXISTS WITH LITTLE CIN...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN GA / NRN FL WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ALONG DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND WITH UPPER SUPPORT FOR ASCENT LIFTING N OF THE AREA...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE. STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP RELATIVELY STRONG CORES WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT ROTATION AND COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2. GREATEST THREAT FOR EITHER DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADO WOULD BE WITHIN SURFACE THETA-E AXIS. ..JEWELL.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30778436 32098366 33258318 34008214 34608102 34538005 33827977 32708075 31738122 30128141 30258302 30338428 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 12:58:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 07:58:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511291257.jATCvPcY002812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291256 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-291500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2509 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC/PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL NC TO SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291256Z - 291500Z AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT...POTENTIALLY BY MID MORNING... FROM SWRN/SRN VA SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NC AND MUCH OF SC. LIGHTNING DATA DURING THE LAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A DECREASING TREND IN OVERALL CG LIGHTNING ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN. HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND FIELDS/SHEAR ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK ATTM...THUS SUPPORTING THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING COVERAGE...12Z GSO SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER SC RESULTS IN SBCAPE UP TO 1400 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. DESPITE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING PER CLOUDINESS...SMALL RISES IN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE VALUES PER ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 34058235 35548198 37008144 37378029 37017905 35577908 33897956 33078043 33248175 33748231 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 19:11:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 14:11:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511291910.jATJABdD016218@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291909 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291909 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-292115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2510 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...NC...VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291909Z - 292115Z AREAS EAST OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SRN VA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO IF STORM INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A NARROW LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM 30W GSO TO 10N CAE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGION WAS SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA THROUGH EVENING. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN ABOUT 500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS FOR STRENGTHENING FORCING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50KT ARE EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY COMPENSATE FOR THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MIGHT SUPPORT A GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING LINE OF TSTMS MOVING EAST FROM THE PIEDMONT AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST VWP DATA WAS DEPICTING MODEST SELY SFC FLOW TOPPED BY 50KT SLY FLOW AT 1KM. RESULTING LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR MESOCYCLONES. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LINE SEGMENTS AND SHORT-LIVED MESOCYCLONES WITH DAMAGING WINDS COULD EVOLVE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 33798128 35388094 37518021 38937859 38297756 36937638 35407550 34507673 32708018 32778111 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 23:55:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 18:55:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511292353.jATNrx6g008180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292353 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-300100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2511 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MD AND SRN PA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 887... VALID 292353Z - 300100Z WIND DAMAGE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MD AND SRN PA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A SMALL MESOLOW APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AND AT 2340Z WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER ABOUT 15 NE HGR. THIS SYSTEM AND BOW ECHO EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ARE MOVING NEWD AT 45 TO 50 KT. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE THIS SYSTEM AT 003OZ FROM NEAR CXY TO NORTH OF DCA. ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE IS MOST LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...1 KM SRH NEAR 500 M**2/S**2...INDICATES A TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MESOLOW. ..IMY.. 11/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX... 39797781 40357681 40217653 39317669 39027702 39147772 39467748 39757748 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 01:22:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 20:22:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511300120.jAU1KwEX029838@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300120 VAZ000-MDZ000-300215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2512 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND SRN MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 887... VALID 300120Z - 300215Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT HOUR...ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA AND SRN MD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH WRN VA. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS WEST OF A DCA-RDU LINE. A MESOLOW DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE FRONT AND HAS SINCE WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO SERN PA. ANOTHER MESOLOW APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AND WAS LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SW OF DCA. AS THIS SYSTEM RACES NEWD AT 40 KT...A BOW ECHO EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. THE EVENING DCA SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE LIFTED PARCELS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT THE WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FOR THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS TO CONTINUE REACHING THE SURFACE. ..IMY.. 11/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... 37427729 37817721 38397733 38627702 38387652 37417646 37167726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 02:44:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 21:44:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200511300242.jAU2gqhK015345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300241 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-300345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2513 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0841 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA...SRN MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 887... VALID 300241Z - 300345Z SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING FROM WV INTO PA AND MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS LIFTING NWD INTO PA AND NY. ALTHOUGH A NARROW LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SE OF DCA TO EAST OF RWI...THE WEAKENING FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN THE STORM INTENSITIES TO DECREASE DURING THE PAST HOUR. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WIND SEVERE WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE...EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...IT LIKELY WILL BECOME DIFFICULT FOR THE STRONG/SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. ..IMY.. 11/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... 36557747 38007724 38837661 39337618 38647550 38357469 36507548 35967625 35737749 35797797 WWWW