[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312346 
TXZ000-OKZ000-010115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL OK...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363...

VALID 312346Z - 010115Z

WEAKLY ORGANIZED TSTMS IN LINES AND CLUSTERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SWRN OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NWRN
TX THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE HAIL AND POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS.

LATEST RADAR AND SFC ANALYSIS DATA WAS SHOWING SEVERAL LINES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL OK APPEARS TO HAVE
OUTRUN THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS ALONG AN OUTFLOW FROM ERN OKLAHOMA
COUNTY SWWD INTO NERN GRADY COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
INTERSECT THE GRADY COUNTY STORM CLUSTER...AND EXTENDS EWD ACROSS
CLEVELAND COUNTY. 25-30KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER TLX VWP AND PRC
PROFILER WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN
ORGANIZATION WITH CELL/BOUNDARY MERGERS POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION GIVEN MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.

GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY BE WITH THE LINE OF
STORMS FROM WILBARGER COUNTY IN NW TX EWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER TO
TILLMAN COUNTY OK. MOST INTENSE PART OF THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE
NEAR AN OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
STOUT UPDRAFTS AS IT SPREADS SEWD THIS EVENING. MOIST LOW LEVEL
INFLOW INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW
HAIL AND WIND EVENTS.

..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

35219998 35479686 33749684 33529996 

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