[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312258 
FLZ000-GAZ000-010100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 312258Z - 010100Z

ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY TSTMS
INCREASING ACROSS NRN FL THIS EVENING. CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED.

TSTM HAVE INCREASED ALONG WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
ACROSS LEVY...ALACHUA...AND DUVAL COUNTIES. WHILE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE AREA IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...THIS CONDITION MAY BE OFFSET
BY STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH APPROACH OF BROAD GULF OF
MEXICO UPPER LOW. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN A VERY MOIST/LOW LFC
ENVIRONMENT WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW IS TOPPED BY 35 KT WSWLY
FLOW. THUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION
AND PERSISTENCE. ONE OF TWO OF THESE STORMS TRACKING ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS
OVER THE NEXT COULD OF HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

31128155 30218353 29778360 29138285 29698206 29958126