[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 302245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302245 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-310045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN PARTS OF THE OK/TX
PNHDLS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 357...

VALID 302245Z - 310045Z

VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MOIST
AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SEVERE
TSTMS ACROSS SERN CO INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS APPEAR FAVORABLE OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM HUERFANO AND
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES IN SERN CO SSEWD ACROSS COLFAX AND UNION
COUNTIES IN NERN NM...AND FURTHER EAST INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OK AND
TX PNHDLS.

STRONG INSTABILITY WAS STREAMING NWWD ACROSS A COLD FRONT SITUATED
ACROSS SERN CO. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 45KT WAS
TRAVERSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF MOIST SELY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...AND INCREASING WSWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS ROTATING TSTMS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENCOUNTERED BY STORM UPDRAFTS
CROSSING THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN
TORNADOES. EVEN THOUGH TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY ONCE
CELLS MOVE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...MAGNITUDE OF
FORCING...EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

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